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Silent Service Method

  • #15,041
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:13pm Jan 4, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Thanks for your take on AUDUSD. I agree that it would be better taking long. But I just have this feeling of getting a downward spike if it go over 1.6 -- no backup theory, though. Maybe the rate change would happen...

Next week seems a bit hard to predict. GU just made a big down hammer on a weekly. EU also made a negative engulfing candle on weekly, but the daily uptrend line is intact (it turned around @ 1.3)...

We'll see
I'd give up trying to predict the future, just trade in the direction things are actually going... You're putting a lot more thought into things than most people though, you're on the right track.
  • #15,042
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:18pm Jan 4, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I'd give up trying to predict the future, just trade in the direction things are actually going... You're putting a lot more thought into things than most people though, you're on the right track.
"Prediction" is a bad word choice -- should've said "prepare" or something Have a great weekend!!
  • #15,043
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:14pm Jan 4, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
1.05 is just a VERY round number as opposed to just a round number. Even if these numbers haven't particularly acted as s/r in the past there is always potential for them to. Remember that audusd hasn't traded much around these levels historically and so it is still as yet a pretty much unmapped field. (I hope this is what you would have answered Chris?)

BTW good call on audusd, it's only obvious if you spotted it!
Yes - 1.05 is an obvious spot for me simply because it is a "500 pip" line......there is almost always a reaction on these in major pairs.
  • #15,044
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:14pm Jan 4, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
That's the choppiest NFP I've seen in a while.
I was out and about during the day, didn't even bother looking at the charts until I got home about 3 pm EST........I've all but given up on NFP Fridays.
  • #15,045
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:07pm Jan 4, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
I was out and about during the day, didn't even bother looking at the charts until I got home about 3 pm EST........I've all but given up on NFP Fridays.
I know what you mean. I've noticed though that since I started trading with Vantage who are an STP broker you get a lot less of the wild swings that you experience with a bucket shop (sorry, market maker) like Alpari. I have found nfp days quite tradeable after the announcement and the dust has settled a bit. Things tend to have a small reaction up and down and then just go in one direction rather than whipping a hundred pips up and a hundred pips down.

I was long yen pairs going in to it and had moved the stops up tight as you had and got taken out of a few of them with the reaction to the news but the afternoon gave opportunities to reestablish positions so I am now long nearly all yen pairs and break even.
  • #15,046
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:45am Jan 5, 2013 7:45am
CW

Do these interest you?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu day.jpg Size: 202 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu w.jpg Size: 224 KB
  • #15,047
  • Jan 5, 2013 8:09am Jan 5, 2013 8:09am
Hey guys,

Haven't had the chance to read the thread yet, but from what i read in the first post, this is geared towards longterm trading (correct me if i am wrong).
Do you use COT reports for trend spotting?

GL and a Happy 2013!
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #15,048
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:22am Jan 5, 2013 11:22am
Quoting Forexgogo
CW

Do these interest you?
I'm short gbpnzd and gbp is looking weak if that helps. Not sure about anything against the usd at the moment. Not sure about eur either, was getting strong and now looking weak, I'll look for evidence first.
  • #15,049
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:24am Jan 5, 2013 11:24am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey guys,

Haven't had the chance to read the thread yet, but from what i read in the first post, this is geared towards longterm trading (correct me if i am wrong).
Do you use COT reports for trend spotting?

GL and a Happy 2013!
This won't help but... I use the trend for trend spotting

COT seems a little bit delayed for me by the time it comes out. I love trading against the consensus on the forex factory trades section. Most traders seem to love trading against the trend, I love trading with it. It seems the more short retail traders get the more I want to be long.
  • #15,050
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:34am Jan 5, 2013 11:34am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I'm short gbpnzd and gbp is looking weak if that helps. Not sure about anything against the usd at the moment. Not sure about eur either, was getting strong and now looking weak, I'll look for evidence first.
GU, I'm watching if a daily bar closes below 1.60. Then, I'll consider going short, aiming at 1.55... Sound like a plan, doesn't it?
  • #15,051
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:51am Jan 5, 2013 11:51am
Quoting Forexgogo
GU, I'm watching if a daily bar closes below 1.60. Then, I'll consider going short, aiming at 1.55... Sound like a plan, doesn't it?
Yes, not bad but gbpaud and gbpnzd, possibly even gbpcad interest me more.
  • #15,052
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:02pm Jan 5, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yes, not bad but gbpaud and gbpnzd, possibly even gbpcad interest me more.
Not bad at all The best scenario is, entering short at fib 50 or higher -- I see a couple of nice areas in GBPNZD as well as GU. Either case, if that happens, the profit is going to be quite juicy for a mid-term trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu day.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #15,053
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:02pm Jan 5, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
This won't help but... I use the trend for trend spotting

COT seems a little bit delayed for me by the time it comes out. I love trading against the consensus on the forex factory trades section. Most traders seem to love trading against the trend, I love trading with it. It seems the more short retail traders get the more I want to be long.
I agree 100%. "Trend is your friend" is probably one of the most powerful quotes I ve ever heard about trading. Combined with "Cut your losses short and let your profits run" , this would ideally be the key to success in trading.

