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  • #16,421
  • Jan 24, 2013 8:47am Jan 24, 2013 8:47am
Quoting jaylovin
When is your 4hr close? Mine happened at 2pm gmt
My broker is GMT time, 73 mins to go.
  • #16,422
  • Jan 24, 2013 9:07am Jan 24, 2013 9:07am
Quoting T@rantula
Potential new longs could be found between 3325-35 range as a retracement but before H4 close. Close of H4 candle below 3340 IS NOT favoured for bulls.
Here it comes it was 3336 and its 3370 ))
  • #16,423
  • Jan 24, 2013 10:48am Jan 24, 2013 10:48am
ok jsut got to the computer... looks like we may end up with more of this range bound business... i am not gonna trade for a while - until this breaks out one way or another...
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  • #16,424
  • Jan 25, 2013 2:09am Jan 25, 2013 2:09am
Here we are. The triangle has been broken. We have 3 bar bullish continuation pattern on h4. Targets for the move are 3435 as FULL ATR projection break of it leads to 3460 and 3486. If fundies work in favor of EU we should have a nice 100+ pip move.

Supports are 3384 3365 and 3350.

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This can be read also on my Forex BLOG.
  • #16,425
  • Jan 25, 2013 3:15am Jan 25, 2013 3:15am
Quoting T@rantula
. Targets for the move are 3435 as FULL ATR projection break of it leads to 3460 and 3486.
3435 reached
  • #16,426
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:09am Jan 25, 2013 4:09am
As presumed 3435 was a consolidation point, we could reach 3486 later in the day.
  • #16,427
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:35am Jan 25, 2013 4:35am
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Today's London Progression- 40 pips cca, some profit taking now. Look at the pattern 3 bar bullish continuation, perfectly played out. Buy into dips. 3380 is intraday support, 3405-18 could be good for next buy.

We need retracement to go long again if u closed ur orders or scaled out. I closed finally on 3447, waiting for a swing to buy the dip.
  • #16,428
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:58am Jan 25, 2013 4:58am
3450. This is bank selling. London usually takes profit on Fridays around NOON GMT with 1h +/- deviation. 3415 is 38.2 fib.
  • #16,429
  • Jan 25, 2013 5:12am Jan 25, 2013 5:12am
You see 3415, 38.2 fib reaction Perfect retrace to go long again.
  • #16,430
  • Jan 25, 2013 7:07am Jan 25, 2013 7:07am
3460 has been reached as we saw buy the dips works wonders today.

First swing was 3405-3450 then we had 2nd swing ( read above) where I posted about 3415 and that was 3411-3460 then 3rd swing 3430-66. Room to 3486 is open.
  • #16,431
  • Edited 7:31am Jan 25, 2013 7:18am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting T@rantula
3460 has been reached as we saw buy the dips works wonders today.

First swing was 3405-3450 then we had 2nd swing ( read above) where I posted about 3415 and that was 3411-3460 then 3rd swing 3430-66. Room to 3486 is open.

Yes i also have 3484 as the next target.... i am sitting back and waiting for a swing... now PA is also starting to look exhausted so i look for prices higher that would be good to short from.. i know trend is your friend etc... but we could get lucky enough to short for good RR...

1.3496 then 1.3546 would imo be a place to look for a short providing indi's agree and PA is struggling in this area... for now no trade...
  • #16,432
  • Jan 25, 2013 7:33am Jan 25, 2013 7:33am
Quoting jaylovin
Yes i also have 3484 as the next target.... i am sitting back and waiting for a swing... now PA is also starting to look at exhausted so i look for prices higher that would be good to short from.. i know trend is your friend etc... but we could get lucky enough to short for good RR...

1.3496 then 1.3546 would imo be a place to look for a short providing indi's agree and PA is struggling in this area... for now no trade...
Be careful as today is PROFIT TAKING day. Yes price can turn upside down but if shorts starts to cover and close the positions opening a short position wont be wise.

Look how I did today:

I opened a position at the break of 3405 ( i ANNOUNCED that i would do that many times in the thread), 3409 was my entry then I drove it to 3435. Closed. Then I waited for that 3415 got in ( that was the 2nd swing) and closed at 3460. I havent exploited 3rd swing ( 3427-3466) as I already made my daily profit target.

SO when we are in uptrend especially when the trend is BOOSTED by good fundies we can always ENTER on RETRACEMENT per SWING. So even if u had entered high for example on that 2nd swing, lets say 3450 u could have added around 3430 as that was almost 38.2 of 2nd swing. So that is not ADDING TO A LOSER, i call that ADDING TO RETRACEMENT and that is one of great ways to keep the profit and make additional profit. Of course u need to apply good MM , but that is perfectly fine.

So adding to retracement is what saves the day if u make a mistake on a strong TRENDING day.
  • #16,433
  • Jan 25, 2013 7:42am Jan 25, 2013 7:42am
Quoting T@rantula
Be careful as today is PROFIT TAKING day. Yes price can turn upside down but if shorts starts to cover and close the positions opening a short position wont be wise.

Look how I did today:

I opened a position at the break of 3405 ( i ANNOUNCED that i would do that many times in the thread), 3409 was my entry then I drove it to 3435. Closed. Then I waited for that 3415 got in ( that was the 2nd swing) and closed at 3460. I havent exploited 3rd swing ( 3427-3466) as I already made my daily profit target.

