Attachments: B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

#4,941
Jan 14, 2013 6:46am Jan 14, 2013 6:46am

Coolleen
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: almost there.. | 88 Posts

Quoting hiteshjethra

Disliked

Hi Everyone,

I have drawn S/D levels on EURGBP H4 chart. Price just went through my levels completely ignoring them. Request members to have a look and share their opinions. Would love to know what I am missing here.

Thanks

Ignored

1-the daily trend is up since 7 july 2012 ...wait for pullback into a demand zone for a buy entry.No selling in an uptrend.
2-this isn't the holigrail of trading.you will have 30-40 % losing trades.

#4,942
Jan 14, 2013 10:40am Jan 14, 2013 10:40am

Oshawa
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trader | 454 Posts

Quoting hiteshjethra

Disliked

Hi Everyone,

I have drawn S/D levels on EURGBP H4 chart. Price just went through my levels completely ignoring them. Request members to have a look and share their opinions. Would love to know what I am missing here.

Thanks

Ignored

If looked more closely, there was a tiny bit of reaction at that level. But the reaction is small, and that sort of PA is quite typical consolidation before continuation. So, if one is in a trade, should try to get out of the way as soon as possible.

http://i48.tinypic.com/33jqwk2.jpg

#4,943
Jan 14, 2013 12:44pm Jan 14, 2013 12:44pm

TraderinSD
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts

Quoting hiteshjethra

Disliked

Hi Everyone,

I have drawn S/D levels on EURGBP H4 chart. Price just went through my levels completely ignoring them. Request members to have a look and share their opinions. Would love to know what I am missing here.

Thanks

Ignored

Two things here ...

1) Odds Enhancer.. How price enters level?.. Was it aggressive.. In this case it stalled as Oshawa had stated. You want price to stall inside the level.. not just before.

2) Odds Enhancer .. Are we trading with the trend? In this case our trend Daily and Weekly are both up, so this trade would be considered a counter trend trade. So the question is where is price in the "pattern" Drop-Base-Rise or Rise-Base-Drop? Well if we look at the weekly we see a price level @ 8334 .. up a little farther at 8566.. So price is coming out of the base heading into the rise on the weekly...If you going to trade the 4HR.. You will need to look at the Daily and Weeklys.

Hope this helps

Good trading to all

TSD

#4,944
Jan 14, 2013 11:33pm Jan 14, 2013 11:33pm

hiteshjethra
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 26 Posts

Quoting Coolleen

Disliked

1-the daily trend is up since 7 july 2012 ...wait for pullback into a demand zone for a buy entry.No selling in an uptrend.
2-this isn't the holigrail of trading.you will have 30-40 % losing trades.

Ignored

Coolleen,

Thank you for your response. I now see the uptrend in daily chart. Should have seen that earlier. Also I do understand that there is no holy grail, I just wanted to be clear as to whether my approach was lacking or was this one of the times when this method gave losses.

Once again I appreciate your taking out time to respond to my query and looking fwd to more of them.

#4,945
Jan 14, 2013 11:47pm Jan 14, 2013 11:47pm

hiteshjethra
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 26 Posts

Quoting Oshawa

Disliked

If looked more closely, there was a tiny bit of reaction at that level. But the reaction is small, and that sort of PA is quite typical consolidation before continuation. So, if one is in a trade, should try to get out of the way as soon as possible.

Ignored

Thanks Oshawa ,

Will keep that in mind. Appreciate your response.

#4,946
Jan 15, 2013 2:05am Jan 15, 2013 2:05am

hiteshjethra
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 26 Posts

Quoting TraderinSD

Disliked

Two things here ...

1) Odds Enhancer.. How price enters level?.. Was it aggressive.. In this case it stalled as Oshawa had stated. You want price to stall inside the level.. not just before.

2) Odds Enhancer .. Are we trading with the trend? In this case our trend Daily and Weekly are both up, so this trade would be considered a counter trend trade. So the question is where is price in the "pattern" Drop-Base-Rise or Rise-Base-Drop? Well if we look at the weekly we see a price level @ 8334 .. up a little farther at 8566.. So price is coming...

Ignored

TSD,

Thank you for your response. I am not sure I understood the D-B-R or R-B-D thing, so I will re-read that topic in Ken's pdf first. Yes I had marked the level on my weekly chart too. But thats much higher than 0.82xx where price was at the time of the snapshot, so I thought it wasnt relevant at that moment.

