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  • #23,621
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:53am Jan 3, 2013 11:53am
I think yesterday was a game changer.

While the chart mode is still up on this 1440 minute chart, a close below the balck line today would definately signal a change in behavior. I would not be surpised if tomorrow turns out to be an Up bar on volume less than the previous two (ND) or Down bar on volume less than the previous two (Test).

I know that covers both sides LOL.

But if the trend is changing, then we should start to see Up intervals on decreasing volume.

And if the market is still bullish, we know that selling is resistance to any up move, and therefore the SM would want to Test before taking prices higher.

With all that said, we have a jobs report tomorrow so a low volume day might not even be in order.

Thoughts?
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,622
  • Jan 3, 2013 12:29pm Jan 3, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I think yesterday was a game changer.

While the chart mode is still up on this 1440 minute chart, a close below the balck line today would definately signal a change in behavior. I would not be surpised if tomorrow turns out to be an Up bar on volume less than the previous two (ND) or Down bar on volume less than the previous two (Test).

I know that covers both sides LOL.

But if the trend is changing, then we should start to see Up intervals on decreasing volume.

And if the market...
Thoughts? OK I'll bite.

While I would be the first to agree that a close below that 3160-3180 support zone is big for the bears I also know that 3100 should not go easily. The 3100ish area has been vitial resistance on the Daily chart as well as other TF's and should now provide some at least temporary support. An upbar tommorow? Perhaps but I cannot comment fully until I see today's bar print and close. A move back up to the 3160ish area would not surprise me one little bit though.

Again end of day today things should be a little clearer.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,623
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:03pm Jan 3, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting pres78
The 3100ish area has been vitial resistance on the Daily chart as well as other TF's and should now provide some at least temporary support.
Or maybe SM will use the FOMC news to blow down through 3100...

But then again what do I know. 3035 is my next 1 hour support level that I am watching. This should provide some support also... perhaps NFP will blow through that tommorow

I must say I love the volitility the past two days. Another 12 months of this would be perfect.

I am however still waiting for the days close to see if we hold below the recently blown through 3100 level but as I type this we are testing 50% of the Dec 12th 1 hour zone (3066) and then the next level would be 3035 which is the low of the Dec 12th zone and the high of a zone from Dec 6th so I would suspect some decent demand there. US session decided to make a move without London... Good stuff (gotta love the FOMC).

Added that big fat orange line at 3125ish which is 50% of today's 1hour zone... look left at the previous reactions at 3125... time and time again this stuff happens. I can't go back far enough on my webtrader platform at work to figure out what past UHV bar had a level at 3125 but I am sure I could find one. Volume at volume breakout 50% split. Lovely.

Look at how this very level stopped the Asia sell off giving the spring back to test 3160 at LO.

The markets are a thing of beauty.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,624
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:57pm Jan 3, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting pres78
...I must say I love the volitility the past two days. Another 12 months of this would be perfect. ...
"The trader who fears volatility, fears profits." WRB trader
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,625
  • Jan 3, 2013 4:54pm Jan 3, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting pres78
....Again end of day today things should be a little clearer.
Looks like a "gottcha" bar to me. Wide spread down bar on high volume closing on its lows.

We might see more selling tomorrow.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,626
  • Jan 3, 2013 5:05pm Jan 3, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Looks like a "gottcha" bar to me. Wide spread down bar on high volume closing on its lows.

We might see more selling tomorrow.
Yep I would call it effort to fall but hey Potato, Po-ta-to

Nice wide spread bar closing on it's low on high volume and below previous support / high volume. Lovely. Tommorow could well be down and then some retrace perhaps next week. We will see soon enough what the intention is. NFP tommorow so hopefully we have another good day and range.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,627
  • Jan 3, 2013 5:12pm Jan 3, 2013 5:12pm
Here's the 720 minute chart.

The trend has changed already. What we want are some narrow range up bars on volume less than the previous two (ND)........

Look at the power of that gap up sqaut. Volume is a little low, but its sort of like the opposite of bag holding.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,628
  • Edited 5:37am Jan 4, 2013 5:33am | Edited 5:37am
I was just blogging about this and wanted to throw the chart up here as well. More PnF but with a heavy volume element to it as well. This is something I've been looking at for a while as well as discussing with pres on and off. I've added some more bits and pieces so i'm not just copying straight from the blog

I spoke a lot about Point and Figure towards the end of 2012 with a view to using it a lot more during the coming year. In keeping with that idea, my first entry of the year was point and figure based.

