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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,061
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:22am Jan 20, 2013 6:22am
Quoting Jairo
Fti, thanks for taking your time speaking again about your past experience with programming. I was burned by trying to play with volatility, a seemingly "constant" in the market. The idea: "to shift 1 the market goes 1000 up and down. So let's play with it. Both ways, since I cannot predict direction." Big mistake. Volatiliy is market maker's play. They are in control. They have the capital. When the up/down is finished, the automated kids playing with fire will always get burned. I learned the hard way. With this experience and knowing that...
i see you learned 1st hand.
yes volatility is a constant, constantly changing.
yes is not only market makers play, also is the biggest play by long swords.
Thats the greek thats untamed.
they use historical averages tame it, but still need get the parameters right for any meaningful ability manage it.
There's basically 2 types volatility.
The historical and the implied. Makes it a chore manage both as a couple.
one is the past , the other is the future possibilities.

i pray you can recover from your ordeal and move ahead a little wiser.

regards
  • #38,062
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:27am Jan 20, 2013 6:27am
Quoting M-H Trader
Automated trading is the business now. All banks and hedge funds are looking for now is programers physicists, and mathematicians to build models. Algorithmic trading completely dominates stock market and is taking over Forex as well.
yes the new toys.
we watch and see how it goes.
meantime we still need make a living.

regards
  • #38,063
  • Edited 8:10am Jan 20, 2013 6:30am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting Jairo
I see now EAs as tools. You may have an arsenal of them but you must know how they work and you decide when to turn them on and off according to your market view. I seriuosly doubt there will ever be a reliable and completely automated program that could make human supervision unnecessary.
yes, but problem is to know if bayonet is more effective or sidearm or rifle or bazooka.
now thats a puzzle isn't it.
if one have the foresight. is easy know which to carry.

For me i like watch em and change arsenals when i see them change theirs.
If i carrying khukri and i see tank coming, unless i have bazooka, i run for cover. fight another day another place.


regards
  • #38,064
  • Edited 8:58am Jan 20, 2013 8:47am | Edited 8:58am
Quoting fti
yes the new toys.
we watch and see how it goes.
meantime we still need make a living.

regards
I'm sure you have herd quite a bit about them form your connections. There are lots of very very successful firms using them. Some have had zero losing days in years.
  • #38,065
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:57am Jan 20, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Jairo
I see now EAs as tools. You may have an arsenal of them but you must know how they work and you decide when to turn them on and off according to your market view. I seriuosly doubt there will ever be a reliable and completely automated program that could make human supervision unnecessary.
Yeah retail algorithmic trading is a joke. I am not saying you cant make money, but too many bugs and high latency with crappy retail platforms. No one turns on a bot and walks out the door, they are actively monitored and adjusted daily.
  • #38,066
  • Edited 10:39am Jan 20, 2013 9:01am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting M-H Trader
I'm sure you have herd quite a bit about them form your connections. There are lots of very very successful firms using them. Some have had zero losing days in years.
no, i not heard of successes.
mostly only who got burned.
Those who advertise success.
advertising?
In trading things that working well, is normally very closely guarded secrets.
If not because i want leave some stuff behind, won't even tell anyone about what i already told.
Was that way.

regards
  • #38,067
  • Edited 10:11am Jan 20, 2013 9:08am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting fti
no, i not heard of successes.
mostly only who got burned.
Those who advertise success, normally they not.
Is advertising.
Things that working well, is normally very closely guarded secrets.

regards
I agree with you, only ones that I know of are very secretive.
  • #38,068
  • Edited 10:37am Jan 20, 2013 10:17am | Edited 10:37am
What i can say is about what i do.
What & how others do, is basically they own turf, and privilages.
I cannot comment much.
regards
  • #38,069
  • Jan 20, 2013 7:22pm Jan 20, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting fti
correction. was 1st on the radio shack commodores. cannot remember the name now, something professor then apple 2s, then osbornes.
spent millions of banks moneys on coders developing modules. Have tried incorporating everything i showed here into flow chart machine codes. NO GO.
Commodore (CBM) had the PET at that time and Radio Shack had the TRS-80. Two different machines.
  • #38,070
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:46pm Jan 20, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting Jairo
I was burned by trying to play with volatility, a seemingly "constant" in the market.
This just shows that when you start with a false premise (see quote above) you end up building a house of cards. Where did you get the idea that market volatility is a constant?
  • #38,071
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:47am Jan 21, 2013 1:47am
Quoting Zoran
Commodore (CBM) had the PET at that time and Radio Shack had the TRS-80. Two different machines.
zoran.
Was earlier days, was named ????????professor.
had to hook it up to a sony trinitron TVmonitor.
The TV flickers was killer for the eyes.
changed to Apple when they launched it
because of the green phophorous screen similar to those of reuters screens.

regards
  • #38,072
  • Edited 3:17am Jan 21, 2013 1:55am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting FXEZ
This just shows that when you start with a false premise (see quote above) you end up building a house of cards. Where did you get the idea that market volatility is a constant?
yes, correct.
I had been trying tell all along.
Get the assumations wrong , and will be monsters.
I try never ass u me anything.
I believe KC liu was very correct.
I only believe things that i personally experienced. And even that with some benefit of the doubt,
that it may only be part, and part may not be the whole.

but sometimes i do become gullable to good arguments,
but i quickly wise up.
anything too good to be true , normally is only just that.
and anything that gets mind boggling messy, entangles thoughts, normally deceptions.

