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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,221
  • Edited 2:20am Jan 30, 2013 1:36am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting tubguy
Fti my friend, I have a question and would love your input when you can.

I have come to realize that when trading I will inevitably be called away from my computer when in a rescue situation.

Being a single dad of 2 teen boys, it happens alot.

My question is : How do suggest I trade when I have no idea when I may need to leave?

It has caused me to have to kill my trades quite often and I just really realized that it was an issue for me.
tub, difficult situation.

reminds me of man who had 4 wifes. is difficult jiggling.

OK , if i was in such situation, what would i do?
I would probably do this, but this just me. So you need think and find the way for yourself.
I just trying to visualise what i would do if i was in such a situation.

Build into my MO is a system that distinguishes daylight limits and overnight(carry) limits.
overnight limits have in built capacity withstand at least 500 pip volitility.

I would probably postpone the rescue as i will not be monitoring markets.
Then size the trades to overnight limit size and leave it to nature until i can sit remanage it again.
if trade was in profits or breakeven, probably just square it for now.
same would be true for trades that are bias driven trades, where i trying ride it.
this probably what i would do.
I did promise Dr Z that I would be looking into reviving my studies of long tenure trading.
Have yet found MO thats suitable manage such MO without incooperating some gambling into it.
if i do manage atune that, i would put it up for discussions, but for now and had been for many years, not found it yet. sorry.

On a more personal note, another alternative is to find a partner manage the other commitments for you.
In line with dog whisperer's advice, i suggest a matured CALM SUBMISSIVE candidate to make life less hellish.

regards

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  • #38,222
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:47am Jan 30, 2013 1:47am
if all have same kind of thought the market would have same movement, one direction.
thats why the market fluctuate, and demand and supply working properly and price is determined.
i agree with all, and i have also my own thought, some how it match some how it is not, how ever market will run as mixing all.
the main moto is to make money being disciplined.

all the best..
  • #38,223
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:57am Jan 30, 2013 1:57am
Quoting peetee09
Good insights into big picture thinking thx fti :-)

Maybe the short player is up against the RB Japan? If Jap wants to weaken JPY they will buy EUR as well as USD

P
sorry la, there's no Royal Bank in Japan. I believe the Jap Emperor have left matters be managed by the BOJ under the guidance of their MOF.
they have little control of what happens to the usd or euro, why would they want do stuff in arenas that they have lesss control of than manage their own currency? Is not necessary to buy only other currencies. There lots of other switches.

Just watch their official press reports and the tankan reports as well as the keidianren reports will give you general sense of whats happening mostly.

regards
  • #38,224
  • Jan 30, 2013 2:07am Jan 30, 2013 2:07am
GOLD is in buying because of Physical buying of Asian traders......it may lift upto 1680...then will come back to 1629
then it will bounce back to 1700 InshALLAH.........

TODAY IN BUYING UPTO 1672
  • #38,225
  • Jan 30, 2013 2:16am Jan 30, 2013 2:16am
Quoting fti
tub, difficult situation.

reminds me of man who had 4 wifes. is difficult jiggling.

OK , if i was in such situation, what would i do?
I would probably do this, but this just me. So you need think and find the way for yourself.
I just trying to visualise what i would do if i was in such a situation.

Build into my MO is a system that distinguishes daylight limits and overnight(carry) limits.
overnight limits have in built capacity withstand at least 500 pip volitility.

I would probably postpone the rescue as i will not be monitoring markets.
Then...
500 pips volatality is a good way to go about with rescuing in such a way that if price 500 pips away from u, ur leverage not more than 2times ur equity.usually what happen is if ur wrong u will get out at breakeven.if one is alert one can skim the milk on higher position repeatedly and make lot of pips.regards
i am just went short the market at 1.2514.position size is 1/10th the equity.will add up more,feel like price should go back to 1.3125/1.3050.i can easily withstand a volatiltiy of 300 to 500 pips.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,226
  • Jan 30, 2013 2:42am Jan 30, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Army50000
GOLD is in buying because of Physical buying of Asian traders......it may lift upto 1680...then will come back to 1629
then it will bounce back to 1700 InshALLAH.........

TODAY IN BUYING UPTO 1672
hello, you new here.
welcome.
Gold is only a good store of value, IF, the system is reverting back to gold standard.
There are other important metal stores, with less advantages.

