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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,701
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:01am Dec 29, 2012 4:01am
Quoting fti
Hi,

basically,

1. i am experimenting the retail arena, on what's available for retail traders. First from Home base, which is sg, where i have reach on them, if arbitration issues arise. I not want deal with sales peeps on arbitration matters.

2. i am used to interbank direct system, and know thru commission brokers. commission is a big consideration due to the activities. Carry cost also is a factor.

3. Being retired common man, i have no access to back office operations, and therefore when brokers cannot package their products on 1 page...
u mentioned before,in interbank the spread is about 10 pips and on retail platform like on oanda we usually get the spread like 1pip or less.i did compare the prices i have on my platform with say bloomberg or cnbc,they are exactly same to the pip and move exactly.can u clarify what i am missing here.
My second question is what is prediction? unable to get around the idea of prediction and forecasting and what we do in the market.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,702
  • Edited 5:03am Dec 29, 2012 4:06am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting drzakir123
u mentioned before,in interbank the spread is about 10 pips and on retail platform like on oanda we usually get the spread like 1pip or less.i did compare the prices i have on my platform with say bloomberg or cnbc,they are exactly same to the pip and move exactly.can u clarify what i am missing here.
My second question is what is prediction? unable to get around the idea of prediction and forecasting and what we do in the market.regards

correction. you understand wrong.

the interbank not quote trading prices in 10 pips.
Its quoted in 2pips. for cable 3 is average.

Generally the indicated prices is quoted on reuter "ASAP" page.
10 pips is standard indicative.
No one interbnk quotes running prices.
Is quoted to you when you ask for dealing prices.
Then they show you their shade in 2 pips spreads.
I have not seen reuter avail the use of page ASAP outside institutions.
one need pay for that page.


To predict is to have bias. This normally comes from having analysed be it technical or fundemental analysis.
One can forecast, any one who trades will have some form of bias.( opinions if you like)
but bias is only expectations. There is limitation to that bias.
When things happening in the now, creates situations where the bias is tested.Then damagecontrol is paramount for survival.
You must have heard before, that markets can be irrational and reamain in that state. it can stay in that state mostly longer than your finances can support sometimes, esp if you are highly geared(leveraged). So pro traders want to stay in the flow of things than a bias, is easier on the nerves and less fears.

no one wants buys tops and sell bottoms, but these are mostly stops or desperations.

regards

With robust money management of trade sizes, one can use the bias to advantage and damage control to protect against the ego directing for death battles.
Ability to knows ones limits emotionally and financially, is key to finding that balance.

let me try see if i can explain this in medicine terms for your better understanding.
when a patience come to a doctor declare pragnancy.
The Dr does test determine if the test signals can verify, yes? That's analysis.
then if all good, then the expectation is after gestation period the baby will be here.
that bias due to the test results, the expectatons.(predictions)
But the Drs need still have constant monitoring of the situations.
to respond to any situations that may arise.......................

I think you can fig it out.what i trying to say
Is the same in markets. With good experience one can analyse and develop a bias.
But the bias must be managed, managed within one's threshold of skill and pain.( fears , affordability to risk.)
When you have much foreign capital is easier manage. On tight financials can cause fear and disorientation.

Mr. dog whisperer calls it rules,limits and boundaries.
Discipline and Obedience.
In banking , we call it risk prudence.
  • #37,703
  • Edited 6:35am Dec 29, 2012 5:32am | Edited 6:35am
OK for those who cannot understand.

Let me try explain again.

Let say we want take a bus go north.
Lets say we board the bus and it reverses south.
For damage control the prudence thing to do is to dismount the bulk of the team 1st chance one gets?
and leave some one on board.
Then the bulk walks down south with a watch out for the bus with the someone on board come again going north?
with someone on board he can stop the bus for all board, or alert the bulk of the bus?

