vsa with Malcolm

Actual Volume Spread Analysis. And by that I mean, I am looking at Volume.

I am on the Bearish Side now.

Take a look at this 1440 minute chart.

Of course, I use 12 minute and 3 minute to trade, so there may well be opportunites to get long.........

As for the bigger picture, Note the double arrow. This points to what was the second highest volume bar on the chart until friday. This bar closed off its low on Ultra High Volume. The next bar was down but it was down on volume less than the previous two intervals. This tells me that there must have been some buying on the first interval.

If this bar was bullish, then we would expect that price would be able to close above the high of this interval. Notice that price trades above but never closes above it. In fact we had two clear signs of weakness appear as price traded above the high only to close well below it. Then we had a wide spread down bar on Ultra High Volume that closed well below the low of this bar. Said down bar that closed on its lows, in fact takes out the low of a number of bars. This is bearish.

Take a look at the highest volume bar that can be seen on the chart. Note the price action the very first time price gets above its high.

Now, If one only trades the 1440 minute chart, one does need to wait for the chart mode to change. And the prefered narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two intervals (ND). A wide spread up bar that closes well off its lows would be good too (Up Thrust).

The volume on the last interval is Ultra High. This may well be a failed Test.

Thank you.. all the best in the new year..

_____________________________

Thank you for sharing your VSA knowledge.. I had made a few notations in your chart based on limited VSA that I had learn from you.. hope you don't mind, I'll delete it if you do..

Could you share your 1440 minute chart bearish continuation scenario for an VSA sell setup above 1.31? or you would only look for continuation below 1.30 with VSA setup?

Thank you.. all the best in the new year..

First let me say that I can certainly be wrong. This business is not about being right or wrong. It's about making money.

I enjoyed your analysis in the Euro thread....that's what makes a market.

UPDATE:

I have attached a chart that was taken prior to the closing of the last interval. Therefore things could change by the time the interval closes.

As we can see we have an up interval on volume less than the previous two intervals. This interval is currently at or near the high and the range is greater than the previous. This interval looks like No Buying Pressure.

We note that at this time the chart mode has changed to down.

I would like to see another up interval also on volume less than the previous two but this time with a narrowing range. This would be No Demand.

An up interval on increasing volume and a narrowing range would be a squat and would signal the Smart Money is capping prices.

Or we could see an up interval on increasing volume that closes on or near its low with an increasing range. This would be an Up Thrust.

Close Senarios:

As long as price closes below the low of the previous marked interval (now marked as trigger line), I am predisposed to be bearish.

If price closes above this level, I would no longer be bearish and only slightly, or semi, bullish.

If price was to close above the high of this interval as previously mentioned, I would then become bullish again.

Thank you for the update..
From what I had learn from you, VSA is a useful tool for trading the smaller time frames, and to confirm trend continuation & potential turns on the higher time frames..

Near term, this is what I see with my "vsa in COT" Trail of the Smart Money analysis:
Daily & H4 "GO" Buy the Dips for retest of 1.33+ with potential pop up to 1.35..

All this buy orders greedy boy
You pay for cot report or there's free site offer it.

Love you work and sense of the market moves

Thanks for sharing

Thank you again Sir..
Just taking advantage of good risk-adjusted buying opportunities..

the COT reports are available at CFTC or Here

Something is brewing with USDJPY, watch for high volume bars closing off their highs for signs of a temp top.
Still extremely bullish however nothing goes up in a straight line.


On a side note,
Is there anybody good with mt4 script that could possibly do me a small favor with something I'd like to tackle give me a pm.

hi, thx for sharing i just saw this topic, i think i got a lot to read. anyway thx again

(Shameless copy and paste from the VSA Forum)

Wow, that was a pretty amazing move yesterday wasn't it?!

It has been quiet here this week so thought I'd offer up some charts and thoughts on EU for the week and the two trades i've taken.

We'll have a look at the two charts together, the HLC chart and of course the PnF chart. The green zones on the PnF chart are the high volume zones carried over from the 1hr HLC bar chart and aren't indicative of the cumulative high volume spikes that you can see on the PnF chart itself. That's a post for another day and something else i'm looking into at the moment.