So if I understand this correctly, the trend on my time frame and the ones on the above two tf's should all be consistent (all are long or all are short ) to be able to make an entry? Ofcourse Ken has mentioned trades against the trend, but since they are riskier, I am not keen on those ones at the moment.

#4,947
Jan 15, 2013 10:34am Jan 15, 2013 10:34am

TraderinSD
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts

Quoting hiteshjethra

Disliked

TSD,

Thank you for your response. I am not sure I understood the D-B-R or R-B-D thing, so I will re-read that topic in Ken's pdf first. Yes I had marked the level on my weekly chart too. But thats much higher than 0.82xx where price was at the time of the snapshot, so I thought it wasnt relevant at that moment.

So if I understand this correctly, the trend on my time frame and the ones on the above two tf's should all be consistent (all are long or all are short ) to be able to make an entry? Ofcourse Ken has mentioned trades against the trend,...

Ignored

Hi Hiteshjethra

The D-B-R or R-B-D thing is the pattern that plays out from start to finish.For example: When looking for a short we would have seen an aggressive dropfrom a level that would define or S/D level and "if" price returns to thislevel ( in a manner consistent with our odds enhancers ) that there may be anopportunity to go short.. Preceding this possible entry is the pattern... Pricedrops... Then forms a base...Then returns back up the level (Supply in this case) it started from for ourpossible entry ? Look at the preceding price action when you set up for yourshort that did not work... See the pattern... This is what we look for in the beginning...

If you have not watched “ALL ' of Sam's vid's I would strongly suggest you doso...Once complete... Re watch them again a second time, they can be long to say the least but, you will be amazedat what you missed. Once completed re read KL's thread... In both cases “TAKE NOTES” “TAKE NOTES” “TAKE NOTES” “TAKE NOTES”....oh

did I mention “TAKE NOTES” !

Lastly... Trade only with the trend until you have a good handle on whatthis method is all about and, you become 'profitable “... Resist the edge to takeevery trade.. Take only the best set ups with the highest amount of OddsEnhancers.

Start a trade log... Write down "EVERYTHING", did I say "EVERYTHING" not sure ?? Just remember "EVERYTHING", you think, see, and feel whenyou trade. Take multiple snap shots of each trade... The larger picture, your entry,your trade progression/trade management, your exit...Then summarize. Now herethe best part... Put that trade away for a few days... Then come back to it andreview it... You now have a set of fresh eyes....Many times you will see things you did notsee...When we trade we are in a state of Creeping Normalcy..( look it up ) . Once we are ableto leave that state of mind you will see things you would have otherwisemissed. Go back and look at some of the trades I have posted. You will notice Iput up more than on chart. This is only a portion of what I do on each andevery trade.

I know this seems like a lot but, this is what it will take to getreasonably proficient with this method. All that will be left is time if frontof the screen... Never, ever... stop your trade log ' NEVER '... This log willteach you more about yourself and the method (a method) than any forum andmentor could possibly do... Why?? Because in the end you are the one making thedecisions.

It has cost me literally 10's of 1000's dollars to learn this one thing...Trading is 90% mental 10% method.

PSS: CreepingNormalcy: Refers to the way a major change can be accepted as the normalsituation if it happens slowly, in unnoticed increments, when it would beregarded as objectionable if it took place in a single step or short period. Weare not wired to trade... We are adverse to risk... This is the norm that hashappen over time = Creeping Normalcy... When we try and tradewe unconsciouslydo things that we regarded as objectionable and we don't even know weare doing it. The log will help you see this and move you in the direction ofthe change that needs to take place. What most traders try and do is changethis by a single step or short period, it can’t be done. It takestime to see, change your fears, your habits... You are Re Wiring yourbrain to trade.
How longyou ask? Everyone has a different time frame of how these changes will happen.Start today and you will be done sooner than if you started tomorrow.
Good Trading to All
Just my 2 pips

TSD

#4,948
Jan 15, 2013 10:46am Jan 15, 2013 10:46am

isharasjc
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 33 Posts

Hi TraderinSD,

Thanx alot for your advice... Can you pls tell me where I can find Sam Seiden's videos to watch.. If you can pls publish the links here, so I can watch it too.

