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The Trader Behind the Trade™

  • #61
  • Jan 8, 2013 7:04pm Jan 8, 2013 7:04pm
Just realized my drawdown so far for this month is -6.66%...losing money is the devil's work.
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  • #62
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:08am Jan 9, 2013 3:08am
http://widgets.myfxbook.com/custom-w...hartbgc=FFFFFF

ok cool figured out how to use the myfxbook widget on here.
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  • #63
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:30am Jan 9, 2013 3:30am
Quoting TPOTrader
http://widgets.myfxbook.com/custom-w...hartbgc=FFFFFF

ok cool figured out how to use the myfxbook widget on here.

i see a double top and a new downtrend
  • #64
  • Jan 9, 2013 7:48am Jan 9, 2013 7:48am
Quoting TPOTrader
Been experimenting with various drawdown recovery money management. Had several scenarios.

Ultimately I decided to implement one. Ended up increasing my max DD from -31% to -36%, but gains were increased too. It's a delicate balance between reducing drawdown and increasing gains. I guess that' what the aim of the holy grail system is...

http://d2bm3ljpacyxu8.cloudfront.net...20recovery.jpg

Hypothetical backtest results:
Backtest mode: manual
Slippage: -1 pip slippage applied...
Is this a Monte Carlo simulation?
  • #65
  • Jan 9, 2013 12:51pm Jan 9, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Coolleen
i see a double top and a new downtrend
it's not double top..it's "Batman"..batman always wins
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  • #66
  • Jan 9, 2013 12:52pm Jan 9, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting PamExx
Is this a Monte Carlo simulation?
its a manual backtest as stated using the free forex tester script
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  • #67
  • Jan 9, 2013 5:55pm Jan 9, 2013 5:55pm
I think when you become a mechanical system trader, there's only limited things you can improve.

Say you have a solid strategy with quantifiable edge, the only things you can improve on is the risk management and the psychology.

Sometimes i wonder if being a mechanical traders puts your at a disadvantage because you are essentially limited in your growth as a trader. A discretionary trader can improve on various trading styles and acquire new setups/exit rules with experience.

but for a mechanical trader with fixed rules, you're just a human robot. Just following a manual and hoping you don't fuck up too much. And after a while it stops being this intellectual challenge because now it's just about playing the edge out...

I feel that way sometimes. I trade a mechanical system. Sometimes I yearn to be able to use my decision making process in the moment and improve every day.
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  • #68
  • Jan 9, 2013 9:58pm Jan 9, 2013 9:58pm
Do you remember your first trade? I do. Remember like it was yesterday.

This was back in 2006. I was sitting in the public library on a Friday afternoon.I had a few hours left before the market closes.

I was a complete noob. I had a demo account with forex.com and decided to trade usdjpy
The trade went my way and I made a profit of $7. I was so ecstatic that I called my wife about it. "just imagine what I can make with this" I said.

My most memorable live trade was when I shorted gbpusd.the trade was going nowhere. Until the bomb scare in London that sent gbpusd downwards.

Then there was the gbpjpy trade where I made my first few hundred dollars.

Aaah memory lane
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  • #69
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:39am Jan 10, 2013 5:39am
talk about being out at the low

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 435 KB


I will also start recording Oanda spreads going into my trading session. Seems like they are fucking the clients up. But i'm not going to fall for it. If this continues, I will move on.
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  • #70
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:40am Jan 10, 2013 5:40am
My trading sessions begin at 2am CST

1/10/13

Inserted Video
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  • #71
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:26am Jan 10, 2013 9:26am
This thread has captured my imagination ....please don't stop posting.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #72
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:13am Jan 10, 2013 10:13am
Quoting TPOTrader
I will also start recording Oanda spreads going into my trading session. Seems like they are fucking the clients up. But i'm not going to fall for it. If this continues, I will move on.
Huh? I don't see the problem.
  • #73
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:37am Jan 10, 2013 10:37am
Quoting PamExx
Huh? I don't see the problem.
Really? You don't see the video?. The spread may have reduced since I posted.but to have it be at +2 pips at 2am cst for long periods doesn't make sense.so I'm doing video history to capture this nonsense and decide if I should stay with them. As a day trader this is a big issue.
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  • #74
  • Jan 10, 2013 3:58pm Jan 10, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting TPOTrader
Really? You don't see the video?. The spread may have reduced since I posted.but to have it be at +2 pips at 2am cst for long periods doesn't make sense.so I'm doing video history to capture this nonsense and decide if I should stay with them. As a day trader this is a big issue.
Have you asked Oanda about it?
  • #75
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:37pm Jan 10, 2013 7:37pm
In the face of dry spells..

Period: 3 years
Total trades: 1098
Backtest mode: manual
Slippage: -1 pip slippage applied to all trades
Max drawdown: -40.68%
Longest drawdown period: 95 trading days
Avg. winning trade: 3.43%
Avg. losing trade: -3.67%
Avg. monthly loss: -10.54%
Avg. monthly gain: 16.30%
Max losing month: -19.32%
Max winning month: 44.29%
Sortino ratio: 0.581
Calmar ratio: 2.9
Total gain: 936.16%
CAGR: 118.01%
Profit factor: 1.12
Trade win%: 55.82%

If you were to trade this system what would your reaction be in the times where your equity hasn't made a new high? For me, I only experienced that for 3 weeks back in Nov 2012. My system tells me that in a 3 year period i can expect a +3 months of dry spell.

Being in that situation is tough, especially if you are trading for a living. this is why capitalization is so important. The gains you made in average month should last 2-3 months of bills.
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  • #76
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:38pm Jan 10, 2013 7:38pm
Quoting PamExx
Have you asked Oanda about it?
no not yet. I will need to compile more data on this.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #77
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:21am Jan 11, 2013 12:21am
Quoting TPOTrader
In the face of dry spells..

Period: 3 years
Total trades: 1098
Backtest mode: manual
Slippage: -1 pip slippage applied to all trades
Max drawdown: -40.68%
Longest drawdown period: 95 trading days
Avg. winning trade: 3.43%
Avg. losing trade: -3.67%
Avg. monthly loss: -10.54%
Avg. monthly gain: 16.30%
Max losing month: -19.32%
Max winning month: 44.29%
Sortino ratio: 0.581
Calmar ratio: 2.9
Total gain: 936.16%
CAGR: 118.01%
Profit factor: 1.12
Trade win%: 55.82%

If you were to trade this system what would your reaction be in the times where...

just imagine if you can survive the draw downs and the system remains profitable,how much you'll be worth in 10yrs!!
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #78
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:13am Jan 11, 2013 2:13am
1/11/13

Spread was normal this morning.

Quote
just imagine if you can survive the draw downs and the system remains profitable,how much you'll be worth in 10yrs!!

Yup. I think when people say how psychology can be an edge, i think it applies here. It would take tremendous mental fortitude to withstand long periods of drawdown.

But having a system that is backtsted thoroughly can help you stay on course.
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  • #79
  • Edited 11:58am Jan 11, 2013 2:30am | Edited 11:58am
Somewhat uneventful week-slight loss. Fully expected since I had a very high return in Dec 2012. In fact wouldn't be surprised if I"m flat the next 2-3 months before I see some equity momentum.
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  • #80
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:33am Jan 11, 2013 11:33am
Decided to have some fun with Minitab at work. Plotted control and capability charts of my backtested data.

Control chart indicates very stable process with upside OOC events.
Attached Image


system generates very consistent returns with CpK of >1.33
Attached Image
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