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Trading EURUSD only

  • #30,081
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:45pm Jan 12, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting Vergis92
Yes, I have been trading on and off for 12 years, I have found that the so called 2:1 risk reward ratio with
small stops doesn't really work, stops of 300-500 pips work much better, it may sound ridiculous to have a 500 pip stop, to try and catch a 200 pip profit ( 5:2 ratio), but in practice, the probability of winning and not getting stopped out, in a good system, increases dramatically because of the large stop.

If you are after catching big moves, 80-100 pips or more, it may be better to trade using Binary Options,
some types of...
There is no need to stop at 200 pips. It is better to let the profit run until a reversal. 200 pips can not even cover one stop loss. If the winning ratio is 50% then u are losing money. For making a profit, you need 500 + pips on a winning trade if the win rate is 50%. Well the winning rate could be higher or the gain on a good trade could be larger than 500 pips.
  • #30,082
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:51am Jan 13, 2013 5:51am
I did read on the topic of setting stops for Mechanical long term trend following systems and it does work the way you say, by which I mean larger stops. But there is no targets there trades usually left to run until reversal signal or time stop. so, sometimes winners are smaller than risk, sometimes bigger. overall it works long term but only when trades are taken along the trend cause many guys especially at myfxbook take contra trend trades with some 500-600 pips stops which obviously have good chance to get hit. adding to losing positions also does not help.
Money management is important in this case. most probably trader doe snot risk just 1% on such trades especially when he/she trades one pair or instrument.
Interesting discussion.
However when trader is good at price action, and see signal that trend is starting to only start looking for lower risk entry and is prepared to take partial leaving the rest running he/she might have considerably smaller stop.

It will be interesting to see what e/u will do. chances of break out are always smaller than failure. my stop at be. let' see.

Quoting Vergis92
Yes, I have been trading on and off for 12 years, I have found that the so called 2:1 risk reward ratio with
small stops doesn't really work, stops of 300-500 pips work much better, it may sound ridiculous to have a 500 pip stop, to try and catch a 200 pip profit ( 5:2 ratio), but in practice, the probability of winning and not getting stopped out, in a good system, increases dramatically because of the large stop.

If you are after catching big moves, 80-100 pips or more, it may be better to trade using Binary Options,
some types of...
  • #30,083
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:56am Jan 13, 2013 5:56am
Steve hi, how is your ankle? Are you into Elliot Waves now?

Quoting stevewalker
EW news letter
if you count >=5 waves @ one lower TF or actual TF
where actual TF has a PB ( counted reverse waves should be in PB distance )
& price still cannot break through REZ or SUP
most probably its a fill move to the trend direction @ actulal TF

hope I am clear.
  • #30,084
  • Jan 13, 2013 7:55am Jan 13, 2013 7:55am
I know it's 8 hours til market opens, but the UTC market over the w/end has been extremely calm, currently within a pip of Friday close

Many weekends there is still quite a bit of fluctuation

So wonder if there will be any gap up or down
  • #30,085
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:57am Jan 13, 2013 8:57am
Shiko, It is better to trade on 4H charts and set a smaller stop loss because 300 pips stop may hurt a lot if your leverage is high. Imagine stopped out 3 times in a row. Big movements only happens one or two times a year so trend followers have to extremely patient and its possible there is no big movement at all for a whole year on a certain pair. I am currently using 4h charts and found there are good trades even in a ranging market so I will not get bored.

I think e/u is in a breakout mode and I am long. But the future is unknown so any price prediction might be wrong.
  • #30,086
  • Jan 13, 2013 10:03am Jan 13, 2013 10:03am
My entries mostly based upon 1H charts after signal on daily. It's profit taking that should be revised. MOst of my trades are in profits most of the time. also, if total of all trades is a good profit like it has been many times I might just close everything and take money like I did this week. i am taking half now every time r:r is 1:1 or price s for a long time. considering I am watching 12 pairs now it is more than twice a year really big moves and I do not want to depend on the to make money hence I am not going to stay in no trade for more than 4 weeks now.

