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  • #16,381
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:19am Jan 18, 2013 7:19am
Quoting pres78
3305 reached now to see what the reaction is. True weakness should take us to at least 3280 today (maybe that 3265 but that would be about it as that would be a large daily range. We hit that 3400 high this time with a much quicker reaction downward (last time on the 14th it took 28 hours to break 3350 for the first time).

Perhaps this will still end up playing out at strength and this is simply a SO / cleansing of the market so they can take out 3400. Early NY session should give some clues... although it is Friday.
Quoting T@rantula
Hello guys,



We are currently having a retracement and it might have already been completed ( 1.3336). If that is the case we can expect another thrust up. Remember 1.3336 is major support now and the target to the bullish side still is 3425. If 3336 breaks 3305 is possible as it is 4/8 pivotal point of MM and it points to new buy/sell.
.
Here mate,it was that 3336 that has been broken, and 3305 is 4/8 MM - best new buy or sell. But who would sell @ 3305 . 3305 blind long for a scalp trade. I have also written that on my blog for ex yu traders.

3336>3305 then 3305 long scalp.

This also fakes novice traders who sell into major supports ( 3305) before analyzing the market.

Quoting pres78
Perhaps this will still end up playing out at strength and this is simply a SO / cleansing of the market (and profit taking as T. mentions) so they can buy back in lower and take out 3400 (now next week). Early NY session should give some clues... although it is Friday.
I mean i know 3336>3305 isnt a big trade ( because there are traders who sold around the tops) but trading gradually and analyzing the market every hour gives us opportunities to enter multiple times, following the BIG players and not be greedy keeping the MM right.
  • #16,382
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:40am Jan 18, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Munal
Yes Sir, Much more that's right... that's just a visual presentation.

But for those who are interested can visit once http://wintrend.com/MurreyMath.aspx to get some idea on it.....
For all interested in Murrey Math find many links to good stuff at the first page of Shangri-La thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=329948

and scroll a bit down. There is a section "Murrey Math"
  • #16,383
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:41am Jan 18, 2013 7:41am
If price does ABC the price should do XYZ.Thanks T and other member have a great weekend.
  • #16,384
  • Jan 18, 2013 8:29am Jan 18, 2013 8:29am
Quoting infinitus
For all interested in Murrey Math find many links to good stuff at the first page of Shangri-La thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=329948

and scroll a bit down. There is a section "Murrey Math"

Excellent stuff. Worth checking out. A lot more infos then usual MM explanation.

Quoting Munal
If price does ABC the price should do XYZ.Thanks T and other member have a great weekend.
Thanks mate, excellent views from your part and I expect more to come from you in upcoming week. Have a nice weekend !
  • #16,385
  • Jan 18, 2013 9:21am Jan 18, 2013 9:21am
Just noticed you have a blog is there a filter to put it in english?
  • #16,386
  • Jan 18, 2013 9:23am Jan 18, 2013 9:23am
Quoting kodflakes
Just noticed you have a blog is there a filter to put it in english?
Aw not at the moment, its only available in EX YU language ( Serbo-Croatian), but the analysis can also be read here in the thread in English.
  • #16,387
  • Jan 18, 2013 1:25pm Jan 18, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting pres78
3305 reached now to see what the reaction is. True weakness should take us to at least 3280 today (maybe that 3265 but that would be about it as that would be a large daily range. We hit that 3400 high this time with a much quicker reaction downward (last time on the 14th it took 28 hours to break 3350 for the first time).

Perhaps this will still end up playing out at strength and this is simply a SO / cleansing of the market (and profit taking as T. mentions) so they can buy back in lower and take out 3400 (now next week). Early NY session should...
Lovely Friday afternoon...

We hit 3280 bang on during the last hour of London trading and then saw some obvious end of day / week sellers profit taking. The afternoon thus far post London has given us a great 38.2 retrace from the low. Those 50 and 100 MA's are still close together and just above the current PA.

Neat how that UT bar right before the final push down had it's high right into that 3334 level T. has mentioned and also hits right into the crossing MA's. The high of that most recent bar drove up into this area as well before closing back below that 38.2% level. We can drift up all afternoon if no one is selling but I would suspect we are not going much higher. If anything maybe 50% of today at that nice 3340 level or perhaps sideways or even down a touch to end the week.

Overall EU is still very much in an uptrend and today's daily candle IMHO shows that this is the case. I think we will no doubt see that 3400 level taken out next week.

Have a great weekend everybody.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,388
  • Jan 20, 2013 1:17pm Jan 20, 2013 1:17pm
Murrrey Math and momentum analysis:



monthly TF:

risk @ 3672, chance @ 1719 and below; selling favored while below of 3672; break of 3916 gives force to the bulls


weekly TF:

risk @ 3428, chance @ 2695; selling favored while below of 3428; break of 3489 gives force to the bulls


daily TF:

risk @ 3428 to 3489, chance @ 3184 and 3062; selling favored while below of 3428; break of 3489 gives force to the bulls


4h TF:

risk @ 3275 to 3245, chance @ 3336 and 3367; buying against 3275 and 3245, selling against 3336 and 3367; break of 3397 will exhibit 3428; break of 3245 will exhibit 3184 and below


1h TF

risk @ 3367, chance @ 3275 and below; 3351 should hold; a break of that, especially with break of 3367 may exposit new highs; break of 3275 will force n octave jump with more bearish implications


15min TF


risk @ 3283, chance @ 3367; buying favored while above 3283; buy recomendation @ 3306, 3290 and 3283; target for the up-move 3336 to 3367 whit emphasis to the latter




Conclusion:

I await firstly more upside action towards 3336 to 3367; after that we shall see declining prices towards 3246 and 3184
  • #16,389
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:59am Jan 21, 2013 1:59am
Quoting infinitus
Murrrey Math and momentum analysis:



[/b]
Thanks for the thorough analysis of MM levels mate. Its something we need to know.

