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  • #16,241
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:42am Jan 10, 2013 1:42am
Quoting infinitus
A break of the recent blue channel to the upper side will exhibit 3153, maybe even 3187

Attachment



the structure of the last days may unfold as ABC-flat (up), where we are now in wave B (down).

In this case I would not be surprised, when the move down ends around 3025

that blue channel was broken


next picture revised blue channel

gives room up to 3093
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.jpg Size: 185 KB
  • #16,242
  • Edited 4:52am Jan 10, 2013 4:39am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting infinitus
A break of the recent blue channel to the upper side will exhibit 3153, maybe even 3187

Attachment



the structure of the last days may unfold as ABC-flat (up), where we are now in wave B (down).

In this case I would not be surprised, when the move down ends around 3025
I agree Markus. Today I have spent most of the day waiting as analysis for possible moves has been done in last 2 days and nothing has changed. As we saw a break of 3090 is bullish and we have 3095 and 3105 was resistance. Now we need to wait for ECB conference and repo rate decision. A sustained move above 3140 will give us 3180 where move below 3060 aims for 3045 and 3022-15.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 291 KB


Analysis can also be found on my FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,243
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:24am Jan 10, 2013 6:24am
Quoting T@rantula
I agree Markus. Today I have spent most of the day waiting as analysis for possible moves has been done in last 2 days and nothing has changed. As we saw a break of 3090 is bullish and we have 3095 and 3105 was resistance. Now we need to wait for ECB conference and repo rate decision. A sustained move above 3140 will give us 3180 where move below 3060 aims for 3045 and 3022-15.

Attachment

Analysis can also be found on my FOREX BLOG.
see my proposed count attached

it is an ABC-flat

Wave C normally is most of the time 100-200% of wave A


3187 is Wave A = C (and at the same time VPOC on weekly)

3267 is wave 1.618xA = C
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #16,244
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:28am Jan 10, 2013 6:28am
Quoting infinitus
see my proposed count attached

it is an ABC-flat

Wave C normally is most of the time 100-200% of wave A


3187 is Wave A = C (and at the same time VPOC on weekly)

3267 is wave 1.618xA = C
Thanks Markus We have agreed on that, lets see what ecb will do. Be careful we may have sudden spikes.
  • #16,245
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:51am Jan 10, 2013 7:51am
Veeery big move and excellent day today. 3140-3180 has been done See the analysis.
  • #16,246
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:12am Jan 10, 2013 8:12am
Quoting T@rantula
Veeery big move and excellent day today. 3140-3180 has been done See the analysis.


hahaha, easy money was that, my friend :-)



forecasting is nice - reacting is, in the long haul, smarter :-)
  • #16,247
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:28am Jan 10, 2013 8:28am
The trend has turned bullish again. Break of 3140 confirmed that. So when u trade sometimes longing into resistance can work wonders if u r late in the game or ur a moentum trader. U can go with MOMENTUM or go with BPC pattern. In strong volatility there is usually no BPC so u need to exploit momentum.
  • #16,248
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:29am Jan 10, 2013 8:29am
Quoting infinitus
hahaha, easy money was that, my friend :-)



forecasting is nice - reacting is, in the long haul, smarter :-)
Haha i am really enjoying it my dear Markus Reacting needs to be smarter then charting and we need to apply correct MM else all is futile.
  • #16,249
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:47pm Jan 10, 2013 12:47pm
This has gone far then I expected. Markus u have hit the ball today. 3267 your count is very valid.
  • #16,250
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:57pm Jan 10, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting T@rantula
This has gone far then I expected. Markus u have hit the ball today. 3267 your count is very valid.


I am not so sure at the moment



we can play what/if:


what if, when the zigzag wave A is not a zigzag but a 1-2, 1-2 move?
  • #16,251
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:09pm Jan 10, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting infinitus
I am not so sure at the moment



we can play what/if:


what if, when the zigzag wave A is not a zigzag but a 1-2, 1-2 move?
No matter the wave and zigzag after 3180 it went to 3266 so drinks are on me. I knew it will shoot higher lets say 3140 target was 3180, may overshoot to 3215 but 3266 in a day...well those moves are rare.

I just hope traders havent shorted this blindly.
  • #16,252
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:50pm Jan 10, 2013 2:50pm
well, from an EW view we have two options:


either the move is soon done (then down) or further up LOL

a) todays move was the C-wave impulse of a flat, so price should stay below 3308

b) the proposed A wave zigzag was not a zigzag but a 1-2, 1-2, then we should see 3427 next



So bullish trigger is 3308, bearish trigger around 3075 (have to elaborate on that)




Market Profile


the VPOC's at 3190 (daily) and 3187 (weekly) have been take out as expected

next VPOC on weekly is 3337 and 3442

VPOC's at the lower side are 3012, 2988 and 2905 with more below.


