Harmonic Dance

1/26/2013
Weekend Analysis
And heres how i fit the przs. Notice there was a lot of compression and retracements. Im done for the weekend, enjoy! Hallelujah, one partial week completed! My goal is progressing nicely. Next week my goal is to focus on main and dominant swings and pull out a winning day or 2 Later!

1/26/2013
Weekend Analysis

Goals for next week:
1. 1 + profitable day
2. Integrate the usage of renko charts with 100 tick charts.
3. Focus on main and dominant swings.
See renko chart below, isnt it nice? I posted the equivalent tick chart for comparison. I think they will complement each other nicely!

1/28/2013

Summary:

Trades: 1
Trades Won: 1
Trades Lost: 0
Net Gain: +0.2 %
Trading Time: 6:00 - 10:00 CST

Synopsis
I need to work on what dominant/main swing to use, because there will always be nested main and dominant swings, and you'll miss alot if you just use the outermost main/dominant swing. See analysis.

1/28/2013

Trades
I entered at the 127 extension, however i did not use the main swing to find confluence (sort of nested in the previous main swing, but this main swing almost reached the top of the previous main swing). But it worked out anyways! 10 pip sl, lucky me.


This prz had more confluence in terms of overlapping fib retracements, not to mention a trendline and the 161 extension. Lesson learned: it doesnt have to go to the 127 extension, even if it is a relatively big local swing, especially if its rather small non locally. ALso small harmonics leading into it doesnt make it awesome, because they can easily be extended by larger harmonics.

MOST IMPORTANTLY! There was no price action, and it was sort of a steep dive (and i look for price action on steep dives). I dont know how to classify steep dives, because sometimes it can just bounce off an go up and then you would be disappointed.



PRZs
Besides the one above, the przs i considered are below. Mr pip racked up 90 or so pips, so clearly i missed alot, oh well. I also deleted some others while i was doing things, but these are the main ones i believe.

PRZ1 was the completion of an abcd of a large swing. I thought this swing would atleast cause a compression to occur (see prz2), but instead it formed a semi butterfly and obeyed the smaller abcd *sigh* (see prz3). Im thinking to hard. Also, it was technically a compression, but i thought it would go to the prz2 compression.


This was the compression of the main swing, it had that 127.2 extension thats *always* obeyed (rolls eyes) and furthermore it had some smaller harmonics leading into it (before it went down of course). Its also pretty much the same prz as PRZ1.



Finally, this is prz3. The end of an abcd, though i think i drew the prz wrong. I didn't trade it because i thought it would go to the higher prz.
There was also a semi butterfly that formed (semi because its not according to mr pips rules), but it did show up on the zup indicator on m15.

1/28/2013
In analysis 2, i will analyze mr pips trades so i can become better. But first analysis 1.

Analysis 1
First, my problem was nested main/dominant swings. Which one to use? so confusing.


Once I master this, everything will be awesome. Let that be a question for me to ponder. Ok, on to analysis 2.

Question
1. How do i handle main/dominant swings that are nested?
2. How do i define steep dives (impulse legs that i must use price action analysis to verify the prz)?
3. How do i know when to use impulse legs that make up a larger impulse leg for confluence?

1/28/2013
Analysis 2
First, Mr pip's trades today. Im trying to hard apparently. Time to simplify things!



Heres my comments. My excuse was i was confused by the main/dominant nested thing and also there was a pin bar on the abcd he entered, and i didn't have that. But, there was still confluence i missed there (see second chart below).


I missed this impulse leg, because the large impulse leg i was examining consisted of smaller impulse legs that i ignored. (this is mr pips chart)


K, im getting there!

1/28/2013
Goals
1. Utilize 5 minute chart to get a clearer picture of swings.
2. Get two profitable days in a row (this day included!)

Finished Goals
1. One day of profit Hallelujah !

1/28/2013
General
I am getting rid of renko charts, i will instead focus on 100 tick charts and 5 minute charts (to learn how to see swings better, recommended).

Also, i have a new format that i am converging to for everything.

Each day, Monday to Friday, the following sections will be listed.

1. Summary/Synopsis
2. Trades/PRZs
3. Analysis 1 + (with questions)
4. Goals
5. General

Next on the weekend, i will do a weekend analysis answering my questions that i have listed in the analysis sections. I will print my analysis out each week, because the analysis should include the most important lessons learned that week.

The general section is just for anything i like, general updates.

I'm glad i met goal 1, I wish i could trade 4 hours tomorrow, only can trade 1, too bad.

Signing out

1/29/2013

Summary:

Trades: 0
Trades Won: 0
Trades Lost: 0
Net Gain: 0
Trading Time: 9:30-10:30 CST

Synopsis
Nothing much happened, trading main and dominant legs reduces the amount of trades. Still confused on which legs I should trade (see trades/prz section)

1/29/2013

PRZ
I got in at the very end of a large abcd. not quite at the end, somewhere in the middle of the consolidation that occured at the top. I didn't short because it didn't reach the 127 zone. I defined some przs, one i could short from, one i could go long from, and i circled the bottom range of the consolidation wondering if i should buy from it (but that wouldnt be wise, didn't even reach 38.2 of large main swing.

Ive commented on the przs, im not sure if the presence of a larger main swing invalidates the przs.
edit: silly me, forgot to draw the fib extensions.