A. The upper marked volume zone on the PnF chart is from the 3rd Jan and was selling when it printed on the HLC chart. The subsequent bars didn't manage to break the 50% and we continued pushing down. In fact, the PnF chart printed a small No Demand three box reversal, this reversal isn't marked but is visible as the column of X after where the zone starts on the PnF chart.

Looking at the PnF chart now. After just missing the downside target of 2970 before NFP last Friday we pushed up on high volume at A and just pushed through the 50%.

B. This is the reaction to the push up at A, we retrace over half of the A column on good volume. There were no signs of no supply or no selling pressure. Notice how the 50% of that 6th Dec zone stopped the down move. Just below this we now have the NFP zone with the high at 1.3044

C. This was my first trade of the week, after B pushed down and out of the 3rd Jan zone we printed a ND three box reversal. I set an order on the low of this and was taken in as D pushed down. At this point in time i'd forgotten that the NFP zone was right below us. Ideally I wouldn't have taken this trade with that in mind. If that zone hadn't been below I think it would have been a nice area to short. Good set up in the wrong place. Entry was 1.3050 with a stop at 1.3100 above the ND.

D. D pushed down on volume less than the previous few bars and stopped right on the high of the NFP zone, at this stage I'd remembered the NFP zone was there so I thought we might be seeing signs of No selling pressure. In my mind, zones and areas are made to be broken so I decided to keep the trade running.

E. E pushed up as the reaction from the top of the NFP zone, but this was on lower volume again so I took this as NBP and decided to keep the trade open.

F. Another attempt at breaking through the NFP zone. Once we had reversed three boxes from the high of E this allowed me to tighten my stop a little to 1.3090. We reversed a further box which was the same level as the low of D. NFP zone was being respected again and it was at this stage I should've bailed on my short trade.

G. I didn't bail and with the help of EU news we pushed up and away from the NFP zone and I was stopped at 1.3090 for a 40 pip loss on my short trade. I didn't have time to even think about this as the box that stopped me out at 1.3090 actually formed one of my favourite signals A staggered triple top with the middle column one box lower than the outer two. You can see it highlighted in the green shaded area with red outline (poor colour choices, sorry!) You can see a few others dotted around the PnF chart, with two near the high.

I went long at 1.3100 and as we all know, the market shot up. It's one of the longest PnF columns i've seen in ages. I trailed my stop at 40 pips as we climbed. 40pips = Reversal amount (three boxes / 30pips) + breathing space.

Technically speaking I should still be in the trade but A. we hit the upside target at 1.3240, B. there are three tops to the left and C. whilst it had little regard for any of the upper zones I decided to set my target a couple of pips above the highest zone at 1.3276 which was hit this morning just before I got up.

You can see a small three box reversal on the chart at the right edge. As I type this the market is back up at the high of this zone around 1.3275. If we hit 1.3280 this will mean another reversal and new column of X. Which will mean the three box reversal of Os is a No Supply. So I might try a sneaky long for 10 / 20 pips.

A quick look at the HLC chart now, I've marked all the zones that i've talked about and marked a few areas in yellow boxes showing the movement between these zones. There are many more hits as you can see but I marked the important ones. The reactions to the NFP zones etc. The price action from 2 to 3 indicates the ND at C from which I took my first trade, the short. This is what I love about PnF, it cuts out a lot of the noise in the market.

Phew, long post.

Higher quality screenshots - https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27345407/11...3_EU1hrPnF.jpg & https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27345407/11...3_EU1hrHLC.jpg

didn't get my order in quick enough, got the order in once price was above my buy in but it didn't come back to pick me up.

MIA CULPA

Update: My fault. I was wrong.

It looked to me as if the market was in a down trend and price would continue its down move. That is what I posted here. The thread moves too fast for me to go back and quote the post. But most saw it and know.

Again, I admit I was wrong.

However, I do need to make one very important point. There never was an ENTRY signal given to get short.

I said we would be looking for a narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two intervals (No Demand). Or a narrow range up bar on increasing volume closing well of its lows (squat).

I also said the more aggressive could look for this entry on the 720 minute rather than the 1440 minute chart.

I have attached a 720 minute chart.

