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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #1,141
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:27pm Jan 7, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Infest
Nice trade... eventually it had to turn 50-100 pips... we also had no US related news today, so it was enough time to retrace...

Couldnt have gone another 200pips without any reason
I'll be honest and say I took a few annoying stop outs on the way down getting into this position. I need to stop doing this since when price does turn, it will always give you a chance to get in with a nice low risk retrace entry.

Notice after the initial engulf when price turned and a fresh H4 level formed and then price retested it before moving onwards. I see this time and time again and these are the lowest risk trades you get (without getting burned trying to picking tops or bottoms on higher timeframes!).
  • #1,142
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:34pm Jan 7, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting C-12
I'll be honest and say I took a few annoying stop outs on the way down getting into this position. I need to stop doing this since when price does turn, it will always give you a chance to get in with a nice low risk retrace entry.

Notice after the initial engulf when price turned and a fresh H4 level formed and then price retested it before moving onwards. I see this time and time again and these are the lowest risk trades you get (without getting burned trying to picking tops or bottoms on higher timeframes!).
I did the same, first at 6095, then 6060 (with first signs) and then my last shot at 6030 with real demand (had stop of all three below 6000)...

And you said it there... I always enter during the fall and I want to be "first", but actually I make it worse. So i averaged in which is not a good thing when no PA was there. Best to wait for this engulf which was tested today, easy entry and very low risk.
  • #1,143
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:53pm Jan 7, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting Infest
So i averaged in which is not a good thing when no PA was there. Best to wait for this engulf which was tested today, easy entry and very low risk.
I think averaging in is fine if using very small position. Trying to build a swing with a scalp sized position is account suicide. I'm going to stop doing this, since it's those are the trades that are hurting my account.

There's no reason to try and pick the exact bottom anyway. I agree, best to wait for the engulf and fresh level to pull back into.
  • #1,144
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:57pm Jan 7, 2013 4:57pm
Not at home so no recent charts but here's the perfect scenario from USDCAD in December..

An engulf leaving a freshly formed level and a retest.

I need to print this out and stick on the wall.
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  • #1,145
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:01pm Jan 7, 2013 5:01pm
I have several of these type charts hanging on my wall..Great way to keep the focus

TSD
  • #1,146
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:25pm Jan 7, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting C-12
Wow Awesome to see a pro making a killing scalping on the very low time frames. I was wondering what your trading style was.

Also I know you openly trade with Pepperstone. Excellent broker would be perfect if they opened up a Euro server. I just found the response times were slightly higher than Armada, but that makes sense since they are based in Oz.
I have all sorts of styles, most discretionary based on recent momentum. heck.. sometimes I'll just look at the EURUSD and ask myself "what does price have to do to screw over the most people possible?" and I bet that it's going to happen. That works out more often than I'd care to admit. lol.. (things like, running obvious stop levels, or pressing a S/R level before running another way. Or Pretending to breakout and fading the move. etc.. Though, again, it takes a lot of screen time to be able to identify these kinds of setups and new traders will just get slaughtered doing it. So I'm not suggesting anyone trade like this. It just amuses me that the style works since it relies on others being shaken out of what they thought were clean trades.)

.. about brokers: Pepper's live server is in NYC, which is about half a day's drive away from me, so speed has never been an issue. However, their demo server is in Cali, so from Europe that makes it seem even worse latency wise. A buddy of mine trades with Pepper live from the UK, and his execution times aren't bad at all (within 300ms,) on the live server.

In any case, if you are more local to another broke and they are snappy, cool.. no worries there. Glad they suit your needs.
FXGears.com
  • #1,147
  • Jan 7, 2013 6:14pm Jan 7, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
I have all sorts of styles, most discretionary based on recent momentum. heck.. sometimes I'll just look at the EURUSD and ask myself "what does price have to do to screw over the most people possible?" and I bet that it's going to happen. That works out more often than I'd care to admit. lol.. (things like, running obvious stop levels, or pressing a S/R level before running another way. Or Pretending to breakout and fading the move. etc.. Though, again, it takes a lot of screen time to be able to identify these kinds of setups and new traders...
Oh yeah, I'm well aware of those stitch ups and liquidity runs. False breakouts, especially trend lines were the biggest account killer. Confluence is another one. The more obvious a trade is, the more the opportunity for a stitch up. If a fib lines up with a major trend line with a big round number you know you're in trouble.

