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Improve My EXIT

  • #21
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:42pm Jan 31, 2013 5:42pm
Anyway.... IMAGINE THAT... Mr. One Minute Chart formations banned me from his thread
Can't take the heat

If he can't take the heat he's unreliable under pressure.

You're cool Turveyed.

Do whatever

Everyone agrees to disagree except those who ain't got the kahunas not to ban someone because they have a difference of opinion


comprende'
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #22
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:49pm Jan 31, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
Anyway.... IMAGINE THAT... Mr. One Minute Chart formations banned me from his thread
Can't take the heat

If he can't take the heat he's unreliable under pressure.

You're cool Turveyed.

Do whatever

Everyone agrees to disagree except those who ain't got the kahunas not to ban someone because they have a difference of opinion


comprende'

Don't blame him, negativity doesn't do anyone any good, your opinion is merely that your opinion of something, doesn't mean it's right.

90% confidence, hesitate on M1 to take a setup and the setup is gone, then you'll revenge trade and take a loss.

He's not going to change his opinion, you aren't going to change yours, so why bother to have the conversation really.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #23
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:50pm Jan 31, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting Turveyd
Lack of time / personal issues ruining my focus so far this year,

BTW.... that apology MUST have been in a moment of weakness

damn me


Seriously... I don't care. Just passing through.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #24
  • Feb 1, 2013 6:24am Feb 1, 2013 6:24am
@ bull.bear,

Quoting ~bull.bear~
When market is trending, stochastic acts as pull back entry and high point exit; when market is ranging, stochastic acts as SR entry and exit within the range. When market is changing from trending to ranging or vice versa, the signal is incorrect.
Can you explain this in more detail? Do you have any statistical proof for the statement? Or a setting/parameter you can suggest I start a research on using stoch?

Quoting ~bull.bear~
No. I don't trade by using stochastic. I have my own way. Just to suggest this is a good indicator for scalping. Stochastic is more sensitive than RSI.

How? Why? Any chart to prove this?


@ Simons447

Quoting Simons447
Why don't you just use a trailing stop loss and ride the trend as long as you can. You will never get the optimum exit but you might get a lot more than 24 pips.
Despite the fact I trade in the direction of the trend, I scalp the trend/in that direction. I have no intention of leaving any trade overnight (don't want to start thinking about trades at night). So, long term can't come in here.

@ bull.bear,

Quoting GnarlyPips
Well, the question was directed at hefhem, however, I'll ask you this. Why is the stochastic good for scalping? What does it show you? Are you just using the logic "price bounced off my imaginary line"?
second this.


@ Tradedly,


Quoting Tradedly
I think even as a scalper there is potential value in breaking exits.
OK. Can you elaborate?

Quoting Tradedly
I can't speak to the history of your trades, but what % of trades go your way? What % of trades extend beyond your goal target?
Many if not most go my way. Few get closed out at loss of 3-6pips while some too get closed out at BE.

Quoting Tradedly
Imo, the market does one of four things:

(Assume this is EURUSD we're talking about. Ranges will vary depending on pair or stock, of course.)

1) Test zone and hover in 10 - 30 pip range and then drift in one direction or the other
2) Touch zone and immediately go for you 70 pips +
3) Touch zone and go through it like butter for 70 pips + because a ton of breakout orders propel existent momentum
4) Test zone, and get really volatile with a 20 - 50 pip range and then drift in one direction or the other

Frequency of occurence:

1 happens ~ 40%...
Are you talking about SR here cos I already said I don't believe in this anymore. For every number of SR broken, you can find equal amount respected.

Quoting Tradedly
I break exits based on profit ratios. One entry has three exits (if +) and one exit (if -). My risk is fixed. I can only lose so much per entry. My profit is varied, but the system is designed to protect equity and get me into a free trade environ as quickly as possible.
The system I use has emergency exit, no fixed exit (exit based on if x=y sort of thing) and enter "in the direction of the trend" if (a=b).

Risk is fixed. Not more than 5% of balance.

Quoting Tradedly
If I'm boring you, just let me know. ;-)
Nope.

@Turveyed

Quoting Turveyd
Very very similar to how i trade EJ is perfect..

