EURUSD predictive trading

Mike,

So, do you think this advancement up is now exhausting? I held off on getting short yesterday & I think
I will wait until Sunday or Monday since it is late Friday. I have some levels that I will share with you later
today as I am not at my tradestation now. I think just from memory they may line up with what you are
saying. Tks for sharing your views. I have have sent you a PM.

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Mike,

Thanks for the pm. I will dig in.

As some of you will be aware I am looking for the top of a 40 day cycle in the EURUSD, this does not mean that you will get an exact cycle every 40 days.

http://screencast.com/t/sf4VwTQL4l

You can see from the chart the cycle is about 39-41 days in length, so far the market has moved up to 42 Traded days, so we are overdue for a turn, already we hit 1.34, so what I have done is tuned a RSI indicator to the lenth of the cycle which is 40 days and used half that value, this means the RSI is set to 20. When the RSI cuts below 60 that is a strong indication on the daily that the cycle is in. Then I will build short positions following this cycle down.

Mike Haran

Mike,
Thank you for the update. EUR/USD still seems to favor the update a little while longer.
I think if 3425 can contain the upside then & just maybe then the slide down will start.

From your experience do you think there is any Gann related software that is worth the time
& cost?
__________________________

I sold the EURUSD today at 1.3364 stop above the high at 1.34200, we failed to make a new high and one astro aspect occured today that has about a 70% chance of causing a change in trend occured so, that coupled with the idea of a 40 day cycle and the fact that this morning open was a good old down candle got me short.

Lets see what happens with todays price action.

Good trading to all


Mike Haran

Hi Mike

I never checked out your thread on FF. It's impressive. Where the bubbles are coming from ?
Hurst ? Moving Min-Max ? or something else ?

Rgds

Bought GBPJPY at 139.43 target 145 area stop approx 50 pips.

23 Jan 2013


I originally thought this would be a top but its actually a low.

http://screencast.com/t/jWIKaKGSof

I was curious to see if the top was marked by any astro related events and sure enough there was a sun Mercury conjunction on the top, this is an aspect which often seems to cause short term reactions in the trend or extreme days. On a mathematical basis there is also a relationship between the two swing tops and that current low this is almost a 127% increase in time. I checked today to see if we had any Mercury aspects and sure enough Mercury and Jupiter formed a 120 degree separation yesterday night. I looked at the chart and asked myself where would the text book suggest you place your stops, and that would be the swing low, a logical choice for the dealers that have read the same books as you. They did the same trick with the EURUSD a while back and then rallied it to a new high. Most trading books are useless, I suggest that anyone interested in trading ask the question every day "Where are the stops located?" by doing that you are thinking like a dealer and not a sheep.

Lets see how this goes.

All the best


Mike Haran

GBPJPY

Update

Often the first move in the GBPJPY are of the magnitude
126
136
146

so I have three options

1) Exit my buy trade knowing it will possibly retrace, sometimes these retraces come back to virtually the same low
2) Hold my buy trade and take a short position, thereby locking the trade.
3)Do nothing.

These first up moves often last 3,5,10 hours, personally I will exit the trade and then look to re-enter again.


All the best

Mike Haran

Hi Mike .. just to say hi and I recently I started with astro stuff which is so complex .. and I am trying to simplify it as much as I can, so I am checking relationship between Moon vs Jupiter and Saturn with different degrees of separations (30,90,120). Btw. also I saw you started posting on some other forum as well .. cycles thread .. keep with good work.

http://screencast.com/t/1fwgbLHRSbKT

Here is the price and time target estimation for the GBPJPY, I closed out today after the GBPJPY moved 146 and a bit more pips up, I am now short looking to get out in the early european session. If we do not exceed the last daily low we are on our way to a 145 and higher target.

A couple of people think I am making up these trades after the fact so here is my pip count for today

http://screencast.com/t/MtEvxuPvJ8a


Mike Haran

My analysis points to a possible top about the 26th Jan, the yen has had a great run this month, but now I think the end of month profit taking will fall into play. However I do not think this is the final leg down. It might look like it but I am sure the market will want to trap as many players long as possible. According to my fractal analysis 144.372 would have been a high possibility as a top.

All the best

Mike Haran

I think we are in for a pullback on the GBPJPY, until the 5th or 6th perhaps 280-350 pips. BOE anounce interest rates on Thursday so if they leave them unchanged the GBP could just slide on Thursday, but usually the London boys will push it up to trap traders wrong footed.

Watch out on the EURUSD Yohay is bullish which means the top is close, better than any indicator he mostly gets direction wrong, thats not to say we might not pull some more traders into the market on the long side, but I have my eye on it.

Looking at this level marked with the arrow

http://screencast.com/t/RYbuUQ6p

So far eurusd looks like.

I am posting 30m wave count as a tread setup. If you like you can tread this. There is divergence in cci and stoch is also moving up. in chart looks like wave 4 complete. i don't add the abc here but i check in 15m chart and i am confirm about that. if wave 4 goes more complex then the tread can touch sl. to me you can tread at market price and sl at 1.3176

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Blue wave 3 is near to complete. murry math suggest that pivot at price 1.3366 and fibo also suggest that 0.618 level at 1.3343 so we can understand this is a zone to complete wave 3. Also notice the divergence spotted yesterday is still valid. i added stochastic indicator because of few followers ask me about it. also stoch indicator suggest that wave 3 will be complete soon.

Looks like Blue wave 3 complete. i will be more confirm after i will get more price date. But with the help of indicators i am 90% sure that wave 3 complete and now we are in wave 4 down. see EWO and CCi indicator both showing divergence that i spotted 2 days ago and stoch is also showing the price reach the max it can be now need to retrace. if you want to tread this i suggest short now and sl at recent high 3389+ 10 pips at 1.3400.

So far looks likes yesterday we complete blue wave 3 and start blue wave 4. so far in chart there is two count possible. one is 1,2 of wave a down another is a,b of wave 4. Anyway whatever is the count is more downside is possible. remember don't forget to place your sl at blue wave 3 high at 1.3389+3 pips.

Market is very slow which i don't like at all. But as this is start of wave 4 this kind of behavior is expected. Not much forecast to do with sl at 1.3400 you can tread this wave 4 easily.

Very Unexpected wave 4 and 5 complete or the eave 4 will be more complex then we see before. for that we need to wait for more market date. once i confirm the count i will post with some trading ideas.

As i already told you we complete red wave C and now it's time to go down but before that we need some confirmation. here is it. wave 1 down complete and now we are in wave 2. wave 2 max position is 1.3305 based on murry math. i am planing to tread this when it bounce form 1.3305 and take us to new low.