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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #18,621
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:22pm Jan 4, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting pkimnyc
understanding every market conditions is important, imo.
that doesn't neccessarily mean you go trade everytime.
some people are cut out for range trades, some are comfortable trading trends.
one needs to choose and develop trading plans based on that. hence, understanding what tools are effective in which market conditions are important.
!!!
  • #18,622
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:27pm Jan 4, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting Hcp
Hi Jordfx
I was watching this in 4H
I agree with your opinion of new adds to the system.
thank you again
I'm not sure what you mean by "...new adds to the system."??? I'm not advocating for additions to the strategy...if that's what you mean. Just stay with whatever you're comfortable with. The hard part is becoming comfortable with yourself.
  • #18,623
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:39pm Jan 4, 2013 3:39pm
...for clarity...when I say "...You don't really need anything 'NEW'."...I'm not talking about the strategy in this thread. I'M TALKING ABOUT WHATEVER STRATEGY, METHODS, INDICATORS, SYSTEM OF STRATEGIES, THAT YOU'RE CURRENTLY USING,UNDERSTAND AND IS WORKING WELL FOR YOU! At what point do you say enough is enough I'm ok with this system? If you're not getting enough frequent signals to satiate your lust for pips, before jumping to look for anything 'NEW', first look in the mirror. Do a self analysis. With enough patience and proper money management would you still be able to achieve your goals with the current strategy you're using?(whatever it is!). If yes, then all you might actually need could just be a 'NEW' you!
  • #18,624
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:43pm Jan 4, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting jordfx
Helee, I notice you have so few posts on this thread so far...with the issues you seem to be having, why not post most of your failing trades and see if we can't help each other out? Making of pdfs has already been done extensively by forexnerds to filter out the unnecessary posts and focus on the core dynamics of this strategy, so I don't think thats the issue here. We've all been where you are right now, and believe me you can get out of it and improve tremendously if just but share your trades and challenges. We're all here to help!
Hi jordfx,

Thx for your input and for your concern, indeed i am not much of a contributor here, I wanted to read the thread so i could contribute, but while reading and trading, doesnt seem to be a good attitude.
Indeed i dont post any lost trade due to, I use MT4 and its indis to give the clues for the trades, and i enter the trades on the brokers web application, the results exported to an excel spreads sheet which just gives the start and close positions and the euros values, it is not a very clear or readable like is in a graphic form. but if you think is fair enough i can post them here, no problem with me.
If you can point out a good pdf file form someone posted here, i´ll be glad to look into it.

Thx
Helee
  • #18,625
  • Jan 4, 2013 4:20pm Jan 4, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting jordfx
...for clarity...when I say "...You don't really need anything 'NEW'."...I'm not talking about the strategy in this thread. I'M TALKING ABOUT WHATEVER STRATEGY, METHODS, INDICATORS, SYSTEM OF STRATEGIES, THAT YOU'RE CURRENTLY USING,UNDERSTAND AND IS WORKING WELL FOR YOU! At what point do you say enough is enough I'm ok with this system? If you're not getting enough frequent signals to satiate your lust for pips, before jumping to look for anything 'NEW', first look in the mirror. Do a self analysis. With enough patience and proper money management...

Hi gang,

I'd like to add my two pips on the debate above:

Real market movers are fear and greed. Fear - it is easy to spot, a bit harder to overcome. We all know that. We are, however less aware of our greed, which attacks our amotions and our patience. I'll quote my friend, who has recently posted a few sentences. I think he nailed it:

"You will become profitable only when you become able to control your greed. You should be able to ignore some positions and signal that don’t look good and strong or you are late and it is not safe to enter. If you review your memory, you will see that most of the bad positions you have taken are because you have not picked a strong signal or because you had missed a strong signal but you pushed yourself to enter and make some profit and get out. But they went against you right after you entered. Maybe they have been waiting for you to enter to change their direction. Sometimes it really looks like that a position has been waiting for you to enter and right when you clicked on buy or sell button, it changed its direction. It is because you are late or you have picked a poor signal."

