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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,041
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:44am Jan 18, 2013 7:44am
Quoting auxesis
I think I'll go get the garden ready for spring, seems i may need extra room for more tomatoes and potatoes.

regards,

This mornings Dollar's strong against everyone except Swiss and Asian/Kiwi, Aud neutral.......... Gold's up..
mostly trying.
but is hard find real usd strength, Nothing to suggest that yet.
even i not dare hold it.
feel heat, quickly drop like hot potato.

Everyone knows currencys are very cautious of the imported inflation.
so only thingy can do is scalping ranges.
Is still better than dead fish range. No one likes play with things that not moves.


regards
  • #38,042
  • Jan 18, 2013 8:50am Jan 18, 2013 8:50am
Quoting auxesis
It's over my head, All major banks were pumped with liquidity during the crisis, told they had to take the money, they on the hook to the Feds? If they fail, who'd think preferred stock holders have stake?

When GM and Chrysler restructured during the crash, stock holders were told take a hike, courts backed them, biggest con job ever.

Who gets their toys if (Citi, WF, BOA, GS) fail?

regards
it is all for greater good. make sure you will not be like one of birds on these islands - your wealth literally food for growth:

http://www.natureseychelles.org/inde...ask=view&id=73


-------------------
The frequency of the fatal encounters raises the possibility that the tree gains some benefit, perhaps by ensuring that its seeds germinate in the presence of a carcass which might provide essential nutrients. So, are the bird deaths ‘deliberate’ and advantageous to the tree in some way, or are they an accident of its seed dispersal method?
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  • #38,043
  • Edited 10:09am Jan 18, 2013 8:58am | Edited 10:09am
;0
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by 吴美芳

seems she's a very rare and conservative talent.
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  • #38,044
  • Edited Jan 19, 2013 6:03am Jan 18, 2013 9:26am | Edited Jan 19, 2013 6:03am
Quoting macroman
it is all for greater good. make sure you will not be like one of birds on these islands - your wealth literally food for growth:

http://www.natureseychelles.org/inde...ask=view&id=73


-------------------
The frequency of the fatal encounters raises the possibility that the tree gains some benefit, perhaps by ensuring that its seeds germinate in the presence of a carcass which might provide essential nutrients. So, are the bird deaths ‘deliberate’ and advantageous to the tree in some way, or are they an accident...
Oh, the Why question again.

sorry those type questions no get answers.
Why oh why, you asking why?
nature has her ways.

regards

WHY?:rofl : yes, WHY?

黃 鶴 樓 Yellow Crane Pagoda,Wuhan, Hubei.

The yellow crane has long since gone away,
All that here remains is yellow crane tower.
The yellow crane once gone does not return,
White clouds drift slowly for a thousand years.

The river is clear in Hanyang by the trees,
And fragrant grass grows thick on parrot isle.
In this dusk, I don't know where my homeland lies,
The river's mist-covered waters bring me sorrow.

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Why Oh Why,
Does the weeds choke frangrance grass to extinction?
Why oh why does barbarics rules the kind?
Is it because is easy be evil and difficult be kind?
Is it from evil one gains, from kindness gains nothing?
Is it because we are tools of evils?
Children who have forgotten their kind loving fathers, knowing only evil?
Tell me why? Oh ego, Tell me why?
Oh learned mind, please tell why?Is it the education?

Try understand this poem.

Cao Zhi is better recognised today for his struggles with his elder brother Cao Pi for the throne, which has been further popularised in the 14th century epic novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms by Luo Guanzhong. In chapter scene, Cao Pi forced Cao Zhi to produce a spontaneous poem within seven footsteps, otherwise facing significant punishment or even death. Cao Zhi was able to save his life with the following poem:

Cao Zhi曹植(192-232)
"The poem in Seven steps." aka Beans and stalk.

This is a metaphor in which Cao Zhi (represented by the beans) crtiticises why Cao Pi (the stalks) hurried to torture him despite both brothers being from the same parents.

