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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #5,021
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:37am Feb 1, 2013 11:37am
Quoting hlakhani
Took half at 1.5830. SL is at BE, risk free ride

Well done

Gotta love position size.... can be very profitable.

TSD
  • #5,022
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:40pm Feb 1, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Not sure of your query , Supply and Demand is Price Action. I don't look for any entry signal. and picking levels is gone over a lot . every chart i post normally has a level marked on it. I don't over complicated it . I try to keep it basic .If a level doesn't look great i may wait and see if price is stalling and trying to turn before joining in especially on a 2nd or 3rd touch . But I also am worried i might miss a trade for waiting to long on a first touch , as I believe we aren't the only ones looking at these levels and some are willing to...
just asking about candle patterns like hammers, etc. cool so you dont usually use those, you just pick the best levels. thanks
  • #5,023
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:58pm Feb 1, 2013 1:58pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Not sure of your query , Supply and Demand is Price Action. I don't look for any entry signal. and picking levels is gone over a lot . every chart i post normally has a level marked on it. I don't over complicated it . I try to keep it basic .If a level doesn't look great i may wait and see if price is stalling and trying to turn before joining in especially on a 2nd or 3rd touch . But I also am worried i might miss a trade for waiting to long on a first touch , as I believe we aren't the only ones looking at these levels and some are willing to...

This is a great point people...Thanks KL

Sometimes waitng to see how PA is reacting before entering can be very benefical. Understand you may be slightly late on the move and yet the move becomes profitable due to " watching the PA " before entering. Its not just about seeing a level, price returns to this level, we enter trade, we make money....Wish it were that easy .

As KL has mention, especially on 2'd and 3'd touches.. This is definitely a course of action that you 'May' want to consider. As I have posted in the past I tend to step down in TF ( and sometimes up ) to see if there is some price action taking place that will give me a clearer perspective on entering the trade.. I especially like PIN BARs that create a new low and close high in the range and in the direction that I am looking to trade. Solid ENGULFING is also another great PA once inside the level. When we see PA like this odds are high the SM are active..Think in terms of what is relative to the PA prior...Like a PIN BAR with a long wick.. Closes high in the bars range.. Take a lot of effort to accomplish that.. Most likely the SM's are active and getting ready to " Bust a Move " ...

This is not to take away from the Odds Enhancers ( Trend, how PA has entered the level, etc ) that we all look for when making our desicions.. These are just enhancements ( IMHO ) Some will be comforatble with these , some will not.

My point is that many focus way to much on the 'VERY BEST ENTRY' but by doing so you miss many profitable trades. Think terms of area and how price is acting/reacting to this "area".. ... Area, level, zone.. It is what we look at, yet many want everything to the pip. That is simply not the case most of the time.. Although it's great when it does happen...For me " I aint that Flipping good "

Just my added 2 pips

TSD
  • #5,024
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:36am Feb 2, 2013 12:36am
Charts did not show.. will redo
  • #5,025
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:42am Feb 2, 2013 12:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Took this short last night. I took two positions .. Both were 2 lots. We had a 15M PIN BAR that just touched my Supply Level. Price was a bit far away from the level so I waited .There was a second PIN BAR on the 15M that closed so we entered position #1

The 2 PIN BARs gave the confidence to add a second position as price moved up.. We are selling into the direction of Supply. As I have mentioned before I tend to step down in TF to see inside my trade.... Hence the 5M charts..

What I was looking for was 1) A Demand Level for my target. 2) Where is that level in relation to R/R..The 0390 "area" fit the bill on the 5M....My SL's were 6 and 7 pips. So I was right around that 2:1 R/R.

#1
Entry 1.04016
TP 1.03905

Pipage = 11.1 x 2 lots

#2
Entry 1.04037
TP 1.03895

Pipage =14.2 x 2 lots


Total pipage 50

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As you can see price moved aggressively into my TP.. Now there are some of you thinking why didn't I let the second position run..?? That's "hind sight"..Price did stall at my TP level.. Then powered down..But that was not my plan..My plan was to trade multiple lots w/ multiple positions to a specific target. I try not to stay up all night with a trade..I am on the west coast of the US.. Trading the Asian session into the London can make for a long night.

