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  • #16,221
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:20am Jan 8, 2013 5:20am
Thank you Markus, hope you are fine & all the best in 2013..

In-order to avoid being an cannon fodder I have no choice but follow the paths of the Elephants (non-commercials, or Large speculators) for they are in it for the money only & have the ammo to move the market as a group.. Whereas the Commercial hedgehogs have no choice but to buy the underlying asset at market in-order to protect themselves against future price movements..

Anyways, the truth is reflected in our charts..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357620450


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357634656



Quoting infinitus
Hi CDN,

hope you had a good start into 2013 as well :-)



Regarding the smart-money:


the non-commercials are not the "right" smart money, because they are speculators like you and me (only with more many in their bags - unfortunately :-) )


The real smart money are the Commercials and they are now net-short


"Anticipation is the mother of all FX Evil..
He who keep anticipating bottoms, gets piece on Earth..
He who keep anticipating tops, gets peace in Heaven.." Fx_ConfusCius
  • #16,222
  • Edited 6:12am Jan 8, 2013 5:34am | Edited 6:12am
Hey guys, we are at key resistance area 3130. I can say 3130-55 should be the area where we should go down as the major trend is bearish. We need to watch for reversal patterns there and enter short. Close below 3105 would be great and thus a possible signal for reversal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 158 KB


You can also view this analysis on my FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,223
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:36am Jan 8, 2013 5:36am
Quoting cdndollar
Thank you Markus, hope you are fine & all the best in 2013..

In-order to avoid being an cannon fodder I have no choice but follow the paths of the Elephants (non-commercials, or Large speculators) for they are in it for the money only & have the ammo to move the market as a group.. Whereas the Commercial hedgehogs have no choice but to buy the underlying asset at market in-order to protect themselves against future price movements..

Anyways, the truth is reflected in our charts..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357620450


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357634656





[i]"Anticipation...


Yeah, but keep asking: what happened in the past, especially in January 2011 when the non-commercials were net long..........


The non-commercials (large specs) are NOT the true movers - the true movers are the commercials in the end
  • #16,224
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:06am Jan 8, 2013 6:06am
If the price gets above 3155 and closes that would be trend change, so we would not be bearish anymore. We need to watch for reversal patterns for short entries and 3130-55 is ideal for that.
  • #16,225
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:13am Jan 8, 2013 6:13am
EURX.. 4 hr .. looks Bullish 2 me?????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurox.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #16,226
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:21am Jan 8, 2013 6:21am
Quoting T@rantula
Hey guys, we are at key resistance area 3130. I can say 3130-55 should be the area where we should go down as the major trend is bearish. We need to watch for reversal patterns there and enter short. Close below 3105 would be great and thus a possible signal for reversal.

Attachment

You can also view this analysis on my FOREX BLOG.
Nice T,

I was eyeing 3162, 52 and 40 but I think the high is already in place for today. I have strong levels here at 3140
  • #16,227
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:38am Jan 8, 2013 6:38am
Quoting danc
EURX.. 4 hr .. looks Bullish 2 me?????
Quoting jaylovin
Nice T,

I was eyeing 3162, 52 and 40 but I think the high is already in place for today. I have strong levels here at 3140
It has some sort of a bullish look, but remember there have been many rejections off 3130. I am not saying it cant go higher, it just it looks like best r:r ratio to short it around 3130-55 and also it WOULD confirm bearish trend else we will move to BULLISH territory so we will need to chart it again.
  • #16,228
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:49am Jan 8, 2013 6:49am
Quoting infinitus
Yeah, but keep asking: what happened in the past, especially in January 2011 when the non-commercials were net long..........


The non-commercials (large specs) are NOT the true movers - the true movers are the commercials in the end
?

Here you go..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130108-2 years.png Size: 105 KB
  • #16,229
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:57am Jan 8, 2013 6:57am
Here we are....3130-3120> 3095 at the moment...Something is happening. For further continuation we need to break 3095 where 3075 is our next stop.
  • #16,230
  • Jan 8, 2013 7:14am Jan 8, 2013 7:14am
Quoting T@rantula
Hey guys, we are at key resistance area 3130. I can say 3130-55 should be the area where we should go down as the major trend is bearish. We need to watch for reversal patterns there and enter short. Close below 3105 would be great and thus a possible signal for reversal.
.

