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  • #16,181
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:07am Jan 4, 2013 5:07am
Quoting T@rantula
Hello Markus,

Yes we have a potential shift from bullish to bearish context so we may see it. By the time I write this it has already happened. 3080 was rejected, the price is currently 3110. We have had a triple bottom which has been broken and that could mean a trend shift.

From this point we have a potential SELL at 3145-3165 with 3180 as SL. If the price goes above I wouldnt recommend sell. For SELL positions target should be 3040.

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What I was referring to,was that price did not go to the 1.3145/65 area you mentioned after your post ,unfortunately
  • #16,182
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:14am Jan 4, 2013 5:14am
Quoting FOURX
What I was referring to,was that price did not go to the 1.3145/65 area you mentioned after your post ,unfortunately
I Dont get the point. That was early in the morning. The target has been achieved. If you know how to trade, but you obviously dont you could have had a lot more entries on its way to 3040 but since trolling and bickering is your way of communication, stay away from this thread.
  • #16,183
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:05am Jan 4, 2013 8:05am
Huh what a NFP. I havent traded it for so long, tried this time. Here are the results was a scalp for some 20 pips. I almost thought about closing it in a loss. GOOD NFP numbers gave as RISK APPETITE and BAD UNEMPLOYMENT has been counted bad for USDx. Still this is a news reaction. I would like to see it beyond 3050 and Id place a sell around 3065 if we get there.

Still if we get a break of 3002-00 I will go for 2975.

I will possibly publish my NFP trading strategy before next NFP.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nfp.jpg Size: 127 KB

1min chart
  • #16,184
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:34am Jan 4, 2013 8:34am
Quoting T@rantula
Huh what a NFP. I havent traded it for so long, tried this time. Here are the results was a scalp for some 20 pips. I almost thought about closing it in a loss. GOOD NFP numbers gave as RISK APPETITE and BAD UNEMPLOYMENT has been counted bad for USDx. Still this is a news reaction. I would like to see it beyond 3050 and Id place a sell around 3065 if we get there.

Still if we get a break of 3002-00 I will go for 2975.

I will possibly publish my NFP trading strategy before next NFP.


Attachment
1min...
Missed the entry by 6 pips.... 3037 now.. Hope someone sold into this rally... This is a place where Id close or scale out depends of the entry size.
  • #16,185
  • Jan 4, 2013 9:05am Jan 4, 2013 9:05am
3065 exploited on 2nd swing. Closing it now +17.

I wont be entering on the 3rd swing if we get there again. If its broken i would monitor 3090-3100. For those of you who are holding the trade, scale out and put the stops to BE.
  • #16,186
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:43am Jan 4, 2013 11:43am
keep an eye on the 5mins chart guys.... doesn't it look familiar??? like the euro weekly/monthly chart... it might tell us what will happen to euro on bigger TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,187
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:54am Jan 4, 2013 11:54am
Quoting jaylovin
keep an eye on the 5mins chart guys.... doesn't it look familiar??? like the euro weekly/monthly chart... it might tell us what will happen to euro on bigger TF

That may be a mistake


Don't ever find patterns on less than 15 min and never compare them with higher TF


1h and higher TF are not shaken or troubled most times with high volatility and high volume entry or exit

you can find some better views from @T also
finding A M S
  • #16,188
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:19pm Jan 4, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting prashant7
That may be a mistake


Don't ever find patterns on less than 15 min and never compare them with higher TF


1h and higher TF are not shaken or troubled most times with high volatility and high volume entry or exit

you can find some better views from @T also

actually patterns and waves happen on all tf.. you can find wedges, flags 5 wave count on small TF's that resemble those on a bigger TF and there are similarities... the process of order flow is the same no matter what TF... i wish i had this 5 mins chart from long ago... it was exactly a 5 wave move down like we had from 1.51 down to 1.18... the 5mins chart then had a sharp ABC rallly with movement looking just like the move from 1.18 up to 1.4281...
  • #16,189
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:23pm Jan 4, 2013 2:23pm
Here guys, this is how I see it.

If we look the price after POST NFP we can get a picture. If u read my analysis pre NFP i have recommended SELLS all the way to 3040 yesterday and also today I have made it clear that we should aim for 3000. AND there is where is gets tricky.

Markets have been oversold and if we watch higher TFs we still have a room for downside. 3000 got rejected a couple of times and PRE NFP we had multiple rejections off 3025 so we could sell those mini rallies as scalp trades.