Although Gold and silver have been the de facto store of value, things have changed much since the last few decades.
Gold is no longer the convertable and medium of exchange anymore.
In fact is some countries has become ilegal to trade and own it.
Siver used to have store value as is base of the film industry.
But with the advent of digital tech, has lost its industrial value.

there left copper a necessity of anyone who wants transmit electricity.
and iron who's the core of any motors, and steel.

Also others like commodities, that makes the core of human needs, as in food shelter clothing.
Also basic energy needs as in oil, wood, coal.

These all basically are stores of value , except that some are not as durable, easily stored or easily convertable.

regards
  • #38,227
  • Edited 3:10am Jan 30, 2013 2:52am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting drzakir123
500 pips volatality is a good way to go about with rescuing in such a way that if price 500 pips away from u, ur leverage not more than 2times ur equity.usually what happen is if ur wrong u will get out at breakeven.if one is alert one can skim the milk on higher position repeatedly and make lot of pips.regards
i am just went short the market at 1.2514.position size is 1/10th the equity.will add up more,feel like price should go back to 1.3125/1.3050.i can easily withstand a volatiltiy of 300 to 500 pips.
i just remembered.
There was one man , lived in dad's era.
Had 6 wives, last count was 50+ children. 53 if not mistaken.
Medium of transport, OWNS a BUS.

No way i want live like that.
maybe is not 53, probbly even he cannot remember.
need check the manifest.


regards
  • #38,228
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 30, 2013 3:14am | Edited 3:34am
wow 1.35 bursted.

ok whole new world?
keep watching.

you know, here's 1 lesson.
many traders get indoctinated, buy here wait 1 year take profit there.
and they call themselves sucessful.

YOu know, is like open departmentstore sell 1 merchandise , good businessman.
everyone knows , for business stay alive, must manage cash flow and merchandism turnover.
Why is it that peeps can accept idea, buy here sell there. WHen is a daily managed affair.
I think is most ly because everyone ever looked at historical charts come to conclusion, there's no need to live.
They time travel.

Is way humans analyses things.
find one skeleton , oh my God, looks human and monkey.
So conclusion, we decendents of monkeys.
Now which monkey taught us with that propaganda?

Do you understand what a false witness is?
normally is make ass u me.

Now, where those human rights peeps?
abuse of our ancestors accptable, get them out of the cages.


regards
  • #38,229
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:33am Jan 30, 2013 3:33am
@ fti, sir.

second part!
I have to fight with myself befor start fight in the filed.

obuy the order of suprem command, don't use your own mind in the filed!!!!! you can see only few things commander see all picture.
retrace from one filed is not a meaning of our all defeat.

There is no better than adversity. Every defeat, every heartbreak, every loss, contains its own seed, its own lesson on how to improve your performance the next time.

The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
just wan to have a good commande in chief, I am fighter!!!!!!!!!!!!
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,230
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:38am Jan 30, 2013 3:38am
Quoting shaukat113
@ fti, sir.

second part!
I have to fight with myself befor start fight in the filed.

obuy the order of suprem command, don't use your own mind in the filed!!!!! you can see only few things commander see all picture.
retrace from one filed is not a meaning of our all defeat.

There is no better than adversity. Every defeat, every heartbreak, every loss, contains its own seed, its own lesson on how to improve your performance the next time.

The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity...
reading AOW?

oh 1 thing i like point out.
Fighting with self seldom have good ending.
someone gets killed. Is untinkable kill self, is called insanity.

Knowself, understand self.
Then find harmony in self, create peaceful garden within.

Hope i said correctly.

Ok let me try use dog terminology.
Rules, boundaries and limitations.
know the limits.
crossing them limits constitute no violation, only unless is regularly.
Only some trained, no rules, no boundaries, no limitations.
In real life ,always have rules, boundaries, and limits.
Is imparitive one knows them.
Whether one want abide by it, thats choice.


regards
  • #38,231
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:44am Jan 30, 2013 3:44am
the correct way to say is "Knowself, understand self.
Then find harmony in self, create peaceful garden within".

thank you!!

order no1 obyed!!!
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,232
  • Edited 4:10am Jan 30, 2013 3:52am | Edited 4:10am
When one looks at a chart, one only sees price ranges.
nothing else only price ranges.

