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Attachments: SAR system based on QQE Adv and MACD Platinum
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SAR system based on QQE Adv and MACD Platinum

  • #21
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:27am Jan 10, 2013 10:27am
buff,

seemingly you have a system with a 'positive edge' already?

anyway, from your raw idea in the post 1, i highly recommend two things:

1. remove the martingale, as Hanover pointed out, you need more "raw" pips; martingale only kills the account as well as cover the true statistics

2. when the indicator says the opposite, you DO NOT cut the current position, but still add the opposite position. After 4hours, keep adding as the indicator says. you can still SL all the positions later, if the indicator switched up & down for tens of times(rare badluck). but if the market picks up any (just a little) momentum, you will be in profit easily.

the 2nd recommendation is made from my observations of the overall market. The market is "winding" its way forward. the "winding" means your SLed positions will accumulate so quickly that your winning position cannot cover them.
  • #22
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:40am Jan 10, 2013 10:40am
Quoting hanover
Jim,

Making trading decisions (and even worse, sizing your positions) according to your P/L is one of the biggest reasons why the vast majority lose, IMHO.

To be profitable, a system needs to generate more raw pips than it loses. Your position sizes will magnify this result favorably only if you can somehow get the bigger positions to coincide with your winning trades; otherwise you're playing a lucky game of hit or miss, where one win can wipe out many losses, or one loss can wipe out many wins. Hence you need an 'edge' to begin with; MM...
This pretty much sums up everything. If I could give Hanover another vouch I would.
  • #23
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:43am Jan 10, 2013 10:43am
My apologies guys, as I was laying in bed I realised I had made a pretty big mistake with regards to the figures in the 2nd video I posted earlier, which would make quite a large difference to the outcome. I have now removed the link and the video from YouTube and will have another look at it tomorrow, where I will repost it with the correct figures. I knew something wasn't right, and it is pretty obvious now I think of it. Again, my apologies.

Also charvo, I'll reply to you in more detail tomorrow also. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #24
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:44pm Jan 10, 2013 12:44pm
just read thru the thread, buff

if i didn't misunderstand, you said your system only take 2 outcomes:

win or BE.

this is against my belief that NO system in this world can survive without taking losses.

it also should be the basis of all discussion on a system.

however, good luck always, as the finding like above has always have to be a personal experiences, i'm afraid.
  • #25
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:52pm Jan 10, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting charvo
just read thru the thread, buff

if i didn't misunderstand, you said your system only take 2 outcomes:

win or BE.

this is against my belief that NO system in this world can survive without taking losses.

it also should be the basis of all discussion on a system.

however, good luck always, as the finding like above has always have to be a personal experiences, i'm afraid.
This is correct. Loss always comes in one form or another. Even if you martingale or escalate position size to recover previous loss (which if done improperly will lead to a blown account eventually), you still lose the time it took to recover. Time = opportunity. Opportunity wasted costs money. Hence time = money. As hanover said, if you have an edge then simple money management is the best approach.
  • #26
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:06pm Jan 10, 2013 7:06pm
Now I'm awake, time for a trade update. Everything remains as is except the EUR/AUD. It reversed and is now 1x long at 1.2495. There was a loss of -74 on the previous short, so my break even target is now 1.2569.

charvo, the martingale, or in this case the fib sequence, is only used as I am considering building an EA out of this method. The reason for an EA is that I can't always be at the charts at the top of every 4hr period. If I could, I would just trade the method manually and manage my stops that way. Using the martingale is just the best option if I go down the EA track. There is nothing stopping from at anytime overriding the EA if I so desire. I must admit that your 2nd point in your first response has got me thinking and I may have a look at that. Thanks. I guess I should have been clearer on the possible two outcomes of win or break even. These refer to the sequence of trades, not individual trades. There will be many times when the sequence is only one trade, but if the sequence is two trades or more then obviously there was a losing trade prior to the sequence closing out at break even. If there are two trades or more, then the only possible outcomes are break even or bust.