1/29/2013

Analysis
Questions
1. If the price just barely touches prz, does it mean i drew the prz wrong (it still responded to it right, so prz should've included the close price, right?)
2. Should the PRZ zone include the retracement value (which will sometimes make prz bigger!)
3. What does it mean for price to pause before a PRZ. I know before i said it will probably pierce it if it forms another structure, but this doesnt seem to be the case. Need to analyze further.

Goals
1. Two profitable days in a range of 3 days. One of the three days should atleast be breakeven.

General
None

1/29/2013
Analysis 2
I am going to start defining the sorts of fib extensions that are acceptable for me. It will based on the general ideal that harmonic impulses tend to travel a harmonic length of the most relevant harmonic impulse. Locally, this would mean that the harmonic impulses will travel in ratios related to the harmonic impulses that make up nearby swings/ nearby structures (like abcd). Globally, this might mean that the CD leg of a large ABCD is about to form, and it might just rocket up (travel a harmonic length of the relevant impulses of the larger structure). However, in this case it still travels a harmonic distance relative to nearby impulses, its just that I don't usually look at such large extensions.

Trend Correction Extensions
After bull trends, these extension will be used to project an area of support.

Extension Type 1
This will be used when there is a compressed abcd which completes the top of the trend.

an example from mr pips charts


Extension Type 2
This will be used when there is no compressed abcd which completes the top of the trend. However, there will be a large upspike before it goes down, we will use this upspike to project support.




Naturally, other forms of confluence, like retracements and incoming abcds should be used when possible to make it a higher probability trade.

1/29/2013
Analysis 3
I will give another example of trend correction fib extension type 1. Honestly, it doesn't 'look' like it could possibly hold, it looks like a top is forming and ready to go down. Also, the trend is rather small compared to the previous trends. But oh well, im following a rule to define a potential zone

1/29/2013
Analysis 4: GBPJPY Fib Extension Example
I came across this gbpjpy picture in a thread, and i saw the fib extension types i classified today, so i gave it a shot to see if it worked out. I know, it wasnt a live trade, but I was following rules.

1/29/2013

Analysis 5: USJDPY Example (didn't work)
I think im getting the hang of this. This one didnt work out, though it did pause at the prz and go up a little, if you were aggressive sl maybe breakeven. On the bright side, if you had offseted that larger impulse it ended right at the low of the swing! I love rules.
Also the second time the 127 extension was below the low, and it didn't reach that though it did spike.

It was potential anyways. This will be one of my case studies to study what works and what doesn't.

1/30/2013

Summary:

Trades: 3
Trades Won: 0
Trades Lost: 1
Trades Breakeven: 2
Net Gain: -0.1%
Trading Time: 6:00-9:45 CST

1/30/2013

Trades
1
This one i took off a non main and non dominant swing, but it was near the low c point of an ab = cd, so.... got stopped out @ be. If i had entered as i show 2 pictures below, i would've won this trade.

As you can see, i missed using the small impulse going down, and also missed the abcd extension (i think i used the cd extension anyways), but according to rules i should've used small abcd extension.


2
This one is also not really a trade i should've taken, because its not even above the previous dominant leg. also it paused before the prz, but it also paused before a previous prz so ....


3
abcd trade, got stopped out at be. Also, it was a butterfly. This was a fine trade i think, but it often goes back , hits be, and then goes forward. need to analyze this.



PRZs
This prz was wrong, if i had offset impulses right i would've made it. So, i need to make rules about offseting impulses, some time this week.

Correct prz.

1/30/2013
Analysis
No analysis, ill just post mr pips charts. Lots of trades before the completion of the abcd.

Questions
1. Can I enter before an ab = cd is done, and after the c, and when (yes, mr pip did it).
2. How do I know when/which impulse will override a PRZ i made and make it invalid (because you expect the larger impulse to push the price up, so you dont want to trade against it). This is with the general ideal that you want to take into account the largest harmonic wave, and dont go against it, but there are plenty of cases when mr pip does it, so it must be viable.

1/30/2013
General
I seem to miss a lot of trades because im stuck on using the largest main leg/dominant leg. From now on, i need to document the following, even if i dont trade it:

Types of Trades
1. Every AB = CD, ABCD opportunity that either occurs in the 61.8+zone of the dominant leg, or on a continuation of an abcd from close to the c point, or opportunities which rely on another impulse being classified as main (if there are multiple ones)
2. Every 78.6+ opportunity which also has convergence.
3. Every ab=cd, abcd, which pauses before prz
4. Every extended abcd opportunity (abcd which completes at the offset of an impulse)
5. Every Harmonic Pattern (gartley, butterfly, crab, etc)
6. Others PRZs where price atleast almost reaches (General Confluence)

In this manner, i might not take a trade, but my 'eyes' wont miss it. Theres a big difference there i think. Then i can learn which such trades i should actually take.

In the trade and prz section, i will classify the trades as one of the above types.

In addition i will continue to classify rules for things like offsetting impulses, types of extensions, as i learn.

Later

1/31/2013
Summary:

Trades: 1
Won: 0
Lost: 0
BE: 0
Net Gain: 0%
Trading Time: 9:30 - 10:30 CST

Synopsis
Missed the one good trade during this time period. I seriously need to stop thinking everything is going to be in a 1:1 impulse. Think confluence, not making one more important than the other.

I will not post my one trade today, it was a butterfly via an indicator and i realized it wasnt a butterfly according to my specific rules, so i got out of it at BE.