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  • #16,261
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:23am Jan 11, 2013 7:23am
Quoting infinitus
Good job Mr. T. :-)


Now it gets interesting: will 3108 hold the move down? If yes, chances are high for a late ralley towards the super resistance around 3420-3440
Yes 3108 is VERY imoprtant 3108-05. But according to CLASSIC TREND patterns 3185 should be a big retrace if any before 3385-34xx
  • #16,262
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:41am Jan 11, 2013 7:41am
Quoting T@rantula
Well yesterday I presumed we were gonna have a slow day, and that is happening now. Very slow VERY rangey and there is NO RETRACEMENT. We have a CONSOLIDATION- i have marked it on the chart and the only strategy here is to trade a BREAKOUT. Breakout of DAILY highs or LOWS.

The price is BULLISH but we dont have a trend PATTERN ( Higher Highs Higher Lows) even on m5.

So it is the first breakout of DH or DL or the first retracement of ACTUAL breakout on m1.

Attachment

First target should be 3300 in case of upper breakout then...

Quoting T@rantula
So guys, let me clear it one more time. Dont short it blindly. When there is a TREND ( HH HL or LH LL) we can try to COUNTER THE TREND by placing trades in OPPOSITE DIRECTION. WHEN there is no TREND ( like today and yesterday). Price is BULLISH but we dont have TREND PATTERNS. its excellent to LONG into resistance as BREAKOUT starts to happen. Thats why I posted my trade setup, longing into 3284 breakout.

Breakout trades are optimally done in periods of consolidation and low ATR and on very shallow retracements.

T@rantula, just came across your thread and saw your above posts.

You were spot on with E/U today on your scenario planning.
Very good planning indeed.

Should have come to read your posts a few hours earlier on before I Short-EU during the trading range.
After SL hit, also took Long-EU on breakout a bit further up 1.3305, now price around 1.0340, just waiting to see if there is another up leg 1.038x before exit them for the weekend.
  • #16,263
  • Jan 11, 2013 8:58am Jan 11, 2013 8:58am
Quoting foxybunny
T@rantula, just came across your thread and saw your above posts.

You were spot on with E/U today on your scenario planning.
Very good planning indeed.

Should have come to read your posts a few hours earlier on before I Short-EU during the trading range.
After SL hit, also took Long-EU on breakout a bit further up 1.3305, now price around 1.0340, just waiting to see if there is another up leg 1.038x before exit them for the weekend.
Welcome !

What I usually do is make analysis every morning/day and setups on EURUSD my favourite currency pair. TBH i make living trading EURUSD almost solely so i prefer to do it professionally.

I am patient and I have 4 main strategies that I use. Today, breakout was so obvious and I included it in my trade setup. I also encourage traders to post here so we can discuss. There are also very good analysts and traders who post here ( infinitus, black widow, danc, munal...etc) so feel free to express your views.
  • #16,264
  • Jan 13, 2013 6:17am Jan 13, 2013 6:17am
Quoting T@rantula
Welcome !

What I usually do is make analysis every morning/day and setups on EURUSD my favourite currency pair. TBH i make living trading EURUSD almost solely so i prefer to do it professionally.

I am patient and I have 4 main strategies that I use. Today, breakout was so obvious and I included it in my trade setup. I also encourage traders to post here so we can discuss. There are also very good analysts and traders who post here ( infinitus, black widow, danc, munal...etc) so feel free to express your views.
Thanks T@rantula.

What does "TBH" mean?

I just read the first 50-pages and last 50-pages of your thread here.

Saw you first using RSI, but seem lately you not using that.

Wondering what are your main 4 strategies and how you execute them?

Look to see those strategies in action to understand what you are using, any indicators, etc?
  • #16,265
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:29pm Jan 13, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting foxybunny
Thanks T@rantula.

What does "TBH" mean?

I just read the first 50-pages and last 50-pages of your thread here.

Saw you first using RSI, but seem lately you not using that.

Wondering what are your main 4 strategies and how you execute them?

Look to see those strategies in action to understand what you are using, any indicators, etc?
Yes I stopped using RSI some time ago due to fact that I have focused more on pure price action with 4 main strategies that are the very core of my trading style and are developed by me personally contrary to RSI strategy that I have learned 2y ago.

I dont have the time now to post them as they require advanced level of understanding ( it would take some time to post it) but they are 70-30+ win loss ratio and are based on PA with 1 2 3 patterns and candlesticks. Those are the strategies I have been working on last year mainly, maybe more but the analysis principles are the same I have been using for so long.

Main strategies are: Scalping, Swing Scalping, Intraday positioning and Counter trend trading ( Counter scalps/ retracement trading).
  • #16,266
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:35pm Jan 13, 2013 8:35pm
EURUSD analysis for today gives me something I can post maybe earlier then usual. We are getting close to 3430 daily resistance before 3485 which is a level to watch for on daily tf.

I have marked the levels on the chart and I see them important. My recommendation is to wait for retracement to begin then draw a fib and jump in. ( Retracement trading) -Counter trend strategy. It is crucial to see h4 close and BEARISH candlestick pattern. I would like it to see around 3430 because it is then when we may see it if it proceeds higher. The target will be determined with fib marking. It is high to go long now, so I would rather wait for a retrace and trade it. So lets see if 3430 will give us a chance if it doesnt retrace earlier.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 107 KB


This analysis can also be found at my FOREX BLOG
  • #16,267
  • Jan 13, 2013 9:47pm Jan 13, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting T@rantula
What I usually do is make analysis every morning/day and setups on EURUSD my favourite currency pair. TBH i make living trading EURUSD almost solely so i prefer to do it professionally.
Well done T.. you're one of the very few intraday traders that I had seen over the years who can take money out of the market consistently from the short time that I had been here.. Reacting to intraday PA as you do require sound TA discipline plus good MM.. hats off.. nowadays, I react slowly to M/T bias & do the occasional intraday trades while waiting patiently for the occasional long marching multi-figure paydays..