2+2=4ex, and hopefully the above explanation covers your points. In an ideal world it would be nice to be able to manually trade a system to its full potential, but I like doing other stuff, and for me, even though I enjoy trading forex, it is only a means to make money. That's what my wife says anyway...cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #27
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:54pm Jan 10, 2013 9:54pm
Okay, now have the correct 2nd video up on YouTube. This is based on the AUD/USD 4hr chart and was done so as to show you when there is a number of losses in a row and how the system recovers. In this example the position size gets up to 8x, so it can get ugly quickly and that is why money management is an important issue as to don't want to go too big initially. I had to take the other video down as I hadn't calculated the losses correctly which threw the whole chart out of whack, but at the end of the day, there is the exact same result.

Video can be watched at
Inserted Video
and again, my apologies. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #28
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:54pm Jan 10, 2013 10:54pm
do try "NO CUT" option, since I've been working at similar thing as your idea.

i used to think 'cut losers short' will help the sequence. it is until recently that i find out many losers will oscillate up and down (they offset each other), hence no need to cut them. historical tests show great improvement after "no cut" is used. but if your original idea is making money, stick to it. Otherwise, no cut, but keep losers, and keep adding winners if the indicator doesn't oppose......

good luck

Quoting buff
I must admit that your 2nd point in your first response has got me thinking and I may have a look at that. Thanks. I guess I should have been clearer on the possible two outcomes of win or break even.
  • #29
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:29pm Jan 11, 2013 6:29pm
Trade update, now that the markets are closed. I will deduct/add 5 pips to each trade win/loss to cover spread etc.

EUR still 1x long at 1.3180
GBP went short 1x at 1.6119, therefore made a profit of +22 on the previous long.
CHF went long 1x at 0.9164, therefore made a small profit of +6 on the previous short.
AUD went short 1x at 1.0582, therefore made a profit of +29 on he previous long.
EUR/JPY still 1x long at 114.91
EUR/AUD hit the break even target of 1.2569, so that sequence is now closed and now long 1x at 1.2569.

Closed results to date : +57

Remember all of these can be checked on the Oanda MT4 platform. All 4hr charts using the indicators from an earlier post. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #30
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:04pm Jan 13, 2013 8:04pm
Thanks for the update Buff, love the idea and will be testing it myself.

Keep it up!

Thanks,
Kirk
  • #31
  • Jan 14, 2013 4:07am Jan 14, 2013 4:07am
Thanks for the support Kirk. Let me know how you go with it. Remember this is just a rough version and probably could do with some tweaking i.e. different time frames, certain trading times, profit targets etc. Plenty to play with.

Trade update now the markets have been open for about 12hrs.

EUR still long (just) at 1.3180
GBP still short at 1.6119
CHF still long at 0.9164
AUD now long 1x at 1.0568, so there was a loss of -6 on the previous short. In my last post I made a mistake with the AUD entry. It should have read 1.0567 instead of 1.0582. I read the wrong candle. Therefore the profit on the previous long was +14 instead of +29. Doh! Therefore target to break even on this new long is at 1.0574.
EUR/JPY still long (just) at 114.91, and
EUR/AUD now short 1x at 1.2637, therefore there was a profit of +63 on the previous long.

Closed results to date, now that the AUD has the correct figures : +105

Sorry about the stuff up. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #32
  • Jan 14, 2013 4:45pm Jan 14, 2013 4:45pm
Trade update after a big sleep.

EUR now short 1x at 1.3338, so there was a profit of +153 on the previous long.
GBP still short 1x at 1.6119
CHF still long 1x at 0.9164
AUD still long 1x at 1.0568. The break even target is 1.0574, and there has been a high of 1.0577, but I will leave it long for now due to spread etc.
E/JPY now short 1x at 119.11, so there was a profit of +415 on the previous long.
EUR/AUD still short 1x at 1.2637

Closed results to date : +673

Remember this is a demo forward test only using Oanda MT4 4hr charts with the indicators and the system I have described in this thread. Purely mechanical with non repainting indicators. Check out the set up for yourself. I have been lucky so far and got a couple of good runs, but I can assure there will be times when these pairs get bogged down in a sideways trend. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #33
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:43am Jan 15, 2013 6:43am
Trade update 13hrs after the last one.

