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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,841
  • Edited 12:15pm Jan 7, 2013 10:48am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting tubguy
Exactly! Just pull back and let er fly. i have also found I shoot better this way. When aiming, things move to much. When I point and shoot, seems to work better.
notice the dream song?
is same notes, different key, different octaves, different pitch, makes a million permutations.
there's only 7 notes. 7 days, 7 colours, 7 year itch?

God created man's brain.
Is too creative and powerful to be pinned down.
Is called nature.
But man refuses use it, what a waste.
Instead lives on insecurity. creates rigidity.

But of course must have basics, then development begins.

regards

sifu huang taught me 7 basic moves, 5 warm up exercises.
Trained for years master the 7 basics.
I used be able spar training on 7 moves.
next encounter i can try floor him in 3.
anyone for trumpets?
now i can hardly walk.
ai ya wish sifu is still around.

ai ya why woman like play with sharp dangerous objects? Anyone's girlfriends?
eeeei ya, eeeei ya, ai ya.why can't i dance like that hor.

Inserted Video


:rofl : still can remember training on rattan long sticks.
Dang hands all blisters, worst than golf.
  • #37,842
  • Jan 7, 2013 12:51pm Jan 7, 2013 12:51pm
Hi Fti!
I think it is time for you to sleep. It is my day now... yours night!

I would like your comments on my "idea". I am working toward (building my cap.) for a "full time trading", starting in September. I know, it is next to impossible to have a meaningfull input without knowing more particulars about my experience, Cap., ect, ect,. This is why I like the idea of "private room", where more freedom is allowed. But I understand your condition, and no obligation on your part is required to do anything. Only if you feel so, or need more
frustration, and aggravation .
Honestly, You give more than enough to succeed as trader and as individual. It is only requires a willing heart and mind!
Blessings, Jaro

P.S. You can answer here, PM, or no comment.... ALL ARE GOOD my friend!
  • #37,843
  • Jan 7, 2013 1:27pm Jan 7, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting Jaro
Hi Fti!
I think it is time for you to sleep. It is my day now... yours night!

I would like your comments on my "idea". I am working toward (building my cap.) for a "full time trading", starting in September. I know, it is next to impossible to have a meaningfull input without knowing more particulars about my experience, Cap., ect, ect,. This is why I like the idea of "private room", where more freedom is allowed. But I understand your condition, and no obligation on your part is required to do anything. Only if you feel so,...

wow amazing.
michelles abilities use her kung fu , also dance with fans.
just for info she is a well trained kung fu girl hor.
no kidding , she's real.

Inserted Video


@Jaro,
I feel i cannot shoulder the resposibility of carrying private room training.
but if you need some help can always email me details.
I see what i can do help you along.
if you email me pls highlight on thread or PM me about it, because i have like 500+ unread emails already.
If you want go pro, must be sure have adequate cap for viability.
unnecessary pressure from living expenses can cause mindset disorientation, sometimes.
also overleveraging.
I think you know.
If you like show me your ideas, i will give some thoughts and see if can point you forward, best I can.

regards

ai ya this aud wait is very long.
Hope i not doze off.
  • #37,844
  • Edited 1:51pm Jan 7, 2013 1:35pm | Edited 1:51pm


looks like they gettng very fierce?

Don't mess with them, or you'll be sorry.

Inserted Video


but always this thought comes to mind.
just do it for health is ok la.

Inserted Video
  • #37,845
  • Jan 7, 2013 2:02pm Jan 7, 2013 2:02pm
[quote=fti;6344585]wow amazing.
michelles abilities use her kung fu , also dance with fans.
just for info she is a well trained kung fu girl hor.
no kidding , she's real.

Inserted Video


@Jaro,
I feel i cannot shoulder the resposibility of carrying private room training.
but if you need some help can always email me details.
I see what i can do help you along.
if you email me pls highlight on thread or PM me about it, because i have like 500+ unread emails already.
If you want go pro, must be sure have adequate cap for viability.
unnecessary pressure from living expenses can cause mindset disorientation, sometimes.
also overleveraging.
I think you know.
If you like show me your ideas, i will give some thoughts and see if can point you forward, best I can.

regards

Thanks, fti!
I do not have your email, and cannot PM you... Yes I would like answers to those areas that you highlited. Of course needs are different for different people, so it is not black and white question..
  • #37,846
  • Jan 7, 2013 2:25pm Jan 7, 2013 2:25pm
[quote=Jaro;6344654]
Quoting fti
wow amazing.
michelles abilities use her kung fu , also dance with fans.
just for info she is a well trained kung fu girl hor.
no kidding , she's real.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=528IvgMjMcI

@Jaro,
I feel i cannot shoulder the resposibility of carrying private room training.
but if you need some help can always email me details.
I see what i can do help you along.
if you email me pls highlight on thread or PM me about it, because i have like 500+ unread emails already.
If you want go pro, must be sure have [b][color=darkred]adequate...

