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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #1,421
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:30am Jan 21, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Davit
put this on your chart.Left lower is an example.
can't thank you more, Davit!!

yours,

shunfeng
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #1,422
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:37am Jan 21, 2013 11:37am
Quoting Ryuken
Every event,holiday what is important for a trader is listen on the FF calendar,right on the main page.

C-12 im very thankfull for this awesome thread,i have readed everything,the trades you posted really inspired me, i hope i will soon start posting here some nice trades too
actually I check the FF calendar on a regular basis, however, I filtered out all the news not IN RED. (Too much info, no info)

Now with the indy from Davit, I think i could have a better vision about where I am in X line.

Anyway, thanks for your reminder!

yours,

shunfeng
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #1,423
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:02pm Jan 21, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting C-12
If you feel ill, anxious, unsure of what levels to take, not happy with the general price action - Turn the monitor off and come back later!
This. Huge part of emotional intelligence / trading psychology is identifying when you're not in a state to make good execution decisions and limit yourself accordingly. This is also a required skill if you want any long term success with discretionary trading methods.

(How'd you get commercialized? Not just the thread, but yourself? )
FXGears.com
  • #1,424
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:08pm Jan 21, 2013 12:08pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
This. Huge part of emotional intelligence / trading psychology is identifying when you're not in a state to make good execution decisions and limit yourself accordingly. This is also a required skill if you want any long term success with discretionary trading methods.

(How'd you get commercialized? Not just the thread, but yourself? )
Well, I opened up another chart and discussion thread to support another site (Ace Gazette). It's a completely free site but the mods have clearly taken issue with it and dumped me and this thread into the commercial section with it.

Absolutely spot on with the psychology side, which is why I recommend everyone to read and fully digest your thread on the subject.
  • #1,425
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:13pm Jan 21, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting fxfury
Wish there was a like button on FF, good trading c-12 as usual.

I got in long EU and was like holy mother of god why is this thing coiling so much and then went to check the news, saw bank holiday closed the position up and am walking away for a better tomorrow lol.

I was gonna post saying your thread is probably going to be moved but I didnt want to bring unncessary attention to that, hopefully people are still able to find the thread cause that commercial forum becomes a ghost town or at least tends to hide the good stuff.
You're right. I was also warned that this may happen. I didn't think they'd drag this one into here as well.
  • #1,426
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:18pm Jan 21, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting C-12
There are 3 drawbacks to this strategy... Or for any scalping method.

1) Discipline
2) Discipline
3) Discipline

If you stick to the rules (ie 6 pip hard stop) and take entries off quality levels (ideally in sync with the higher timeframe) and get to BE fast (after around 6 pips or so) then you'll make a killing with this.

If you move stops, trade for the sake of trading, pick higher time frame tops and bottoms on M1 then I can guarantee your account will suffer.

I can't stress this enough.

Also, mindset is the key to this and...

I allow myself putting together all your three posts regarding to my question, I will review all of what you showed here regularly in the future. It is nice to read from someone who trades consistently.

First of all, thanks for all your precious answers to me!

What I've already integrated (at least I think I've had):

trading in the right session
In Europa, normally the market begins to give a "tradable" move on the EURO GBP CHF pairs from GMT0700. I've learned from some traders working for those giants (UBS, Morgan Stanley, etc.) in London that they start their work at GMT0630 and finish their day at GMT1830. (some of them works still later as one part of the Frankfurt stock market closes as late as GMT0900)

position size calc. and risk management
50000 *1%= 500 pounds and with 6 pips, that gives 1pip==83.3pound, it would be a quite significant position of course.
my max position is always 1% of my humble total equity as I am quite a caucious person.

hard small stop loss
For an ECN for the pairs with high liquidity, 6 pips is OK.
even EUR/JPY gives only occasionally 1.5pips spread, but with proper entry location, 6 pips would be enough for uncertainty tolerance.
Before, I traded with 4 pips hard stop, and this is basically why I appreciate your thread, as we shared the same tight stop loss!!

Mindset
"Let the market beg you to trade, instead of chasing it!"
that is what I've learned after my +3000 trades.
Thanks for your reminder, the main challenge in trading, imo, is to learn to "give up all the inappropriate", not to "take every opportunity".

what I didn't catch very well are the followings, sorry that English is not my mother tongue:

"If you move stops, trade for the sake of trading, pick higher time frame tops and bottoms on M1 then I can guarantee your account will suffer. "
do you mean that if you move stop loss "backward", which means make the stop loss "larger than 6 pips"?
and do you mean that move the stop loss to the location which is "behind" of higher time frame tops and/or bottoms will NOT help at all and would only increase the loss?

Also another question:

do you use any pivot point, key fibonacci levels, etc. in your trading system or just with the S/D level is totally OK to trade profitably?

thanks again for your three posts!

yours,

shunfeng
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #1,427
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:28pm Jan 21, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting shunfeng
"If you move stops, trade for the sake of trading, pick higher time frame tops and bottoms on M1 then I can guarantee your account will suffer. "
do you mean that if you move stop loss "backward", which means make the stop loss "larger than 6 pips"?
and do you mean that move the stop loss to the location which is "behind" of higher time frame tops and/or bottoms will NOT help at all and would only increase the loss?