Hypotetically i create 1 example.

lets say a market keeps falling.
one chart
one can see falling prices. But one not know that during that time there was market expectations of rate cuts.
that not show in charts
then there big reversal.
one can see big reversal on chart, but one not know that the authorities then decided that a rate cut was not appropriate at the time.
So market reverses.

So is important know self, know markets, as much as one can uncover.
so that know what one is doing.
If one ass u mes , then have 50% chance you right, and 50% chance is sunset.
after brokerage, odds is as good as in the casino games.
Ultimate wineers is the house.

You know, brokers are also humans, they not sit there take all the most sexual words we blast them with for no reason.
But they don't decide what you do.
So is up to the traders, how well, they trained do their work.
The difference of someone who is trained and someone who thinks he is trained.


regards

Again.
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  • #38,233
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:10am Jan 30, 2013 4:10am
"one can see falling prices. But one not know that during that time there was market expectations of rate cuts.
that not show in charts
then there big reversal.
one can see big reversal on chart, but one not know that the authorities then decided that a rate cut was not appropriate at the time.
So market reverses."


that is the point find force behind the move. all indecators charts etc. will fallow.
working on that idea, how one can smell these changes befor they occur!

for all my fellows here, "what will Bank of England do next??"
Does the chancellor want to set a new target for the Bank of England?
possible effect of week pound on Uk.
weather it is good to stay in EU?
Is it possible to quite from EU? If yes than, effect on EU and uk?
if not than effect upon uk, eu.

just for today discus!!!!!!!!

regards.
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,234
  • Edited 4:27am Jan 30, 2013 4:15am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting shaukat113
"one can see falling prices. But one not know that during that time there was market expectations of rate cuts.
that not show in charts
then there big reversal.
one can see big reversal on chart, but one not know that the authorities then decided that a rate cut was not appropriate at the time.
So market reverses."


that is the point find force behind the move. all indecators charts etc. will fallow.
working on that idea, how one can smell these changes befor they occur!

for all my fellows here, "what will Bank of England...

we only know there will be change of guards soon.
nothing else.
And i not heard any news or market talk about it anywhere yet.

Maybe is good we sing songs and wait? as none of us have any say in what will be done.
when they tell us, then we can respond.
and if no one want tell us, if we deteck unusual movement in markets we can investigate.

Basically the weakness of the cable is resting on what king hs told us.
he not welcome importing the inflation.

so for now, if the usd keeps devaluating, cable will follow to the diminishing returns point, then when they have new outlook.
I hope they will tell us.
Thats what the yen is doing also.
we know from euro cable crosses this not the outlook for the euro managers.

and please don't ask me why, they have their reasons.
and i not suppose that they will tell. Even girls never tells me why they marry this blook and not that one.
All we can do is analyse their behaviours and position advantagesly.


regards
  • #38,235
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:28am Jan 30, 2013 4:28am
I love fishing!
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just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,236
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:31am Jan 30, 2013 4:31am
Quoting shaukat113
I love fishing!
try fish this.

ever met a school of them?

regards
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  • #38,237
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:39am Jan 30, 2013 4:39am

Dr Z's cash registers ringing?

i best rest now, tonight will be interesting.
  • #38,238
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:47am Jan 30, 2013 4:47am
I have lot of "Q"

but one at a time.

Fitch scales back chance of U.S. rating downgrade.( effect??)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...90R0CB20130128
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,239
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:52am Jan 30, 2013 4:52am
"try fish this.

ever met a school of them?"


yes,
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,240
  • Jan 30, 2013 5:26am Jan 30, 2013 5:26am
A great example of the power of interest rates in the currency market occurred in August of 2006. At that time, the Bank of England surprised the market by raising its short-term rates from 4.5% to 4.75%. Interest rates for Japan were still at a low .25%.

The rise in England's interest rates widened the interest rate differential on the popular GBP/JPY cross from 425 basis points to 450 basis points. Investment money flowed into Great Britain as traders bought up pounds to take advantage of the new spread. As the demand for the GBP increased, the value of the GBP increased, and the spread between the currencies increased. This domino effect lead to a 700-point rally in the GBP/JPY over the next three weeks.

just live a life, don't be hard.
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