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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #18,601
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:47am Jan 4, 2013 10:47am
Quoting pkimnyc
couple of things to note:

1. know when to trade and when not to trade.

2. if you are wrong with the market's direction then immediately accept the fact that you are wrong and wait for another opportunity to the direction of the market (reality check).

3. market almost always gives us a second chance, so be patient.

happy new year.
nice to see you again mate!
  • #18,602
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:02am Jan 4, 2013 11:02am
Quoting Mr C
I don’t trade by the rules of this system and respectfullywill not post my charts or comment about my setups but in my opinion for thethread to advance somebody needs to post the next steps or it’s over as far asanything new.

[font=Calibri][size=3]I tried several combinations of Moving averages 240, 60, 12…EMA, SMA LWMA…they all make pips if you know what you’re doing in the firstplace it’s just an indicator that you trade off of , I had made an indicator torun my test if it’s of any use to anyone else I defaulted...
We HAVE to overcome this tendency to always look for something NEW! You don't really need anything 'NEW'. The greatest challenge is within ourselves. Not in the strategy. The strategy itself is simple enough. We only tend to get consumed by this need to feel something exciting about the next big secret to the strategy. But in my opinion, the more boring it is, the better! We just need to consistently keep executing the same correct (boring!) setups everyday...keep nailing those pips...CONSISTENTLY. Unfortunately that demands extreme PATIENCE at times for those setups to finally show up. In the meantime out of boredom, we start searching for 'something' we feel must be missing in the strategy to create more excitement; to bring out the non-existent trade setups we seem to be missing; simply because we can see candles moving!. We need the 'high'. So we start forcing trades that are not there. keep getting stopped out. Keep feeling we must be missing something. And the vicious circle starts all over again. When all we really need is PATIENCE to execute the simple, boring, successful strategy.
PATIENCE PAYS. TRADE SAFE.
  • #18,603
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:37am Jan 4, 2013 11:37am
As an exercise for newbies. Post your answers to the following trade. Keep it simple. Lets see if we can all learn something together.
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  • #18,604
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:53am Jan 4, 2013 11:53am
My opinion
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  • #18,605
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:56am Jan 4, 2013 11:56am
this is a perfect example of ma alone isn't enough.

here's 1hr and 15 min charts.
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  • #18,606
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:09pm Jan 4, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting jordfx
As an exercise for newbies. Post your answers to the following trade. Keep it simple. Lets see if we can all learn something together.
There are many reasons to believe they would fail.
1. Trend line broken
2. Higher lows
3. If you look at H4 time frame, there is nice bounce from ADR low clearly visible.

Regards,

Hermann
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Wherever the fish are, that's where we go.
  • #18,607
  • Edited 12:32pm Jan 4, 2013 12:19pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting jordfx
We HAVE to overcome this tendency to always look for something NEW! You don't really need anything 'NEW'. The greatest challenge is within ourselves. Not in the strategy. The strategy itself is simple enough. We only tend to get consumed by this need to feel something exciting about the next big secret to the strategy. But in my opinion, the more boring it is, the better! We just need to consistently keep executing the same correct (boring!) setups everyday...keep nailing those pips...CONSISTENTLY. Unfortunately that demands extreme PATIENCE at...

(Mr C - I feel is right if you consider the way the thread has evolved).

LE1 who jumped ship – he also evolved in his trading during the last 7-8 months – you can see that in the charts and the postings – just need to re-read the posts and you can figure.

Some have taken ideas from here (which are not totally new) to their own area and started using and displaying – trying to create new ideas.

Furthermore – as a trader you should be evolving with the ever changing market dynamics.

The ideas have been outlined in the thread but the true question is – what is the system? Unless you have previous experience and adapt to your previous knowledge there is no stand-alone system as such. Some people have been on the thread for many months – yet the same people are asking the same questions and making the same mistakes?

I think the biggest issue (which many probably asking) – the thread has ‘kind of’ developed over time with various ideas – and that was the purpose of the thread – naturally people would be looking for various ideas.

