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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,941
  • Edited 2:56am Jan 11, 2013 2:09am | Edited 2:56am
Reminds me of someone , was a security man.
Very tough chap.
He didn't like the kill or be killed life style.
so he opened roadside stall sell fruits, supporting his very old mom.
Because was road side stall, always was raided and his goods confiscated.
He never accepted any handouts, even when offered.
Stand on his abilities type of personality.

Until he had no more capital, he joined illegal casinos as security.
Was killed doing his job.
was blown up by hand granade.

what a waste, was a good man.
Forced into path he not wanted to go.
Without good schooling and without paper qualifications many peeps are forced into roads of no returns.

regards

not everyone living in the world is very fortunate.
Not everyone can become lawyers, Doctors, accountants, bankers,..................
Some peeps are abused like crazy because they not have chance for a good education.

Some peeps have everything, and their ego runs their lives.

The you tube chap,his parants sent him for a good education.
seems he learned very little.

He best not meet me. will be nightmares for me.
As we sows , so shall we reap.
there's no other ways.
For those who battles, eventually all shall perish.
Try be close to God's guidance, do no evil, eventually goes home.
Honourable discharged.

If i may be so bold, ask.
If you doing very well trading.
If you see needy peeps around, If you can just give them a boost in life.
May make lots difference for their futures.
  • #37,942
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:46am Jan 11, 2013 2:46am
Quoting drzakir123
hey ur absolutley welcome.i was trying to tell him,not to be predictive about tops and bottom.and also i am not predicting about anything,its just that i want to work with long bias and feel for the price where its going,thats all.till last week i had a short bias and now i am on the other side.i am sorry if come across as rude but working where i work sometime one tend to loose the subltleness of being asian.so my apologies.one more thing if u blow up number of account i blown one will stop being predictive in his approach to the market,and learnt...


Hi dr


I am sorry if you took my post to mean I thought you are rude, I certainly do not think that at all, direct/polite is not rude you say what you think without dressing it up to much, something I would expect from a man in your noble profession and a good quality I believe, I am not the best at explaining myself at times and all I meant was I do not mind anyone agreeing or disagreeing with me but I have no time for people who are just plain rude which you are not.


Having a bias is a rigid mindset in any ones trading time scale, I believe we should prepare to be open to all outcomes and be looking to exploit weakness as it presents itself is what I was trying to say.


My apologises I did not mean to offend you.


God bless you sir


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #37,943
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:51am Jan 11, 2013 2:51am
Quoting phil13
Hi dr


Having a bias is a rigid mindset in any ones trading time scale, I believe we should prepare to be open to all outcomes and be looking to exploit weakness as it presents itself is what I was trying to say.




God bless you sir


regards



regards


Phil.
If i May, my friend.
we not looking exploit weakness mostly.
We only capitalising the opportunities that opens to us, skillfully.

There's nothing to expliot, we can only take what markets gives.
All in market are willing combatants. There's nothing personal in the rings.
Only skills and survival.

In fact the battle is not against anyone, its our, self management.

regards
  • #37,944
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:07am Jan 11, 2013 3:07am
Hi fti


I understand, as I say sometimes I am not the best at explaining myself, thank you for your continued guidance.


regard


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #37,945
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:27am Jan 11, 2013 5:27am
What a messy market.
Everyone's going everywhere.
whats cooking?
  • #37,946
  • Jan 11, 2013 8:18am Jan 11, 2013 8:18am
Quoting fti
Reminds me of someone , was a security man.
Very tough chap.
He didn't like the kill or be killed life style.
so he opened roadside stall sell fruits, supporting his very old mom.
Because was road side stall, always was raided and his goods confiscated.
He never accepted any handouts, even when offered.
Stand on his abilities type of personality.

Until he had no more capital, he joined illegal casinos as security.
Was killed doing his job.
was blown up by hand granade.

what a waste, was a good man.
Forced into path he not wanted to go.
Without...
If i may be so bold, ask.
If you doing very well trading.
If you see needy peeps around, If you can just give them a boost in life.
May make lots difference for their futures.[/quote]

yes sir,,
understandable
nice to meet you

salaam
  • #37,947
  • Jan 11, 2013 8:18am Jan 11, 2013 8:18am
Hi fti,

USDYEN is looking much better than EURUSD on longer and shortert time frames since last few weeks. Let's see where they want to take it to.