Since we are only 60 or so pips away from the 3337 VPOC, chances are high that it gets taken out with 3442 to follow


Todays POC will be around 3100. Since todays market profile is a desaster (nowhere near a bell curve) chances are high, that some space between 3100 and 3266 will be filled. Most volume occured today with the candle, which brought us up to 3188. So I will expect, that we may hit this point again.




Murrey Math and Momentum


On 15min, 60min and 4h TF I have strongest indication for 3275-3306

On daily TF 3306 is 6/8 (strong resistance), but if taken out 3367 and 3428 may follow


Momentum on 1h and 4h indicates, that next move is most likely down (divergences on 15, 60 and 4h); daily momentum in neutral zone


Murrey Math indicates that risk is now towards 3306 whereas chance is towards at least 3214-3184


My statistical model advises me to short on 15min, 60min and 4h TF, even so generated a sell on weekly TF, because 3306 is +1/8 and we are nearby.


If weekly plays out to the lower side right now, target would be 2939, but stronger 2817 and 2695





Trading advise:


go long above 3308

or


go short below 3267 with SL shortly above 3308 - in this case TP's are 3245, 3214 and 3184; after that situation has to be assessed anew
  • #16,253
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:59am Jan 11, 2013 6:59am
Well yesterday I presumed we were gonna have a slow day, and that is happening now. Very slow VERY rangey and there is NO RETRACEMENT. We have a CONSOLIDATION- i have marked it on the chart and the only strategy here is to trade a BREAKOUT. Breakout of DAILY highs or LOWS.

The price is BULLISH but we dont have a trend PATTERN ( Higher Highs Higher Lows) even on m5.

So it is the first breakout of DH or DL or the first retracement of ACTUAL breakout on m1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 241 KB


First target should be 3300 in case of upper breakout then 3320. Lower breakout aims for 3220 then 3195.

You can also read the analysis on my FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,254
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:13am Jan 11, 2013 7:13am
Quoting infinitus
well, from an EW view we have two options:


either the move is soon done (then down) or further up LOL
And we havent had any retracement. So either it will be caused by news reaction or profit taking.
  • #16,255
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:25am Jan 11, 2013 7:25am
Quoting t@rantula
well yesterday i presumed we were gonna have a slow day, and that is happening now. Very slow very rangey and there is no retracement. We have a consolidation- i have marked it on the chart and the only strategy here is to trade a breakout. Breakout of daily highs or lows.

The price is bullish but we dont have a trend pattern ( higher highs higher lows) even on m5.

So it is the first breakout of dh or dl or the first retracement of actual breakout on m1.

Attachment

first target should be 3300 in case of upper breakout then...
DONE- 3320 reached. Breakout strategy worked like a charm! +45 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trd.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #16,256
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:30am Jan 11, 2013 7:30am
I reckon 3350 should be reached.
  • #16,257
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:34am Jan 11, 2013 7:34am
Quoting T@rantula
I reckon 3350 should be reached.
Here we are
  • #16,258
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:52am Jan 11, 2013 7:52am
A lot of stops have been collected, shorts also need to cover, thus we are having impulse buying and shallow retracements. 3350 has been reached in minutes. I dont neglect that EURUSD is aiming 3385- 27th of March.2012 HIGH.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 243 KB
  • #16,259
  • Jan 11, 2013 8:43am Jan 11, 2013 8:43am
So guys, let me clear it one more time. Dont short it blindly. When there is a TREND ( HH HL or LH LL) we can try to COUNTER THE TREND by placing trades in OPPOSITE DIRECTION. WHEN there is no TREND ( like today and yesterday). Price is BULLISH but we dont have TREND PATTERNS. its excellent to LONG into resistance as BREAKOUT starts to happen. Thats why I posted my trade setup, longing into 3284 breakout.

Breakout trades are optimally done in periods of consolidation and low ATR and on very shallow retracements.
  • #16,260
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:11am Jan 11, 2013 9:11am
Quoting T@rantula
So guys, let me clear it one more time. Dont short it blindly. When there is a TREND ( HH HL or LH LL) we can try to COUNTER THE TREND by placing trades in OPPOSITE DIRECTION. WHEN there is no TREND ( like today and yesterday). Price is BULLISH but we dont have TREND PATTERNS. its excellent to LONG into resistance as BREAKOUT starts to happen. Thats why I posted my trade setup, longing into 3284 breakout.

Breakout trades are optimally done in periods of consolidation and low ATR and on very shallow retracements.
Good job Mr. T. :-)


Now it gets interesting: will 3108 hold the move down? If yes, chances are high for a late ralley towards the super resistance around 3420-3440
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