Quoting T@rantula
Here we are....3130-3120> 3095 at the moment...Something is happening. For further continuation we need to break 3095 where 3075 is our next stop.
3082 has been reached, the biggest INTERIM confluence to the downside is 3060. Still as we saw it 3105 break was crucial for this momentum.
  • #16,231
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:06am Jan 8, 2013 8:06am
3075 reached as planned 3069 is the low. Everything goes as planned
  • #16,232
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:27am Jan 8, 2013 8:27am
My calculations showed 3075-3060 TARGET. Price went to 3068 where it was bought. So next thing technically should be 3105 retest.
  • #16,233
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:00am Jan 8, 2013 9:00am
Was planning to short around 3105 again but the price went to 3095 before 3080 again... Lets see if we will have a break of 3065 later. Interim resistance is 3095 followed by 3105 ofcourse.
  • #16,234
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:48am Jan 8, 2013 9:48am
Quoting T@rantula
3082 has been reached, the biggest INTERIM confluence to the downside is 3060. Still as we saw it 3105 break was crucial for this momentum.
3060 has been reached so my target has been completed. I will watch for daily close.

For EX YU traders Analysis has also been done on this FOREX BLOG.
  • #16,235
  • Jan 9, 2013 6:44am Jan 9, 2013 6:44am
After reaching 3060 price has been in a range, it has retested 3095 and continued to move down. Price is sitting at 3050 at the time of writing and I can see 2 possibilities here. We are getting close to horizontal level of support and mid term trendline dating from 7th of DEC. 2012. So we need to see whether the price will jump off the CONFLUENCED horizontal level and trendline or move down and RETEST it. SO basically there is a confluence at 3022-3016 and we need to see the reaction. In the first case we can put some long orders targeting for 3050 another retest or in latter case we need to exploit BPC pattern ( breakout pullback continuation) and put a sell order in targeting 2975 with scaling out around 2995.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 286 KB


You can read this analysis on my FOREX BLOG also.
  • #16,236
  • Jan 9, 2013 8:17am Jan 9, 2013 8:17am
Quoting T@rantula

Attachment

You can read this analysis on my FOREX BLOG also.
Hi T@rantula,
Thanks for posting your analyses,
The link FOREX BLOG is not in english:
Analiza EURUSD 09.01.2013


when i try to change to english or other they lead me to a very differnt page, not to your analyses.
Any idee how to manage that?

MJurban
  • #16,237
  • Jan 9, 2013 8:29am Jan 9, 2013 8:29am
Quoting MJurban
Hi T@rantula,
Thanks for posting your analyses,
The link FOREX BLOG is not in english:
Analiza EURUSD 09.01.2013


when i try to change to english or other they lead me to a very differnt page, not to your analyses.
Any idee how to manage that?

MJurban
Hey MJ,

Its in Serbian but its understandable for all EX Yugoslavian traders. So basically its the blog for EX YU traders and its basically the same analysis as here. So you dont need to translate that, as it is the same
  • #16,238
  • Jan 9, 2013 9:02am Jan 9, 2013 9:02am
Hi T. Great work on analysis. 3093 was my top go e or take a few pips. Now IMO 2969 should not break by more than a few pips today otherwise this thing will become more a bigger bear tone. Back to work over and out
  • #16,239
  • Jan 9, 2013 9:39am Jan 9, 2013 9:39am
Quoting jaylovin
Hi T. Great work on analysis. 3093 was my top go e or take a few pips. Now IMO 2969 should not break by more than a few pips today otherwise this thing will become more a bigger bear tone. Back to work over and out
Yes today I dont see it much lower. 3015 could be it, maybe BUT just maybe 2995, still market is waiting that is why we dont have big moves atm. Market is waiting for ECB tomorrow.
  • #16,240
  • Jan 9, 2013 11:08pm Jan 9, 2013 11:08pm
A break of the recent blue channel to the upper side will exhibit 3153, maybe even 3187

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.jpg Size: 188 KB




the structure of the last days may unfold as ABC-flat (up), where we are now in wave B (down).

In this case I would not be surprised, when the move down ends around 3025
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