That's something we should keep in mind too.

Regarding the system - it's nothing new. It's actually a continuation of the M15 Dance System. The original system, or if u read the Thread, add money management, GREED control and train your eyes - can easily make u 20-30 pips a day every day. It works in certain conditions. I have been working hard over the last few weeks to add my own system for range market condition. I'm trying to double it by adding LFT range market setup (I think, thats the Golden Goose, Arjun has been promising us to deliver in his private thread - all promises disappeared toghether with him). I'm not going to post it here as it is not in accordance with the basic setup here. Results are awesome. Was thinking of starting my own thread..but then again..so many ppl being disonest here, and so many, as Pkimnyc, Mr.C, Aryary and others stated before, still struggling to make a few pips a day even after reading thousands of posts...I'm not sure if it makes sense. I'm a bit disappointed seeing this. Or simply the time has not come yet.

The most important thing is to train your eyes, make a plan that works and STICK TO IT. Because you know, it works, even after two or three loser trades in a row. I never risk 2.5% of account per trade. I risk 0.3-0.5%. I'm fine with that. I try to fine tune my entries (LTF-M5 and M1 in general is an excellent training field) in order to reduce the size of SL and improve the RR ratio (part of money management).

Bottom line: I managed to reach the profitability in over 90% of the trades taken. Using the wisdom from the basic setup, original M15 Dance method, my own LTF goose, Emmanuels CS patterns (they help too) and my experience. With a discipline, everyone should be able to become profitable. Never give up. 10% gain a month is a low risk reality. By compounding, you can make more than enough for a living in a short time.

Heads Up!

Ciara
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #18,626
  • Jan 4, 2013 4:20pm Jan 4, 2013 4:20pm
Hi pkimnyc and Jordfx

imo this is an important discussion and both sides make good points! :-)

first, thx jordfx for posting the case study on GU, it is a very good example for us.

Also pkimnyc thx for your clear chart earlier showing clear positive MACD divergence and crossing.

My thoughts are that Arjun taught us to always look at the big picture first, every day before trading daily, 4 hrly charts. The signs were there early (i had posted early evng watch out for pa at the big RN). There is IS enough information in the current Arjun system if we use it properly. The TDI had crossed positive and also showed divergence, but there were many other signs also (see chart). The 1.6000 is a BIG RN with lots of previous support, ADR close, price overextended from MAs, high volume on the second leg of double bottom at BRN etc

If in doubt we should stand aside until a trade is clear. Prudence and patience is best. Pick only the best trades

Goodgame42 posted a great example on GU for discussion. on the short term and on the surface the trade had merit but the bigger picture advised caution. When a market turns there will be some conflict in short term signals, this does not mean that the system does not work,it is about probabilities and knowing when not to trade.

I tend to agree with JordFX and others that we need to practice, practice the core principles of the system and not be sidetrackeed into 'new' 'better' bells and whistles. This system is based upon price action, so it will stand the test of time and evolving markets, MA are only a guide to direction. PA against s/r is key and here there have been some refinements in this area over time, with group consensus (such as previous day hi/low) that help, but the more we add the more we will become restricted imo

I agree with other recent posts that we can all do more to communicate what ARE the core principles of Arjun's system and to help newbies with some summaries of core principles, i think that it is unrealistic that we should just say 'read the thread' given it's length (we are not moth chrysallis, but at the same time we should not be spoon fed, it is a balance)

The start of the year iis maybe a good place to make some resolutions on this

P

Quoting pkimnyc
i disagree with this statement.

the strategy mentioned in this thread is just a basic stuff that works in certain market condition.
market doesn't stay in one mode. it changes periotically: market moves in one direction, consolidates, pulls back, trends, and forms top and bottom consolidation. one needs to study these market behavior. study other tools that works in these phases.
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  • #18,627
  • Jan 4, 2013 4:38pm Jan 4, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting Ciara
Hi gang,

