Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

[quote=fti;6413197]dangerous thoughts.yes i appreciate that,my problem is if i dont have confidence in what i am doing,i dont know how i am going to initiate the position.
confident?i am confident becos of me not using leverage and infact not using the whole of equity.my initiating positions are just about 1/20th equity and bigger positions usually end toward the end of a big moves.like on this move i had initiated my short position about 1.3512 and by the time i put the whole position it travel about 200 pips and my bigger leverage positions landed near 1.3700 and presently i offset all those big position with about 40 pips X8 on each and left with smaller position which are managable.
against trend?i was looking at weekly and monthly chart.since 2007 prices are in correction mode and becos of the whole financial crisis dollar is gaining becos of the risk aversion and my feeling was once this quarter is over tendency of the prices going to the downside much stronger than to the upside.


short term?i thougt market fluctuates

I like ask how you know this going be short term?i dont know but probably it was my reversion to mean mindset which push toward it.

when rates was dropped to 0
i though, oh short term , trying mitigate the debt situation.
will revert slowly when situation improves.
But ai ya is human la,
when pain is gone , forget to switch off the machine, is normal.
we'll see, if is short term.

I guess God helped me.
Would had gone balistics long euro after the nfp.
but due to insanity i am suspended do any trades.

Probablly make pips and get heart attack again.
but is ok la.
dying isn't so bad, if living becomes so meaningless.
whats the point, live like vegetable stay alive, when children visits me i not even able recognise them.



regards. ok those are my thoughts.hope i have,nt dig the hole deeper..
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
[quote=drzakir123;6413295]
Quoting fti
dangerous thoughts.yes i appreciate that,my problem is if i dont have confidence in what i am doing,i dont know how i am going to initiate the position.
confident?[color=red]i am confident becos of me not using leverage and infact not using the whole of equity.my initiating positions are just about 1/20th equity and bigger positions usually end toward the end of a big moves.like on this move i had initiated my short position about 1.3512 and by the time i put the whole position it travel about 200 pips and...
ya , fine.
I accept.
You clever, mm save you.
but a good trader would had shuffled long,but of course not knowing that tanks were coming.
In fact the best traders would be long euro cable.
Think of the opportunity cost.

So if we factor opportunity cost in , seems not so clever?

I repeat myself.
I may be going nuts , but i try say la.

This not your everyday ranges,
someone unleased out an army.crashing everthing in its path.
And i not even heard nothing from the other side.

maybe next week, after they get over the shock.
i really don't know.
but to formulate thoughts like short term?
thats deception.
no one knows.
we'll see.

regards
[quote=drzakir123;6413295]
Quoting fti
dangerous thoughts.yes i appreciate that,my problem is if i dont have confidence in what i am doing,i dont know how i am going to initiate the position.
confident?[color=red]i am confident becos of me not using leverage and infact not using the whole of equity.my initiating positions are just about 1/20th equity and bigger positions usually end toward the end of a big moves.like on this move i had initiated my short position about 1.3512 and by the time i put the whole position it travel about 200 pips and...
i made 500 pips today with my 25 shorts half made on announcement and half made from 137. i still have 5 position and which i can leave or close with small loss.

the problem is that there is no SHOULD, WOULD, COULD in the market but only IS. What is happening can make money.

good luck
[quote=simpleman;6413320]
Quoting drzakir123

i made 500 pips today with my 25 shorts half made on announcement and half made from 137. i still have 5 position and which i can leave or close with small loss.

the problem is that there is no SHOULD, WOULD, COULD in the market but only IS. What is happening can make money.

good luck
ai ya you champion.
i made nothing.
was planning whole week, and my body fails me.

so now we know who the big buyer is at the 35s?
slippery as a water snake.
was very dangerous.
anyone trading euro watching the cable, would had shit in his pants.

i need remind myself, expect the unexpected. BE PREPARED. but i also failed.