SO when we are in uptrend especially...

agree with what you are saying and i don't plan to trade today, neither do i expect to see 1.35 today... so i must learn to stay patient.. i am planning to swing trade so i spend less time in front of markets.. don't feel like i should be spending more time watching price go up and down - its not healthy
  • #16,434
  • Jan 25, 2013 7:52am Jan 25, 2013 7:52am
Quoting jaylovin
agree with what you are saying and i don't plan to trade today, neither do i expect to see 1.35 today... so i must learn to stay patient.. i am planning to swing trade so i spend less time in front of markets.. don't feel like i should be spending more time watching price go up and down - its not healthy
Dont let the last 2 week moves make u nervous mate. I hope that u have traded that 3405 breakout. I mean, I have been patient more then a week, exploiting ups and downs, covering etc, but today is the day I have been waiting for.
  • #16,435
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:18am Jan 25, 2013 9:18am
Quoting T@rantula
Dont let the last 2 week moves make u nervous mate. I hope that u have traded that 3405 breakout. I mean, I have been patient more then a week, exploiting ups and downs, covering etc, but today is the day I have been waiting for.
i didnt trade the breakout... missed it so yes buy the dips right now.... but as you know my day job has been taking over most of my days which i prefer and i have been neglecting it lately which can do a lot of damage to me and my persona.. - it is my livelihood so the only way to get the best of both worlds is to swing trade for me...

over 3546 we got 1.37, 38.. even 1.41... so no trading till a swing opportunity comes up...
  • #16,436
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:27am Jan 25, 2013 9:27am
15 Minute Chart

Playing a little short scalp back towards 3440 after a 2bar engulfing top reversal, second break out rejection of 3465-3470 which closed back below the high of that wide range upbar. Pending has triggered at 34595 whilst I was putting together this post and chart. Countertrend yes but just a scalp playing the retraces and levels.

SL at 34745 (15 pips), TP 1 at 34445 and then to BE on part 2 to see what reactions we get on the dip...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,437
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:56am Jan 25, 2013 9:56am
Quoting pres78
15 Minute Chart

Playing a little short scalp back towards 3440 after a 2bar engulfing top reversal, second break out rejection of 3465-3470 which closed back below the high of that wide range upbar. Pending has triggered at 34595 whilst I was putting together this post and chart. Countertrend yes but just a scalp playing the retraces and levels.

SL at 34745 (15 pips), TP 1 at 34445 and then to BE on part 2 to see what reactions we get on the dip...
'

Well she was countertrend and I was stopped out but I do not feel like it was a bad trade and I would take it again. Even after the next two 15 min bars closed I still felt that short was a safe play.

Ah well onto the next one.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,438
  • Jan 25, 2013 11:25am Jan 25, 2013 11:25am
Quoting pres78
'

Well she was countertrend and I was stopped out but I do not feel like it was a bad trade and I would take it again. Even after the next two 15 min bars closed I still felt that short was a safe play.

Ah well onto the next one.
I never play any retracements when we have strong trending days. Its always sell/buy into retracement. following the trend. Technically ur trade was valid, but experience says - dont mess with it . If u are eager to trade countertrend use smaller lot size, always.
  • #16,439
  • Jan 25, 2013 1:08pm Jan 25, 2013 1:08pm
Hi friends,

sorry for not posting much the last days. Have been busy........



Murrey Math and momentum analysis



monthly TF:

risk @ 3672, chance @ 1719 and below; selling favored while below of 3672; break of 3916 gives force to the bulls


weekly TF:

risk @ 3672, chance @ 2695; selling favored while below of 3550; break of 3550 gives force to the bulls


daily TF:

risk @ 3489, extended to 3550, chance @ 3245 and 3187; selling against 3489 favored with SL just behind 3550


4h TF:

risk @ 3489 and probably octave jump with more bullish implications; chance @ 3336 to 3306; selling against 3489 favored



1h TF

risk @ 3489 and probably octave jump with more bullish implications; chance @ 3336 to 3306; selling against 3489 favored



15min TF


risk @ 3489, extended moves to 3519 and finally 3550, chance @ 3428, extended to 3412; selling favored near 3489; buying near 3428



Overall conclusion:

Pressure is to the upper side, but momentum is waning with multiple bearish divergences on nearly all TF's; 3550 and especially 3672 are kind of magnetic now. Break of 3489 on 1h and 4h to the upper side will result in a bullish octave jump.

My statistical model shows next strong resistances against 3550 and 3672.

My statistical model gives fairly strong sell signals now @ 1h, 4h, daily and weekly TF, but advises to wait on 15min and monthly


3489 to 3550 would be a good sell zone with very good R:R


Short positions can be taken now around 3460-3450 but with lower leverage.
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  • #16,440
  • Jan 25, 2013 3:40pm Jan 25, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi friends,

sorry for not posting much the last days. Have been busy........



Murrey Math and momentum analysis



monthly TF:

risk @ 3672, chance @ 1719 and below; selling favored while below of 3672; break of 3916 gives force to the bulls


weekly TF:

risk @ 3672, chance @ 2695; selling favored while below of 3550; break of 3550 gives force to the bulls


daily TF:

risk @ 3489, extended to 3550, chance @ 3245 and 3187; selling against 3489 favored with...
Hey Markus,

Thanks very much for this useful info mate. I agree with you. I have 3486 , it almost came today, if it breaks 3550 will be the target. For momentum scalps 3486-90 is favored at first touch. Will also post price analysis on Sunday night.
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