I'd like to add my two pips on the debate above:

Real market movers are fear and greed. Fear - it is easy to spot, a bit harder to overcome. We all know that. We are, however less aware of our greed, which attacks our amotions and our patience. I'll quote my friend, who has recently posted a few sentences. I think he nailed it:

"You will become profitable only when you become able to control your greed. You should be able to ignore some positions and signal that don’t look good and strong or you are late and it is not safe to enter....
You are full of wisdom my friend. Your experience is truly invaluable.
  • #18,628
  • Jan 4, 2013 4:42pm Jan 4, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting peetee09
Hi pkimnyc and Jordfx

imo this is an important discussion and both sides make good points! :-)

first, thx jordfx for posting the case study on GU, it is a very good example for us.

Also pkimnyc thx for your clear chart earlier showing clear positive MACD divergence and crossing.

My thoughts are that Arjun taught us to always look at the big picture first, every day before trading daily, 4 hrly charts. The signs were there early (i had posted early evng watch out for pa at the big RN). There is IS enough information in the current Arjun system...
Tnx so much for your input mate. You go a long way in making this thread the richness it truly is.
  • #18,629
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:02pm Jan 4, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting peetee09
Hi pkimnyc and Jordfx

imo this is an important discussion and both sides make good points! :-)

first, thx jordfx for posting the case study on GU, it is a very good example for us.

Also pkimnyc thx for your clear chart earlier showing clear positive MACD divergence and crossing.

My thoughts are that Arjun taught us to always look at the big picture first, every day before trading daily, 4 hrly charts. The signs were there early (i had posted early evng watch out for pa at the big RN). There is IS enough information in the current Arjun system...
Hi peetee09,

Thx for your input, that exactly what we should be concentrated on, new year, new resolution, resume what good was done last here and re-enforce the juice into a positive and contributive approach, the thread as gone very lengthy, pick up the good contributions and use then as a good kick start for the new year, will no doubt will helps us as newbies.

Thnx
helee
  • #18,630
  • Jan 4, 2013 9:04pm Jan 4, 2013 9:04pm
I am still tender from my last suspension which caught me unexpectedly.I am not going to diverge into it.Its over.Suffice to say I am not seeking popularity contest.

What I got from this system is awareness of EMA's influence on price.And I thank everyone here for that.Since last 3 months I have grown as a trader and incorporated lot of insights in trading mainly Gartley patterns,Fib ratios,order flow and better understanding of volume.
For sake of this system i won't post or discuss about these.I only mention this because we are all unique and we should all develop what works for us.

EU my outlook.
On down side we may see price touching daily lower TL or even touch 200EMA 2915
On up side price may retrace .618 fib or 38.2 at 3115
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,631
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:12pm Jan 4, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting jordfx
...Another lesson on Psychology for trading.



Check your EGO at the trading room door.....

Losing a trade or being wrong about the market direction doesn’t mean you’re inferior in any way. It just means that the market didn’t move in your favor this time…there’s no reason to take it personally. Losing is part of being a trader and it’s something you can’t avoid. The more you try to avoid losing trades the more money you will lose because you will begin assigning too much importance to any one trade....


https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.n...27251415_n.jpg

the human ego is very destructive for aspiring traders. ...often seen in this thread.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,632
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:22pm Jan 4, 2013 11:22pm
Reminder to newbies here who are still looking for that perceived 'holy grail'.
Some may think that they just found their holy grail in trying to mix different things they find here in Forex Factory.
The truth will be very hard to swallow. Your trading capital will be your tuition fees to learn trading because there is no university which teaches trading and give you a degree. No matter how many forex trading books you read also will not make you a profitable trader.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,633
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:42pm Jan 4, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting Ciara
Hi gang,

I'd like to add my two pips on the debate above:

....(I think, thats the Golden Goose, Arjun has been promising us to deliver in his private thread - all promises disappeared toghether with him).