regards
[quote=fti;6413331]
Quoting simpleman

ai ya you champion.
i made nothing.
was planning whole week, and my body fails me.

so now we know who the big buyer is at the 35s?

regards
thank you my friend, i learned a lot from you. just trying to make up dec/jan losses.

i hope it gets to 135 as it has gone up steeply and bungee is possible, i can try long 1.3580.

what worries me is usd is weak only against euro in developed countries currencies, ecb wouldn't like it.
I had similar thought pattern as you Dr. and know what happened, my acct is now cut in half, just within this year. Am about ready to quit. I told myself not to trade anymore, but just couldn't stop it. It is addicting. Seems like I like to be in pain. Yes, I love to take position against the trend with minimal leverage, then brings in the whole force when it goes against me, but am doing it too soon and it just continues to go against me. Then, like a deer staring at the oncoming car, couldn't decide what to do - couldn't get out of the position. This kills me! It happened several times and thought lesson was learned, but bad habit is difficult to overcome. I find comfort seeing this happens to not only me. I want to turn this habit around. Thanks to chief FTI's continued presence here, his light continues to beam on our weakness and brings them to the forefront for dissecting.

God bless!

jonyl
Quoting jonyl_pips
I had similar thought pattern as you Dr. and know what happened, my acct is now cut in half, just within this year. Am about ready to quit. I told myself not to trade anymore, but just couldn't stop it. It is addicting. Seems like I like to be in pain. Yes, I love to take position against the trend with minimal leverage, then brings in the whole force when it goes against me, but am doing it too soon and it just continues to go against me. Then, like a deer staring at the oncoming car, couldn't decide what to do - couldn't get out of the position....
ai ya so sad.
is true, is not easy. remember the lesson.
Now you experienced trader.

newbies will not understand.
some need learn the hard way before gets it.
Hope that those who learns , manage survives from robust mm and carry the lesson to be internalised.

can bring the horses to water, still cannot force any to drink.

regards
[quote=fti;6413306][quote=drzakir123;6413295]

ya , fine.
I accept.
You clever, mm save you.
but a good trader would had shuffled long,but of course not knowing that tanks were coming.
In fact the best traders would be long euro cable.my focus is completly on euro/usd,last 5yrs i have'nt seen any other pair.its only recently i am looking at other pairs.also i am neglecting fundamental analysis which i am trying now to understand and keep in mind and understand how it work in relation to price action,given couple of year i will have a handle on that as well.yes i agree its a long to go for me to become a good trader.
Think of the opportunity cost.

So if we factor opportunity cost in , seems not so clever?ur abosuletly right.

I repeat myself.
I may be going nuts , but i try say la.

This not your everyday ranges,my experiecne is that trend moves on friday are very nasty,usually happen when something fundamentally has changed in the market.
someone unleased out an army.crashing everthing in its path.
And i not even heard nothing from the other side.

maybe next week, after they get over the shock.
i really don't know.
but to formulate thoughts like short term?
thats deception.yes i agree,to be honest i myself dont know what short term/long term or medium term,always have difficulty with that when u read in books.every book has a different defination.
no one knows.
we'll see.

regards



fti i am still learning things and these things will take time.thank u very much for holding the hands,much grateful to you. by the way i dont think u have lost yours nuts yet.trust me i am a doctor
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
Quoting fti
ai ya so sad.
is true, is not easy. remember the lesson.
Now you experienced trader.

newbies will not understand.
some need learn the hard way before gets it.
Hope that those who learns , manage survives from robust mm and carry the lesson to be internalised.

can bring the horses to water, still cannot force any to drink.

regards
Thanks for your reply, Chief. Your words are so comforting...

regards!
Chief,
I recall that day that you were very active on the thread, across three time zones if I recall. We all can fall asleep at the PCM trading out of our time zones :-)
Hopefully rest will help.
There is no doubt to your lucidity and continuing excellent mental faculties.
We would all enjoy your company, repartee, and insights in this big year of the snake and of the Panda wars :-). It is something not to be missed
P


Quoting fti
oh, all my activities for trading had stopped.
is very evident findings that i had napped 3 times on the trade day inquestion.
apparently after the last nap, my mind regressed to before sleeping, and awaiting the fomc again.
Its very clear is time disorientation. Which means that my mind is unreliable when stressed.
This is very dangerous. And i have decided no more.

