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If you have a powerful strategy how can you sell it ??

  • #41
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:25am Jan 10, 2013 2:25am
sorry but this is just b*llshit.

1) why in the world would you want to sell a very profitable strategy ?
2) if you have no track record of actually trading this strategy of AT LEAST 1 year, forget it, the institutions and banks or whoever you want to sell it to (and is knowledgeable in the market, not newbs) will tell you to **** off
3) if the strategy is how you say it is, trade it for at least 1 year, and then you could try and sell it to institutions/whatever. OH WAIT ! it makes your K into 100K in that year. What's the point in 1) then ?

i've said it before, and i will say it again: a trader, who has worked hard and developed a system of his own, that if profitable, YEAR AFTER YEAR !!!!!!! (not profitbale for 2 months, we are talking years here), will in 95% of cases not sell it. Why would he ? And if he were to sell it, he'd sell it for millions. or be hired by a hedge fund or bank/investment institution and still make millions in salary+bonuses.

get real


/thread
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #42
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:52am Jan 10, 2013 2:52am
Let's see if I am understanding this.
You say that entry strategy is not important. Money/trade management is.

If my strategy was simply to open a long position on GBPUSD every day at 8:00 AM GMT with a 50pip SL and 50 pip TP.
Statistically, I would expect about 49% win rate (because of spread) . With an R:R of 1:1, my account would be slowly whittled away to zero.
Are you saying that by using your MM, I would be able to make a lot of profit using this entry strategy?
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #43
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:18pm Jan 10, 2013 12:18pm
zelenko can any one helb me i read the first bage
and i dont understand any thing

lol! were you learning English back then?
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #44
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:24pm Jan 10, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Gumrai
Let's see if I am understanding this.
You say that entry strategy is not important. Money/trade management is.

If my strategy was simply to open a long position on GBPUSD every day at 8:00 AM GMT with a 50pip SL and 50 pip TP.
Statistically, I would expect about 49% win rate (because of spread) . With an R:R of 1:1, my account would be slowly whittled away to zero.
Are you saying that by using your MM, I would be able to make a lot of profit using this entry strategy?


there is one more rule

-- the target is twice the stop

in addition to

- one trade at a time
- pre defined stop loss

give me this three rules with wining rate 15-20%(((( lose four trades and win one ))) i give you what you want with a very small draw down
  • #45
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:26pm Jan 10, 2013 12:26pm
reflecting on Hanover's awesome post.

i don't believe that in this world, there could be a PROFITABLE system that does not accept losses.
  • #46
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:29pm Jan 10, 2013 12:29pm
zelenko, these folks are trying to cheat you to disclose your nuke bomb system

don't be fooled.

Quoting zelenko
there is one more rule

-- the target is twice the stop

in addition to

- one trade at a time
- pre defined stop loss

give me this three rules with wining rate 15-20%(((( lose four trades and win one ))) i give you what you want with a very small draw down
  • #47
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:09pm Jan 10, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting zelenko
i want to make some settings and i was going to ask you how

first of all the secret in the sysytem is the money management ( risk managment ) not the buy or sell signals

and any trade has the following parameters

- open and close price : i don't have any problem to show them but that will not reflect the power of the system

- the profit in pips : i don't have any problem to show them but that will not reflect the power of the system

- lot size : i can't show it because anyone could follow for example if any one good...
On myfxbook click your username(topright) then click settings.Then down there click the dot to public for account. Other dots should be at private. This way you wouldn't have to reveal your lots and your profits in dollars. Look at my account for example. Your account will look similar to mine.
  • #48
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:10pm Jan 10, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting charvo
zelenko, these folks are trying to cheat you to disclose your nuke bomb system

don't be fooled.
I am curious about it because i want to be inspired.
  • #49
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:51pm Jan 10, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting zelenko
there is one more rule

-- the target is twice the stop

in addition to

- one trade at a time
- pre defined stop loss

give me this three rules with wining rate 15-20%(((( lose four trades and win one ))) i give you what you want with a very small draw down
I can give you these 3 rules with a 45% winning percentage. It's so simple, it only uses 2 moving averages. I can also give you another strategy with a 5:1 risk/reward and a 30% winning percentage. Really, this is something that you find everywhere. The problem is: do you have what it takes to follow the rules and trade it? Most traders don't. Trading is done by people (sometimes with the help of powerful computers), strategies you can find everywhere.
  • #50
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:21pm Jan 10, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Gumrai
Hanover,
I must admit that I didn't look at the trade explorer before.
Now that I have had a look, then it doesn't appear that he is using a martingale strategy as such.
His TE shows that he is, or rather, was adding to losing positions, holding and hoping.
This is an extremely risky way to trade.
He went short GU in April and as the price rose, he added more and more positions. He got away with it that time and effectively doubled his account. But would have suffered a terrible drawdown.
He went short GU again in May, again adding to losing positions....
Personally I'm not saying that he hasn't found a niche or that his system doesn't do what it claims to do. But from having a good system to actually following its rules is a long way.