Also another question:

do you use any pivot point, key fibonacci levels, etc. in your trading system or just...
Yeah I mean moving stop beyond 6 pips or trade higher time frame levels with a tight 6 pip stop. I've also tried without a stop and averaging in with a rescue position and I've found this works occasionally but damages your account mostly (in a big way).

You can trade S&D levels without any indicators yes. I use a couple (supdem_ii and chaos semafor) and my order management EA. I do plot the occasional fib on higher timeframes but no pivot points any more.
  • #1,428
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:51pm Jan 21, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Davit
put this on your chart.Left lower is an example.
sorry to bother you, Davit!

but on my chart the indicator for the FF calender seems not working properly......

you've got an idea about the potential problem?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF calendar.JPG Size: 146 KB
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #1,429
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:55pm Jan 21, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting C-12
Yeah I mean moving stop beyond 6 pips or trade higher time frame levels with a tight 6 pip stop. I've also tried without a stop and averaging in with a rescue position and I've found this works occasionally but damages your account mostly (in a big way).

You can trade S&D levels without any indicators yes. I use a couple (supdem_ii and chaos semafor) and my order management EA. I do plot the occasional fib on higher timeframes but no pivot points any more.
my sincere thanks, C-12!

I've got your idea.

If my sl is 4 pips, I SHOULD NEVER move it "back", always ONLY in the profit direction.

with M5 TF or even higher TF, 6 or 4 pips is a little bit too much tight, I usually take 10pips for any trade based on the analysis on M5.
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #1,430
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:38pm Jan 21, 2013 1:38pm
If your looking for a news alert try this, a FF member coded it, time shift,filter, alarm etc.

http://www.fxnewsalert.com/

Thanks C-12 for posting the psychology stuff been taking it in. Scalping is not for the faint hearted for sure.
  • #1,431
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:53pm Jan 21, 2013 1:53pm
I was just sat at work killing time and found this old Sam Seiden scalping webinar. This is pretty much what my 1 minute method was originally based off.

Well worth a watch and some very interesting thoughts on whether to try and run these trades or just take 2:1 and run.

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...8-e82f6164f013
  • #1,432
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:35pm Jan 21, 2013 2:35pm
Hi C-12,

So you our basically looking at 5,15,30m TF S/D and then trading it on the 1min.
Am I correct.
  • #1,433
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:45pm Jan 21, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting Jane_peters
Hi C-12,

So you our basically looking at 5,15,30m TF S/D and then trading it on the 1min.
Am I correct.
My charting layout these days is now H4 / H1 / M15 / M5.

I try and get an idea of where price is likely to be heading and then I'm marking off my levels and executing off the M1 chart.

My internal debate going on is whether I should run these trades or take my 12 or 18 pips and just close out. I had a trade run 22 pips today that I allowed to come back and stop me out for BE.
  • #1,434
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:15pm Jan 21, 2013 3:15pm
Ok I get you, So let say there is a supply level on the 1h. so u go down to 15m to make it more accurate. Then to 5m. And then finally wait for price to touch it on 1min and pull the trigger.
  • #1,435
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:29pm Jan 21, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting Jane_peters
Ok I get you, So let say there is a supply level on the 1h. so u go down to 15m to make it more accurate. Then to 5m. And then finally wait for price to touch it on 1min and pull the trigger.
This can work but price will usually stall when inside H1 levels and bounce around for a while. I prefer to use H1 and the other levels as a guide to figure out direction (short term trend) and use M1 to get in sync with it.

Although I have had very long runners (300+ pips once) off an M1 level, you really only need 20 pips per day and can make some very nice income.

If you watch the Sam Seiden's video from above, the first 20 mins you'll see he shows price reject off M30 supply and then he's on the M2 looking for levels to short off.
  • #1,436
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:35pm Jan 21, 2013 3:35pm
Oh right , so the levels you short and long from our the levels on the 1min. The levels on 1h just give you direction.
  • #1,437
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:37pm Jan 21, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting Jane_peters
Oh right , so the levels you short and long from our the levels on the 1min. The levels on 1h just give you direction.
Yep that's it.

There's a nice series of charts I put together, a really great live example of using the M1 to get on board a short term higher time frame trend.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6179783
  • #1,438
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:29pm Jan 21, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting shunfeng
sorry to bother you, Davit!

but on my chart the indicator for the FF calender seems not working properly......

you've got an idea about the potential problem?
Please click on indicator Edit-Common-Click on Allow DLL imports
That should fix it
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,439
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:30pm Jan 21, 2013 4:30pm
Very high probability of Euro tanking to 3150
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,440
  • Jan 21, 2013 8:20pm Jan 21, 2013 8:20pm
This was my first S&D type trade on the lower LTF's. Price was moving pretty fast for my strategy so I decided to try shorting at a possible supply level. It worked out for about 45 pips. I was surprised how fast it fell. This is a 5min chart for EJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
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