Quoting mry2001
Shiko, It is better to trade on 4H charts and set a smaller stop loss because 300 pips stop may hurt a lot if your leverage is high. Imagine stopped out 3 times in a row. Big movements only happens one or two times a year so trend followers have to extremely patient and its possible there is no big movement at all for a whole year on a certain pair. I am currently using 4h charts and found there are good trades even in a ranging market so I will not get bored.

I think e/u is in a breakout mode and I am long. But the future is unknown so any...
  • #30,087
  • Jan 13, 2013 10:05am Jan 13, 2013 10:05am
I never use high leverage. My risk is usually 1% for 100-150 pips. BTW, volatility is considerably up now...
  • #30,088
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:01pm Jan 13, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting xandi
Hi Miguel, thanks for your kind words..my last trade was on wednesday, I bought EurJpy at 114,90, with hope of keeping that forever

...but I closed it when price made his last retracement -30 pips against me...

...today(2 days after) it reached 119,30...340 pips above, and I´m bit disappointed, for many reasons...wish I can trade relaxed, not at work, 100% focus...could avoid some bad decisions of mine!
Hi Xandi, i am happy for you that you have a good profit, now hope we are all going to have anther good week again.
We'll see what tricks they are going to make for this week => fast up or fast down or side way...!?!? ...i will not be surprise if it start to go up to 1.34 before any down move !?
  • #30,089
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:04pm Jan 13, 2013 3:04pm
Morning from NZ

Everybody happy

I am still trading in turtle mode

playing safe an rebuilding pip by pip

Feels great can't wait to be back playing in the

danger zone.

Just need to be very good for a we bit longer.

Have a good week trading
  • #30,090
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:14pm Jan 13, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting eliteincome
Morning from NZ

Everybody happy

I am still trading in turtle mode

playing safe an rebuilding pip by pip

Feels great can't wait to be back playing in the

danger zone.

Just need to be very good for a we bit longer.

Have a good week trading
Hi eliteincome, here in uk it's still sunday 21.00h and is a bit cold 0 and under !

Can you tell us what is you thought from NZ, up or down ?
  • #30,091
  • Edited 3:54pm Jan 13, 2013 3:37pm | Edited 3:54pm
Good evening,

Liquidity should be under average => Japan bank holiday

EDIT: 3 long pos. exit +8 price is actual testing friday high
just do it
  • #30,092
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:01pm Jan 13, 2013 4:01pm
Gidday

NZ/US is climbing,they were talking 84.75 last week

I got some pending shorts above in,small ones

I won't go long from here

It can drop like a stone

see what happens this week
  • #30,093
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:08pm Jan 13, 2013 4:08pm
hi thodie
TY for info

Quoting thodie
Good evening,

Liquidity should be under average => Japan bank holiday

EDIT: 3 long pos. exit +8 price is actual testing friday high
  • #30,094
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:10pm Jan 13, 2013 4:10pm
hi steve

hope you had a great WE
setting up charts?
just do it
  • #30,095
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:13pm Jan 13, 2013 4:13pm
yes
exectly.
Japan closed will try to sleep & trade @ UK

Quoting thodie
hi steve

hope you had a great WE
setting up charts?
  • #30,096
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:17pm Jan 13, 2013 4:17pm
Hello all, here paying attention and learning. Burl "Steve" Walker is my name so I guess I will have to be Burl in here:=)
  • #30,097
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:19pm Jan 13, 2013 4:19pm
guys we also should know that
2000 technically dead.
next visit 1.2000 means down at least 1.1000
  • #30,098
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:20pm Jan 13, 2013 4:20pm
well come


Quoting NetBurl
Hello all, here paying attention and learning. Burl "Steve" Walker is my name so I guess I will have to be Burl in here:=)
  • #30,099
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:25pm Jan 13, 2013 4:25pm
i think this will drop today at least 60 pips... i dont see why anyone would go Long from this area. I would be really impressed by the euro then. Good luck guys hope u had a nice weekend.
  • #30,100
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:28pm Jan 13, 2013 4:28pm
CO
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