On all my point and figure charts I use a 10 pip box size (every X or O represents 10 pips) and a 3 box reversal. So the smallest column you'll see on my charts is a reversal column of 3 boxes, 30 pips. For a long time before even adding the volume to the PnF charts I had considered these 3 box reversals as similar to No Supply (3 Os) and No Demand (3 Xs). It was merely a thought but then pres mentioned it to me as something he'd seen and it got me thinking a bit more. Once we got the volume feed working I soon discovered that a lot of these reversals do have volume less than the previous two. Like any signal, it has to be in the right area. So i'm obviously not going to take every one that comes along. Polar bears in hawaii etc.

With this in mind I placed a sell order yesterday that had three characteristics. 1. A No Demand reversal on the PnF chart, 2. A basic PnF sell after this ND. 3. It was breaking below a high volume zone carried over from my 1hr HLC chart. I'm sure pres has covered the 1hr zone but it's yesterday highest volume area for anyone that's interested.

Entry and stop mentioned on the chart, my stop has since been moved to 1.3060 above the last 3 box reversal. We are currently battling with 1.3000 which is a psych number as well as an ultra huge mega volume zone low from the 6th December as pres mentioned yesterday as well. I'd like to see the downside target of 2970 hit but we'll have to see how it plays out at this level. I'm not one for shapes but we're making lower highs and starting to form a wedge so it will break soon i'd imagine.
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  • #23,629
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:30am Jan 4, 2013 6:30am
Quoting KinsaleForex


Entry and stop mentioned on the chart, my stop has since been moved to 1.3060 above the last 3 box reversal. We are currently battling with 1.3000 which is a psych number as well as an ultra huge mega volume zone low from the 6th December as pres mentioned yesterday as well. I'd like to see the downside target of 2970 hit but we'll have to see how it plays out at this level. I'm not one for shapes but we're making lower highs and starting to form a wedge so it will break soon i'd imagine.
I attach 1hr USD index chart, as can be seen its gone almost exponentially up. The last few bars are increasing on lower volume and possible correction(or reversal below) to previous high.In light of this would you tighten your stops?
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  • #23,630
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:55am Jan 4, 2013 6:55am
Quoting Gxp1
I attach 1hr USD index chart, as can be seen its gone almost exponentially up. The last few bars are increasing on lower volume and possible correction(or reversal below) to previous high.In light of this would you tighten your stops?
My stop at 1.3060 is in the only place it can go if I just use the PnF chart. Considering NFP is soon i've thought about tightening stops but I don't really know where to tighten them too. I don't follow the index so it doesn't really add much to my analysis at the moment. I'll probably just leave it and see what NFP does, again, as per the PnF chart, I shouldn't be closing yet. So I won't.

You can send me a "told you so" if you're right
  • #23,631
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:07am Jan 4, 2013 8:07am
Quoting KinsaleForex
My stop at 1.3060 is in the only place it can go if I just use the PnF chart. Considering NFP is soon i've thought about tightening stops but I don't really know where to tighten them too. I don't follow the index so it doesn't really add much to my analysis at the moment. I'll probably just leave it and see what NFP does, again, as per the PnF chart, I shouldn't be closing yet. So I won't.

You can send me a "told you so" if you're right
Just another thought.if 3050 is a NT option barrier then if hit it would set of all the stops above it and presumably BB is gunning for it at the moment.
  • #23,632
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:25am Jan 4, 2013 8:25am
Quoting Gxp1
Just another thought.if 3050 is a NT option barrier then if hit it would set of all the stops above it and presumably BB is gunning for it at the moment.
well that didnt happen ie the stops firing off
  • #23,633
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:45pm Jan 4, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting Gxp1
Just another thought.if 3050 is a NT option barrier then if hit it would set of all the stops above it and presumably BB is gunning for it at the moment.
Just about got stopped out, small bit of profit. Stuck to the plan so that's the important thing. Still don't think it's overly strong but we'll see how it unfolds next week. On to the next one!
  • #23,634
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:17pm Jan 5, 2013 4:17pm
U guys R on the right path , more or less
U should nt take care about any single bar
There is more then just a high vol. Downbar