Thanx in Advance,
Ishara

#4,949
Jan 15, 2013 11:02am Jan 15, 2013 11:02am

TraderinSD
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts

Quoting isharasjc

Disliked

Hi TraderinSD,

Thanx alot for your advice... Can you pls tell me where I can find Sam Seiden's videos to watch.. If you can pls publish the links here, so I can watch it too.

Thanx in Advance,
Ishara

Ignored

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...&contenttype=w

#4,950
Jan 15, 2013 11:05am Jan 15, 2013 11:05am

isharasjc
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 33 Posts

Hi TraderinSD,

Thanx alot.. I will follow these videos and see..

Thanx,
Ishara

#4,951
Edited 11:40pm Jan 15, 2013 11:39pm | Edited 11:40pm

hiteshjethra
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 26 Posts

Quoting TraderinSD

Disliked

Hi Hiteshjethra

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]The D-B-R or R-B-D thing is the pattern that plays out from start to finish.For example: When looking for a short we would have seen an aggressive dropfrom a level that would define or S/D level and "if" price returns to thislevel ( in a manner consistent with our odds enhancers ) that there may be anopportunity to go short.. Preceding this possible entry is the pattern... Pricedrops... Then forms a base...Then returns back up the level (Supply in this case) it started from for ourpossible entry...

Ignored

TSD,

Thanx a TON !! for your detailed response. Seriously , I cant thank you enough for it and i do appreciate your response.

I think I am beginning to understand what you mean by D-B-R / R-B-D. If price is moving in R-B-D then we can look for potential shorts the next time price rises to a level. Hopefully i will have a clearer idea once I am done with the vids and pdf but feel free to correct me if i am way off.

Yes, I have not watched all of Sam's videos yet but I will be doing that now, followed by re-reading KL's pdf. One thing i didnt like when i watched one of his vids was that he had already drawn the zones and didnt discuss why he drew the levels the way he did. Maybe thats discussed elsewhere so will check them all out.

Also thank you for explaining Creeping Normalcy to me. I do get what you are trying to say. And you're not gonna blv it but with CN you just gave me the solution to another problem (completely unrelated to trading) I was facing in my life.

THANKS !!

PS: You must be trading huuuuge lots since your '2 pips' seems like a lot of money to me

#4,952
Jan 16, 2013 12:16am Jan 16, 2013 12:16am

negi_29
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: piphunter | 20 Posts

Quoting hiteshjethra

Disliked

TSD,

Thanx a TON !! for your detailed response. Seriously , I cant thank you enough for it and i do appreciate your response.

I think I am beginning to understand what you mean by D-B-R / R-B-D. If price is moving in R-B-D then we can look for potential shorts the next time price rises to a level. Hopefully i will have a clearer idea once I am done with the vids and pdf but feel free to correct me if i am way off.

THANKS !!

PS: You must be trading huuuuge lots since your '2 pips' seems like a lot of money to me

Ignored

Hi Hiteshjethra,
Important points about SD trading (Sam Seidan)attached.After reading this may be u will get a good idea about SD trading.Gd Luck...

Attached File(s)

supply and demand steps for trade.pdf 375 KB | 5,827 downloads

#4,953
Jan 16, 2013 3:23am Jan 16, 2013 3:23am

hiteshjethra
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 26 Posts

Quoting negi_29

Disliked

Hi Hiteshjethra,
Important points about SD trading (Sam Seidan)attached.After reading this may be u will get a good idea about SD trading.Gd Luck...

Ignored

Thank you, reading it right now.

#4,954
Jan 16, 2013 12:06pm Jan 16, 2013 12:06pm

TraderinSD
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts

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Here we have a 30 min chart. Something that KL speaks about is multiple moves into the same level. First notice how each time the next move went a little deeper. The 1st and 3'd move had the obvious aggressive moves into the level. SM’s buying into Demand. The 2'd move did not. It just meanders into this level. YET, there was a clear rejection and a trade worth taking... Many would ask the question why take a second or third? Demand should be drying up, right? Risk is higher, etc, etc...

Notice I marked an S/R line. I believe that we cannot ignore these lines when they are in the same area as our level is. Let me show you what I mean and why these 3 trades are worth taking.