Euro has made big moves in last two days, I still have final long to close and very soon. Probably need to wait for the right time to short when this hopium train will stop i.e. 1.35 - 1.38
  • #37,948
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:00am Jan 11, 2013 9:00am
Quoting fti
If i May, my friend.
we not looking exploit weakness mostly.
We only capitalising the opportunities that opens to us, skillfully.

There's nothing to expliot, we can only take what markets gives.
All in market are willing combatants. There's nothing personal in the rings.
Only skills and survival.

In fact the battle is not against anyone, its our, self management.

regards
it seems i am becoming good in anticipating,i was actually expecting this kind of response from u while reading phil's post.lol.the other things is my long positions still on and they are showing about 300 green pips,taken the cream off and left with a small possition running.i will probably add to the positions next week as and i see opportunity.i have to go now few families waiting for me.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,949
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:58am Jan 11, 2013 9:58am
Fti could you talk more about why it is we dont see the where the market actually is? You said that no one interbank quotes running prices but rather is only given when someone asked to deal at a price level, so our brokers will be asking interbank for a price and then they put there spread over it meaning we pay a little more. When you check the different prices from brokers and quotes they are all the same why is there not a difference if the invidual brokers are giving us slightly different prices depending on there adjustments.?

Also if the price we currently see is far off from the real price, how much is the delay.?

sorry if my questions seem stupid my understanding of market structure is pretty bad, I am looking for things to read online to help with my understanding.
  • #37,950
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:06am Jan 11, 2013 11:06am
Quoting drzakir123
it seems i am becoming good in anticipating.
but that is not the right protocol. is not what the old man tries teach. be careful in markets.

regards
  • #37,951
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:08am Jan 11, 2013 11:08am
Quoting simpleman
USDYEN is looking much better than EURUSD on longer and shortert time frames since last few weeks. Let's see where they want to take it to.
good for you simpleman. carry on.

regards
  • #37,952
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:22am Jan 11, 2013 11:22am
Quoting Acs_112
Fti could you talk more about why it is we dont see the where the market actually is? You said that no one interbank quotes running prices but rather is only given when someone asked to deal at a price level, so our brokers will be asking interbank for a price and then they put there spread over it meaning we pay a little more. When you check the different prices from brokers and quotes they are all the same why is there not a difference if the invidual brokers are giving us slightly different prices depending on there adjustments.?

Also if the...
this may helpl;

"The truth is that market was taken very very large when broke the support.
mostly the buying was there.

The run up was deperados chasing and those hit beyound their threshold cutting away.
I suspected correctly from hindsight, many birdies died.
Thats why there is no retracement.
All cutted meat along the way.
Every market maker was in the way blocking harbour, so only way was to cut before chasers arrived.
Absolutely no liquidity providers.
All heros, they mostly dead heros.

I believe they still cutting away even today.
but need see the sitting duck levels to know how deal with it.

If no CBs comes provide liquidity, then the shivering in pjs continues.
If they show , may have a counterattack."

regards
  • #37,953
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:25am Jan 11, 2013 11:25am
Quoting fti
not everyone living in the world is very fortunate.
Not everyone can become lawyers, Doctors, accountants, bankers,..................
Some peeps are abused like crazy because they not have chance for a good education.
why do they reap what they did not sow?

regards
  • #37,954
  • Edited 11:38am Jan 11, 2013 11:26am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting Acs_112
Fti could you talk more about why it is we dont see the where the market actually is? You said that no one interbank quotes running prices but rather is only given when someone asked to deal at a price level, so our brokers will be asking interbank for a price and then they put there spread over it meaning we pay a little more. When you check the different prices from brokers and quotes they are all the same why is there not a difference if the invidual brokers are giving us slightly different prices depending on there adjustments.?