As previously mentioned, your entry may be an AREA and not specifically the inside of the level. I made my decisions based on what I am seeing = Rejection of the level..R:R was well within tolerance for my account.


Good trading to all

TSD
  • #5,026
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:59am Feb 5, 2013 12:59am
Here is my EURAUD and EURCAD chart. Is this lebel correct or not? I need suggestion.
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  • #5,027
  • Feb 6, 2013 8:35am Feb 6, 2013 8:35am
Thanks Ken for the PDF's.

It might take a while to read through your thread, but well worth it!
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #5,028
  • Feb 7, 2013 12:17am Feb 7, 2013 12:17am
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This was the set up for the H1 Short. 2 Lot.. If you look back to 5.06.2010 on the 4HR you will see 2 candle drop of about 500 pips total....This pair has been on a strong upward trend so we do for pull back. The weekly trend is down so we are trading with the larger trend for this short.

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Got Short on the H1 PIN BAR// Conformation into the 4HR Supply. We waited on solid conformation before taking the short.

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Moved my SL. If PA turns back up this far I will still be in the $$ about 30 pip. As you can see price was close to my TP, hence the reason for the move.

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Was not to be. PA did turn back up and hit my SL...Out with just over 30 pip. If you are going to move your SL set it so that you can make something even if the trade turns against... At the same time giving the market enough room to move. Notice how far PA has got away from my entry. Moving the SL in this manner makes sense.. IMHO

Good trading to all

TSD
  • #5,029
  • Feb 7, 2013 1:23am Feb 7, 2013 1:23am
Hi,

I'd appreciate any comments or advice on the chart please. Thank you.
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  • #5,030
  • Feb 7, 2013 1:25am Feb 7, 2013 1:25am
TSD, I was looking at the short you did on UJ off the 4 hr pin bar. I see the price went pretty much to the extreme of that level. Would you say that level should not be touched for a short again because of this? That seems to be Sam's thinking, since all the supply must be wiped out. Is that your opinion too? I appreciate your help, and help from others here.
  • #5,031
  • Feb 7, 2013 10:44am Feb 7, 2013 10:44am
Quoting Gerry
TSD, I was looking at the short you did on UJ off the 4 hr pin bar. I see the price went pretty much to the extreme of that level. Would you say that level should not be touched for a short again because of this? That seems to be Sam's thinking, since all the supply must be wiped out. Is that your opinion too? I appreciate your help, and help from others here.
No, I dont subscribe to that idea.. We will not know until price return...Yes, there needs to be Supply to go short.. and .. needs to be wiped out for price to conitnue upward.. But again, we will not know that until price returns to the level and see the price action. The PA will give you insite into whether there is Supply/Demand left at that level. Price approaching will also give you clues..( Odds Enhancer ) ...If PA moves into your level very aggressively from the base.. What cases that move are the SM's.. They are the only ones who can move PA that aggressively.. If PA just meanders in ( take it time ) choppy, wandering slowly... The SM's may not be active and price will often continue through the level.And is we do get some price from Supply it may be weak at best.. Not the best trade to take.. No follow through....You can see a better discription of this when you see levels inside the BASE of the pattern.. PA tends to meander and levels will often not hold.. WHY.. The SM are generally not active or not "that" active.. Although the traders who trade the 1M may argue this point..

This trade was counter trend trade in a very strong up market.. Aggressive to be sure...It hit the 4HR from way back...I just played the bounce based on PA.. the odds were higher that I would get some retrace as I was usnig a 4HR level and not a 30M level..So moving from a 4HR to a 60M .. I was looking for rejection.

