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9-25% Monthly Enough?

  • #121
  • Dec 30, 2012 2:38am Dec 30, 2012 2:38am
Quoting Kanzler
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #122
  • Dec 30, 2012 5:15am Dec 30, 2012 5:15am
[quote=forexmnstr;6328012]
Quoting Cubbybgood

I think your TP is small because you dont want to risk your friends account ... but placing a big SL will risk it more ... so dont bother placing SL ... just keep feeding your account with money whenever market is against you and just wait till your TP triggers up ... just my thoughts though ...
This is an interesting concept but there will be some trades that take months to return in profit or may not return at all. There is a possibility that this could work but it would need to be tested. I think that DD from bad trades would take all the profit gained but this is just speculation.
  • #123
  • Dec 30, 2012 5:56am Dec 30, 2012 5:56am
Quoting forexmnstr

I think your TP is small because you dont want to risk your friends account ... but placing a big SL will risk it more ... so dont bother placing SL ... just keep feeding your account with money whenever market is against you and just wait till your TP triggers up ... just my thoughts though ...
hehehe
  • #124
  • Dec 30, 2012 5:57am Dec 30, 2012 5:57am
[quote=Cubbybgood;6328300]
Quoting forexmnstr

This is an interesting concept but there will be some trades that take months to return in profit or may not return at all. There is a possibility that this could work but it would need to be tested. I think that DD from bad trades would take all the profit gained but this is just speculation.


Hi Cubbygood

Here's my 2 pence worth:

For most of us a 100 pip SL is inconceivable and really in my view unnecessary IF you set your trade up at the right time and at the right place. I really think that a 25 pip ("disaster net") SL is adequate 99 % of the time.
Take a look at that last Thursday trade. I use an "overbought/oversold" arrow indicator that gave a sell signal at 12.45pm (GMT). I don't trust the arrow all the time but after 5 or 6 candles it becomes a lot more trustworthy. Certainly it negated against entering any kind of a buy trade at that time. Secondly price action had banged against the 3300 trading zone twice (an area 15 pips either side of the BRN and very reliable indicator). Thirdly, if you use the 2.30pm (GMT) pending trade strategy (set a pending 15 pip buy and a 15 pip pending sell trade at the close of the 2.30pm 15 min candle with a 25 pip SL) you would have caught the sharp down-move. I've started to use the pending trade strategy in this way last week only and picked up 55 pips in a hurry!

Rgds

Jerry
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  • #125
  • Dec 30, 2012 6:23am Dec 30, 2012 6:23am
[quote=jmtini;6328332]
Quoting Cubbybgood



Hi Cubbygood

Here's my 2 pence worth:

For most of us a 100 pip SL is inconceivable and really in my view unnecessary IF you set your trade up at the right time and at the right place. I really think that a 25 pip ("disaster net") SL is adequate 99 % of the time.
Take a look at that last Thursday trade. I use an "overbought/oversold" arrow indicator that gave a sell signal at 12.45pm (GMT). I don't trust the arrow all the time but after 5 or 6 candles it becomes a lot more trustworthy. Certainly it negated...
Good concept. I do not trade like this anymore. It's to risky in my mind because it's really difficult to always pinpoint when price will pivot. It doesn't matter what indicators I use I think most support resistance points are overrated. S/R give us an idea where price will move in the future but still to get it right over 60% of the time is a difficult task. I know a few people that trade like this and do very well but this type of trading is not for me.

Good concept though. Good luck!
  • #126
  • Dec 30, 2012 6:58am Dec 30, 2012 6:58am
Hi everyone,

Here is the system!


-I mainly just use the 13 ema.

-5 time frames. 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 min, 15 min, 5 min.

-Price has to be above ema for Long trades and below for Short.

-At least 3 out of the 5 time frames have to be in trend agreement in order for us to look for an entry. The more time frames in agreement the more likely we will get our 10 pips. ( I like at least the 1 hour or 4 hour to be one of the 3 time frames in agreement.)

-TP 10 pips

-SL 100 pips.


-2 different entry's.

Look for a pull back on ether the 5 or 15 minute time frame. Pull back means that price falls back into the 13 ema and actually touches it. This is where we want to enter our trade.

Look for price to cross and close above or below 13 ema on ether 5 or 15 minute time frame. Enter next candle after price close above or below.


Study pictures for more explanation....
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  • #127
  • Dec 30, 2012 7:01am Dec 30, 2012 7:01am
Fridays trade on GU.
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  • #128
  • Dec 30, 2012 7:23am Dec 30, 2012 7:23am
The more time spend in front charts the better the entry. The best entry's usually can be found spending no more then an hour in front of charts when conditions are met.
  • #129
  • Dec 30, 2012 10:56am Dec 30, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Cubbybgood
The more time spend in front charts the better the entry. The best entry's usually can be found spending no more then an hour in front of charts when conditions are met.
Excellent Cubby

Thank you very much. Will try it. I think it's better if conditions are met to trade in London Session. Big reversals like last Thursday usually happens in NY Session IMHO.

Cheers
  • #130
  • Dec 30, 2012 7:45pm Dec 30, 2012 7:45pm
Remember all. I take only 1 trade a day. I suggest you do the same. Take only the best trades when all 5 time frames are in agreement till you understand the system.

I don't want people to come back and say this system sucks because they are not trading it like it was ment to be traded.
  • #131
  • Dec 30, 2012 9:54pm Dec 30, 2012 9:54pm
I am of the opinion that this setup will work at almost any time of the day given that it's an entry with the trend looking for only 10 pips while using a 100 pip SL... if you change the SL to 10 pips, it's probably like any other trade you care to take... 50% successful.