Thankfully supply and demand levels tend not to be subjected to those kind of shenanigans as long as you're on the right side of the higher time frame direction they usually at least turn price for a enough pips to get to break even.
  • #1,148
  • Jan 7, 2013 7:55pm Jan 7, 2013 7:55pm
Out of EU long with 115 and 82 pips.
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  • #1,149
  • Jan 7, 2013 7:57pm Jan 7, 2013 7:57pm
GU +99 pips
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  • #1,150
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:05pm Jan 7, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting C-12
Turning out nice this one, sat at work and and just watching a few swings from last week play out.
Hi C12,

nice set up trade C12 , even at work, you catch a good trade of GU,
turning point around the BRN area, 15M bullish flag BKO and double bottoms

Cheers
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  • #1,151
  • Jan 8, 2013 7:26am Jan 8, 2013 7:26am
Took a silly 6 pip loss on cable. Had to pop out and didn't get to BE... Price went for 28 pips and came back and took me out.
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  • #1,152
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:01am Jan 8, 2013 10:01am
i didnt take this trade but i think for a fast scalper, this was an almost perfect wonderful level to enter

we had lots of big players loading up their buy orders on january 3

there clearly had to be some orders left at that point... now the YEN is falling and i would wait for clearer engulfing for a swing trade, but talking about scalping the minute wonderland, this was a fast and clear 10-20 pip winner

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  • #1,153
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:11am Jan 8, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Infest
i didnt take this trade but i think for a fast scalper, this was an almost perfect wonderful level to enter

we had lots of big players loading up their buy orders on january 3

there clearly had to be some orders left at that point... now the YEN is falling and i would wait for clearer engulfing for a swing trade, but talking about scalping the minute wonderland, this was a fast and clear 10-20 pip winner

Attachment
Looks like my kinda entry

I got BE out of above long but caught the retrace short earlier on my iphone with 2 x 20 pips. Will post these up later since they were pretty nice entries.
  • #1,154
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:12am Jan 8, 2013 10:12am
Hi everyone!

Went long EURUSD on this 30min level.

Any comments welcome!
Cheers
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  • #1,155
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:33am Jan 8, 2013 10:33am
Quoting EuroPipper
Hi everyone!

Went long EURUSD on this 30min level.

Any comments welcome!
Cheers
A bit of a big ugly mid level (for my tastes) so I usually want to inspect these on lower time frames to tighten up entry. Not at home so no charts to check.
  • #1,156
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:35am Jan 8, 2013 10:35am
Quoting C-12
A bit of a big ugly mid level so I usually want to inspect these on lower time frames to tighten up entry. Not at home so no charts to check.
Agreed, there was a 15min level slightly lower, which just clipped and now up.

In anycase, going BE as soon as it can clear higher up.
  • #1,157
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:42am Jan 8, 2013 10:42am
Quoting EuroPipper
Hi everyone!

Went long EURUSD on this 30min level.

Any comments welcome!
Cheers
Ok dug out a chart. I would have definitely taken this if at home after drilling it down to the M5.
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  • #1,158
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:52am Jan 8, 2013 10:52am
Quoting C-12
Ok dug out a chart. I would have definitely taken this if at home after drilling it down to the M5.
You're absolutely right, I should've zoomed-in on that one. Hence the trade would be clearly in the green now.

Very good lesson there! Thank you C-12.
  • #1,159
  • Jan 8, 2013 11:08am Jan 8, 2013 11:08am
Hi gang,

wanna share a few M1 trades i made today.
Hope thats fine with you.

EJ short.

Using PA only. The blue line is EMA 14.

Happy pipping,

Ciara
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Ideas shape the course of history
  • #1,160
  • Jan 8, 2013 11:15am Jan 8, 2013 11:15am
depending on someones risk aversion, this could be even more on EURJPY... but since yen is very strong currently, the safer bet would still have been the fast scalp at 65-70 level

http://gyazo.com/47a97526b2f5ee47d424bd595d666dda.png
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