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9-25% Monthly Enough?

  • #141
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:12am Jan 1, 2013 4:12am
I'm going to be accused of heresy here but I want to warn people against relying too much on EMA's / SMA's,

I battled with trying to use them for 2 years (see my DASR trading journal thread) but one has to remember that they are lagging indicators - they tell you what's happened in the past - NOT always a reliable indication of what's going to happen in the future

That's why I've moved on now to breakout trading using CCI as a main tool. But my pending trade breakout strategy is really another form of it - banking on a future event - not relying on old news!


Rgds

Jerry
  • #142
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:18pm Jan 1, 2013 3:18pm
CCI is a lagging indicator also... and you'll move on from using it as well. Like most every trader you'll keep moving on from indicator to method to indicator until you start to make a profit (never for most traders).

You'll stop moving on once you become profitable consistantly of course, but that's unlikely in the near or long term.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #143
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:40pm Jan 1, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting pt49
CCI is a lagging indicator also... and you'll move on from using it as well. Like most every trader you'll keep moving on from indicator to method to indicator until you start to make a profit (never for most traders).

You'll stop moving on once you become profitable consistantly of course, but that's unlikely in the near or long term.

And you have a better way?? Please show us your method, pray, of making "consistent" profits? I love it when total idiots like you make sweeping statements but have absolutely nothing positive to contribute!

Lets check out my trade explorer over the next couple of months and say by the end of February we'll see who's right, OK?

At the end of February you will apologise to me - or I will apologise to you of course if you're right and I'm wrong - OK?


P.S.: Shows how little you know about the CCI indi - you obviously don't know how to read it.
  • #144
  • Jan 1, 2013 3:48pm Jan 1, 2013 3:48pm
Cubbygood,

My apologies for taking over your thread!

I am going to start a new thread entitled "jerry's new session breakout strategy" and of course anyone is welcome to post who is genuinely interested in trading that type of strategy.


Good luck to - enjoyed your thread.

Rgds

Jerry
  • #145
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:11pm Jan 1, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting jmtini
And you have a better way?? Please show us your method, pray, of making "consistent" profits? I love it when total idiots like you make sweeping statements but have absolutely nothing positive to contribute!

Lets check out my trade explorer over the next couple of months and say by the end of February we'll see who's right, OK?

At the end of February you will apologise to me - or I will apologise to you of course if you're right and I'm wrong - OK?


P.S.: Shows how little you know about the CCI indi - you obviously don't know how to read it....
If you don't already incorporate it, take a look at price action trading around key price levels (support/resistance and supply/demand). This avoids lagging behind the action with an indicator and has really revolutionized the way I was trying to trade. I use absolutely no indicators anymore, just some horizontal lines. I don't have much of a track record yet as I'm doing this on the daily, but results so far are promising. No need to worry about the market changing either, as s/r and price action is applicable in any conditions.
  • #146
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:17pm Jan 1, 2013 7:17pm
OUCH!... but in this case PT49 is correct and that's no slight to you or where you currently are in this game. The CCI is not a bad indicator but it is still not the way to make consistant money. I used to be a CCI freak, even met Woodie and had a lot to do with that club for awhile but in the end, the CCI is just another way to see the market after the fact. Good Luck to you and your coming journey. Tj

Quoting jmtini
And you have a better way?? Please show us your method, pray, of making "consistent" profits? I love it when total idiots like you make sweeping statements but have absolutely nothing positive to contribute!

Lets check out my trade explorer over the next couple of months and say by the end of February we'll see who's right, OK?

At the end of February you will apologise to me - or I will apologise to you of course if you're right and I'm wrong - OK?


P.S.: Shows how little you know about the CCI indi - you obviously don't know how to read...
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #147
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:23pm Jan 1, 2013 10:23pm
Well, for what its worth, thanks TraderJoe.