Looks like its not broken dont fix to me.
I want to see if the system is at its best else, push the system to be better.
  • #25
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:21am Feb 1, 2013 7:21am
I trade similar to you. For me my exit is based on measuring momentum. At present I am using the TSI for this. Think we have a mutual friend in mahdiquandt. Have some interesting articles on measuring momentum that have shaped my thinking on this issue. PM me if you are interested.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #26
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:07am Feb 1, 2013 9:07am
Quoting hefhem911
@ bull.bear,

Can you explain this in more detail? Do you have any statistical proof for the statement? Or a setting/parameter you can suggest I start a research on using stoch?

How? Why? Any chart to prove this?

I don't remember the setting (Optimal value), but i could roughly provide you an example with the chart here. 2 Stoch here, top is refer to 1 hour trend (60,15,15) and bottom is refer to 2 hour trend (120,15,15).

The reason i don't use this because i don't feel comfortable with it and i only like trend indicator. Maybe this indicator could be useful if you know it more. Of course, it cannot be used alone.
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  • #27
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:49pm Feb 1, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting hefhem911


I want to see if the system is at its best else, push the system to be better.

I hear you, been working on this myself.

I'd add this to yours personally :-

Envelope 50sma 0.15% for EJ, works well, use it for direction slower markets chop within nicely, upon breaking out of the range, good odds you can hold the position, until it comes back into the range, that rule would of got you 150pips today easy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #28
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:50pm Feb 1, 2013 1:50pm
Nothing statistical on stoch's or RSI or any of the others, not 1 of them can see the future, they just look good after the fact, live useless.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #29
  • Feb 2, 2013 10:24am Feb 2, 2013 10:24am
@ bull.bear,

Quoting ~bull.bear~
I don't remember the setting (Optimal value), but i could roughly provide you an example with the chart here. 2 Stoch here, top is refer to 1 hour trend (60,15,15) and bottom is refer to 2 hour trend (120,15,15).

The reason i don't use this because i don't feel comfortable with it and i only like trend indicator. Maybe this indicator could be useful if you know it more. Of course, it cannot be used alone.
OK. Thanks. But, on a m1 chart, what settings will you be looking at? I will take it up from there.


@ Turveyed,

Quoting Turveyd
I hear you, been working on this myself.

I'd add this to yours personally :-

Envelope 50sma 0.15% for EJ, works well, use it for direction slower markets chop within nicely, upon breaking out of the range, good odds you can hold the position, until it comes back into the range, that rule would of got you 150pips today easy!!
can you post a chart example? Thanks



@ Nijee


Quoting Nijee
I trade similar to you. For me my exit is based on measuring momentum. At present I am using the TSI for this. Think we have a mutual friend in mahdiquandt. Have some interesting articles on measuring momentum that have shaped my thinking on this issue. PM me if you are interested.
I once used TSI before. I replaced it though seeing I wasn't getting what I wanted (may be the fault is from me).

My system also factors in momentum as when your trade aren't backed by momentum, you will sure get into trouble.

PM sent.


@ Turveyed,

Quoting Turveyd
Nothing statistical on stoch's or RSI or any of the others, not 1 of them can see the future, they just look good after the fact, live useless.
Any proof to back up that statement? Charts etc will be good.
  • #30
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:26pm Feb 2, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting hefhem911

@ Turveyed,



Any proof to back up that statement? Charts etc will be good.


I believe science works by, you have to prove that something works, it's very hard to prove something doesn't, so over to you.

Charts are all posted after the fact and would look like it's working, but no!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #31
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:26pm Feb 2, 2013 1:26pm
This thread isn't about one minute charts or if you can be profitable with them. I have my own opinion of that and could go on a rant but I'll hold my tongue as I know Turveyd and Slim_Buffett are just as big of stubborn fools as I am.

The issue here is that you want an exit strategy that is going to conserve more of your profit. I can recommend a few ideas, and none of them involve indicators. The first is to set a target and let price reach that target and close. Walla, you make exactly what you expected or you lose exactly what you expected. Thank the market and move on. This works best when you identify areas where price is likely to have a hard time continuing on its trajectory, such as a supply or demand zone.