Thanks Fti, will sleep on it...
  • #37,847
  • Jan 7, 2013 2:59pm Jan 7, 2013 2:59pm
I think the fallacy is not in the Technical Analysis per se. Rather, I think the fallacy is that you expect to extract abnormal profit from trading using any kind of TA, i.e. with low volatility in your trading account you will be able to produce big profits. Profits can be extracted, but very, very small - the big profits are just noise in your account. And so are the big losses - they are not necessarily the result of bad trading, weak psychology, or changing markets - just as big profits are not the result of good discipline or well tested trading strategy. Most of it is just noise. That's the fallacy - to interpret randomness and luck as something meaningful. Why would you think you can extract big profits from the most competitive markets in the world? Based on what? Can you produce great profits by selling potatoes? No one would think that. And yet you have a higher chance of making it big from selling potatoes than selling/buying currency pairs - at least your potatoes or your selling stand, or may be your production technology is different that some one else's. But how is your currency or your information different than anyone else's? We all see the same quotes, at the same time, and get the news at the same time as anybody else. So why expect a result different than anybody else? That would be a fallacy or self delusion.
  • #37,848
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:40pm Jan 7, 2013 5:40pm
[quote=drzakir123;6345072][quote=onitron;6344770]I think the fallacy is not in the Technical Analysis per se. Rather, I think the fallacy is that you expect to extract abnormal profit from trading using any kind of TA, i.e. with low volatility in your trading account you will be able to produce big profits.Profits can be extracted, but very, very small - the big profits are just noise in your account. And so are the big losses - they are not necessarily the result of bad trading, weak psychology, or changing markets - just as big profits are not the result of good discipline or well tested trading strategy. Most of it is just noise.
mister, u seems to be assuming lot of things.when one is well prepared,one will be lucky and not the other way round.
That's the fallacy - to interpret randomness and luck as something meaningful.

markets are not random and there is a dependency in prices,from min to min,hour to hour,day to day,month to month and year to year,mandelbrot has proved that mathemathically,suggest to read misbehaviour of markets by him.

Why would you think you can extract big profits from the most competitive markets in the world? Based on what?
based on skill and understanding. based on your logic we will be still shiting in the fields rather than toilets.
Can you produce great profits by selling potatoes? No one would think that. And yet you have a higher chance of making it big from selling potatoes than selling/buying currency pairs - at least your potatoes or your selling stand, or may be your production technology is different that some one else's.
my time frame is different.
But how is your currency or your information different than anyone else's? We all see the same quotes, at the same time, and get the news at the same time as anybody else. So why expect a result different than anybody else?
becos we feel the quotes and prices That would be a fallacy or self delusion.

u seems to be a guy who knows the price of everything and value of nothing.if u look at the price from long time frame seller and long time frame buyer u see different value but the same price.basically we trade time here and if u dont understand time u will be in lot of big surpises.let me tell u this i can both buy and sell from u at the same price and becos of my time frame i am working on i am going to make profit and u going to suffer loss in the same trade. some where recently fti talking about million permutation and things like that recently,pay attention.


regards and god bless u.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,849
  • Edited 8:09pm Jan 7, 2013 7:23pm | Edited 8:09pm
[quote=drzakir123;6345080][quote=drzakir123;6345072]
Quoting onitron
I think the fallacy is not in the Technical Analysis per se. Rather, I think the fallacy is that you expect to extract abnormal profit from trading using any kind of TA, i.e. with low volatility in your trading account you will be able to produce big profits.[color=black]Profits can be extracted, but very, very small - the big profits are just noise in your account. And so are the big losses - they are not necessarily the result of bad trading, weak psychology, or changing markets - just as big profits...
Dr .
did you see what he started?