What I'm saying is that the system rely's the probable fact that the stop will only get hit 5 - 10% of the time... this has more bearing on the success of the system than any other factor (the trend, 13ema etc).

Then again, I may be totally wrong.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #132
  • Dec 30, 2012 11:03pm Dec 30, 2012 11:03pm
How long did you backtest this system? How many pairs did you test? Just curious.
  • #133
  • Dec 31, 2012 12:45am Dec 31, 2012 12:45am
Quoting Caillou
Excellent Cubby

Thank you very much. Will try it. I think it's better if conditions are met to trade in London Session. Big reversals like last Thursday usually happens in NY Session IMHO.

Cheers

I tend to agree with you there!

That's why I like my pending trade system. It's like hedging your bets and the gap is big enough to ensure that only one of the orders get filled

Anyway to each his own I say!

Rgds

Jerry
  • #134
  • Dec 31, 2012 5:26am Dec 31, 2012 5:26am
People can think what they want of the system. They can also trade it how they want as well. We all know that 50% of success comes from the system the rest is the trader. I should have never put up the system because people begin to dissect it with scepticism. I did not back test the system. Just forward tested it for over a year.

I've said this before. Just because a system has been working for me for a year does not mean it will continue. Market conditions are always changing. My hopes are high but I always have to keep an open mind.
  • #135
  • Dec 31, 2012 11:34am Dec 31, 2012 11:34am
Quoting Cubbybgood
People can think what they want of the system. They can also trade it how they want as well. We all know that 50% of success comes from the system the rest is the trader. I should have never put up the system because people begin to dissect it with scepticism. I did not back test the system. Just forward tested it for over a year.

I've said this before. Just because a system has been working for me for a year does not mean it will continue. Market conditions are always changing. My hopes are high but I always have to keep an open mind.
Hi Cubby,
Thanks a lot for being willing to share your system. I know that low targets with large stops can produce good results if the winning percentage is as high as this one.

I'm not sure how you personally monitor the 5 timeframes (whether you quickly flick through, have some MTF indicator or even multiscreens), but I just wanted to make a humble suggestion which may help you or others. If you open a 5 minute chart and place the following MAs on there:

13ema (13ema on the 5min chart),
39ema (equivalent to 13ema on a 15 minute chart)
78ema (equivalent to 13ema on a 30 minute chart)
156ema (equivalent to 13ema on a 1 hour chart)
624ema (equivalent to 13ema on a 4 hour chart)

Then you can see all the 5 timeframes '13ema' on one single chart, the 5 minute chart, and very quickly see whether price is above or below these mas. It also very helpfully allows you to see pullbacks to the emas for better entries.

Once again thanks for sharing your system. Ignore the haters and I hope it continues to be profitable for you and your (sounds like a good!) friend.

Noodles
The best trade I ever made was my SIN for Jesus' RIGHTEOUSNESS.
  • #136
  • Dec 31, 2012 11:44am Dec 31, 2012 11:44am
Quoting jimmynoodles
Hi Cubby,
Thanks a lot for being willing to share your system. I know that low targets with large stops can produce good results if the winning percentage is as high as this one.

I'm not sure how you personally monitor the 5 timeframes (whether you quickly flick through, have some MTF indicator or even multiscreens), but I just wanted to make a humble suggestion which may help you or others. If you open a 5 minute chart and place the following MAs on there:

13ema (13ema on the 5min chart),
39ema (equivalent to 13ema on a 15 minute chart)
78ema...
I just wanted to point out that you should be careful if your strategy is sensitive to the EMAs - averages on larger charts aren't equivalent to the same period ones on shorter time frames. For example, on the EUR/USD right now a 7 day moving average on the daily chart gives a value of 1.6184. If you dial down to a 1 hour chart and look at the same period, which would be 7*24 = 168 period moving average, you get an entirely different value at 1.61647. The data sets are not the same.
  • #137
  • Dec 31, 2012 11:55am Dec 31, 2012 11:55am
Quoting Kanzler
I just wanted to point out that you should be careful if your strategy is sensitive to the EMAs - averages on larger charts aren't equivalent to the same period ones on shorter time frames. For example, on the EUR/USD right now a 7 day moving average on the daily chart gives a value of 1.6184. If you dial down to a 1 hour chart and look at the same period, which would be 7*24 = 168 period moving average, you get an entirely different value at 1.61647. The data sets are not the same.
Yeah thanks for that. I knew they wouldn't be exact but they give a pretty good ballpark figure.

Cheers for input.

Noodles
The best trade I ever made was my SIN for Jesus' RIGHTEOUSNESS.
  • #138
  • Dec 31, 2012 11:59am Dec 31, 2012 11:59am
Quoting jimmynoodles
Yeah thanks for that. I knew they wouldn't be exact but they give a pretty good ballpark figure.

Cheers for input.

Noodles
No problem, as long as it works for you.
  • #139
  • Dec 31, 2012 12:18pm Dec 31, 2012 12:18pm
Happy New Year Everyone!!!
May 2013 be full of Health, Happiness and Pips!!!
  • #140
  • Jan 1, 2013 1:55am Jan 1, 2013 1:55am
Hi everyone

Not a good day for EU traders yesterday

Well my European session/NY session pending trade breakout strategy worked nicely again yesterday even on EURUSD (worked absolutely perfectly on GU, EJ, CJ) - would have given Cubbygood his 10 pips without any sweat whatsoever.

The great thing about it is that one's trading the breakout which means 10 -20 pips is a cinch.

But everyone has his own ideas - they have to work though - that's the problem


Rgds

Jerry
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