I guess this the reasons why i can never understand politics.

regards

am still trying to understand the J FK mess.
much lessons there.

here's some new investigations about it.
sounds logical, but lots things is things pieced together from analysis?
need sieve thru , whats facts and whats assumptions. Maybe even agendas. some hidden some obvious.
Mind may be chasing own tail.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSakrYOpJ5s

www.youtube.com/watch?v=96FDflK_Iug

what was the key?
Executive Order 11110?

This interesting for traders?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZOB8NVZY6I
  • #38,073
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:58am Jan 21, 2013 4:58am
Quoting FXEZ
This just shows that when you start with a false premise (see quote above) you end up building a house of cards. Where did you get the idea that market volatility is a constant?
By "constant" I mean "present all the time", not constant figures. Then I tried to play with it. Very dangerous. I failed with a simplistic approach. Maybe it is possible - digging more deeply into the complexities - but I am not sure it is worth the effort.
  • #38,074
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:00am Jan 21, 2013 5:00am
Hii fti,

i have just started reading your threads. I have started demo trading but my technical analysis is weak so want to improve it. Can yoy help me by suggesting step-by-step approch for being a better trader.

Awaiting your response.

Thanks
  • #38,075
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:52am Jan 21, 2013 5:52am
Quoting nimitnish
Hii fti,

i have just started reading your threads. I have started demo trading but my technical analysis is weak so want to improve it. Can yoy help me by suggesting step-by-step approch for being a better trader.

Awaiting your response.

Thanks
Hi welcome to thread.
generally, is very difficult go step by step.
one would need to know self skills and mindset.
enhance the niche and strengths one has and address the weakness that one may have.

You see, the trading decision process, is a composite of all the components.
is not a step by step porcess.
But one should read the thread if you have time and try use the pieces of stuff you may understand to enhance your decision process, 1 issue at a time.
over time you should learn more from the markets and understand a little more of every tool
and may be use the understanding polished that may enhance ones abilities.

I had tried be on track with my manual for training which i did when doing training during my career.
So in fact i had tried present all in as structured as i can make it.

Sorry for my deficiencies..

regards
  • #38,076
  • Jan 21, 2013 6:24am Jan 21, 2013 6:24am
Hey fti,

I really appreciates your effiorts and time for helping me. I am trying to overcome my weaknesses mainly psychology first. I have started trading on hourly chart and trade mainly EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. I m doing demo trading on MT4 alpari platform.

But i m repeating mistakes like before trend gets clear i open the position or if i m moving with trend than i close my trade quickly before taking huge profit. So i gets frustrate due to this but i want to be better and best trader. "A new day will have a new journey, new finding and new learning" with that attitude i will regain my strenght for trading.

I knew i m responsible for all my trade but i have to overcome from this deficiences. So asking you where to focus first. I m really confuse and trying to find solution from couple of days. I m taking position based on purly price action along with CCI indicator and exponential MA.

I would like to know from you that should i learn market psychology for taking entry, Candlestick patterns or indicators. I hope u guide me somewhat based on your experience.

I would love if other members do comment and help me to move in right direction.

  • #38,077
  • Edited 7:49am Jan 21, 2013 7:19am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting nimitnish
Hey fti,

I really appreciates your effiorts and time for helping me. I am trying to overcome my weaknesses mainly psychology first. I have started trading on hourly chart and trade mainly EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. I m doing demo trading on MT4 alpari platform.

But i m repeating mistakes like before trend gets clear i open the position or if i m moving with trend than i close my trade quickly before taking huge profit. So i gets frustrate due to this but i want to be better and best trader. "A new day will have a new journey, new finding...
ok here my observations about you.
1. you either not read the thread, or you not understand.

I not know your phycological strengths or waeknesses.
Can only tell that by observing you while you operating over soome time.

What i observed from your posting is that you ""style"" , MO if you like is very different from what i do.

I suspect thats because you use indicators for trade decisions,
normally peeps who use indicators have only 1 or 2 triggers , time their movements in markets.
a characteristic of indicators style trading. More like snyping , aka hit and run style.
Thats reasons why you seldom get to ride trends.
After exits would be difficult find re entry points.

I operate in another MO. is very different.
is already on the thread. Maybe best you read thread first before ask me.
because even if i told you you will not understand.
Basically , here's a hint, you have no mm.(money management)


regards
  • #38,078
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:03am Jan 21, 2013 9:03am
Quoting nimitnish
Hey fti,

I really appreciates your effiorts and time for helping me. I am trying to overcome my weaknesses mainly psychology first. I have started trading on hourly chart and trade mainly EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. I m doing demo trading on MT4 alpari platform.

But i m repeating mistakes like before trend gets clear i open the position or if i m moving with trend than i close my trade quickly before taking huge profit. So i gets frustrate due to this but i want to be better and best trader. "A new day will have a new journey, new finding and...
demo trading is like ur a reading a manual on swimming but never enter in water.much easier to learn trading if u use real money account and take position and start managing it.ie first jump in the water and come out start documenting ur experience,no better way to learn this stuff.meanwhile read first 200 pages of this thread for ur mindset.one tip is open small account and take very small positions and try to sit on the table as long as possible .it is a hard game invovle sweat and blood,so be careful,and it will take about 5 to 6 yrs of hard work before u start making money safely and consistently.


If ur a Gambler type then the best tip i give is sell everything u got including ur wife jewellry and bet everything on one move win or lose and then left trading for the best and smell roses.
please dont start asking questions without doing proper homework.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,079
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:53am Jan 21, 2013 10:53am
Thank you so much fti. For your feedback.

@drzakir123 I really appreciate your comment and will surely work on ur feedback. Thank you
  • #38,080
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:17am Jan 21, 2013 11:17am
Quoting nimitnish
Thank you.

@drzakir123 I really appreciate your comment and will surely work on ur feedback. Thank you
ur welcome.where in india from?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
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