TSD
  • #5,032
  • Feb 7, 2013 7:54pm Feb 7, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting TraderinSD
No, I dont subscribe to that idea.. We will not know until price return...Yes, there needs to be Supply to go short.. and .. needs to be wiped out for price to conitnue upward.. But again, we will not know that until price returns to the level and see the price action. The PA will give you insite into whether there is Supply/Demand left at that level. Price approaching will also give you clues..( Odds Enhancer ) ...If PA moves into your level very aggressively from the base.. What cases that move are the SM's.. They are the only ones who can move...

Thanks. That's well explained. I keep seeing SM in this thread. I think it's Smart Money... correct me if I'm wrong, please. I never understood why it was important for price to move aggressively into a level. So the SM being active, means they are 'pushing' the price in the 'wrong' direction (opposite to the direction they want to trade in) so they can buy / sell at the cheaper level they want.
  • #5,033
  • Feb 7, 2013 7:59pm Feb 7, 2013 7:59pm
Loser trade:





Any comments / advice welcome
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  • #5,034
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:07pm Feb 7, 2013 8:07pm
Here's another. EURCAD. Took a long here too. I sold half my position at 16 pips profit and the rest went to my SL, so a smallish loss, but I still don't understand where I went wrong. I know some trades just fail... is this one of them?
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  • #5,035
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:19pm Feb 7, 2013 8:19pm
Quoting Gerry
Loser trade:





Any comments / advice welcome
Hey there,
From my view the trade failed because the level you had picked is actually not a new level in itself.. check the 4hr chart below for the previous demand area and then the spike (arrow up)... then if you go up again to the daily you see that the 4hr level was actually a spike of the daily demand...so id say the level had already been quite abused.. hope that explains it enough
josh
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nollej is power..
  • #5,036
  • Feb 7, 2013 10:01pm Feb 7, 2013 10:01pm
Hi all, this is my first post here. Here is a trade i currently have on usd jpy. took supply off 5 min supply. target is 1 hour demand below
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  • #5,037
  • Feb 7, 2013 11:26pm Feb 7, 2013 11:26pm
Quoting Gerry
Thanks. That's well explained. I keep seeing SM in this thread. I think it's Smart Money... correct me if I'm wrong, please. I never understood why it was important for price to move aggressively into a level. So the SM being active, means they are 'pushing' the price in the 'wrong' direction (opposite to the direction they want to trade in) so they can buy / sell at the cheaper level they want.

Yes, SM = Smart Money.... Simply we are looking at the SM selling into a rising market and buying into a falling market.. The large moves you see are the SM being active. Tipping their hand so to speak.

TSD
  • #5,038
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:13am Feb 8, 2013 6:13am
Josh,I see you are SOOO right, then I think, why didn't I see that???

TSD, thanks for that. Will keep at it
  • #5,039
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:59am Feb 8, 2013 7:59am
Morning, eur short from a 5 min supply lvl, although might not work since it in 30 min. demand. Reason i took it is because it went pretty deep into the Demand lvl so it there might not be any buyers left.
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  • #5,040
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:54pm Feb 8, 2013 1:54pm
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These next set of charts will hopefully show you that maintaining a structural understanding of The Power of Trend .. Hopefully this will help define your trades and direction with more confidence. Notice this is a monthly chart. We clearly have a level where price has approached very aggressively. I assume we all have been watching the Yen climb over the last few months. The upward move has been extremely strong. Based on what we see, we have a clear Supply Level and where price has come into this level very aggressively!

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Now lets look at the weekly.. We can still make a case for a good Supply Level.

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We see a very clear Supply Level on the Daily within the Monthly Supply Level.

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See how price entered our Monthly Supply Level.. Just scraping the lower side of our Supply Level

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Here we have the classic Rise-Base-Drop pattern.


So here are the questions:

1) Price is in a Strong Up Trend.. we should take only longs?
2) Price just slammed into a Monthly Supply Level..Price is now outside of a Monthly Supply Level.. we should take only shorts?
3) Trend.. Counter Trend... Trade, No Trade...What would you do ???


Hints: 1) Do not complicate this. 2) Trading is based on probabilities. 3) What is it that you SEE? 4) Think of Patterns w/in Patterns.


TSD
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