Why oh why? Why indeed.
Dare to hate? Dare to love?

I cannoyt remember who said.
"Ïs better have educated heart than an educated mind"
In chinese the heart is meant as conscience.
possibily because not know about the bicameral mind, which regulates the heart.: )
Always needs something that can be seen represent that they not able see?

For me Dad exists. But of course for those not seen him before, they wonders.
I no need a stone tell me he exists.
No need hug a stone. He's gone home.

KC liu, when i visited him for the last time,
He told me ,
after i go off, you no need come pay respects.
They will want jostle for positioning. You no need that.
Just go do your own stuff , leave they club each other.
No need watch me sleeping. remember me active and having good times.
you see me sleeping all the time in the tents. So nothing to watch there. :rofl :
He was right. I just heard. The new "management" of the old boys building.
They sold it for millions, wonder who's keeping the $$$. Just love the brains that loves $$$ so much , instead of a home.

i wonder about those waiting in the wings, here, also
just waiting for me kick the bucket, then comes pay their "RESPECTS"?


Blessed are the ..................................


Ode to the Corals.
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  • #38,045
  • Edited 10:46am Jan 18, 2013 10:32am | Edited 10:46am
Wow, aux very on the ball.
i missed.
took pee too early.
waited retrace that never came.

Too late now.
another day another fight.
must watch the hot potato comment.
mindset bad. need clear bias mind, get unrigid.

Now rest, goodnite my friends.
regards
  • #38,046
  • Jan 19, 2013 8:16am Jan 19, 2013 8:16am
Quoting auxesis
It's over my head, All major banks were pumped with liquidity during the crisis, told they had to take the money, they on the hook to the Feds? If they fail, who'd think preferred stock holders have stake?

When GM and Chrysler restructured during the crash, stock holders were told take a hike, courts backed them, biggest con job ever.

Who gets their toys if (Citi, WF, BOA, GS) fail?

regards
the way i look at it is,fed is all fraud.money is debt and when fed provide liquidity that is give money then what they are doing is giving loan on interest to everyone.these people dont collect their interest in normal way but in round about way by devaluing the currency or commodities.when crises happen it is just an outside symptom or manipulating the conditions so that they can provide the fresh cycle of new money[pls do keep in mind the defination money as is written on every dollar bill ie it is debt taken by people] in the system or have an excuse to give more debt.
considering this way basically fed collect thier interest on debt when market is in bullish phase[when bullish commodities and stocks means currecny value going down ie bullish against thier own currency] and principle when in crisis. so the question is how to mimic fed?
once fed stop providing liquidity and after 4 to 6 months following the first interest rate increase.at these time if one is position like buffet for long term and buy all the cheap stock and commodities one will make money.ie one can collect once interest as stock goes up and take ur principle when crises on the horizon.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,047
  • Edited 10:58am Jan 19, 2013 9:42am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting drzakir123
the way i look at it is,fed is all fraud.money is debt and when fed provide liquidity that is give money then what they are doing is giving loan on interest to everyone.these people dont collect their interest in normal way but in round about way by devaluing the currency or commodities.when crises happen it is just an outside symptom or manipulating the conditions so that they can provide the fresh cycle of new money[pls do keep in mind the defination money as is written on every dollar bill ie it is debt taken by people] in the system or have...
Dr, why suddenly so negative?

yes, money is only an iou note.
but if you issued a personal iou when you buy things. the peeps wil not accept it.
so instead a public iou is issued for you use buy stuff, be it goods or services. its called legal tender,
because is directed by law that seller accepts it for payment.
during the days of the gold standard, it was backed by a store of value metal, called gold.
Since nixon, that system had changed and is now back fully by goodwill and trust.
any defaults and you may see the ripple effects. The peeps in specific countries where is issued may still use it.
But that not mean the peeps doing international trading is forced accept it.

