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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,501
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:09pm Jan 31, 2013 2:09pm
Hi Vic


blessings and best wishes from me for your success.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #38,502
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:16pm Jan 31, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
@chief,

out till sunday...


@all
pray for me some imp meeting....i can use some good wishes and prayer....


V
All the Best!
  • #38,503
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:29pm Jan 31, 2013 2:29pm
Thanks chief for your detailed response.

What we are currently discussing with EUR and GU and USD etc IS answering my query on the three ks thanks, it is just getting a better understanding of the thought processes you go though in assessing 3 kingdom influences.

I hadn't read yr respnse to Cuthbert yet, I had gone back to post this reply to you first, but yes that is good and helps
I appreciate now that it is more rhythm of market and less of chart decison rules

thx
P

Quoting fti
some things peeps ask is very difficult for me to understand.
the relation of 3 kingdoms is an anology about the relationship of different currencies.
what relationship you asking about? There is no fix relationship otherwise crosses will be fixed.

Fundemental impacts cannot be defined in absolute terms, is the effects based on general expectations and actuals. There is no formulas determine it.

dancing markets is your ability learn stay in the rhythm of the push pull effect that happens in the market. Is a mind process. action and respond...
  • #38,504
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:16pm Jan 31, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
@chief,

out till sunday...


@all
pray for me some imp meeting....i can use some good wishes and prayer....


V
Got ya covered. prayers and well wishes headed your way. Good luck.
  • #38,505
  • Jan 31, 2013 7:56pm Jan 31, 2013 7:56pm
Hi chief,

Yes USA GDP drop is very bad (i did mention it in my post earlier #38474)

Forex Factory is showing FOMC info out at 2.15 pm USD Eastern Wed 30th, I think part of reason why we didn't pick up the discrepancy is that we are all on different timezones and sometimes talk in local time

P

Quoting fti
eeer, i just being informed tonight is not fomc night.
is checking source.
why is this happening?

standby for verification please.
oh sharks, there is some cock up in the info streams.
Is confirm tonight is not fomc night.
what a dunce.

No one notice check it out? also?

ai ya this is very dangerous.
bad info streams.
i think i best get some rest before more mistakes.
May be is full moon on me today.

regards

okk i have dealers verification
fomc was held this morning GMT+8
so i was waitinf fomc that had passed this morning.

"20130131...
  • #38,506
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:39am Feb 1, 2013 1:39am
Inserted Video
  • #38,507
  • Feb 1, 2013 3:14am Feb 1, 2013 3:14am
I would like to thank FTI and the many many others that have contributed to this thread. I am only 1/10th through reading this massive thread! (and to be honest, I'll need to re-read it once I have some more experience under my belt).

I started trading on the 1 minute chart a little over 1 year ago, only to work up through the time frames ending up on the daily chart. In my quest for knowledge I followed the "rules" I found all over the internet - set stop losses, don't add to a loosing position, etc. The stop loss was hunted locking in loss, at times to within the pip. Other times I felt the battle turning and resisted "adding to loosing position", missing out on potential "rescues".

I am glad I stumbled across this thread about a month ago. I went "naked" over 6 months ago so the thread got my attention

Now I have done a full circle and back on the 5 minute chart (using the high time frames for trend). With knowledge gained from this thread I feel much more prepared.

Regards.
  • #38,508
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:03am Feb 1, 2013 4:03am
Eur and GU look to have parted company, heading in opposite directions. Also AUD near its lows, usual correlations breaking down!
P
  • #38,509
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:43am Feb 1, 2013 4:43am
Hi FFBinary


welcome, from your post it would appear that you are treading along the right path for this style of trading.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #38,510
  • Feb 1, 2013 6:01am Feb 1, 2013 6:01am
Quoting simpleman
i had thought and doing on longer time frame as well, most of the things fti has told will still apply. On longer time frames
one need more resources and will have to be ready for big moves against you.

...................................................................
Longer time frame is more biased trading compared to short time frame where you trade now biased.
If I remember correctly, FTI did say you start with the short sword before learning the long sword. For entry and exit you would still use the short TF even though you trade long term. "A protracted war would be a strain on our resources". When on rescue we may have to go longer TF, which I find quite stressful. But when on attack (in the money), the feeling is totally different even if it goes on for days and weeks.

My thinking is, to survive long term, I'll have to be able to trade for days continuously and fight my way out, when I'm trapped. Never to say die but to make sure I have enough of resources.

May be I'm a bit off topic. But trading long term, entering a position and leaving it for weeks and months, hoping things turn out right may be better for trading stocks.

Just my thoughts.

regards,

zz
  • #38,511
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:03am Feb 1, 2013 7:03am
Quoting zoomzoom
If I remember correctly, FTI did say you start with the short sword before learning the long sword. For entry and exit you would still use the short TF even though you trade long term. "A protracted war would be a strain on our resources". When on rescue we may have to go longer TF, which I find quite stressful. But when on attack (in the money), the feeling is totally different even if it goes on for days and weeks.

My thinking is, to survive long term, I'll have to be able to trade for days continuously and fight my way out, when I'm...
read the post again,
  • #38,512
  • Feb 1, 2013 8:12am Feb 1, 2013 8:12am
@ trading is stoped by myself till further order form commander in chief

, I was an old men sitting top roof waiting for GOD himself!!!!!!
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,513
  • Edited 9:22am Feb 1, 2013 9:07am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting shaukat113
@ trading is stoped by myself till further order form commander in chief

, I was an old men sitting top roof waiting for GOD himself!!!!!!
oh, all my activities for trading had stopped.
is very evident findings that i had napped 3 times on the trade day inquestion.
apparently after the last nap, my mind regressed to before sleeping, and awaiting the fomc again.
Its very clear is time disorientation. Which means that my mind is unreliable when stressed.
This is very dangerous. And i have decided no more.