And that doeSent necseraly means strenght
Price doesent moves in bars

SM


Only cares about liquidity Just because a high vol. Downbar occurse
Doesent means SM bought into weakness , how about they offset a short
Position ? U dont know ! Simple as that


U need to recognize what happened before that action and what happened after that

Not just single bars ! There is more in that story then just a bar formation !
  • #23,635
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:26pm Jan 5, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Aeiou
U guys R on the right path , more or less
U should nt take care about any single bar
There is more then just a high vol. Downbar

And that doeSent necseraly means strenght
Price doesent moves in bars

SM


Only cares about liquidity Just because a high vol. Downbar occurse
Doesent means SM bought into weakness , how about they offset a short
Position ? U dont know ! Simple as that


U need to recognize what happened before that action and what happened after that

Not just single bars ! There is more in that story then just a bar formation...
You're right of course.

There is the background to think of, it is a huge part of VSA. A lot of people don't pay it enough attention.
  • #23,636
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:51pm Jan 5, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Intel
You're right of course.

There is the background to think of, it is a huge part of VSA. A lot of people don't pay it enough attention.
Yes sir!


But there is more to it then just background

Its. Background + Current action on a level of interrest!

An example

Some people mentioned an accumulation on EU recently
Right before price dropped! How is that possible?


Well u have to take into recog. Background wich was weak
And how price acted at the current level.

We had high vol. =activity to the downside
And weak rallies iw. Price didnt make any significant
Upside progress , so basically it was just a technical rally
Wich occures after huge selling , just to let u know
It has nothing to do with an SC as an SC just gets valid
After a successful test!

So in this case when we have huge vol. On a downbar
And the low of that bar gets takenout isnt a sign of strenght
Per se , its just selling

So the weak rallies give a clue that the weak holders are buying
Atm . As the SM arent doing anything atm .
Remember. SM needs liquidity to take action


WM drives price
  • #23,637
  • Edited Jan 6, 2013 2:43am Jan 5, 2013 7:49pm | Edited Jan 6, 2013 2:43am
Quoting Aeiou
Yes sir!

But there is more to it then just background

Its. Background + Current action on a level of interrest!................
Good points..


"vsa in COT".. Trail of the Smart Money
an alternate PA interpretation for M/T Swing/Position trading..

Euro Monthly-chonchy:
a graphical expansion +COT notations added for more clarity..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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CFTC COT 4 years:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trail of the Smart Money @11182012
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CFTC COT 4 years: updated @12312012
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trail of the Smart Money EURUSD H4 @01052013
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  • #23,638
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:05am Jan 6, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Aeiou
Yes sir!


But there is more to it then just background

Its. Background + Current action on a level of interrest!

An example

Some people mentioned an accumulation on EU recently
Right before price dropped! How is that possible?


Well u have to take into recog. Background wich was weak
And how price acted at the current level.

We had high vol. =activity to the downside
And weak rallies iw. Price didnt make any significant
Upside progress , so basically it was just a technical rally
Wich occures after huge selling , just to let u know...
It is background + whats happening now. In your little example, you talk about a SC after a weak background then price dropping further. This does not happen unless your evaluation of the SC is wrong.

In your example, the SC would probably be a climactic action bar. We have to look at the background to decide whether it is a SC or a CA bar. If we have a strong background it will be a SC and price will be rising shortly. If we have weakness in the background it will be a CA bar which shows further weakness.
  • #23,639
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:46am Jan 6, 2013 5:46am
Quoting cdndollar
Good points..


"vsa in COT".. Trail of the Smart Money
an alternate PA interpretation for M/T Swing/Position trading..

Euro Monthly-chonchy:
a graphical expansion +COT notations added for more clarity..
Attachment


CFTC COT 4 years:
Attachment


Trail of the Smart Money @11182012
Attachment

CFTC COT 4...
I like your outlook Sir

Cable looks downright weird for bulls to me, but I went long late Friday.

Will be interesting to see if the daily kicks in on Monday
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #23,640
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:27am Jan 6, 2013 8:27am
Quoting cdndollar
Good points..


"vsa in COT".. Trail of the Smart Money
an alternate PA interpretation for M/T Swing/Position trading..

Euro Monthly-chonchy:
a graphical expansion +COT notations added for more clarity..
Attachment


CFTC COT 4 years:
Attachment


Trail of the Smart Money @11182012
Attachment

CFTC COT 4 years:...
Excellent one of few posts we can see on ff
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