Ciara
the only reason why LE1 decided not to continue to share here is because of a few monkeys who came here and make a mockery of Forex Factory and the people who shared their experience and knowledge in this thread. These few monkeys ruin the spirit what Forex Factory stood for and has been for many years. They won't go away easily becasue this monkeys live in the trees. As traders when we read our charts, we must be able to distinguish the trees from the forest.
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,634
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:55pm Jan 4, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Reminder to newbies here who are still looking for that perceived 'holy grail'.
Some may think that they just found their holy grail in trying to mix different things they find here in Forex Factory.
The truth will be very hard to swallow. Your trading capital will be your tuition fees to learn trading because there is no university which teaches trading and give you a degree. No matter how many forex trading books you read also will not make you a profitable trader.
Newbies by default means a beginner which also means be open enough to except who you are and cultivate trading style that suits one's own personality.
It is a process that one goes through.
I know a trader here with five years of experience on this thread still not profitable.Question comes to my mind is perhaps this system is not the right one for his personality and to dogmatically adhere to a system which produces negative results contradicts very essence of your post.
There is nothing wrong experimenting.That's the only way to find out who you are and what works for you.Just because one posts here does not mean it should become end of itself.
Ciaro whom I respect greatly has involved considerably from the "system" only because he is true to himself.It's a process.

To Newbies

If you never seek you have no chance of finding.



Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,635
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:04am Jan 5, 2013 12:04am
Quoting Davit
I am still tender from my last suspension which caught me unexpectedly.I am not going to diverge into it.Its over.Suffice to say I am not seeking popularity contest.

What I got from this system is awareness of EMA's influence on price.And I thank everyone here for that.Since last 3 months I have grown as a trader and incorporated lot of insights in trading mainly Gartley patterns,Fib ratios,order flow and better understanding of volume.
For sake of this system i won't post or discuss about these.I only mention this because we are all unique and...
Hi Davit,

You are one of the very few whom I see here in this thread who has clear direction and resolution where you want to progress to be a better trader and a profitable one too.

Trading using moving averages has been around long before we had computer to plot those moving averages and draw them in our charts for us.
This 10EMA method is not a system. Only you as the trader can make it into a system because you are part of the system and to trade long term and achieve your financial goals.

I have read some threads where traders state claims like turning $1,000 into $1,000,000 in short time, few months, year, etc.
One member posted that to "make $1million, start with $2million". This statement is true. It is a money management game.
You can turn $100,000 into $1,000,000 with 300 trades over 5 years with a win-rate of between 50 and 55%.

I suggest you start your system development and have that ready as your trading business plan.

Good Trading in 2013.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,636
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:16am Jan 5, 2013 12:16am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Davit,

You are one of the very few whom I see here in this thread who has clear direction and resolution where you want to progress to be a better trader and a profitable one too.

Trading using moving averages has been around long before we had computer to plot those moving averages and draw them in our charts for us.
This 10EMA method is not a system. Only you as the trader can make it into a system because you are part of the system and to trade long term and achieve your financial goals.

I have read some threads where traders state...
Hi Emmanuel
I agree to expect exuberant expectation is dangerous.I blew my 1st account.Had lots of painful moments and still do at times however I except the very inherent risk in trading.Matter of developing thicker skin..."psychology"

You posted about reading trading books will not make you a successful trader in of itself.I would rephrase that slightly-- would being ignorant increase your edge?
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,637
  • Edited 12:39am Jan 5, 2013 12:25am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting Davit
Newbies by default means a beginner which also means be open enough to except who you are and cultivate trading style that suits one's own personality.
It is a process that one goes through.
I know a trader here with five years of experience on this thread still not profitable.Question comes to my mind is perhaps this system is not the right one for his personality and to dogmatically adhere to a system which produces negative results contradicts very essence of your post.
There is nothing wrong experimenting.That's the only way to find out who...
Hi Davit,

You post crossed mine while I was typing.