This only analogy.
There many strategies available to traders, many tricks in the bag.
As ones experience grows the amount of skills and options increases.

i hope i articulate clearly.
bias is bias, trade strategies must relate to the NOW.
Pain threshold must not be the point of disorientation or fear.
Managing is the key.


regards

If remember , someone sold similar analogy for 1 million usd.
you get for free.
i not even get a feather for it.
ok lets make it 3000 pages, so that peeps not hard working cannot find it.
actally i gave you better one.
is free.
won't tell where, but is in thread.
want 10 million.
  • #37,704
  • Dec 29, 2012 5:59am Dec 29, 2012 5:59am
Inserted Video
  • #37,705
  • Dec 29, 2012 6:27am Dec 29, 2012 6:27am
Quoting simpleman
Signs of God are everywhere, one has to open the eyes and look and look at the right place otherwise will find monkeys.

Found great video you need couple of hours, still not believe in God?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...TJoMVM#t=5963s
thanks for the video.interesting,here is what koran has to say about previous civilizations.


[Quran 40:21] Have they not traveled in the earth and seen how was the end of those who were before them? Mightier than these were they in strength– and in fortifications in the land, but Allah destroyed them for their sins; and there was not for them any defender against Allah.

[Quran 11.82] So when Our decree came to pass, We turned them upside down and rained down upon them stones, of what had been decreed, one after another.


[Quran 20.128] Is it not a guidance for them (to know) how many a generation We destroyed before them, amid whose dwellings they walk? Lo! therein verily are signs for men of thought.


may god keep us humble

Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,706
  • Dec 29, 2012 6:41am Dec 29, 2012 6:41am
Quoting fti
OK for those who cannot understand.

Let me try explain again.

Let say we want take a bus go north.
Lets say we board the bus and it reverses south.
For damage control the prudence thing to do is to dismount the bulk of the team 1st chance one gets?
and leave some one on board.
Then the bulk walks down south with a watch out for the bus with the someone on board come again going north?
with someone on board he can stop the bus for all board, or alert the bulk of the bus?

This only analogy.
There many strategies available to traders, many tricks...
great post,thank u fti,i will write something later to discuss more but for the moment my better half is not very happy me sitting in front of the computer chatting lol see u later and may god bless u with good health for holding our hands.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,707
  • Edited 6:56am Dec 29, 2012 6:42am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting drzakir123
thanks for the video.interesting,here is what koran has to say about previous civilizations.


[Quran 40:21] Have they not traveled in the earth and seen how was the end of those who were before them? Mightier than these were they in strength– and in fortifications in the land, but Allah destroyed them for their sins; and there was not for them any defender against Allah.
[indent][color=#ff0000][url="http://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/k/koran/koran-idx?type=DIV0&byte=333828"][[b]Quran...
mercy to us sinners please.
amen.

Many had walked before us.
Mightier, more noble, wiser, more ............................
but time took them.

Soon all our knowledge will be locked away in commercial trade secrets. Our Commercial revolution era.
How many of us know how make the things that we use daily?
Without factories we seems handicapped.?
  • #37,708
  • Dec 29, 2012 6:44am Dec 29, 2012 6:44am
hey mijamoto,i think u play chess,what is ur elo rating and what opening do u play/or what's ur style of play.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,709
  • Edited 7:13am Dec 29, 2012 6:57am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting fti
OK for those who cannot understand.

Let me try explain again.

Let say we want take a bus go north.
Lets say we board the bus and it reverses south.
For damage control the prudence thing to do is to dismount the bulk of the team 1st chance one gets?
and leave some one on board.
Then the bulk walks down south with a watch out for the bus with the someone on board come again going north?
with someone on board he can stop the bus for all board, or alert the bulk of the bus?

This only analogy.
There many strategies available to traders,...

And some are forever naughty

Burp

Happy New Year
Rgds
Inserted Video
  • #37,710
  • Edited 7:36am Dec 29, 2012 7:23am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting jacson101
And some are forever naughty

Burp

Happy New Year
Rgds
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxTngPDNqk8
: rofl: MIT card counting?
be careful of cement blocks.
what a clever escape.