What the feds doing is just managing it , the ious.
of course anyone managing anything will do it in their favour.
Thats what we do , when we managing our trades.
when is unfavorable we dump the baby to someones elses laps.
is just normal managing, thats all.
Is not they want fraud you.
Is just that they will manage it to their interest.
You pray that you are in the circle of their interest.

long time ago , before i was born, i heard they even used food to transact, namely rice.
but not everyone wants eat rice.
I mean how would your patients pay for your medical services, if they came and tried pay by giving tapioca or bananas from their orchards.
so we have this mechanism call money. The iou notes.

This mechanism need be constantly managed and kept stable so that you not need re calculate what the billings.
1 day is $200 per consultation another day is 2000?
so to stabalise the value they used gold as benchmark to keep things from rocking crazy.

now that gold is no longer used as benchmark, then all need use wit manage it.

Why do you want mimic the fed?
Just manage the value of what you have by placing it in stable mechanism.
thats what we do when trading.
when one loses value we quickly park our funds where is appreciating.
thats what we doing when we trading.
only that technology has shrunked the tenure scaling.
so now we do it on a daily basis.

What really scary to me, is thatsome smart kids thought of ways for peeps keep stored logs for use in old age.(or rainy days)
called retirement. When you retired, you no get more logs, so you burn whatever you saved try to sustain until you go home.
Now some smart kids have learned shrink that.
How would you like to save logs away all your life only to find that for every 10 logs you saved there's only 1 in the store.
You see, the smart kids created interest rates so thatyour 10 logs will stay stable around the amount for your retirement.
and they created somethingcalled inflation, to keep stuff growing.
Only now you have infaltion but no interest to defray that.
So in fact your pile of logs saved is shrinking and shrinking as time progresses.
This because they need your resources , for others to spend.
By compounded calculation it would have shunked 100% in about 7 years give and take a couple, if this economic climate continues.
and now because every one exchange the debt papers , is spreading over to every one on the planet.
You see, they not trying fraud, is the system is failing, and managing it becoming difficult.
Worst is some smart kid learn use law and make not legal manage it personally. Now hedging for gold is gone from the table, hedging by govt guaranteed papers is defaulted.
Only way i can think off is hedging with bicycles. because there no more real assets. Land & properties is devaluating, so is most things. Most class of stuff we believe was assets are all turning to be liabilities. The computer is not an asset, your car is not an asset, your nearly everything you own is not an asset. They all become consumables due to technological commercials and pricing maNIPULATING. Just think is it cost you more buy the phone or use it?
There too many smart kids manipulating the system. Thats whats worrying me. Not that if money is a fraud.

Of course we no want discuss the filthy subject of taxation. That one seems the smartest of the smart kids.

Planning use sea shells? Dr?

regards

Oh by the way, in some countires everything is pegged. The price of all essentials are pegged, there's not much in terms of interest and not much in forms of inflation. But smart kids are getting there too. slowly. they educating them now.
  • #38,048
  • Edited 10:48am Jan 19, 2013 10:32am | Edited 10:48am
where i come from, schools were built.
so that peeps could learn reading and comprehension skills , so that the missionaries not have such a difficult time explaining the bible and what jesus taught.

but seems its branched to way way beyond now.
Peeps are so educated to twist things round and round the tree so much that no one can even get a handle of things anymore.
Maybe is more deception than education.
Every generation get big bunch of smart kids.
Now adays i need even watch out that man may even try mate me. Oh by the way , i am male. and if i may say so very alpha.

regards

yaya, fti, just you watch out. Your shadowless knifes here will get you. Just you wait.
  • #38,049
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:07am Jan 19, 2013 11:07am
Hi fti,

The last words I heard from you were: "With humility in the heart the recovery has just begun". It was a long time ago. Maybe you have forgotten. I didn't, though I didn't believe at that time. I was too upset by the huge loss I had run into then.

Now I keep just silently trading my own account.