Notice that there are no Up bars with a narrow range on either increasing volume or volume less than the previous two.

The arrow points to a narrow range up bar that closes well of its low with volume that is decreasing. This volume is not less than the previous two and it is greater than average. I except that a very aggressive trader may have "jumped" the gun here. Yet this is not what I said to be on the look out for. And more importantly, it is not a valid entry signal per VSA.

Despite the fact that VSA was clearly signaling the market was not weak (No Supplies followed by Demand Swamping Supply), and that no short entry signal was ever given, I own up to the fact that I was wrong.

P.S. I have not read any post from FF in the last few days, so if there was a direct question or comment you can pm me or ask/make it again.

EU was a difficult read this week, IMO cable was much easier.

I cant say that I have ever taken a trade off of a 12h chart, I like finding climatic action on 12h and zoom in on 4h to trade.

Here is just a bit of after the fact analysis. 12h chart the tipping point for me is in this bar on the 7th. The volume on this bar is average, that tells me that no significant selling took place on that up move and the volume is not low either, saying that there was interest.

There's no shame in being wrong.. You share your views & updates for trade discussion, right or wrong it doesn't matter.. All that matters is that you was kind enough to share & what you had said earlier "This business is not about being right or wrong. It's about making money"..

Hi all, I'm a VSA trader for more than a year now, and trade live for almost an year, fortunately with good results . I've also accompanied this thread occasionally to learn more.

I'm looking for people who know MQL4 (MT4's language) that want to make an EA in MT4 to exit positions automatically, based on VSA. It'll only be an exit EA, not entrance. This is because for entrance you need to look at the background and other things, as for exit you only need to look at the current action. So programming an EA to enter is much much harder, while making an EA to exit automatically is doable. The point of it is to make a trade manually and then you can leave the EA managing the position for you, so you don't have to worry about it anymore.
I have a lot of experience in making EAs and indicators, and I know what bars I have to look for. I'm looking for partner(s) just so I finish it faster, and we'll both benefit. If anyone's interested PM me or reply here

Hi Jasus,

Please feel free to share your entry and exit rules so we can all learn from you.

Sure, but you being an experienced trader I think I won't teach you anything

For exits, I use a hull moving average of period 15 like malcom did. For longs, if there is minor supply (bars showing supply but the volume isn't that high, like wide spread close in the middle and high volume) and/or no demand, I wait for the hull to turn to exit. If there is major supply in any higher TF (top reversal, narrow spread + high volume on new highs, buying climax, heavy supply entering the market bar, failed test, multiple bars showing supply, etc), up to H1, I exit immediately. If there is major supply in the TF I'm trading in, I wait for the hull to turn to close, or close 1/2 of the position immediately and wait for the hull to turn to close the other half, depending on the supply I'm seeing.
If the prices are approaching an important resistance I usually close 1/2 of the position and wait for the hull to turn to close the other half.

As for entry I trade like Tom Williams. I use channels, support/resistances and don't trade with a R:R worse than 1 (i.e. don't trade below important resistances) and don't trade before important news. I also take special attention to see if there is a cause for the movement, as Tom Williams calls it, and which is a bit more than just seeing the background. This is to see if the floating supply is in the hands of the SM.

All this applies to short position in reverse

The chart below shows what I was looking at on Wednesday when I made the call to buy dips for the week. Call was made here, at Steve & Liam's place (soon to be renamed the Jason Memorial Repository of Knowledge ) with a two-hour chart:

http://forum.vsawiki.com/viewtopic.p...tart=140#p6834

But this post isn't about my oh-so amazing longs for the week . . . It's about this thread. I've spent the last two months or so, reading and re-reading this thread. There's some REALLY amazing posts in here! To make it easier, I've put a lot of people on the ignore list (including myself . . . I posted some stupid sheet in here back in 2011 that shows I didn't understand VSA for jack!)

So . . . it was reading this thread that made it possible for me to see the accumulation happening lately, and take the long.

This post is a big thank you to Intel, Hidden Gap, the earnest seekers and especially Malc & Dr G. !!!

Thanks Marcus ..... that is if i am not on our ignore list lol .... I am thinking eu gives a nice run up this year

Did someone say something?