The other strategy is to use support and resistance again to observe market behavior. You can mark the most important price levels and see how price reacts to them. If we have a bull market, enter at wherever you get your signal (I buy on dips to supply) and then trail a stop behind formed support as price rises. A less aggressive approach is to exit when support becomes resistance - there are tradeoffs to whichever method you use. Exit using the earlier type and you're going to maybe have to spend more on the spread re-entering if the trend continues. Exit using the later method and you'll have to give up more of your profits, but you'll probably stay in longer. No matter what kind of (non pre-set) exit strategy you employ you're going to have to understand that you won't be able to keep all of the paper profits you make, it just isn't possible.
  • #32
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:39pm Feb 2, 2013 1:39pm
Hold until the momenturn goes flat or turns against you, why make it more complicated.


Its an imperfect world so sadly only imperfect solutions!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #33
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:42pm Feb 2, 2013 1:42pm
I think all us m1 traders should bash all h4 threads and see how they like it, not like any of them are profitable.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #34
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:20pm Feb 2, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting Turveyd
Hold until the momenturn goes flat or turns against you, why make it more complicated.


Its an imperfect world so sadly only imperfect solutions!
Agreed! The market is both predictable and unpredictable (some say random others say chaotic). Regardless of the semantics or personal views we have to take what the market gives. In such a dynamic environment we need a dynamic exit. Having a dynamic exit does not mean it cant be ruled based. But for me it does mean active trade management - once my system shows the move has lost momentum, time to exit. Take what the market gives, not what you think the market will give. Big difference and and certainly not complicated.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #35
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:51pm Feb 2, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting Nijee
Agreed! The market is both predictable and unpredictable (some say random others say chaotic). Regardless of the semantics or personal views we have to take what the market gives. In such a dynamic environment we need a dynamic exit. Having a dynamic exit does not mean it cant be ruled based. But for me it does mean active trade management - once my system shows the move has lost momentum, time to exit. Take what the market gives, not what you think the market will give. Big difference and and certainly not complicated.
Yep when it goesflat its 50/50 and not here to gamble.

EJ recently US am jumo on trend and hold, not been around to catch 1 sadly
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #36
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:51pm Feb 2, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting Tradedly

If I'm boring you, just let me know. ;-)
thanks, that is a very good post.

1) you split up your entry into 3 1/3 lots, so your exit SL is the same amount you would lose if you went in with 1 lot.
2) you now have 3 chances to exit, before you only had 1 lot so could exit once, and the lack of flexibility will cost you long winners..
3) Small trends(i.e. 15 pips) you would only get 1/3 part of that exited, the rest would've moved to break even, so only small profit made.
4) medium trends 30 pips, you would get 1/3 part exited, and the rest would've hit trailing stop at 15pip as well as the 1st 1/3 exited at 15pip. Average profit is 20 pips.
5) the best result seen from long trend 50 pip, as you get 1/3 exited here, 1/3 exited at 30, and 1/3 already exited at 15pips. So overall you get an average of 30 pips.

Alternatively you can do what Kanzler has suggested, and just exit price level based, and just take whatever profit you can. In the long term i doubt it will make much difference as market does what it wants.

Re 1 minute chart traders, i use 1 minute chart, i see no problem with it. The main advantage you can get some earlier entries on the 1m than on any other timeframe. Some of the best trends start on the 1minute. But you can get false entries too. With a good spread broker, you can keep losses small. Of course, i use other timeframe for analysis, and 1minute is only for the entry.
  • #37
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:16pm Feb 2, 2013 5:16pm
i think you should consider whether you are an range trader or a trend trader.

if you are a range trader, you can just exit at support or resistance. here is an article that talks about that: http://blog.forex4you.com/support-an...ding-strategy/

if you are a trend trader, you should consider pyramiding. the turtle way is an easy way to pyramid: http://www.informedtrades.com/563619...urtle-way.html
  • #38
  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2013 6:47am Feb 8, 2013 6:47am
Another free day.

Thanks everyone who have contributed.

Been working hard on improving and came up with the chart below. The problem is, even if I decided to change TF, am still not able to capture "almost" everything.

Thing is, am now able...to some extent get a better entry. But, I need a better exit too. The problem I have with profit targets is that it ain't consistent.

Today, the mkt might give you 200pips and tomorrow 50pips. We all know what will happen if you don't take the 50pips but keep waiting for it to go an additional 150pips.

I will keep trying to improve the exit and keep you posted.

Suggestions still welcome.
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