Don't want to clutter your thread with any off topic talk. Just want to say thanks again. If you don't mind, I still enjoy reading your thread. Probably you are the one from whom I learned most about the market in my nearly 16 years struggle.

Best regards,

Jairo.
  • #38,050
  • Edited 11:45am Jan 19, 2013 11:17am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting Jairo
Hi fti,

The last words I heard from you were: "With humility in the heart the recovery has just begun". It was a long time ago. Maybe you have forgotten. I didn't, though I didn't believe at that time. I was too upset by the huge loss I had run into then.

Now I keep just silently trading my own account.

Don't want to clutter your thread with any off topic talk. Just want to say thanks again. If you don't mind, I still enjoy reading your thread. Probably you are the one from whom I learned most about the market in my nearly 16 years struggle.

Best...
Jairo
i am glad to be helpful to you.
I hope you could understand well, as was my intention leave this behind for peeps develop on.
esp the small ants. I not worried for the big guns, they have every edge already.

I pray for you feel the way forward and make trading a pleasurable quest.

Really not be worried about cluttering the thread.
I cluttered it lots already with all sorts.
Though not intentionally, but went lots OT trying explain things.

I am glad have you around , my friend.

Good Fortune, God Bless.

regards

By the way , i only have liberty have a thread, due to the generousity of ff providing a trading forum.
Ans yes, waiting to expire is a very painful process. Maybe i just trying speed it up.
But if God says is not time yet , then i just have to have patience.
Just been hearing, lots peeps go , on their 1st attack.
I had 2, plus mild stroke on my right, plus the LV thrombus.
If God says no, who am i to complain.
I hate thinking of the years i had done sitting on my ass waiting to expire.
Could had done heaps, possibily even started second family.
never in my whole life have i been so complacent.

Just to add, 2 weekends back, or was it 3.
I plucked up my feets went shopping with my brother when he visited.
ended up got carried by security guards to the car.
Every one thought , this got to be it.
Nope, after some hours rest , i opened eyes again. not even i understands.
  • #38,051
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:43am Jan 19, 2013 11:43am
fti,

Thank you for your kind words. I feel very sorry for not being able to give anything back after all I acknowledge to have received from you and many others in this thread. I am just a poor, mediocre, snow learning, struggling wannabe trader.

Hey, don't hurry, my friend. The road is very long... maybe endless .. (?!!?) "Live long and prosper" - Know this?
  • #38,052
  • Edited 1:20pm Jan 19, 2013 11:52am | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting Jairo
fti,

Thank you for your kind words. I feel very sorry for not being able to give anything back after all I acknowledge to have received from you and many others in this thread. I am just a poor, mediocre, snow learning, struggling wannabe trader.

Hey, don't hurry, my friend. The road is very long... maybe endless .. (?!!?) "Live long and prosper" - Know this?
yes, i'll try, maybe i will outlive my financials planning.
anyway if markets still around i still have means.

slow is ok, is nothing wrong being slow.
important thing is must arrive.

slow and steady can still win the race.
anyway you only need racing against yourself. so no push it unbalanced.

Oh i asked nothing, so no go on guilt trip either.
I happy just have friends.

regards

PS:computerised trading is not way to go.
I had tried , it goes against the grains.
develope the mind.
computerising for fast market access , orders routing is ok.
accounting and stuff is ok, for trading nothing beats the God created computer, the brain.
I like think i pioneered computerised analysis and trade models. First to had started on apple 2s. First to trolley my apple 2s working between home and bank.
Now on i3s, i5s,i7s running at the same time.
Have concluded, not in my lifetime.
correction. was 1st on the radio shack commodores. cannot remember the name now, something professor then apple 2s, then osbornes.
spent millions of banks moneys on coders developing modules. Have tried incorporating everything i showed here into flow chart machine codes. NO GO.