"Hi guys, I am applying for a managing position at a financial news website that wants to develop their FOREX section. I am expected to write a proposal or strategy how to do that. My trading experience is mostly with equities, but I have also traded futures and FX. So I know what I would like to see and require as a stocks trader, but I am not so sure about FOREX. I researched various FX websites, including FOREX Factory (which I like most), and I quickly came to the conclusion that to make a successful FX section, we have to provide something different, or add some value to an already existing tool or service."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=403897

he believes he highly qualified.
Managing financial news website?
Maybe he should go to scholl learn how to read first.
All i like say to him is "First to Bata, then to school."

MANAGERS. Oh for goodness sake, he should go apply for a job MANAGING counter at macdonalds.
He's fishing for free experience.

Why is it that many peeps that come to a thread, knows nothing thats happening there thinks they the greatest thing since apple pie?
Did you read his post?
I only see I,I,I,I,I,I,I.
Great introduction he made.
Anyone here knows the joker?
The subject on discussion is not I.
Is YOU.
Why YOU fails.

Maybe i should add to thread title?
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS NOT A FALLACY
IS you THATS THE FALLACY.

Then i would need add again after another 2000 pages.
IS you THAT NOT KNOW HOW USE IT, THATS THE FALLACY.

Then after another 2000 pages need add.

FORTUNE TELLING FALLACY.

Then after another 2000 pages................

will be forever adding to the title.

I think i better stop. He probably ASSUMES that YOU means him.same as I.
and he probably ASSUMES that I means ME.

ai ya. but since he was not rude.
OK 1 GREAT advice for YOU.

The delusions, its in your head. You clear that and all will work.
Read 2000 pages of the thread , you will rediscover yourself.



regards
  • #37,850
  • Edited 8:15pm Jan 7, 2013 7:37pm | Edited 8:15pm
OK, the figs are bad.
So if they want carry it to 1.06 then we will need CB tell them where they should park it.
Lots peeps digging for info.

Million $ question.
Will there be a rate drop?

2 million $ question.
How many bps?

1.04 testing will be very interesting.

regards
  • #37,851
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:08pm Jan 7, 2013 8:08pm
Quoting onitron
I think the fallacy is not in the Technical Analysis per se. Rather, I think the fallacy is that you expect to extract abnormal profit from trading using any kind of TA, i.e. with low volatility in your trading account you will be able to produce big profits. Profits can be extracted, but very, very small - the big profits are just noise in your account. And so are the big losses - they are not necessarily the result of bad trading, weak psychology, or changing markets - just as big profits are not the result of good discipline or well tested trading...
HUH?
  • #37,852
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:11pm Jan 7, 2013 8:11pm
[quote=fti;6345258][quote=drzakir123;6345080]
Quoting drzakir123

Dr .
did you see what he started?

"Hi guys, I am applying for a managing position at a financial news website that wants to develop their FOREX section. I am expected to write a proposal or strategy how to do that. My trading experience is mostly with equities, but I have also traded futures and FX. So I know what I would like to see and require as a stocks trader, but I am not so sure about FOREX. I researched various FX websites, including FOREX Factory (which I like most), and I quickly...

Ah! Ok, now I see what he was saying. On a fishing expedition.

Funny...peeps show up here and question when they really want to learn. When I want to learn, I listen.
  • #37,853
  • Edited 8:30pm Jan 7, 2013 8:16pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting tubguy
HUH?


maybe i should learn articulate PROPERLY lor.
Ok maybe i should go back to school.
but at my age is hard get admission.

maybe just fill up form A,B,C,F.
Then get letter from them, we considering.
DON'T call us we will notify you IF we find a place we need fill.

I just love this advertise.

"Factory Rejected,Buy Quality Factory Rejected from Manufacturers"


regards
  • #37,854
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:29pm Jan 7, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting fti


maybe i should learn articulate PROPERLY lor.
Ok maybe i should go back to school.
but at my age is hard get admission.

maybe just fill up form A,B,C,F.
Then get letter from them, we considering.
DON'T call us we will notify you IF we find a place we need fill.


regards

Lmao! Yeah, I guess you just haven't made it clear enough.

Looks like the bulls won the fight in E/U. I didn't have a chance to flip so I'm just watching. No damage done while on the south bus.

They almost fooled me though.
  • #37,855
  • Edited 9:06pm Jan 7, 2013 8:37pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting tubguy
Lmao! Yeah, I guess you just haven't made it clear enough.

Looks like the bulls won the fight in E/U. I didn't have a chance to flip so I'm just watching. No damage done while on the south bus.

They almost fooled me though.

ya, have you seen tthis .
Guess who's who.