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1)The red arrows show where price came into this area...If you go back farther you will see how price has revolved both in support and resistance around this 3266 area.... Notice I said AREA...This “area” falls in our Demand level. It comes from a much higher TF compared to our 30M. To me this adds a lot of strength to our Demand level. We are also in a Daily and 4 HR up trend. So we trade with the trend (Odds Enhancer).

2)Also, look at the 3334 supply level just above 1HR. Now look left and you will see S/R's in the same area on the 1HR/30M within the Rise-Base-Drop pattern. Now look at the 3367 level 1HR ... Notice how this level is not as well defined as 3334 for S/R looking left. For my money this is my personal (Odds Enhancer). This is NOT the classic definition. I just like to see a confluence of S/R and S/D.. i believe it help me define areas and stacks the odds in my favor.

3)Now look at the 4HR chart... Looks like a swap level (ala KL) at the 3258 area. Once again this adds to the reasons why we are taking these trades long. The point is: Remember to look at the larger TF's, the patterns within the pattern, the trend.

4) We are looking at all this to get a better perspective.. Patterns within patterns...Its not just looking at the 4HR for trend and trade the 30M... I wish it were that easy.

Let’s look at the pattern itself. We are always looking for the Drop-Base-Rise or Rise-Base-Drop pattern. The S/D levels that form these patterns act like magnets for price to move back towards them most of the time. Why is this so important? This is where the SM's will either sell into supply or buy into demand... Where they will make their big money. So if we are looking at a pattern within a pattern... Larger TF vs. smaller TF, the larger pattern will be where the pressure is... (The magnet) will be. Remember the SM's are trading in ALL TF's...Their bigger positions will most likely be in their larger TF trades. So this is where price will tend to be pulled, toward these levels. Like a magnet… If you are trying to go “short” when the larger TF pattern is “long” you may have a difficult time...????

All this really does is hopefully help you look at another way to define the best direction for your trade. Are these hard and fast rules.. Nope…but they are good guidelines to follow if you wish. I thought I would share these observations as this particular pair had a lot happening. There are a lot more patterns within this chart that could play out.. the 3110 Demand ?? The 3434 - 3494 Daily may also play out.. For my money I like the 3434-3494 Daily Supply. The larger pattern. We are in a trading range tilted downward on the Daily. There are other things I look at but this is not my thread so I will refrain as to not take away from the central teachings of what KL is trying to convey.

Good trading to all

TSD

#4,955
Jan 17, 2013 1:48am Jan 17, 2013 1:48am

TraderinSD
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts

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Got long w/3 lots .. Overview of PA pattern - Entries, Stops and Target

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Clear rejection inside Demand level..All stops are 10 pips. All targets are 20 pips or 2:1 R/R

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Just a another perspective in a different TF. Clearly shows strong move into our Demand Level

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Target #1 ..TP for 20 pips

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Price climbed to #2 target but due to spread did not take me out. I waited to see if there might be some push through to take me out of #2.. but.. PA reversed back down. Drew my line in the sand on the inside S/R line in white. Price broke this line. Exited #2 w/ 12 pips

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Stepped down in TF to the 5M to look inside PA..Price still showing signs of weakness. Drew another inside S/R line. PA crossed that line so we exited w/ 4 pips

Total pipage 36

Yes, we could wait it out? Yes, price may turn back up in our favor? But we traded based on what price is doing now.. Not what I think may or may not happen.. What I hope may happen , etc , etc .. Blah Blah Blah...Trade what you see..Not what you think.. Have some patience...Protect your profits as best you can. Remember we are trading late in the Asian session. Price can stall, go flat and turn against you rather quickly...

Trade what you see...Not what you think.. Look at different TF's..Patterns within patterns..D-B-R / R-B-D

Good trading to all

TSD

#4,956
Jan 17, 2013 1:51am Jan 17, 2013 1:51am

C-12
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Signed In | 5,309 Posts

I got the short last night, always worth checking to see if there's any news before leaving an overnight trade.

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#4,957
Edited Jan 18, 2013 12:08am Jan 17, 2013 10:41pm | Edited Jan 18, 2013 12:08am

Kimmey
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 12 Posts

Hi All -

First time posting on this thread. Have been trading demand supply for a while now and find this to be one of the most effective trading methods around. Will be posting some of my pending trades as I see them...hope to get some feedback on entry levels.

Cheers!

Pending Sell Euro/ Aud trade: Sell 2778, SL 2828. 1st lot TP 2758, 2nd lot TP 2570

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