Looks like Euro's decisive FA & TA break above the 3 month supply zone is confirming M/T smart money are positioned to push Euro up to 1.35~1.46 on this round prior to sub 1.28.. Since FX does not move in a straight line, you can bet that the other camp will be shouting for 1.25~1.20 every time Euro retrace a few figures en-route to 1.35..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU elephant paths-20130110.png Size: 95 KB
  • #16,268
  • Jan 13, 2013 11:25pm Jan 13, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD analysis for today gives me something I can post maybe earlier then usual. We are getting close to 3430 daily resistance before 3485 which is a level to watch for on daily tf.

I have marked the levels on the chart and I see them important. My recommendation is to wait for retracement to begin then draw a fib and jump in. ( Retracement trading) -Counter trend strategy. It is crucial to see h4 close and BEARISH candlestick pattern. I would like it to see around 3430 because it is then when we may see it if it proceeds higher. The target...


Good morning T. and the gang :-)

Hope the weekend was funny :-)



Have a weekly virgin POC at 3443 - it would be kind of unusual not to hit it while we were only a mere 40 pips away
  • #16,269
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:12am Jan 14, 2013 5:12am
Hey guys,

Thanx for asking and comments Yes I had a nice weekend, hope u had the same.

Everything goes as planned though the drop started around 3405 not at 3430 but still the direction is the same. I shorted 2 swings already closed those trades, was a scalp swing trade.

Now the question is, HOW FAR this retracement may go. We have a peculiar situation that this UPMOVE has a swing low and a swing high in particularly DIRECT rise. So if we calulate the swing starting from 9th of january the target could be 3250-3240 ( I have a nice confluence there of FIB retracement + weekly pivot), but if we count the swing ( although its not literally the swing, it was a BREAKOUT- you remember my post about that particular breakout)-11th of January, the first target may be 3325-05.
  • #16,270
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:45am Jan 14, 2013 5:45am
Possible railway pattern on h1. If that is the case, intraday shorts should scale out, put the stop on BE or trail it. This also may be a retest of 3360 due to a small profit taking as NY kicked in.
  • #16,271
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:33am Jan 14, 2013 6:33am
Quoting T@rantula
This also may be a retest of 3360 due to a small profit taking as NY kicked in.
3360 has been retested, and not breached, BPC possible, for a further continuation down BPC valid at the break of 3336.
  • #16,272
  • Jan 14, 2013 7:04am Jan 14, 2013 7:04am
fighting with the channel line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #16,273
  • Jan 14, 2013 7:15am Jan 14, 2013 7:15am
Quoting infinitus
fighting with the channel line
Spot on mate. Thats also 38.2 fib retracement of the BREAKOUT on 11th of January.
  • #16,274
  • Edited 11:54am Jan 14, 2013 11:20am | Edited 11:54am
Price went from 3404 to 3336 today failing to reach major intraday supports 3325-05. We need to see daily close. Chances are it might continue lower but only on 3334 break but also there are chances to continue higher as we have 3 bar pullback bullish pattern on h4.

We will see tomorrow, expect the analysis as always.
  • #16,275
  • Jan 14, 2013 8:40pm Jan 14, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting infinitus
fighting with the channel line
and back at it again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #16,276
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:43am Jan 15, 2013 4:43am
Hi guys, my inet connection was down so I couldnt post and make charts. But now we see that it has happened.

As I told u yesterday break of 3336 got the price in our target zone 3325-05, but that target zone was YESTERDAY's target zone so based on some calculations of ATR and H4 patterns 3295 and 3260 are targets fir this retracements.
  • #16,277
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:06am Jan 15, 2013 5:06am
This is a potential AB=CD move... there are obstacles though 3292 and the cluster from 3250 to 3280...trend still up... violent moves up generally have sharp and fast corrections... this looks like one in happening as we speak... i will wait to buy in the cluster lower down... 3250-3280... i will try to get more precise entries.. my levels are coming up as 3280, 3295... close below 3250 culd bring us down to 3211... i don't see this happening currently..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: T.png Size: 59 KB
  • #16,278
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:19am Jan 15, 2013 5:19am
Quoting jaylovin
This is a potential AB=CD move... there are obstacles though 3292 and the cluster from 3250 to 3280...trend still up... violent moves up generally have sharp and fast corrections... this looks like one in happening as we speak... i will wait to buy in the cluster lower down... 3250-3280... i will try to get more precise entries.. my levels are coming up as 3280, 3295... close below 3250 culd bring us down to 3211... i don't see this happening currently..
Yes 3300 is a psych level and we have 3295 there. Based on fibs and your ABCD it can happen that we go there later today. 3211 I dont see it today, only at the break of 3260.

Also caution is advised as we are still in uptrend so retracement trades should be played out with good MM.
  • #16,279
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:03am Jan 15, 2013 6:03am
Quoting infinitus
and back at it again
and now on it from below



damn it, had my TP set to 3307, missed by a mere 2 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #16,280
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:07am Jan 15, 2013 6:07am
it stopped right at the 38.2 line of a fib fan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 74 KB
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