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The Trader Behind the Trade™

  • #41
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:16am Jan 1, 2013 9:16am
Trading will resume tomorrow.

finally


Let's get back to the routine
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  • #42
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:24am Jan 1, 2013 9:24am
Quoting TPOTrader
to you and everyone else here.

may all your losses belong to me....uh..i mean....

god bless us everyone!



50%.....why so conservative....was that a typo did you mean 500%

Just joking......

Yes, may GOD bless us all.....
  • #43
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:12am Jan 1, 2013 10:12am
Quoting 4xPIPAHOLIC



50%.....why so conservative....was that a typo did you mean 500%

Just joking......

Yes, may GOD bless us all.....
100% gain is possible if I'm aggressive or I have a very good year.

50% is more reflective of average year and my new "conservative" MM. I prefer not to aim too high so i can brag about it when i reach the goal at the end of the year
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  • #44
  • Jan 1, 2013 10:36am Jan 1, 2013 10:36am
Quoting TPOTrader
100% gain is possible if I'm aggressive or I have a very good year.

50% is more reflective of average year and my new "conservative" MM. I prefer not to aim too high so i can brag about it when i reach the goal at the end of the year
Yes, I thought about it that you did it to brag about it......

Of course it is possible.......compounding 4% a month.....is 60%....very very doable.....

And if you have a very solid strategy you can up your position just a bit...... not too much....there we have 100%...

A lot of traders(me too initially) used to think that the return solely depends on your risk.....but now I know that is not the case.....

Risk can always be capped....return is not.....but that depends if you have reached the level where you have developed a strategy to do this....

Good luck....I am sure you will pull it through....easily....
  • #45
  • Jan 2, 2013 12:48am Jan 2, 2013 12:48am
It's so annoying to go to the Trade Explorer leaderboard and see these great returns, only to find that they are down for "all time" return.

Is it so hard to have a leader board filter to see trade explorers that are up for "all time" return? So then I don't have to waste my time checking it myself.

NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #46
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:49pm Jan 2, 2013 3:49pm
Lately I've been listening to this song.

It gives me a high for some reason

"up before the run rise quicker than the drug dealers"

Inserted Video
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  • #47
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:35am Jan 4, 2013 1:35am
Did some minor adjustment to the risk management. Reducing overall leverage to about 1:10 per trade.

This resulted in increased max historical drawdown by 0.06%, but yielded about 100% more in return over +1000 trades. Max monthly historical drawdown also reduced by 5%.

A great trade off in my opinion.

Also, here's to transparency! Full view to account equity $.
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  • #48
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:38am Jan 4, 2013 7:38am
Awesome, I really like this thread, you are one of the few (very few) traders who put their full live account out for people to see. I am very interested in how you are determining optimal leverage for your portfolio. Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion or the Efficient Frontier?
  • #49
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:52am Jan 4, 2013 7:52am
Awesome progress man I started live this year, up 7% first week of jan and I hope to continue doing good, I want to do this full time so badly.. Been demo and live trading for about a year and blew a few small $250 accounts and recently became 80% profitable thru demo trading.. Will be following your journal ! I would do trade explorer but my broker isn't mt4 and not available
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #50
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:57am Jan 4, 2013 7:57am
Quoting BobGnarly
Awesome progress man I started live this year, up 7% first week of jan and I hope to continue doing good, I want to do this full time so badly.. Been demo and live trading for about a year and blew a few small $250 accounts and recently became 80% profitable thru demo trading.. Will be following your journal ! I would do trade explorer but my broker isn't mt4 and not available
MT4 is not required for a trade explorer.
  • #51
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:04am Jan 4, 2013 8:04am
Quoting PamExx
MT4 is not required for a trade explorer.

