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2013... Make or Break time

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 11:11am Jan 1, 2013 10:14am | Edited 11:11am
Hello everyone!

Here is a little info about my past trading.

Started trading forex last year. Started with a few $250 micro accounts which I blew. Demo traded for a few months and did very well, got my MM in check and thought I had the holy grail After my demo I went live with a $1000 account, had a draw down to $500 in the first few weeks and then back up to $900. Stopped and demo traded yet again for a few weeks. Started live again on 11-25-12 with my $900 and had yet another draw down, this time to $400 and brought that back to $800.

So here I am in 2013 starting fresh and have a $3000 account. Started reading a lot of good books and really got my MM in place and my emotions in check for the moment I just got back from the store and bought a few things for my trading desk, dry erase board, notebooks, journal etc..
I'm am taking this as serious as anyone can.

So I'm 24 and would like to be consistently profitable in the next few months and hopefully make a living out of this in the near future!

I trade mainly the eur/usd, sometimes other pairs. I like to swing trade and sometimes a few scalps during the day.
Risk is between 2-4% with sometimes upping it to 5% with a confident signal.
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  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:18am Jan 1, 2013 10:18am
Trade outlook for 1-1-13

Once people digest this fiscal BS I will have a better direction in mind.

As of right now I am watching 2 important levels

current price 1.32032

Sell below 1.31604 Pivot down at 1.31652
Buy above 1.33028 Pivot up at 1.32558

Until either is broken I think we will be bouncing between those 2 levels.
My 2013 out look for the eur is bearish.

I will try to post my trades daily. I hope everyone enjoys this thread! And I wish everyone a very profitable year!
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  • #3
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:15am Jan 1, 2013 11:15am
Quoting BobGnarly
Trade outlook for 1-1-13

Once people digest this fiscal BS I will have a better direction in mind.

As of right now I am watching 2 important levels

current price 1.32032

Sell below 1.31604 Pivot down at 1.31652
Buy above 1.33028 Pivot up at 1.32558

Until either is broken I think we will be bouncing between those 2 levels.
My 2013 out look for the eur is bearish.

I will try to post my trades daily. I hope everyone enjoys this thread! And I wish everyone a very profitable year!

Hi Bob

As far as your EU outlook is concerned,

Had similar experience as you with blowing numerous accounts - larger balance though does not help with being more successful - trading microlots is a far better idea - never use that high leverage unless you're trading with 50K or more!

Would advise to look at more then one trading pair. Last Friday was a good example - EU was almost impossible to trade whereas GU, EJ, CJ and even EG were all trending nicely.

What strategy do you use?

Regards

Jerry
  • #4
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:21am Jan 1, 2013 11:21am
Quoting jmtini
Hi Bob

As far as your EU outlook is concerned,

Had similar experience as you with blowing numerous accounts - larger balance though does not help with being more successful - trading microlots is a far better idea - never use that high leverage unless you're trading with 50K or more!

Would advise to look at more then one trading pair. Last Friday was a good example - EU was almost impossible to trade whereas GU, EJ, CJ and even EG were all trending nicely.

What strategy do you use?

Regards

Jerry

Hi, Jerry. Thanks for the reply!

I never trade a full lot, mostly between 20k-40k units. Leverage is set at 50:1 currently...
I'm glad you like my eu outlook But we are at a very critical price point here, where it can fly either direction but by looking at the large TF's I do see a down year, frankly it shouldn't be as high as it is now.

I do trade other pairs on occasion, actually all the ones you mentioned. And I will do so when the liquidity isn't in the eur/usd.

My strategy is mainly PA, I draw my own levels on the daily chart and go from there, using fibo occasionally. I trade on the daily/weekly charts and look for entries all the way down to the 5-15min tf's.

R:R is usually 1:2, 1:3... I just got done reading your thread on the magic-breakout, it is quite interesting and I wish you best!
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  • #5
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:46am Jan 1, 2013 11:46am
Quoting BobGnarly
Hi, Jerry. Thanks for the reply!

I never trade a full lot, mostly between 20k-40k units. Leverage is set at 50:1 currently...
I'm glad you like my eu outlook But we are at a very critical price point here, where it can fly either direction but by looking at the large TF's I do see a down year, frankly it shouldn't be as high as it is now.

I do trade other pairs on occasion, actually all the ones you mentioned. And I will do so when the liquidity isn't in the eur/usd.

My strategy is mainly PA, I draw my own levels on the daily chart...
Hi Bob

Thanks so much.

I was a miserable failure at price action trading (for nearly 3 years!) which is why I've changed my trading strategy completely. If you want to get more info and some trading results on my magic breakout EA just PM me and I'll send you the details. Don't know how much time you have to watch the charts but some time ago I realised that I just can't be watching them from 7.00am to 7.00pm everyday and if one doesn't, how often one misses that all important move! That's why I'm going down the VPS and automated route. Couldn't before because I didn't have a reliable EA but now I do - it's all systems go!

Rgds

Jerry
  • #6
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:51am Jan 1, 2013 11:51am
Quoting jmtini
Hi Bob

Thanks so much.

I was a miserable failure at price action trading (for nearly 3 years!) which is why I've changed my trading strategy completely. If you want to get more info and some trading results on my magic breakout EA just PM me and I'll send you the details. Don't know how much time you have to watch the charts but some time ago I realised that I just can't be watching them from 7.00am to 7.00pm everyday and if one doesn't, how often one misses that all important move! That's why I'm going down the VPS and automated route. Couldn't...