3002-3000 was crucial and we didnt have a candle close below it. That means it was tested but real buyers held the position until NFP. NFP RESULTS gave us RISK AVERSION. Numbers came slightly better then expected. For a further sell continuation it would be better ( I stated that today many times) that we get RED/ BAD numbers, that means that the markets would have crashed on bad news giving us 2975 and 2950 subsequently.

SO, the plan is. As i stated above on morning analysis if price gets above 3050 3090 is possible. 3065 gave us nice scalp trades but on 3rd or 3th swing it got broken so 3090 is possible. Watch for 3070 3090 and 3122 to the upside. Monday could give us a possible 3030 but lets see what will happen in Asia first.

Ofcourse i will analyze it early morning on Monday and post my final thoughts for that day.

For EX YU traders you can read the post in this blog
  • #16,190
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:22pm Jan 4, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting T@rantula
Here guys, this is how I see it.

If we look the price after POST NFP we can get a picture. If u read my analysis pre NFP i have recommended SELLS all the way to 3040 yesterday and also today I have made it clear that we should aim for 3000. AND there is where is gets tricky.

Markets have been oversold and if we watch higher TFs we still have a room for downside. 3000 got rejected a couple of times and PRE NFP we had multiple rejections off 3025 so we could sell those mini rallies as scalp trades.

3002-3000 was crucial and we didnt have...


Hi T.,


completely agree - CCI 14 on dailies was nearly -300. I have oftentimes advised to simply counter such a move at will, when CCI 14 goes above 250 or below -250. When such thing happens on daily TF the reward is outstanding


see my market profile analysis here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post6339890

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post6339921
  • #16,191
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:30pm Jan 4, 2013 3:30pm
Interesting stuff about CCI. It probably doesnt happen too often, but sure nice to pay attention to. Thanks for your insight mate.
  • #16,192
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:41am Jan 5, 2013 3:41am
Time to review some EW on USDJPY


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5243612

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5273131


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5273368

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5274808

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5274843

and finally

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...py#post5702343


and here is what we have today:


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  • #16,193
  • Jan 7, 2013 1:39am Jan 7, 2013 1:39am
Quoting jaylovin
actually patterns and waves happen on all tf.. you can find wedges, flags 5 wave count on small TF's that resemble those on a bigger TF and there are similarities... the process of order flow is the same no matter what TF... i wish i had this 5 mins chart from long ago... it was exactly a 5 wave move down like we had from 1.51 down to 1.18... the 5mins chart then had a sharp ABC rallly with movement looking just like the move from 1.18 up to 1.4281...
Its too easy to find a pattern and compare it with higher or lower tf when its in the middle of the chart but try to analyse it on the edge

then the real problem comes into place and all this 5min comparisons with monthly weekly are done only in the middle of the charts almost all the time its correct as the human tendency he looks for the similar patterns on the chart i just need to say one thing for that type

Wake up and trade in the present not in the middle of the chart
finding A M S
  • #16,194
  • Edited 4:25am Jan 7, 2013 4:15am | Edited 4:25am
First of all, MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL ORTHODOX CHRISTIANS!

Current market perspective shows us that bulls are still in charge as we can see on higher TFs. 3090 has been reached and h1 shows us bullish engulfer with a potential hammer on h4. Target for this move should be 3125 if 2995 holds.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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P.S. Analysis for EX YU TRADERS can be read HERE
  • #16,195
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:20am Jan 7, 2013 4:20am
eu.. 5 min long 3040..stop 3032
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  • #16,196
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:26am Jan 7, 2013 4:26am
Quoting danc
eu.. 5 min long 3040..stop 3032
Closed for 3 going to leave alone
  • #16,197
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:29am Jan 7, 2013 4:29am
long again at 3044.. stop 39
  • #16,198
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:32am Jan 7, 2013 4:32am
Valid entry Danc, for a further continuation 3061 needs to break and we will go to upper levels.
  • #16,199
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:41am Jan 7, 2013 4:41am
Yeahi am out T.. and reckon as you said above 55/60 ish would be better to enter..picture 15 min.. will watch a bit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,200
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:42am Jan 7, 2013 4:42am
Quoting T@rantula
Valid entry Danc, for a further continuation 3061 needs to break and we will go to upper levels.
Yeah.. u rite.. will wait see if i can get enter on 1 min at or around this point
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