1st jmtini try's to hyjack CubbyGood's thread by repeatedly infuring his method is better than CubbyGoods, tho he has NO Trade Explorer to back his claims up (just piss n wind), then when I post a valid argument he gets on my case, so I visited jmtini's thread and posted a valid comment, which he got all screwed up over, and promptly deleted along with other peoples posts he didn't like (he is such a tender soul it seems).

... and thank the Lord, he has banned me from all his threads. Oh, poor poor me, I just don't know what I'll do now. Pass me a knife, or a rope so I can end it all.

p.s. it seems jmtini is a "dobber" too. He has threatened to "report me to the Forum administrator"... thank God not all Pommies are like jmtini...

Below is my comment in his thread and his reply, both of which he promplty deleted along with the post I was answering to... Just goes to show what a sensitive kid he is... [quote]
---Quote (Originally by pt49)---

I think you are being a little sensitive and harshjmtini.

Constructive criticism is needed in almost every threadon these forums, and I think turvy was being contructive, his observations arerational and quite correct.


As for the "9 - 25% monthly enough" thread, Iposted a rational comment in that thread and without being quoted or named Ifeel I was invited to leave for pointingout the obvious... i.e. that his systems success rely's on only 2 things,defining the trend, and using an unrealistically long stoploss.


If we can't...

---End Quote---


Well, well I see that all of a sudden my thread is beinghijacked by a certain individual - it happens on many forums.


You sad, sick individual!


"pt49" or "Turveyd" - please refrainfrom this type of thing otherwise I am going to report you to the Forumadministrator.


You are banned from any of my threads of course.
[/QUOTE]
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #148
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:40pm Jan 1, 2013 10:40pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
How much % growth is enough per month trading?
[size=3]-10, 20, 50, 100% or more?
-What's Conservative and safe?
-What's needed for success?
-Why does it seem that all the systems you try dry out your bank account? Even the systems here on FF.
-What are you looking for in trading? Please let me know by writing a message. I would love to here your input.
-Trading is stressful but I feel like I've found a way to not be stressed out anymore while trading. You got to trust your system and trade less.

My System.
-I'm trading...
another brain dead thread...... 1% is enough if you have a large enough account .. more to another point what do you need to live on per month here in lies your answer.
The best indicator is price.
  • #149
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:42pm Jan 1, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting pt49
You sir are an idiot, and you don't have a dam clue what you are talking about.

You can prove me wrong by posting your trade explorer REAL account and show your 20-50% a week. If you can do it for 8 weeks I'll retract my statement.
i would love to also see this statement. I bet this guy has every bank looking to hire him. or maybe just a Saudi Oil sheik.
The best indicator is price.
  • #150
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:45pm Jan 1, 2013 10:45pm
he is starting a new thread just to prove he's an expert... his other threads already died LOL
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #151
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:59pm Jan 1, 2013 10:59pm
Quoting scfx
another brain dead thread...... 1% is enough if you have a large enough account .. more to another point what do you need to live on per month here in lies your answer.
Excellent answer. You get the gold cup.

The most stupid question any wouldbe trader can ask is "How much % gain per month is good?"

As you rightly pointed out, 1% a month is more than enough per month if you have a large enough account.

I can live fine n dandy on $5,000 a month, so all I would need is a $500,000 account and make 1% a month on it.

The other stupid question asked is "How many pips a month is good?"

The answer of course is that 100 pips a month can be much better than 1,000 pips a month... 100 pips a month is 5 pips/day, and on a big account that could equate to $250 a day, a nice return in my book, while 1,000 pips a month is 50 pips a day, but if those pips are only worth $0.10 each, the return is $5 a day.

As scfx rightly pointed out, the correct Question is "How much money do I need to average in profit per day?" ... then you work out how to find the cash to fund your account and a way to safely trade it without reducing the equity through fear or greed.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #152
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:06pm Jan 1, 2013 11:06pm
yw... anyone that can really trade is never threatened by any other trader or their coments period. This kind of reaction is a confession in itself. Also, anyone that opens a thread with an air of "I am a successful trader" places themselves on a trading pedestal higher than those that come there for help and instruction therefore it is not required that the visitor prove his trading expertise but it is required that the forum thread creator does. They are who's on trial here.