Nothing has changed. All trades remain as is for now. US market opening soon and some biggish news coming out of the US at 11.30pm local. Other than that, all quiet on the western front..cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #34
  • Jan 15, 2013 10:04am Jan 15, 2013 10:04am
Trade update.

AUD is now short 2x at 1.0530. I should have claimed that break even when it was close! Not to be, so there was a loss of -38 on the previous long, and combined with the loss of -6 before that, now gives me a total loss of -44. As I am short 2x lots on this trade, I only require a target of 1.0508 to hit the break even for this sequence.
All other trades remain as is for now. Cheers. Jim
JAGfx
  • #35
  • Jan 15, 2013 12:01pm Jan 15, 2013 12:01pm
keep going, looks good so far

soon an EA will pop up, be assured.
  • #36
  • Edited 3:27pm Jan 15, 2013 3:10pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting charvo
looks good so far
Indeed, as with all martingales (and pseudo-martingales), the winning trades are of course winners, and the recovery mechanism ensures that all losing trades are immediately compensated for, in such a way that the profits generated by the winning trades are never eroded. Hence, no matter how the market moves, and no matter how effectual (or otherwise) the trader/system is, the account balance will always climb.......

The ultimate questions are:

Is the starting position size of each sequence somehow both (i) large enough to deliver an acceptable rate of income, and also (ii) small enough to allow enough martingale progression steps in the worst possible future case, so that the 'death sequence' never occurs during the account's lifetime?

Or failing that, if the 'death sequence' does occur, how easily can the account loss be shrugged off by the trader?

The biggest problem that I personally have with martingale is that the 'worst possible future case' can never be established from testing, and that it needs to happen only once, to cause ruin. Planning around a critical one-off event requires certainty, but testing can only ever provide rough averages and probabilities, and only within the limits of statistical error.
  • #37
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm
same pain here.

for months, i've been trying deal with death sequence while knowing to some degree there can be no answer...... (no definite answer)

the only way I consider now, is to stretch the sequence over the daily timeframe. there won't be 6 months ranging of the overall currency market, i believe.

therefore, if a sequence can survive for more than 2 or 3 months, it should end-up winning.

then new questions arise......

for one, several sequences in a year should bring sufficient profit as those frequent-trading systems. how should the trader determine the position size and entry timing?

Quoting hanover
The biggest problem that I personally have with martingale is that the 'worst possible future case' can never be established from testing, and that it needs to happen only once, to cause ruin. Planning around a critical one-off event requires certainty, but testing can only ever provide rough averages and probabilities, and only within the limits of statistical error.
  • #38
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:41pm Jan 15, 2013 4:41pm
btw, my ultimate question is:

what if the market goes against me everytime after i place every next position?

it happens many times to me and wipes my accounts off.

Quoting hanover
The ultimate questions are:

Is the starting position size of each sequence somehow both (i) large enough to deliver an acceptable rate of income, and also (ii) small enough to allow enough martingale progression steps in the worst possible future case, so that the 'death sequence' never occurs during the account's lifetime?
  • #39
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:02pm Jan 15, 2013 5:02pm
Hi Mr Buff . thanks for your all posts videos and....
It is good that u are helping us.
Mr Buff id u show us your trades that u gave with picture of chart and explain them it can be more better and useful. again thanks Mr Buff
  • #40
  • Jan 15, 2013 10:42pm Jan 15, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting charvo
same pain here.
Rather than let Jim's thread devolve into a discussion on martingale, I've replied to your recent post(s) here.
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