My opinion is that systems choose traders and not the other way around. Each trader needs to have a system that he can follow, he needs to ask himself questions ("how many times do I want to push the button each day/week?", "what are the trading hours when I'm available?", "can I enjoy trading with a negative expectancy and a positive r/r?" etc...) and choose according to his personality and lifestyle.

For example I couldn't possibly follow a scalping system. I'd be getting tired in 3-4 days even if I made money. Nor could I be following a system that offers signals once every 2 weeks, I'd be getting bored and anxious and start making mistakes. So his system may be appropriate for some people, while others wouldn't be making money.

In the end I'm sure it's some form of Martingale, which is very powerful if applied under the right conditions. Martingale wouldn't necessarily mean doubling lot sizez every 100 pips, it can also mean scaling in and out of a position or increasing volume by 30-40% when market conditions allow. All traders use some modified form of Martingale if I could say so, as different forms of Martingale are generically called "money management"; it may even be the only way to make money in the markets.

So I can believe what he says, but if he claims that he's got an automated system that you can plug it in and go to sleep and it will make money - that I wouldn't believe!
  • #51
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:41pm Jan 10, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting charvo
zelenko, these folks are trying to cheat you to disclose your nuke bomb system

don't be fooled.
of course we're all curious about it, but if I personally would be asked to pay 5% of my account size for it - I wouldn't be paying. I may have dropped 100 winning strategies until I found 2 which suit my personality and which I could trade according to the rules and still enjoy this activity. Who knows if that strategy would be making money for me or not.

Take all strategy threads on the forex factory forum: there will be some people making money, there will be some people losing and others barely breaking even on the same rules. So I wouldn't be curious to see his strategy so I could steal it, I would be curious to see if I could trade it )
  • #52
  • Edited 5:28pm Jan 10, 2013 2:56pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting zelenko
there is one more rule

-- the target is twice the stop

in addition to

- one trade at a time
- pre defined stop loss

give me this three rules with wining rate 15-20%(((( lose four trades and win one ))) i give you what you want with a very small draw down
Statistically, a 20% hit rate with R:R of 1:2 will result in a loss of 2 times risk over 5 trades.
If risking 2% on every trade, a loss of 4%

The only way to make this a winning system is by increasing the risk after a loser or sequence of losses.

Eg. after 4 losses, you may double the risk and IF the 5th trade is a winner, it will recoup your losses from the previous 4.
This can work fine for a while until you hit a losing streak of 15 trades that wipes out the account.

As your strategy is mathmatical, you will have obviously calculated the number of losses that would result in total loss of the account? What is the figure for a 20% win rate?

EDIT. Parmalat pointed out that I had mistakenely typed the R:R as 1:1. I now changed it to 1:2
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #53
  • Jan 10, 2013 4:31pm Jan 10, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Gumrai
Statistically, a 20% hit rate with R:R of 1:1 will result in a loss of 2 times risk over 5 trades.
If risking 2% on every trade, a loss of 4%

The only way to make this a winning system is by increasing the risk after a loser or sequence of losses.

Eg. after 4 losses, you may double the risk and IF the 5th trade is a winner, it will recoup your losses from the previous 4.
This can work fine for a while until you hit a losing streak of 15 trades that wipes out the account.

As your strategy is mathmatical, you will have obviously calculated the...
I don't think anyone can come up with a strategy with a 20% hit rate for 1:1 risk/reward cause that would mean 80% hit rate for the opposite position. I see he mentions something like 1:2 risk/reward (target is twice the stop) and that would be more plausible.

But if a strategy uses 1:2 risk/reward and still gets only 20% hit rate it means it's not a good strategy, it doesn't make use of the trend which gives positive expectancy. The trend is the only edge which traders have in the forex market. In other markets it's different, for example a trader of stocks may want to employ a strategy that takes account of support/resistance levels because you have a better edge from trading support/resistance rules than from trading trend rules.

With a 1:2 risk/reward and making good use of the trend, a strategy must achieve above 40% hit rate for a retail account that benefits from minimum slippage.

And then of course comes the problem of losing series: maybe not 15 in a row because the trend offers positive expectancy for each event (trade placed) and a series of 15 is likely to be interrupted, but 6-7-8 losses in a row are guaranteed to happen, especially if we're talking about pairs which are simply not trending. These losses occur mostly in periods before important news is being released. Take for example the pin-bar continuation strategy which is one of the most powerful price action setups available. Just try to trade it in the week prior to the announcement of the Fed's interest rate...

The problem is: who can handle these 6-7-8 losses in a row followed by 2 wins and then maybe another 6 losses in a row and stick with the same rules for the future? Even if knowing that statistically the same series will be repeated in the future, with the trader being on the positive side this time. Besides strategy and money management, managing emotions is an all-important part of trading, that's why I'm always saying trading is being done by people and what is effective for one person is not necessarily as effective for another person. These young traders need to learn a lot, improve themselves and balance their expectations from the market; if they think a good strategy guarantees them to win, well it's not so.
  • #54
  • Jan 10, 2013 4:50pm Jan 10, 2013 4:50pm
Super strategy... Aha aha
I got mine too wanna buy it for $1m?