Non analytical charts together with random arrows do not show a logical or understandable trading concept. What to do in trending or ranging markets, what about money management, what about seasonal considerations, what about event risk? Ema’s alone with some decorations of arrows does not make it an overall product – and certainly not what new traders need. Should be showing additional ideas and always evolving.
  • #18,608
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:21pm Jan 4, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting zander2034
My opinion
Hi Jordfx,

I dont understand your question, as is not part of a setup, I think, i would not enter a trade like that, but in any case, as I am a newbie and still not making profits, unfortunately only loosing, I am not the right person to unswer a question like that, but would like to know the answer, and why should we or shouldn't enter that trade.

Thx
Helee
  • #18,609
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:25pm Jan 4, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting jordfx
We HAVE to overcome this tendency to always look for something NEW! You don't really need anything 'NEW'. The greatest challenge is within ourselves. Not in the strategy. The strategy itself is simple enough. We only tend to get consumed by this need to feel something exciting about the next big secret to the strategy. But in my opinion, the more boring it is, the better! We just need to consistently keep executing the same correct (boring!) setups everyday...keep nailing those pips...CONSISTENTLY. Unfortunately that demands extreme PATIENCE...
i disagree with this statement.

the strategy mentioned in this thread is just a basic stuff that works in certain market condition.
market doesn't stay in one mode. it changes periotically: market moves in one direction, consolidates, pulls back, trends, and forms top and bottom consolidation. one needs to study these market behavior. study other tools that works in these phases.
  • #18,610
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:37pm Jan 4, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting zander2034
My opinion
Tnx Zander for sharing your thoughts. I've commented on your chart. In addition, using the weekly 10ema analysis, the PROBABILITIES could still have gone either way.
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  • #18,611
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:39pm Jan 4, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting zander2034
My opinion
Double bottom and divergence at ADR low and BRN.
A to strong rejection from this area to consider another short; also, the 50 fib ret rejection was reversed immediately.
RSI above MBL.
Thoughts are things
  • #18,612
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:43pm Jan 4, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting Mr C
I don’t trade by the rules of this system and respectfullywill not post my charts or comment about my setups but in my opinion for thethread to advance somebody needs to post the next steps or it’s over as far asanything new.

[font=Calibri][size=3]I tried several combinations of Moving averages 240, 60, 12…EMA, SMA LWMA…they all make pips if you know what you’re doing in the firstplace it’s just an indicator that you trade off of , I had made an indicator torun my test if it’s of any use to anyone else I defaulted...

Hi,

I tend to agree with you, I am still a newbie, (non-profit making) and agree witharyary statmant of market dynamics, it will be nice if newbies that end up making profit could create a pdf file with they viewscoments of trades they make and how they managed to make profits, this will give a good info for newbes as a whole, i dont know what i am doing that after seing the trend, it seems to go against me straight away, ending up to make loose trades. if that people can generous, it will be nice. On back testing i make profits, on live trades dont. so.... I dont know.

help is much appreciated.
thank you
Helee
  • #18,613
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:51pm Jan 4, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting jordfx
Tnx Zander for sharing your thoughts. I've commented on your chart. In addition, using the weekly 10ema analysis, the PROBABILITIES could still have gone either way.
also the fact that it is Friday afternoon gmt may have had something to do with it this alone would have not let me trade. i just choose not to trade friday afternoons, I cant see anything in the previous few candles apart from the resistance i had marked out

zander
  • #18,614
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:54pm Jan 4, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting pkimnyc
i disagree with this statement.

the strategy mentioned in this thread is just a basic stuff that works in certain market condition.
market doesn't stay in one mode. it changes periotically: market moves in one direction, consolidates, pulls back, trends, and forms top and bottom consolidation. one needs to study these market behavior. study other tools that works in these phases.
Tnx so much Pkimnyc for your inputs. Your thoughts are really well respected given your vast experience and market savvy. But there seem to be a slight disconnect with what you said here and what you posted earlier. You said

"couple of things to note:

1. know when to trade and when not to trade.

