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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,581
  • Dec 26, 2012 5:43pm Dec 26, 2012 5:43pm
AUDUSD Hourly...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.12.26.AU.Hourly.EW.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #5,582
  • Edited 6:58pm Dec 26, 2012 6:40pm | Edited 6:58pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
I'm not working right now but I'd check your Wave a of Wave iii... just look at the first leg down and you'll see what looks to be a 3-wave whip and then consider a minimum 176.4% projection...
I do see what you are saying...hmmm...

I have attached my chart showing my lesser degree Wave iii and how I came up with the count.

Blue Wave i and Wave ii is a 90.4% retracement and projects just past 176.4 blue Wave iii
Blue Wave iv is a 11.7% retracement, then Wave ii to Wave iv projects 76.4 for Wave v.

Lesser degree Wave ii:
Pink Wave -i and Wave -ii is a 60.1% retracement and projects to 176.4 Wave -iii
Pink Wave -iv is a 37.7% retracement, then Wave -ii to Wave -iv project to 66.7 Wave -v (which is also the end of Wave iii)

Any chance to learn from the Master is appreciated!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW AUDUSD,M30.pdf   54 KB | 411 downloads
  • #5,583
  • Dec 27, 2012 11:16am Dec 27, 2012 11:16am
Quoting stryker251
Here are my thoughts on EURUSD using Harmonic Elliott Wave. I'm a noob with it, so any comments are welcome.
I may be off base, but the only way I can reconcile this Wave b is a triple three. Does anyone else have anything different?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW EURUSD,M30.pdf   41 KB | 427 downloads
  • #5,584
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:41am Jan 1, 2013 5:41am
Hey, Stryker251,
I have counted this B wave. Kindly have a look and see how do you think about it? It appears to me B wave completed in the form of Zigzag,I am quite new to EWC and waiting eagerly about your comments. Further to that, How are seeing and labelling the present price action after complition of B wave.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-01-01_2030.png Size: 32 KB
  • #5,585
  • Jan 1, 2013 1:58pm Jan 1, 2013 1:58pm
When trying to keep it very simple, my analysis shows that we could be in a Elliott ABCDE triangle.
All subwaves are also 3 waves and, although the triangle is not perfectly symmetric, it looks quite probable.

If this is correct, we should see a strong thrust upwards with a target of approximately 1,345.

A break above the upper triangle line, currently at 1,327 would confirm, the breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD EWcount Dec2012.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #5,586
  • Jan 1, 2013 2:55pm Jan 1, 2013 2:55pm
Hi CE,
I agree that it is a corrective pattern.
If you Google Robert Balan,
you can download his pdf book [free].
It contains the exact pattern to match the current EU correction.
Zigzag_x_Triangle.
He calls it a complex corrective pattern [page 19].
Cheers,
U2
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #5,587
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:40pm Jan 1, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting Uturn2
Hi CE,
I agree that it is a corrective pattern.
If you Google Robert Balan,
you can download his pdf book [free].
It contains the exact pattern to match the current EU correction.
Zigzag_x_Triangle.
He calls it a complex corrective pattern [page 19].
Cheers,
U2

thank you very much.
This is definitely a valid pattern, and both will likely lead to the same result: At least one more rally higher.

But any weakness below 1,315 would likely invalidate those two patterns and would be bearish.
  • #5,588
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:48pm Jan 1, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting Uturn2
Hi CE,
I agree that it is a corrective pattern.
If you Google Robert Balan,
you can download his pdf book [free].
It contains the exact pattern to match the current EU correction.
Zigzag_x_Triangle.
He calls it a complex corrective pattern [page 19].
Cheers,
U2

I fortunately have a few EW books at home, because the download links from Rober Balan do not work anymore. I just tried a couple of times and always got an error message.
  • #5,589
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:18am Jan 2, 2013 4:18am
Quoting ChartExpert
I fortunately have a few EW books at home, because the download links from Rober Balan do not work anymore. I just tried a couple of times and always got an error message.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post6332821

Hi CE,
If you would like it,
I uploaded it on the above thread.
Cheers,
U2
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #5,590
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:22am Jan 2, 2013 4:22am
Good count it seem , chart expert
But now issue is, uptill the 4 hour candle close clearly above that trend line, we can`t realy buy it safely. what do you say?
  • #5,591
  • Jan 2, 2013 1:13pm Jan 2, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Coolman138
Good count it seem , chart expert
But now issue is, uptill the 4 hour candle close clearly above that trend line, we can`t realy buy it safely. what do you say?
Typically, those corrective patterns such as triangles or flats have a probability for a breakout to the upside of 60-65%. Today, it seems that we indeed got a breakout but then an intraday reversal (bearish hammer).

Net, I see two options (and there may be more...).

1) We indeed had a triangle (or flat) and the thrust higher was a truncated fifth wave which marks the end of the 6 months uptrend since the July 2012 low of 1,204. This would mean strong declines as long as today's high would not be exceeded.