If you want learn the basics of how trade well.
Is already on thread.
For me retirement is safer, for me and for everyone else that is following the thread.

For you shaukat,...
Hi

Just want to share my eu dance and thoughts last night.
I was short eu after the nfp figs came out. Price dropped and everything pointing down, i think 'nice tonight is gonna be a good night'.
all of a sudden i saw some buying frenzy going on, this dude seems single-handedly stopped the down move(thats what it feels like to me, or just my imaginations).
i say 'wtf this guy is either insane or really big'. by this time i already felt really uncomfortable with my short position.
I should be squared and put long scout in but instead i just watch and do nothing. Turns out it is a freight train coming my way.
My short position makes me so rigid. I know what i should do but my hand seems not controlled by me.
Then i remember something fti said "DON'T BE A FOOL". I closed the position at BE lol. not dare to chase price even with all the euro crosses soaring.
Decided to call it a day since my gu trade did net me some good pips.

ai ya really hard to get rid of those scorpions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu010213.png Size: 38 KB


that zigzag pattern is my favorite candlestick pattern.
[quote=drzakir123;6413359][quote=fti;6413306]
Quoting drzakir123

ya , fine.
I accept.
You clever, mm save you.
but a good trader would had shuffled long,but of course not knowing that tanks were coming.
In fact the best traders would be long euro cable.[color=red]my focus is completly on euro/usd,last 5yrs i have'nt seen any other pair.its only recently i am looking at other pairs.also i am neglecting fundamental analysis which i am trying now to understand and keep in mind and understand how it work in relation to price action,given couple of year i will...
Dr.
one can only do stuff tht one has practised adn internalised.
things about what you not know yet, there nothing can be done, but to be learned as you climb the learning curve.
There's lots stuff in medicine as well, what you not specialised you cannot do yet.
what ypu can do and internalise you practise to the best you can, right?

If you have not mastered 1 pair yet how you gonna manage read 2 or 3 or 5.
And hows their relationship one to the other.
Lots screen time needed.
Is not fundementals.
is was technically showing.
I was already tell you peeps , that the euro was very bid, but not know why yet.
even chanced tell you peeps that enven if cable was driven to 1.55 the impact on euro would seem minimal.
I believe yyou didn't read that?

The rhythm was on chart for a whole week and you not noticed?
Too engrosed with your own bias?



regards
[quote=drzakir123;6413359][quote=fti;6413306]
Quoting drzakir123

my experiecne is that trend moves on friday are very nasty,usually happen when something fundamentally has changed in the market.
someone unleased out an army.crashing everthing in its path.
And i not even heard nothing from the other side.
Dr,
this very bias rigid mindset.
I warn you again.

If you have this kind of mindset you basically always paralysed.
Monday , is bad for trades, markets, not warmed up yet.
Tuesdays, week just starts, so need be slow.
Wenesday is middle of week, so is only day can trade.
Thursday peeps getting tired and ready for week end.
Friday is nasty.
saturday you can't get prices.
sunday is for family .
then again monday.............
With such rigid mind you might as not trade.


regards
Quoting jonyl_pips
Thanks for your reply, Chief. Your words are so comforting...

regards!
conforting is ok , my friend.
I know is hard drop half account.
take break if you must.
I am certain you will be back in markets.

please not walk back in to gun battles with a knife in hand. Doesn't work that way.
now get brains working and try formulate how you going get the pips back, safely.

regards
Quoting peetee09
Chief,
I recall that day that you were very active on the thread, across three time zones if I recall. We all can fall asleep at the PCM trading out of our time zones :-)
Hopefully rest will help.
There is no doubt to your lucidity and continuing excellent mental faculties.
We would all enjoy your company, repartee, and insights in this big year of the snake and of the Panda wars :-). It is something not to be missed
P
ya missing opportunity like this is not clever.
But is ok, I' try to fig out if i will ever be ok.
No worry about me.
I think is nothing drinking tea and watching grass grow will not cure.