Okay - sarcasm away -
1) how long did you test your system in demo?
2) How much trade did you made with it?
3) What was your risk ratio?
It's all psychology...
  • #55
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:13pm Jan 10, 2013 5:13pm
Read all that with high hopes of something good, but alas NO chance, and he thought he'd get 1/2Mil or atleast some small fish handing some cash over for the info LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #56
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:50pm Jan 10, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting Supertrader9
On myfxbook click your username(topright) then click settings.Then down there click the dot to public for account. Other dots should be at private. This way you wouldn't have to reveal your lots and your profits in dollars. Look at my account for example. Your account will look similar to mine.


very good thats what i want

it only show if the balance is growing or decreasing but not every trade >>>>> is that right???

the last thing i want :

the account i attached to fxbook is not my main account it's an old account so it have an old trades from 6 months can i till fxbook to start my history from today not from the beginning of the account ??? and how

thank you very much for you help
  • #57
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:55pm Jan 10, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting Parmalat
I can give you these 3 rules with a 45% winning percentage. It's so simple, it only uses 2 moving averages. I can also give you another strategy with a 5:1 risk/reward and a 30% winning percentage. Really, this is something that you find everywhere. The problem is: do you have what it takes to follow the rules and trade it? Most traders don't. Trading is done by people (sometimes with the help of powerful computers), strategies you can find everywhere.

i like your first post

and i like this one more

ok give me any one of them and i will share the profits with you

but one question:

how long did you test this tow strategies ???
what is the max Continuous losing trades each strategy has ???

if the result is fine let's start work from tomorrow
  • #58
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:23pm Jan 10, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting Parmalat
I don't think anyone can come up with a strategy with a 20% hit rate for 1:1 risk/reward cause that would mean 80% hit rate for the opposite position. I see he mentions something like 1:2 risk/reward (target is twice the stop) and that would be more plausible.

But if a strategy uses 1:2 risk/reward and still gets only 20% hit rate it means it's not a good strategy, it doesn't make use of the trend which gives positive expectancy. The trend is the only edge which traders have in the forex market. In other markets it's different, for example a...
i will till you something

every trade have 2 parts

one is the signal of entry and exit in according to specific rules
tow is the risk management of this trade


let's say i don't have the first part

so i asked you to give it to me with the 3 rules that i said before

and you are right when you say that the word money management = some kind of martingales
martingales is not double the lot size when you lose

martingale is a big see

you may use martingale system that decrease risk when lose another one double it another one keep it the same another one triple it

the secret is in the continues research and thinking out side the box and combining math with statistics with a new type of martingales


i will till you another thing parmalat you see to get a high win rate strategy is not a hard thing

ok as i said before i use version 8 of my money management system

i will till you what number 1 require

it require

1- trades have target twice the stops with a pre defined stop
2- one trade at a time
3- the winning trades is more than the loosing one by 28 trades

for example lets say you give me 128 wining trades and 100 losing trades

you know what will this give

it will give 1 million from 100 dollars or let's say you will double you account 10 times every 7 wining trades (( more than the losing one ))

so in this system we need a system with a wining rate more than 50%

i have tried hundreds of systems but they all fails so i continue my reseachs and Developments until i reach version 8
  • #59
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:40pm Jan 10, 2013 8:40pm
"Bay the money" or "bay at the money" - the later is more likely since the green stuff just makes a few go wonky.
All jokes aside, no matter how powerful your strategy may be, assessing its value and selling it are two different things. You can assess it's value and base it on a rough estimate of how much a trader can earn with it, over a course of 3-5 years or opt for different metrics.
But whatever value you arrive at, needs to make sense to the buyer. In other words, if the buyer is not interested in "baying" at anything, it might be hard to push the sale through.
on a more serious note, quite a few gambled with the martingale system and with disastrous results (check out some of the other threads or google it), either way, good luck and let us know what happens.. and FWIW, if I had a profitable strategy, one that worked all the time, I will not be selling it or even talking about it, but that's just me.
  • #60
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:52pm Jan 10, 2013 8:52pm
ok let add some fun

i have an offer to every one

based on my first version of my money management system

any one give me some trades where

1- the winning one are more the loosing one by 28

2- target twice the stop with pre defined stop

3- one trade at a time

i will give him 0.5 million and all the 8 version of my system as a gift

but notice first

i know that all of you will say i could do that
but if you want me to believe you you must prove it

because i try this thing with five people and they deceive me and let me in the middle of the road with their losing trades

and for you to guarantee you rights

i say in 28 we turn 100 to 1 million
witch mean we make 10 doubles every 7 trades

so if you give me the first 7 winning that mean that the 100 become 1000 if you want to split it
i have no problem

and so on

every 7 trades if you want to split the money i have no problem

and if i didn't give you thing so don't trust me and stop giving me your wining trades


what's your opinion in this deal
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