About the COT, what i meant was using it to spot/confirm a reversal/end of current trend, to get as much as possible of a new trend. Hope it makes sense.

GL!
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #15,054
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:12pm Jan 5, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I agree 100%. "Trend is your friend" is probably one of the most powerful quotes I ve ever heard about trading. Combined with "Cut your losses short and let your profits run" , this would ideally be the key to success in trading.

About the COT, what i meant was using it to spot/confirm a reversal/end of current trend, to get as much as possible of a new trend. Hope it makes sense.

GL!
Yes, it makes sense but I don't use it for the reasons pointed out earlier, too delayed for me. Everyone else can answer for themselves but I don't think any of the regular traders here use it, or haven't mentioned it much.

I would say the key to success in trading, if there is a single key, is getting your psychology right first. Learning to lose is more important than learning how to win because if you can't take regular small losses then you will sooner or later take a large loss. After that you are right, it is just a case of following the trend but I would add to it 'buy at support and sell at resistance in the direction of the trend' and then it's small losers and large winners.
  • #15,055
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:28pm Jan 5, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
'buy at support and sell at resistance in the direction of the trend' and then it's small losers and large winners.
Very well said. This is it, no more no less. You got the holy grail!
  • #15,056
  • Edited 2:42pm Jan 5, 2013 2:29pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Learning to lose is more important than learning how to win because if you can't take regular small losses then you will sooner or later take a large loss. After that you are right, it is just a case of following the trend but I would add to it 'buy at support and sell at resistance in the direction of the trend' and then it's small losers and large winners.
Thx for the reply. Hopefully if someone here uses COT, they'll see this discussion

Thats why i put those 2 as the ideal keys to success. Trend gives you the higher winrate (filtering out many bad trades/ poor reward trades) and entering on Retracements gives you the best R:R (small risk, high reward).

But i agree. That's just 1 of the 3 parts of trading - The Method . It doesn't do you any good without Mind and Money Management.

GL
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #15,057
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:20am Jan 6, 2013 5:20am
Personally I like to keep an open mind on playing the markets, S/R is certainly one way to play the markets, and its effective. Timed exits, fixed R/R etc etc are all extremely effective approaches if optimised for current market condition's and placed into a disciplined approach...

@ DaGrizlybull, Using COT can also be very powerful if adopted into a correct plan..You might want to take a look at MPB Journal..

He has a very affective, yet simple approach to using COT....Link below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=368433


Also see Shahab8b's Journal, He uses COT in a slightly different approach yet still extremely effective.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216247


There's no one right way to make money in the financial markets, there's just...your way.

Hope that helps.

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #15,058
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:51pm Jan 6, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey guys,

Haven't had the chance to read the thread yet, but from what i read in the first post, this is geared towards longterm trading (correct me if i am wrong).
Do you use COT reports for trend spotting?

GL and a Happy 2013!

Longer-term yes......but it can be applied towards whatever suits your needs. For example, I tend to have trades on average that last about 5 days or so. However, I also have shorter ones and ones that run months. (rare though.) I am sure that made things as clear as mud.......
  • #15,059
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:52pm Jan 6, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting j4d
Personally I like to keep an open mind on playing the markets, S/R is certainly one way to play the markets, and its effective. Timed exits, fixed R/R etc etc are all extremely effective approaches if optimised for current market condition's and placed into a disciplined approach...

@ DaGrizlybull, Using COT can also be very powerful if adopted into a correct plan..You might want to take a look at MPB Journal..

He has a very affective, yet simple approach to using COT....Link below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=368433


Also...
I don't know Shahab8b's stuff, but I can tell you personally that MyPipBull is the man, and a good trader......I would listen to him. However, if Jay says the other guy is good - then hes good.
  • #15,060
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:52pm Jan 6, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Very well said. This is it, no more no less. You got the holy grail!
It's amazing that it really is that simple.
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