Exactly what I said is the trader is an integral part of the system he trades with. It is never about finding a system to trade. It is about developing a system to trade.

Trading is a skill based activity. It is about the trading process which the trader does everyday. This requires a lot of thinking on the part of the trader. The 'left brain and right brain' theory is in fact true in trading. Some personality will not make it to become profitable traders. But no one can ever explain why it is so.

I know you are an artist and according to this theory you are a 'right brain' person. The question is of course which part of the brain is dominant. So only you can eventually show how true this theory is. Nevertheless, there are exceptions to the norm.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,638
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:39am Jan 5, 2013 12:39am
Quoting emmanuel7788
the only reason why LE1 decided not to continue to share here is because of a few monkeys who came here and make a mockery of Forex Factory and the people who shared their experience and knowledge in this thread. These few monkeys ruin the spirit what Forex Factory stood for and has been for many years. They won't go away easily becasue this monkeys live in the trees. As traders when we read our charts, we must be able to distinguish the trees from the forest.
Please Emmanuel don't think I am arguing with you I just want to voice my opinion freely .

Person who started this thread kept mentioning God on every opportunity (even though I am an atheist) and he kept saying "love Everyone" even his signature says so.
So entire believe system fell apart because he could not except "monkeys" even though he loves everyone....(please pause and think about this)
I see a clear contradiction here.If 99.9% posters here are "followers" and not "monkeys" then why did the beloved leader abandoned 99.9% Followers and how is that fit into "loving everyone"
And how is that not example of super ego playing hurt.
Elephant does not care about an ant unless it was never an elephant to begin with.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,639
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:03am Jan 5, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Davit
Please Emmanuel don't think I am arguing with you I just want to voice my opinion freely .

Person who started this thread kept mentioning God on every opportunity (even though I am an atheist) and he kept saying "love Everyone" even his signature says so.
So entire believe system fell apart because he could not except "monkeys" even though he loves everyone....
I see a clear contradiction here.If 99.9% posters here are "followers" and not "monkeys" then why did the beloved leader abandoned 99.9% Followers and how is that fit into "loving...
Davit,
no worries mate.
I don't think we are arguing here. We both are mature adults and we can talk openly with mutual respect for each other.
There is no need for members here to get personal since we all are writing behind anonymity. If there are issue with one another, we can always use the PM feature to talk.

I do not want to bring up the past events that happened in this thread. Of course, with wisdom and benefit of hindsight. I can easily say that the situation could have been differently dealth with. There was an opportunity to learn from and teach lessons, but that opportunity was not made use of. A missed opportunity. This happens in life and we cannot turn back the clock.

I think we can now put the matter behind us and we can all move forward to share and discuss this 10EMA method. I think this thread can continue with the basic foundation of love and sharing, helping the newbies to learn, and of course think of our social responsibility as traders. We must show mutual respect for one another given the fact that we are of different nationalities, culture, religion, ... in a public domain.

Talking about elephants, here is a joke:
When elephants fight, the grass will suffer.
When elephants make love, the grass also suffer.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,640
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:25am Jan 5, 2013 1:25am
Quoting jordfx
As an exercise for newbies. Post your answers to the following trade. Keep it simple. Lets see if we can all learn something together.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357328518

Good weekend exercise:

1) It is a question for newbies why you remove the 'training wheels' (the TDI).
- stick with the Basic setup chart with TDI. The Heiken Ashi HA is optional but it will help you in getting that 20pips everyday.

2) Do you know which trend you are trading? the M15 trend, the H1 trend or the H4 trend?

There are process you need to think about and you must be able to see all these quickly:

Price Action> Trend > Multi-Time Frame > Momentum > Support and Resistance > Continuation > Volatility > Market Strength > Range > Confluence > Timing.

This is not a riddle. These are things you need to see on your M15 charts and make that trade decision.


CONSISTENCY in what you see is vital for the high probablity trade decision.

See the pic Market Trend below and the old example posted months ago also using GU then.

Trade Well!
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Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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