Nice to know you... adding you to my your buddy list if that's ok.
TJ


Quoting pt49
Well, for what its worth, thanks TraderJoe.

"pt49" or "Turveyd" - please refrainfrom this type of thing otherwise I am going to report you to the Forumadministrator

You are banned from any of my threads of course.
[/QUOTE]
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #153
  • Jan 2, 2013 12:09pm Jan 2, 2013 12:09pm
Hi everybody.

It's been a hard week for me. 2 losses in such a short time. Price on the EU has been bouncing so much lately because of the news. I should waited on trading till decision was made on fiscal cliff.

Anyway, I'm down about 11% and I'm not afraid to say it. You can call me a noob or whatever if you want but unexpected things happen.

So..moving on from here....

My client is fine with the 11% loss but if we get up to -20% then he will pull out with no hard feelings. I'll see what I can do with my trading. I Hope things turn arround in the coming days. I pulled 10% profit last month and now I'm down 20% right off the start of this month. It's been a long while since I've had a month like this with 2 losses so close together but then again there's been some unusually huge unsurity in the market causing erratic movement.

Continue to fallow along if you like to see if I can pull out of this...
  • #154
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:01pm Jan 2, 2013 3:01pm
Well done for sticking to your plan.

You are correct in saying you should have stood aside while the fiscal cliff crap is occuring, however you are wrong in saying the news is what caused your loss. We need news to move the market however as technical traders we don't trade the news. Without news announcements and erratic geopolitical situations/happenings the market will not move, and if the market don't move, we get whipsawed in narrow trading ranges.

Your loss occured simply because you were on the wrong side of the trade... period.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #155
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:02pm Jan 2, 2013 5:02pm
I will definitely follow along and see what happens.

I hope you can still pull it out. It is very strange to see 3 losses in proximity when your backtest shows 95% winning rate. What does you data tell you? Is this an outlier or has this happened before?

I'm rooting for you. I have respect for anyone trading with size. If the system works, you should be fine in time.
  • #156
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:09pm Jan 2, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Hi everybody.

It's been a hard week for me. 2 losses in such a short time. Price on the EU has been bouncing so much lately because of the news. I should waited on trading till decision was made on fiscal cliff.

Anyway, I'm down about 11% and I'm not afraid to say it. You can call me a noob or whatever if you want but unexpected things happen.

So..moving on from here....

My client is fine with the 11% loss but if we get up to -20% then he will pull out with no hard feelings. I'll see what I can do with my trading. I Hope things turn...
Good to see your honesty in your trading, especially given it's a live account.

EURUSD has been stuck in a range the last few weeks which can be expected during the holiday season.

It may be a good idea to journal what you learn here and mistakes made to avoid this reoccurring.

Another idea is to find some sort or indicator or management rule which can help reduce or filter this issue in future trades!

Personally I'm waiting for news and a break out of this range to kick of 2013.

I am still holding a long on the EURUSD, however I am trading this on a weekly TF.

I look forward to your further success!

Cheers,
Miike
  • #157
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:36pm Jan 2, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Hi everybody.

It's been a hard week for me. 2 losses in such a short time. Price on the EU has been bouncing so much lately because of the news. I should waited on trading till decision was made on fiscal cliff.

Anyway, I'm down about 11% and I'm not afraid to say it. You can call me a noob or whatever if you want but unexpected things happen.

So..moving on from here....

My client is fine with the 11% loss but if we get up to -20% then he will pull out with no hard feelings. I'll see what I can do with my trading. I Hope things turn arround...