Also if the...
Mostly because these markets are OTC.
Which means someone in financial institutions, they making you, the customers a price to trade.
So market depends on what his risk profile looks like.
When customers hit the prices, is not necessary that they will move prices, unless they opinioned that holding is not advantages.
Meantime since they have positions given by customers, the natural thingy to do is to shade the other way in their favour .
Hoping that in the next hour or so even next few mins some one will hit them the opposite side making them squared and with spread + sllipage profits from both transactions.
This the function of market making.
They have very large cap base so their risk tolerance is very big.

so unless someone is hitting in hundreds of millions, tendency is the local prices will be shaded in their favour in the short term.

So where is the market?
They are the markets, the market makers.

There is alot of sectorial plays amongst zones, so sometimes the markets are made to move in ways that become to the shape of the dealers books.
There are many strategies these big boys can impliment.
But since they not always quoting markets but in groups, then shades can also be be influenced by brokers, mostly interbank brokers.

The question you asked why may markets not be at their equlibriums mostly.
Is because your counter parties are BIG. And they have capacity be on positions against your hits,
So prices in short term may be to their favour.

What happen on the up run day was probably they got taken big in the currencies.
Too big to hold and the taking of other counter parties rippled thru the system, Tier 1 to tier 2 to tier 3 to everyone.
everyone making prices got taken and it just requched the market on an up spiral.
Of course the triggering of stops along the way up assisted in the run.

This one reason i asked in begining of thread that traders should study the market structure.
So that can understand the look of the terrain, and recognise the behavioural moves.


regards
  • #37,955
  • Edited 12:36pm Jan 11, 2013 11:51am | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting cuthbert
why do they reap what they did not sow?

regards
i not able to judge why.
only i know it comes.
because its natural law.
when or how it comes, it depends on God.

I know in my lifetime, was tested many many times.
sometimes failed , sometimes prayed and found the answers.
Most answers came not while i asked.
is like a jiggsaw puzzle, they slowly fit together from study and experience.
then we understand God's might.

What i learned in life is, the strong, they mostly no need show their might.
Is the weak that trys to mitigate by behaving otherwise.

regards

Dad taught me, i didn't understood then.
he said " when you Big man,
speak softly and do big things.
if you become loud is because you weak trying get attention get things done."

When i reached senior management then the lesson became reality.

you can also see it taught in AOW.
When strong...................when weaker.................

these the wise learns from life.

Why?
ok, tell me, why is the sky blue?

a child who not understand will ask why.
if one understand , just accepts and think how.

Jesus also taught.
"Seek and you shall find, knock and .............."
Why has no answers.
How is where you will find the cause and /or solutions.
  • #37,956
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:38pm Jan 11, 2013 12:38pm
[quote=phil13;6356821]Hi dr


I am sorry if you took my post to mean I thought you are rude, I certainly do not think that at all, direct/polite is not rude you say what you think without dressing it up to much, something I would expect from a man in your noble profession and a good quality I believe, I am not the best at explaining myself at times and all I meant was I do not mind anyone agreeing or disagreeing with me but I have no time for people who are just plain rude which you are not.


Having a bias is a rigid mindset in any ones trading time scale, I believe we should prepare to be open to all outcomes and be looking to exploit weakness as it presents itself is what I was trying to say.


My apologises I did not mean to offend you.


God bless you sir


regards


Phil.


no worries,its all water under the bridge.i always try to go in the same river and somehow found myself not in the same river.
ok,here it goes,i like having rigid bias till i feel sick of it,otherwise i will be flipping every tick.seriously if u go couple of pages back, i asked the same question to fti and he gave me an answer which i am very satisfied with and i feel more flexible having a bias now and i can dare say last 300 pips move i caught is the results of his advise.to me having a bias is very important and i dont care whether my bias right or wrong as long as it tell something to me. thanks
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,957
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:46pm Jan 11, 2013 12:46pm
Thanks for your reply Fti, I still need to digest all the information and do some further reading to help build my understanding. But i added some initial thoughts.

Also it is very helpful when you comment about the structure as you did earlier about the recent surge upwards. It is very valuable to see your insights from your personal experience dealing with the markets.