2) We are still in a W-X-Y flat correction and prices will reverse up again. (second chart)


I am not trading this pair right now, but if I had to I would short with a stop above today's high with a tiny position first.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD EWcount 201301024h a.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD EWcount 201301024h b.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #5,592
  • Edited Jan 3, 2013 7:37am Jan 2, 2013 8:58pm | Edited Jan 3, 2013 7:37am
Quoting Coolman138
Hey, Stryker251,
I have counted this B wave. Kindly have a look and see how do you think about it? It appears to me B wave completed in the form of Zigzag,I am quite new to EWC and waiting eagerly about your comments. Further to that, How are seeing and labelling the present price action after complition of B wave.
I am not an expert by any means; however, I would suggest that you look at your first Wave 1 to ensure that it is a five (if you are using traditional EW), because it looks like a three to me on the lower time frame. A three would change that to a Wave A instead of a Wave 1 and therefore change your overall count. While your count may have gotten you to the same point this time, if you do not examine the structure, you will find counting on one degree to have spotty accuracy.

I have the following count (attached) as a Triple Three. Based on the last flat I reorganized my count. I like the 1.3113 to 1.3095 area for support.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW EURUSD,M30.pdf   41 KB | 390 downloads
  • #5,593
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:55am Jan 4, 2013 6:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott wave.gif Size: 12 KB


please advice
  • #5,594
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:22pm Jan 4, 2013 12:22pm
Here is my idea for EURUSD from the daily chart. I have labeled it in Harmonic Elliott Waves. I am transitioning from standard Elliott Wave to this style (I like it a lot), so comments are welcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW EURUSD,Daily.pdf   35 KB | 432 downloads
  • #5,595
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:52am Jan 5, 2013 2:52am
Quoting stryker251
Here is my idea for EURUSD from the daily chart. I have labeled it in Harmonic Elliott Waves. I am transitioning from standard Elliott Wave to this style (I like it a lot), so comments are welcome.
This is an interesting option.

However, I am not sure how valid it is because wave (2) is way out of proportion in price and time vs. wave (4).

Here is an alternative count based on weekly charts:

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/uploa...184819.png?667
  • #5,596
  • Edited Jan 8, 2013 4:59am Jan 7, 2013 8:38pm | Edited Jan 8, 2013 4:59am
Quoting ChartExpert
This is an interesting option.

However, I am not sure how valid it is because wave (2) is way out of proportion in price and time vs. wave (4).

Here is an alternative count based on weekly charts:

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/uploa...184819.png?667
On a lesser degree / lower time frame I think you will find your Wave 1 down (after your Wave (X)) is not a five wave impluse but a three wave.
  • #5,597
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:22pm Jan 7, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting stryker251
Here is my idea for EURUSD from the daily chart. I have labeled it in Harmonic Elliott Waves. I am transitioning from standard Elliott Wave to this style (I like it a lot), so comments are welcome.
I've closed this buy with +80 pips as shown on my last post above, and I will be looking for a move down next. If she could just move up a little bit more it would be perfect. Attached is my 1H chart labeled again in Harmonic Elliott Wave style.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW EURUSD,H1.pdf   41 KB | 435 downloads
  • #5,598
  • Jan 8, 2013 1:40am Jan 8, 2013 1:40am
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR SILVER

INTRADAY CHART
http://i1079.photobucket.com/albums/...psb839c1ab.jpg

8th January:
Last week's deeper correction to 31.49 has forced a slight change to the bearish structure. Certainly both daily & intraday momentum remains bearish. Thus we should now see Wave c / iii develop to reach the 298.4% projection at 28.67 (98.4% in Wave c). This should generate a deep 45-50% retracement in Wave iv and then the Wave v can target the 298.4% projection in Wave [iii] at 28.16. With Wave [ii] being 66.7% we can expect between 23.6%-33.3% retracement in Wave [iv] and then for the Wave [v] to extend to the 161.8% - 194.4% projection in Wave (c) at 27.51 and probably 26.13...

Only a break above 31.49 will suggest a more complex structure and potential for a deeper move higher.

RATIO TABLE:
http://i1079.photobucket.com/albums/...psb8f57c92.jpg

Good trading
Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,599
  • Edited 10:02am Jan 9, 2013 8:34am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting stryker251
I've closed this buy with +80 pips as shown on my last post above, and I will be looking for a move down next. If she could just move up a little bit more it would be perfect. Attached is my 1H chart labeled again in Harmonic Elliott Wave style.
I have been thinking that the move up originally labeled abc is a larger Wave A, because the move down does not appear impulsive so far. I'll be watching the 1.3030 area for support to see if we get a move up. A break of the low will change my bias.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HEW EURUSD,M30.pdf   34 KB | 433 downloads
  • #5,600
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:38pm Jan 9, 2013 10:38pm
TECHNICAL INDICATORS 10TH JANUARY 2013

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLUS SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FROM YESTERDAY'S PRICE ACTION

Good trading
Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
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