Hmm I thought it was, my broker is not on the list tho.. I guess I will have to request it be added
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #52
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:31am Jan 4, 2013 10:31am
Just got a reply back, it has to be mt4.
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #53
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:57pm Jan 4, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting PamExx
Awesome, I really like this thread, you are one of the few (very few) traders who put their full live account out for people to see. I am very interested in how you are determining optimal leverage for your portfolio. Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion or the Efficient Frontier?
Heard of kelly but not efficient frontier. Will read up on that
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #54
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:01pm Jan 4, 2013 3:01pm
Asked FF if they would consider allowing open trades to be privatize, because i'm just paranoid that way

I got this response

"We figured if people want to show their Explorers, they will have to do it
honestly. While there will be legitimate traders who use it properly and
have no intention of fooling people, there will be those that try. So we
have remained consistent with allowing traders to hide some sensitive
information to a point and anything further, Trade Explorer can be made
private. We want Trade Explorer to benefit traders for their own use. I hope
this shines some light on the issue. If you have any questions or concerns,
please do not hesitate to contact me directly."

I can understand for those who connect explorer via MT4, you could probably cheat, maybe? i don't know.

But my explorer is connected via a third party access to fxtrade (java) platform. No way to cheat here.

Unless FF can change this, I will make my explorer private during trading sessions and make them public agains once all trades are closed.
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  • #55
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:14pm Jan 5, 2013 1:14pm
Inserted Video
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  • #56
  • Jan 6, 2013 6:52am Jan 6, 2013 6:52am
Tomorrow begins the official full trading week of 2013! I'm sure all of us are finishing the final preparation. Here's to profit and losses

Inserted Video
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  • #57
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:31am Jan 6, 2013 10:31am
Quoting TPOTrader
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk1PfbYjZy4
So funny, from the 6 books that it shows I have read 5 of them(and the sixth one on PDF). All are very good and my favorite like I am mentioning on my profile is "Millionaire Traders".

All definitely worth reading....the one he has open reading is "Stock Market Wizards" by Jack Schwagard.....of course all but 1 of the interviews in the book are with stock traders....not Fx.....

Nice clip.....so true.....
  • #58
  • Jan 6, 2013 4:44pm Jan 6, 2013 4:44pm
Like success, your equity curve goes through many phases. And just when you think you've figured it out, the market will make you feel like a student again.

A lot of times, we try hard to make the equity curve look like what we "think" an acceptable growth should be; straight line with little bumps. But in reality, you will encounter drawdown periods that will make you doubt your system.

So many traders try to aim for that "straight line" growth perception. They employ martingale, grid, hedging etc. I think traders will be better off if they focus more on the "organic" growth of their equity rather than the superficial "look".

http://blog.zerodean.com/wp-content/...vs-reality.jpg
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  • #59
  • Jan 6, 2013 9:24pm Jan 6, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting TPOTrader
Like success, your equity curve goes through many phases. And just when you think you've figured it out, the market will make you feel like a student again.

A lot of times, we try hard to make the equity curve look like what we "think" an acceptable growth should be; straight line with little bumps. But in reality, you will encounter drawdown periods that will make you doubt your system.

So many traders try to aim for that "straight line" growth perception. They employ martingale, grid, hedging etc. I think traders will be better off if they...
very very encouraging thankyou
thankyou gregwilson
  • #60
  • Jan 8, 2013 4:54pm Jan 8, 2013 4:54pm
Been experimenting with various drawdown recovery money management. Had several scenarios.

Ultimately I decided to implement one. Ended up increasing my max DD from -31% to -36%, but gains were increased too. It's a delicate balance between reducing drawdown and increasing gains. I guess that' what the aim of the holy grail system is...

http://d2bm3ljpacyxu8.cloudfront.net...20recovery.jpg

Hypothetical backtest results:
Backtest mode: manual
Slippage: -1 pip slippage applied to all trades
Max drawdown: -36.72%
Longest drawdown period: 78 trading days
Avg. winning trade: 3.22%
Avg. losing trade: -3.40%
Avg. monthly loss: -10.44%
Avg. monthly gain: 17.15%
Max losing month: -19.32%
Max winning month: 44.07%
Avg monthly gain over 3 years: 10.47%
Avg yearly gain over 3 years: 133.33%
Profit factor: 1.14
Trade win%: 55.73%

I think if i ever reach -50% drawdown. It would mean significant changes to the trading system (i.e back to the drawing board).
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