Had tried triangulating market equilibrium pivots using all methodology from gann sqs, supports resistance pivots, all sorts speed bands. All loses out to a simple eyeballing of market form and flow. There is no optimum parameter that can adjust to markets flow and changing fundemantals fast enough than the brain. But of course some brains are so clogged rigid that its non functional.
Even now i am still beating the market makers with 1 bad eye.
They lucky i not dealing in tier 1 tickets.
  • #38,053
  • Edited 2:14pm Jan 19, 2013 1:30pm | Edited 2:14pm
oh have 1 old momento share with my friends.
Dugged it up from the boxes they boxing my stuff in.
just a glass block. didn't noticed, even glass turned brown.

is so romantic feelings still here on sunday, looking at my old momentos and listening to this.
Feels like have lived too long.

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  • #38,054
  • Edited 1:58pm Jan 19, 2013 1:31pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting fti
Jairo
i am glad to be helpful to you.
I hope you could understand well, as was my intention leave this behind for peeps develop on.
esp the small ants. I not worried for the big guns, they have every edge already.

I pray for you feel the way forward and make trading a pleasurable quest.

Really not be worried about cluttering the thread.
I cluttered it lots already with all sorts.
Though not intentionally, but went lots OT trying explain things.

I am glad have you around , my friend.

Good Fortune, God Bless.

regards

By the way ,...
life is such,even if u give ur heart out ppl still going to question.i dont know why i am feeling so cynical today.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,055
  • Edited 1:52pm Jan 19, 2013 1:37pm | Edited 1:52pm
Hi fti


yes, analyses is only good when it works, from you so far I found observe, feel, test then manage. Thank you.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #38,056
  • Jan 19, 2013 4:29pm Jan 19, 2013 4:29pm
Saw this on another thread. thought all of you might enjoy it. Hope everyone is having a great weekend.


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  • #38,057
  • Edited Jan 20, 2013 5:57am Jan 19, 2013 5:06pm | Edited Jan 20, 2013 5:57am
Fti, thanks for taking your time speaking again about your past experience with programming. I was burned by trying to play with volatility, a seemingly "constant" in the market. The idea: "to shift 1 the market goes 1000 up and down. So let's play with it. Both ways, since I cannot predict direction." Big mistake. Volatiliy is market maker's play. They are in control. They have the capital. When the up/down is finished, the automated kids playing with fire will always get burned. I learned the hard way. With this experience and knowing that the market may do anything it wants - any time, any direction, any strength, I don't believe anymore in simplistic programming solutions. Your warnings probably worked like seeds planted in my mind. I was very blind not seeing this until . . disaster!

Best regards.
  • #38,058
  • Jan 19, 2013 6:27pm Jan 19, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting fti
computerised trading is not way to go.
I had tried , it goes against the grains.
develope the mind.
computerising for fast market access , orders routing is ok.
accounting and stuff is ok, for trading nothing beats the God created computer, the brain.
I like think i pioneered computerised analysis and trade models. First to had started on apple 2s. First to trolley my apple 2s working between home and bank.
Now on i3s, i5s,i7s running at the same time.
Have concluded, not in my lifetime.
correction. was 1st on the radio shack commodores. cannot...
Automated trading is the business now. All banks and hedge funds are looking for now is programers physicists, and mathematicians to build models. Algorithmic trading completely dominates stock market and is taking over Forex as well.
  • #38,059
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:40am Jan 20, 2013 4:40am
Quoting M-H Trader
Automated trading is the business now. All banks and hedge funds are looking for now is programers physicists, and mathematicians to build models. Algorithmic trading completely dominates stock market and is taking over Forex as well.
I see now EAs as tools. You may have an arsenal of them but you must know how they work and you decide when to turn them on and off according to your market view. I seriuosly doubt there will ever be a reliable and completely automated program that could make human supervision unnecessary.
  • #38,060
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:16am Jan 20, 2013 6:16am
Quoting tubguy
Saw this on another thread. thought all of you might enjoy it. Hope everyone is having a great weekend.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf8KFdnwBGY
interesting summaries.

regards
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