I can see we have a double top on h4 timeframe and we have a possible M pattern in progression. But still bulls are in control while the price is held above 3250. Only a nice breakout below 2950 can give the strength to bears and the price target goes to 3125. At the moment we have a retracement and we still dont know how deep retracement will be.

To the downside if 3302 is broken 3295 and 3275 are next then possibly 3255 retest. Above 3335 3350 and 3370 are targets. Dont forget that today it should be a range play as US banks are having a holiday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can also read the analysis on my FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,390
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:52am Jan 21, 2013 5:52am
probably better to take the day off.. i have 1.3291 yet to get hit... from there it can bounce up to 1.3376...

agree if we close below 1.3250 then we can see 1.3140 an it may go down there fast... better to wait... not gonna trade today... will probably do more damage than good to account
  • #16,391
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:59am Jan 21, 2013 5:59am
Quoting jaylovin
probably better to take the day off.. i have 1.3291 yet to get hit... from there it can bounce up to 1.3376...

agree if we close below 1.3250 then we can see 1.3140 an it may go down there fast... better to wait... not gonna trade today... will probably do more damage than good to account
Yes take the day off. Its range bound as expected and I personally dont wanna be trapped in a trade that has no manageable momentum.
  • #16,392
  • Jan 21, 2013 7:51am Jan 21, 2013 7:51am
Quoting T@rantula
Thanks for the thorough analysis of MM levels mate. Its something we need to know.

I can see we have a double top on h4 timeframe and we have a possible M pattern in progression. But still bulls are in control while the price is held above 3250. Only a nice breakout below 2950 can give the strength to bears and the price target goes to 3125. At the moment we have a retracement and we still dont know how deep retracement will be.

To the downside if 3302 is broken 3295 and 3275 are next then possibly 3255 retest. Above 3335 3350 and 3370 are...


Hi mate,

completely agree
  • #16,393
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:51am Jan 22, 2013 5:51am
Quoting T@rantula
I can see we have a double top on h4 timeframe and we have a possible M pattern in progression. But still bulls are in control while the price is held above 3250. Only a nice breakout below 2950 can give the strength to bears and the price target goes to 3125. At the moment we have a retracement and we still dont know how deep retracement will be.

To the downside if 3302 is broken 3295 and 3275 are next then possibly 3255 retest. Above 3335 3350 and 3370 are targets. Dont forget that today it should be a range play as US banks are having a holiday.

Attachment ...
As we can see everything has happened as planned. Below 3302 3275 was retested then 3255 held. 3270-50 was heavily bought and here we are. Demand zone is shown on the chart.

We are still bullish and we need to go through 3405 major level to the upside to test 3425 and 3485 subsequently.
  • #16,394
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:58am Jan 22, 2013 5:58am
It would be nice if EU makes a retest of 3320-30 region. Those moves, spikes in both directions are caused by weekend closing and US bank holidays, orders have been swept through the charts making a Frankie fake a real fake move but expected.
  • #16,395
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:56am Jan 22, 2013 6:56am
Lets see 3320 support if it fails we will have another push down to 3303 , if it holds another leg up is expected.
  • #16,396
  • Jan 22, 2013 7:13am Jan 22, 2013 7:13am
Very nasty moves, best demand ( buying) region has been 3270-55 so far, everything else is screwed atm as this is a really wide range trading.

3310 is interim support now with 3303 being strong one.
  • #16,397
  • Edited 10:03am Jan 22, 2013 9:36am | Edited 10:03am
And this might be again..the region I have mentioned above... EU is in a wide range and there as we could have seen on the chart I posted yesterday there was a double top and today we have witnessed that in despite of VERY STRONG buying it failed to penetrate the double top at 3400 region.

3270-55 is demand region break of it targets 3220 and 3180 respectively. Draghi speaks later today so volatility should again be high.

Details also on my FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,398
  • Jan 23, 2013 4:25am Jan 23, 2013 4:25am
We still have that range 3255-3405. I WILL trade a breakout of that range for sure. But for now we can only concentrate on trading smaller TF's as it is hard to pinpoint where the price will go. It is indeed bullish but it still doesnt have the power to break that 3404 level.

SO trade step by step and trade the BREAKOUT for sure.

You can read this on my Forex Blog too.
  • #16,399
  • Jan 23, 2013 6:37am Jan 23, 2013 6:37am
This move points to 3369 first where it should find resistance, next on table should be 3400 retest, supports are 3335 and 3320 on smaller TFs.
  • #16,400
  • Jan 23, 2013 6:43am Jan 23, 2013 6:43am
today may very well be the day we see this break out... i am favouring bull currently... so only looking for longs... lets see
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