2. if you are wrong with the market's direction then immediately accept the fact that you are wrong and wait for another opportunity to the direction of the market (reality check).

3. market almost always gives us a second chance, so be patient."
  • #18,615
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:59pm Jan 4, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Helee
Hi,

[font=Arial][size=3]I tend to agree with you, I am still a newbie, (non-profit making) and agree witharyary statmant of market dynamics, it will be nice if newbies that end up making profit could create a [size=3]pdf file w[size=3]ith they viewscoments of trades they make and [size=3]how they managed to make profits, this will give a go[size=3]od info for newb[size=3]es as a whole[size=3], i dont [size=3]know what i am doing that after seing the trend, it seems to go against me straight away, ending up to...
Helee, I notice you have so few posts on this thread so far...with the issues you seem to be having, why not post most of your failing trades and see if we can't help each other out? Making of pdfs has already been done extensively by forexnerds to filter out the unnecessary posts and focus on the core dynamics of this strategy, so I don't think thats the issue here. We've all been where you are right now, and believe me you can get out of it and improve tremendously if just but share your trades and challenges. We're all here to help!
  • #18,616
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:05pm Jan 4, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting jordfx
Tnx so much Pkimnyc for your inputs. Your thoughts are really well respected given your vast experience and market savvy. But there seem to be a slight disconnect with what you said here and what you posted earlier. You said

"couple of things to note:

1. know when to trade and when not to trade.

2. if you are wrong with the market's direction then immediately accept the fact that you are wrong and wait for another opportunity to the direction of the market (reality check).

3. market almost always gives us a second chance, so be patient."...
not sure how it is a disconnect.

earlier post relates to the mindset of vast majority of traders.
it was for the people tend to trade all the time, biased in their own analysis, and the people who keep going against the market even after the reality proves that they are on the wrong side.

hope it makes sense.

it actually was a seperate issue and has nothing to do with certain strategy.
  • #18,617
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:07pm Jan 4, 2013 1:07pm
Last month I've made this analysis.
Admittedly, its only 30 days of data, but I think it proves well, why the time of trading is important and why the London session gets praised up here.

Some of you know this well allready, others may get an insight - I certainly did.
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Thoughts are things
  • #18,618
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:07pm Jan 4, 2013 1:07pm
The truth about this strategy (and any other strategy for that matter!), is that it doesn't have to work in every kind of market condition. The challenge is to IDENTIFY the trade conditions that favor whatever strategy you're using at any point in time, and WAIT FOR IT! We don't have to trade every undulation the market throws at us! Identify your edge. and WAIT FOR IT! That's the difficult part. THE WAITING. It gives birth to all sorts of other problems. That's why I strongly believe trading is about 20% strategy, 40% Money Management and 40% psychology.
  • #18,619
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:20pm Jan 4, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting jordfx
The truth about this strategy (and any other strategy for that matter!), is that it doesn't have to work in every kind of market condition. The challenge is to IDENTIFY the trade conditions that favor whatever strategy you're using at any point in time, and WAIT FOR IT! We don't have to trade every undulation the market throws at us! Identify your edge. and WAIT FOR IT! That's the difficult part. THE WAITING. It gives birth to all sorts of other problems. That's why I strongly believe trading is about 20% strategy, 40% Money Management and 40% psychology....
understanding every market conditions is important, imo.
that doesn't neccessarily mean you go trade everytime.
some people are cut out for range trades, some are comfortable trading trends.
one needs to choose and develop trading plans based on that. hence, understanding what tools are effective in which market conditions are important.
  • #18,620
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:21pm Jan 4, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting HermannII
There are many reasons to believe they would fail.
1. Trend line broken
2. Higher lows
3. If you look at H4 time frame, there is nice bounce from ADR low clearly visible.

Regards,

Hermann
Hey Hermann (love ya signature by the way hehehe)! Tnx for sharing. Very nice observations. Will comment further on sunday on this setup so others can have a go. Keep pipping...sorry... fishing...hehehe.
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