Keep your Chin up Cubby, trading is never black and white. Try not to make it that way. Some times you will have stinker opening to a week and close out strong. other times its a week of master trades. (miners touch) As mentioned just stick to your plan and don't let it get to you mentality. as soon as you start to over think about making money and the losses you have made, the hole is already being dug. Just stay cool calm focused and concentrate on prime set ups that follow your system.

EURUSD is in a hella range as mentioned at the moment.
The best indicator is price.
  • #158
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:17pm Jan 2, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
How much % growth is enough per month trading?
[size=3]-10, 20, 50, 100% or more?
-What's Conservative and safe?
-What's needed for success?
-Why does it seem that all the systems you try dry out your bank account? Even the systems here on FF.
-What are you looking for in trading? Please let me know by writing a message. I would love to here your input.
-Trading is stressful but I feel like I've found a way to not be stressed out anymore while trading. You got to trust your system and trade less.

My System.
-I'm...
Your formula is designed to be disastrous. Why do you need sl 10times bigger? Learn from the best. The best traders wouldn't trade with sl 10times bigger because statistically it will lose. When trading we must base it on statistics not our emotion. I learned that the hard way. You would be better trading with 30tp and 30sl risking 1%. I just don't see the logic behind your trading plan. Before you lose all your friends money you better search for statistic books. Know that whatever you do the probability of losing more than 10 times in a row is always there but if you are trading 1:1 ratio you are at least tilting the odds in your favour, better if you can do 2:1.

What i am trying to convey here is the importance of having a robust system based on statistics. There will be many failures before you succeed but never go with what you 'think'(emotion) go with science(proven statistics). I have designed many systems which failed before i come to conclusion that i need to be serious and go with statistics not with emotion.

If you are a good trader 1:1 shouldn't be impossible. Design yourself a system which has good logic taking into consideration of 1:1 rr. Make it a complete system. Time of trading, when to close, rr, mm, when not to trade etc.
  • #159
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:19pm Jan 2, 2013 8:19pm
Quoting Supertrader9
Your formula is designed to be disastrous. Why do you need sl 10times bigger? Learn from the best. The best traders wouldn't trade with sl 10times bigger because statistically it will lose. When trading we must base it on statistics not our emotion. I learned that the hard way. You would be better trading with 30tp and 30sl risking 1%. I just don't see the logic behind your trading plan. Before you lose all your friends money you better search for statistic books. Know that whatever you do the probability is always there but if you are trading 1:1...
I don't see the point of fixed pip stop losses unless you're writing a private bot. Why don't people simply put the stop loss at a location that tells them they're simply wrong, and then change the lots you order to balance your risk to what's acceptable (1%, 2%, 5% etc)? For example if one price action setup requires a stop loss of 10 pips and you do $1 pips with $10 being 2% of your account balance, you can go ahead and order as is(ignoring spread here). But if you have a setup that requires a larger stop loss of 20 pips you might want to cut your position size in half to 50 cents a pip, so that you're still risking 2% or $10. Just be sure that the target is realistic and has an acceptable risk to reward ratio.
  • #160
  • Jan 2, 2013 10:03pm Jan 2, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting Kanzler
I don't see the point of fixed pip stop losses unless you're writing a private bot. Why don't people simply put the stop loss at a location that tells them they're simply wrong, and then change the lots you order to balance your risk to what's acceptable (1%, 2%, 5% etc)? For example if one price action setup requires a stop loss of 10 pips and you do $1 pips with $10 being 2% of your account balance, you can go ahead and order as is(ignoring spread here). But if you have a setup that requires a larger stop loss of 20 pips you might want to cut...
Did you read that i was trying to convey about statistics?? Of course you can create any kind of system which suits yourself. Some likes to have a fixed 1:1 rr so they can leave their platform after taking a trade. It is just simple trading with 1:1 ratio because you don't have to think about tp anymore. So yeah we must create a system which is best for us to achieve consistency. To achieve consistency in trading is not easy so i try to do something which would make it easier for me to be consistent.
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