I work m-f , early, 6am to 1pm. So I normally do miss the "power hrs" unless I'm trading on my iphone which I hate and usually end up losing on trades that way. I normally put on my trades at the end of the day and start of asian markets. I'm quite opposite with the PA, indicators tend to make me over think things. I would like some info on your system it seems quite interesting. I do not use MT4 however..
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  • #7
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:58am Jan 1, 2013 11:58am
Quoting BobGnarly
I work m-f , early, 6am to 1pm. So I normally do miss the "power hrs" unless I'm trading on my iphone which I hate and usually end up losing on trades that way. I normally put on my trades at the end of the day and start of asian markets. I'm quite opposite with the PA, indicators tend to make me over think things. I would like some info on your system it seems quite interesting. I do not use MT4 however..

Oh I see.

I'm sure my indi's and EA, etc., work on MT4 only.

If you do start using MT4 in the future, do let me know but I wish you a very prosperous trading

Will keep in touch

Best Rgds

Jerry
  • #8
  • Jan 1, 2013 12:10pm Jan 1, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting jmtini
Oh I see.

I'm sure my indi's and EA, etc., work on MT4 only.

If you do start using MT4 in the future, do let me know but I wish you a very prosperous trading

Will keep in touch

Best Rgds

Jerry
Yes I started out with Mt4 but didnt care for it, but it does seem to be the most popular platform.
Stop in here often and see my progress , also feel free to pm me any time with trade ideas etc..
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  • #9
  • Jan 1, 2013 12:24pm Jan 1, 2013 12:24pm
Levels I am currently watching.. The lines were drawn on a weekly tf so if they look a little off thats why.
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  • #10
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:45pm Jan 1, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Hello everyone!....Started with a Risk is between 2-4% with sometimes upping it to 5% with a confident signal.
IMHO, this is already your first major mistake, one that your prior bad experiences should have weaned you off of. Simply put, there is no such animal as a signal which carries more confidence than any other.

Need proof? OK, so let's break it down: You take a trade with maximum risk allotted because it was one of your 'confident' signals -- and still your SL is hit. Where does that leave you (besides deeper in the hole)? It leaves you ever questioning your methodology; it leaves you in a perpetual state of anxiety; it leaves always second-guessing yourself. Why? Because you are placing WAY too much into your so-called ability to "read" the markets. You just risked double your average, because of this 'ability' to pre-determine signal confidence which lulls you into a sense of false-confidence, and still you lost.

Simply put, your trading will never take off until you learn how to remove your ego from the equation 100% of the time. The moment you start caring about a trade, is the first sign that it has already hurt you.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #11
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:43pm Jan 1, 2013 4:43pm
I respect your opinion. thank you

98% of the time I am at 2% risk. I should of worded this better, when my risk increases it is just because I add to a good trade. I never had a single trade take away more than 5% of my account.

I also agree that when I first started I was trading around 5% that was back when I was still learning everything and I am thankful it was only small amounts of money when I learned those mistakes. It would keep me up at night and have me worried all day. That is my downfall and I will overcome that and I already have started.
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  • #12
  • Edited 7:32pm Jan 1, 2013 5:00pm | Edited 7:32pm
Small short here with a tight SL at 1.3218

TP 1.3170

Risk at $9.00


Decided to change it to 10,000 units..


got stopped out earlier I lowered my SL to 1.32085 -$3.70
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  • #13
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:19pm Jan 2, 2013 7:19pm
Got into a short this morning at 1.3168


TP 1.2870
SL 1.3244
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  • #14
  • Edited 8:48am Jan 4, 2013 7:59am | Edited 8:48am
Well held my shorts this week, out for the week now

Beginning Balance $3,030.00

End of week $3,210.66

7% gain
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  • #15
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:10am Jan 4, 2013 10:10am
Always thought I needed mt4 broker for the trade explorer. I just found out that is not true, so I sent a request to FF to add my broker.
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  • #16
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:54pm Jan 5, 2013 3:54pm
What I'm looking at for next week.. I don't normally use indicators. When I do its the ichimoku, which is by far my favorite.

Levels for sunday I will be watching

To the up side

1.30918 for resistance. with a break leading up to 1.30418

1.2996 for support . with a break leading down to 1.29487
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17
  • Jan 5, 2013 6:27pm Jan 5, 2013 6:27pm
why would you insert even more money when you have a history of huge drawdowns? wouldn't it make sense to see consistent and stable gains first?
  • #18
  • Jan 5, 2013 8:11pm Jan 5, 2013 8:11pm
Good luck Bob,

Just don't be afraid to slow down a bit on the risk side of things. The important thing for you to do right now is build consistency through the next few months of trading.

If you want to risk with larger size, look into "legging in" for trades that are working for you. You'll have slightly less winners and more break evens this way, but the winners that do work out are of a much higher size and profit, plus a string of losers doesn't hurt as much. It's kinda like pyramiding into a position. I only mention this since you trade with longer timeframes and levels in mind so it could fit well.

Cheers!
FXGears.com
  • #19
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:30pm Jan 5, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
Good luck Bob,

Just don't be afraid to slow down a bit on the risk side of things. The important thing for you to do right now is build consistency through the next few months of trading.

If you want to risk with larger size, look into "legging in" for trades that are working for you. You'll have slightly less winners and more break evens this way, but the winners that do work out are of a much higher size and profit, plus a string of losers doesn't hurt as much. It's kinda like pyramiding into a position. I only mention this since you...

Hey Jack, thanks!


I actually have been adding to the winners. I adjust stop losses along the way to lower risk and mostly to BE
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  • #20
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:33pm Jan 5, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting aspiring25
why would you insert even more money when you have a history of huge drawdowns? wouldn't it make sense to see consistent and stable gains first?
It was a few small accounts while I was demo trading at the same time.. I have my money management under control now and so far so good. I'm sticking strictly to my trading plan and adjusted my risk to 2% max.
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