If you want learn the basics of how trade well.
Is already on thread.
For me retirement is safer, for me and for everyone else that is following the thread.

For you shaukat, i detect that you not learned a thing, mostly.
Although my analysis of you may br unreliable too, but i saw when you posted the chart asking about ducks.
You see you very rigid, but you not realise it.
yOur question directed was not to ask what the chart was showing.
You was trying tell self that your position was good.
Is very clear that you had positions and was not asking market direction.
you was hinting your position.
Am I wrong?

there is no commander in chief on thread.
To your positions you was the commander in chief.
This is supposed be a learning thread.
Not a signals provider thread.
Try learn how not be rigid, and how do robust money manage, that you no need pray on positions.

God not trading, whatever happens on earth not affects God. Only Mankind.
When we ask help he shows the path, is for us to choose if we want follow.
Seems there was a rescue sent, but i not think was boarded.

regards

@ my friends, trade well.
I shall be around sometimes, but only to socialise.
Good Fortune.God Bless.
  • #38,514
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:20am Feb 1, 2013 9:20am
Quoting fti
@ my friends, trade well.
I shall be around sometimes, but only to socialise.
Good Fortune.God Bless.
See you soon and enjoy...
  • #38,515
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:24am Feb 1, 2013 9:24am
Quoting fti
oh, all my activities for trading had stopped.
is very evident findings that i had napped 3 times on the trade day inquestion.
apparently after the last nap, my mind regressed to before sleeping, and awaiting the fomc again.
Its very clear is time disorientation. Which means that my mind is unreliable when stressed.
This is very dangerous. And i have decided no more.

If you want learn the basics of how trade well.
Is already on thread.
For me retirement is safer, for me and for everyone else that is following the thread.

For you shaukat,...
best wishes, take care
  • #38,516
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:27am Feb 1, 2013 9:27am
Quoting fti
oh, all my activities for trading had stopped.
is very evident findings that i had napped 3 times on the trade day inquestion.
apparently after the last nap, my mind regressed to before sleeping, and awaiting the fomc again.
Its very clear is time disorientation. Which means that my mind is unreliable when stressed.
This is very dangerous. And i have decided no more.

If you want learn the basics of how trade well.
Is already on thread.
For me retirement is safer, for me and for everyone else that is following the thread.

For you shaukat,...
may be I can't explan (english is not my native languge) and not using correct way to ask a "Q", as for chart of cable, it was best way to ask
"did cable will return from that point or test that point".
actualy it is very hard to get rid of old habites, I stop my old trading style when start to reading the thread from start, I see my self as"old man" of the story.

I try to learn. knowing my weaknesses, I know my approach was not correct. but i am open to overcome those, willing to correct my self, want to learn. and same time I stop trading till transection period over how hknowa how much time I take, but one thing soure I am at cross rode and I pick correct way for my destination.
GOD bless you

regards.
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,517
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:37am Feb 1, 2013 9:37am
Quoting shaukat113
may be I can't explan (english is not my native languge) and not using correct way to ask a "Q", as for chart of cable, it was best way to ask
"did cable will return from that point or test that point".
actualy it is very hard to get rid of old habites, I stop my old trading style when start to reading the thread from start, I see my self as"old man" of the story.

I try to learn. knowing my weaknesses, I know my approach was not correct. but i am open to overcome those, willing to correct my self, want to learn. and same time I stop...
I am sorry for your loss.
But you violated 1st 2nd 3rd rules of trading.

best you want really learn you read thread and do demo trading.
and if you not understands things said,
Do the important thing, and ask peeps, some here have very good grasp of the MO already.

Good Luck, work hard & smart.
I pray God guide you well thru the good peeps on the thread.


regards
  • #38,518
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:42am Feb 1, 2013 9:42am
Quoting fti
I am sorry for your loss.
But you violated 1st 2nd 3rd rules of trading.

best you want really learn you read thread and do demo trading.
and if you not understands things said,
Do the important thing, and ask peeps, some here have very good grasp of the MO already.

Good Luck, work hard & smart.
I pray God guide you well thru the good peeps on the thread.


regards
all pleasure is mine
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,519
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:44am Feb 1, 2013 9:44am
Quoting shaukat113
may be I can't explan (english is not my native languge) and not using correct way to ask a "Q", as for chart of cable, it was best way to ask
"did cable will return from that point or test that point".


regards.
I like explain something.
No one able see future.
Only position in advantage.
No one knows.

When you trading.
You need keep adjusting your risk and expectations as markets unfold.

I understand your old habits .
Your mind is trying predict using old price information.
Old trader deception habit, esp those who use TA for predictive purposes.
I like say very clearly , is not possible.

Many had be deceived by the materials they have put in their head.
Just ask Dr Z he will understand you.
But i think he has overcome.

regards

Oh 1 more comment about the chart you showed but had removed.
There's nothing wrong with chart, its just that you reading it way way too slow.
you missing major turns.
  • #38,520
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:50am Feb 1, 2013 9:50am
what sign we should look before log/short position??
just live a life, don't be hard.
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