Mostly because these markets are OTC.
Which means someone in financial institutions, they making you, the customers a price to trade.
So market depends on what his risk profile looks like.
When customers hit the prices, is not necessary that they will move prices, unless they opinioned that holding is not advantages. This is because they take the opposite position to you.? If they have the opinion that the position is not advantageousness they dont have to hold the opposite position and can sit aside? Is this what happened the other day which is why the move just fed on it self as there was no counter party to stop it, with no retracement as the market makers did not need to offload there positions.?
Meantime since they have positions given by customers, the natural thingy to do is to shade the other way in their favour .
Hoping that in the next hour or so even next few mins some one will hit them the opposite side making them squared and with spread + sllipage profits from both transactions.
This the function of market making.
They have very large cap base so their risk tolerance is very big.

so unless someone is hitting in hundreds of millions, tendency is the local prices will be shaded in their favour in the short term.

So where is the market?
They are the markets, the market makers.

There is alot of sectorial plays amongst zones, so sometimes the markets are made to move in ways that become to the shape of the dealers books.
There are many strategies these big boys can impliment.
But since they not always quoting markets but in groups, then shades can also be be influenced by brokers, mostly interbank brokers. i dont understand what you mean here.? not quoting markets but in groups..? Is the price being shaded to the brokers.? and then shaded even more once it gets to us.?

The question you asked why may markets not be at their equlibriums mostly.
Is because your counter parties are BIG. And they have capacity be on positions against your hits,
So prices in short term may be to their favour.

What happen on the up run day was probably they got taken big in the currencies.
Too big to hold and the taking of other counter parties rippled thru the system, Tier 1 to tier 2 to tier 3 to everyone.
everyone making prices got taken and it just requched the market on an up spiral.
Of course the triggering of stops along the way up assisted in the run. Am i correct to assume that tier 1 give a price to tier 2 who add there spread who give a price to tier 3 who again add there spread who give it to everyone.?

This one reason i asked in begining of thread that traders should study the market structure. Yeah i really see how important this is
So that can understand the look of the terrain, and recognise the behavioural moves.


regards
  • #37,958
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:58pm Jan 11, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting Acs_112
This is because they take the opposite position to you.? If they have the opinion that the position is not advantageousness they dont have to hold the opposite position and can sit aside? Is this what happened the other day which is why the move just fed on it self as there was no counter party to stop it, with no retracement as the market makers did not need to offload there positions.?
what happened i suspect was the customer took teir 1 offers big.
if tier 1 is uncomfortable with that.
He calls out to other teir 1s and tier 2 and tier 3s and buys from them, probably added his own size to the buying,
then theose got taken by him also needs call out because everyone will be quoting up afetr a while.
and the spiral will tail chase itself until the point some one takes the risk on the positions.
In this case started near 1.60+ ended after several long legs at 1.6150+

you can see the process kept sipralling prices up until when it settled.
all along the way many dead corpses.

regards
  • #37,959
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:59pm Jan 11, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting cuthbert
but that is not the right protocol. is not what the old man tries teach. be careful in markets.

regards
better sentence is ''is not what fti tries teach'' may be u owe an apology
to fti for using such language.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,960
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:05pm Jan 11, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting Acs_112

There is alot of sectorial plays amongst zones, so sometimes the markets are made to move in ways that become to the shape of the dealers books.
There are many strategies these big boys can impliment.
But since they not always quoting markets but in groups, then shades can also be be influenced by brokers, mostly interbank brokers. i dont understand what you mean here.? not quoting markets but in groups..? Is the price being shaded to the brokers.? and then shaded even more once it gets to us.?
every one shades prices depending on how their book is.
every market maker try to compete for the business.
otherwise how they justify the salaries?

But when ,arkets are moving rapidly, they also know from the movement of the prices.
So when asked for a price to transact, tendency is to shade into the diresction where its shading.

If i was quoting 1.6000/02 for example.
and i see the markets moving , i will suspect they been taken ,
and if others starts calling me for a price
i will not quote 00/02 any more
probably 05/07
if i get taken 07
and another one calls me i probably quote 10/12?
you get the picture?

regards
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