Thanks for kind words, my friend.Appreciated.

regards
Quoting ti6al4v
Hi

Just want to share my eu dance and thoughts last night.
I was short eu after the nfp figs came out. Price dropped and everything pointing down, i think 'nice tonight is gonna be a good night'.
all of a sudden i saw some buying frenzy going on, this dude seems single-handedly stopped the down move(thats what it feels like to me, or just my imaginations).
i say 'wtf this guy is either insane or really big'. by this time i already felt really uncomfortable with my short position.
I should be squared and put long scout in but instead...
Thats because you not have much foreign cap lean on.
If you had, you would had shot your missiles.
nevermind, you survived, is now water under the bridge.
Get them next time when you ready .

There will always be more chances.
But you now have some experience added .


regards
Quoting ti6al4v
Hi

Just want to share my eu dance and thoughts last night.
I was short eu after the nfp figs came out. Price dropped and everything pointing down, i think 'nice tonight is gonna be a good night'.
all of a sudden i saw some buying frenzy going on, this dude seems single-handedly stopped the down move(thats what it feels like to me, or just my imaginations).
i say 'wtf this guy is either insane or really big'. by this time i already felt really uncomfortable with my short position.
I should be squared and put long scout in but instead i just...
yes, very hard to trade if the market behave like this
Attached Image
hi fti
thank for sharing with us here your knowledge of trading, i found this thread about 2 week ago and have read from page 1 to 259, i started last week to apply your MM on my live account last week, and it has so far booked 200 pips was traped in a long drawdown for about an hour on friday after nfp, that i had to implement 3rd level rescue, which is my limit of rescue by my MM design using your shared model, i though got out at breakeven while to market continued up after that closed shop for the week, i trade only EURUSD, once again thanks.
another point of note Zoran i see you still come around here i notice you dont contribute that much again i think this thread need you and the other first traders here to help some of us that are new to the approach learn better. reading your discussion with Lusan, David, Leigh, etc really helped my learning pls come back
[quote=fti;6413780][quote=drzakir123;6413359][quote=fti;6413306]

Dr.
one can only do stuff tht one has practised adn internalised.true,i agree
things about what you not know yet, there nothing can be done, but to be learned as you climb the learning curve.
There's lots stuff in medicine as well, what you not specialised you cannot do yet.
what ypu can do and internalise you practise to the best you can, right?

If you have not mastered 1 pair yet how you gonna manage read 2 or 3 or 5.
And hows their relationship one to the other.ii slept on this one, last night and by morning i understand everything.EURO strongest,USD in the middle,GBP the weakest hence play long euro against gbp ie strongest against weakest.same goes in euro strongest,usd in the middle and yen the weakest hence long euro against jpy is the trade to take.i will assure u fti,i wont miss this next time
Lots screen time needed.
Is not fundementals.
is was technically showing.
I was already tell you peeps , that the euro was very bid, but not know why yet.can u calrify a bit what u mean by euro is very bid? and how do u its very bid? do u come to that conclusion due to intermarket relationship?
even chanced tell you peeps that enven if cable was driven to 1. 55 the impact on euro would eem minimal.
I believe yyou didn't read that?

The rhythm was on chart for a whole week and you not noticed?
Too engrosed with your own bias?



regards thank u fti i learned something new after a long time.i dont think i am going to miss this kind of trades next time.it is facinating seeing euro/usd and gbp/usd tearing apart,wow!!
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
Wishes worked a lot still fighting some last Minute battles still not finished
1 trader viewing now