Inserted Video


But i think the usd is going get real pain from the spot that never sees the sun.
Is showing on the charts.
If euro cannot drop with all the bad stuff going on,
Guess who is in a worst state?

take a look at the 24 hours charts for euro and cable.
is a double whammy key reversals.
Someone's playing with heli's hair.

We just need to wait aud touch her bottoms and may find shooting rockets comes alive.
Be watchful.
  • #37,856
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:43pm Jan 7, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting fti

ya, have you seen tthis .
Guess who's who.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWwORD5SDtY

But i think the usd is going get real pain from the spot that never sees the sun.
Is showing on the charts.

Wow! I could barely understand anything they said. They talk fast.

I agree about the usd. Lots of strange shit going on here. Looks like they trying to crash it on purpose. Guess we'll know soon enough.
  • #37,857
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:08pm Jan 7, 2013 9:08pm
Quoting tubguy
Wow! I could barely understand anything they said. They talk fast.

I agree about the usd. Lots of strange shit going on here. Looks like they trying to crash it on purpose. Guess we'll know soon enough.
the plan's simple.
crash it and pay out less.
Whats the usd debt clock now?

If the value holds the garment have too redeem the bonds.
If market crashed, the peeps pay collectively, get it?
selfish smart kids, with professorships?

regards

now only thingy can do is wait the aud find her bottoms.
  • #37,858
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:17pm Jan 7, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting fti
the plan's simple.
crash it and pay out less.
Whats the usd debt clock now?

If the value holds the garment have too redeem the bonds.
If market crashed, the peeps pay collectively, get it?
selfish smart kids, with professorships?

regards
I am pretty sure the debt clock is pushing 17 trillion at a very rapid pace.

Haven't thought about the "collectively" part. Makes sense
  • #37,859
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:23pm Jan 7, 2013 9:23pm
Listening from morning and it is just sucking me all the time...sure there is some meaning...

Inserted Video



Btw i have a real high fidelity file and difference is huge chief ...a little love we get from pursuing a hoby



BTW AUD numbers came bad and still not going down....amazing...
  • #37,860
  • Edited 2:22am Jan 8, 2013 1:44am | Edited 2:22am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Listening from morning and it is just sucking me all the time...sure there is some meaning...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww-aOIQKMIc


Btw i have a real high fidelity file and difference is huge chief ...a little love we get from pursuing a hoby



BTW AUD numbers came bad and still not going down....amazing...
ya i know, thats why when i hear peeps say no diff in mp3 files.
i beklieve they deaf or they using inferior equiptment.
If they using inferior equiptment, then there will be not much diff.

Is same as in trading.
somethings discussed, some will not understand, without having experienced, they think it not matters.


ya i took pee already and now trying longs in euro.
i not long auds because i not want stand in front of their CB smash me into pieces, if they decided to respond.

if need be long, cable is the one.
if need be short , aud is the one.
but no listen to me.
use eyes and ears, i cannot warn anyone fast enough if winds change.
I not actively trading. Now i not have energy do much dancing.
Just a little play only, very laid back.

cable 1.60 cannot crack.
so may test 1.6 to 1.63 where we came from.
that is the range possiblilities.
nothing is written in stone.
its best just dance the rhythm.
the short side rhythm is nearly finished.
may try 1 more time
but is already not worth the risk.
Already cleared mind, dancing long side.

With Aud figs bad,and not want go down, is either waiting CB, or the bid may be very big ambush downside.
euro, their CB wants stronger, they no bother those who cannot cope, rich men leads.
cable will be wild both ways. king not welcome the stronger cable, but markets following ecb.
so mostly will be 2 way flows.
try stay with the dance.
no bias is best.
No more fundemental drivers for now.

On usd the retail figs was good.
now just need employment figs confirm is real.
we need wait.
the weakness in usd is now mostly due to heli pumping 40b in markets every time it itches.
so if keep adding water, how going make good soup?
is all dilutions. which is making usd weaker and weaker.
If this happens long term, then just watch the peeps wealth indexes, aka ppp(purchasing power parity)
lets see how poor he van make the peeps before they fry it.

Traditionally can watch stocks for indicators.
but he pumping wall street, so it becomes unreliable indicator.
better watch commodity prices.
Gold used to be good indicator.
FrankDodd divorced her from usa, so gold also become only mistress.
Black gold is politically manipulated.
so only thing left is inflation indicators, but is not the packages they presenting.
Is the real ground inflation need know.
So 3 rd party figs will be more reliable vs the govt issues.


regards
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