Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

This is not proof of anything. Anyone can take a chart and label what they "think" happened.

Not to keep the pressure on you, but I kind of realized where the text is supposed to be for the chart you posted.

I don't know the TF, but it looks like 4-8H chart? If so, then on every single bar you see, retails are trading. The entire retail world doesn't wait for one moment to jump in, they are constantly losing money. (Most, not all.) Also, I would think profit would be taken earlier than the area you have selected for where these traders move their stop to BE. The funny thing is, is that price is almost 200 pips down at that point.

Why do you assume that all retail traders trade the same direction at the same time?

Now, again, why would brokers or whoever do such a thing? To collect spreads or to transfer equity from one account to another? If you say spreads, then once the retail, or anyone really, have entered their position, it doesn't matter when they exit. The broker will collect the spread whenever that happens. Now, if you say to transfer equity, you have to think about how much money they'll be getting from the noobs, and how much money it would take for price to move to the level where they can acquire money. Seems like they would be hedging the profits they seek. (Maybe even losing money.)

The broker can manipulate what the chart shows (it's their program, after all), but the broker won't manipulate price through buying/selling just to rip off some retail traders.

Cant provide more details as I do not have them.

Trading based on probabilities. Structure of the market changes and are subtile and your brain has to detect. I have structure in my head but always aware that is hypotetical and allow for error and evolution.

Only 'proof' i have is my performance which is almost no losers last 2 years when i cristalised this method and many more years statistics.


sorry cant substantiate more my claims.

WHICH PAIR do we short in 3 hrs!?Guys, In just 3 hours forex mkt starts trading. The news is almost confirmed. No fiscal cliff deal is ready in time. WHAT PAIR IS THE BEST ONE TO SHORT. i AUTOMATICALLY started to think of doing the euro/usd pair but now there are tons of stories that europe will slide into a depression if we do not cut them a lot more slack. 2 guys living in europe posted that the news FROM europe is more authentic and its much worse than we all think here in the USA. So what do we do? Short the euro and the usd? or go long both of them? Im not convinced that bad news for america will strengthen the dollar. Should be gaps down to tell the story at 6pm EST, YES?

Exactly.

The structure of the market changes? Are you serious? Like, there's a new hierarchy for a few moments that one has to detect through indicators or something?

clarification = leading indicators change. this is where fundamentals are essential. I swing trade only. Intraday only for fun.

Hello
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Someone told me I should sign the online news service.
What do you think about that advice?
Some of you signed any news service?
What they think is best?
I apologize for diverting me a bit of the theme.
thank you
best regards
Julio Bento

sorry for the late reply..... news services, I don't think are very useful I mean is not like they will tell you some secret that other analyst are not privy to. However being informed in order to make better decisions is always good. I use Twitter, it is free and a great source of info. Follow forex live, the FED, BOE, bank of japain RBA etc. you will get very good information, depending on who you follow.

got my attention, thanks for sharing!

never mind!

Shame you stopped this valuable thread mate

I didn't think anyone else was interested in my brain storming and rants, there was a lot of great contributions from other traders.