The control seat is anchor.
Wish i could do that to the dealers.
but they know where i live

Happy New Year ! Jack

regards
  • #37,711
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:02am Dec 29, 2012 8:02am
Quoting fti
seems you very persistence chap.
And not take talk too seriously.
Thats a good character for trading.

thks. I gave myself lots of time to find method that suits me. I realised wrong method for me can have health consequences.

Even when you profitable, there's no harm learning stuff that enhances.
No one can know everything that optimises, comes with more and more experiences.

I am mostly trading with banks.
My retail trading is for experimentation if retail platform trading is viable alternative for trading, had...
Thanks for beeing open to newcomers. Will surely take up on your offer/challenge .


EDIT: 1/2 of the post was cut. HUH!

Anyway, regarding brokers you can diversify like ccy futures, MT4, oanda for example giving 1/3 each. Works fine for swing trading.

I wrote more things, pretty sure.
  • #37,712
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:51am Dec 29, 2012 8:51am
Quoting drzakir123
thanks for the video.interesting,here is what koran has to say about previous civilizations.


[Quran 40:21] Have they not traveled in the earth and seen how was the end of those who were before them? Mightier than these were they in strength– and in fortifications in the land, but Allah destroyed them for their sins; and there was not for them any defender against Allah.
[indent][color=#ff0000][url="http://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/k/koran/koran-idx?type=DIV0&byte=333828"][[b]Quran...
yes Dr after watching it I thought about Aad/Samood and others and not to forget Jinns. Prophet Suleiman (King Solomon) had all the powers.



"And I created the Jinns and mankind, only for them to serve Me" (Quran 51:56)
  • #37,713
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:54am Dec 29, 2012 8:54am
Quoting fti


With robust money management of trade sizes, one can use the bias to advantage and damage control to protect against the ego directing for death battles.
Ability to knows ones limits emotionally and financially, is key to finding that balance.
Ah you mind reader, it is about me what you are saying here but I was puzzled now it is clear.

Since last few weeks I have problem and the problem is my fear has completely gone, I am not sure if it is right thing may be need to have little fear inside me to manage my confidence. Any views?
  • #37,714
  • Dec 29, 2012 12:07pm Dec 29, 2012 12:07pm
[quote=fti;6327351]
correction. you understand wrong.

the interbank not quote trading prices in 10 pips.
Its quoted in 2pips. for cable 3 is average.

Generally the indicated prices is quoted on reuter "ASAP" page.
10 pips is standard indicative.
No one interbnk quotes running prices.
Is quoted to you when you ask for dealing prices.
Then they show you their shade in 2 pips spreads.
I have not seen reuter avail the use of page ASAP outside institutions.
one need pay for that page.ok got it.


To predict is to have bias. This normally comes from having analysed be it technical or fundemental analysis.
One can forecast, any one who trades will have some form of bias.( opinions if you like)see what a fool i was,trying to take the bias completlely out of the equation and trying to be as objective as possible,which is obviously wrong.
but bias is only expectations. There is limitation to that bias.yes ofcourse.
When things happening in the now, creates situations where the bias is tested.Then damagecontrol is paramount for survival.i understand this point.
You must have heard before, that markets can be irrational and reamain in that state. it can stay in that state mostly longer than your finances can support sometimes, esp if you are highly geared(leveraged).or is it me [the trader]who is not rational?.i understand leverage is two edge sword,and mostly it hurt oneself becos of lack of self control and emotions. So pro traders want to stay in the flow of things than a bias, is easier on the nerves and less fears.that is the reason as well they use low leverage.i can see what happen to LTCM,LEHEMAN BROTHERS,MERRIL LYNCH ETC

no one wants buys tops and sell bottoms, but these are mostly stops or desperations.its mostly fear and some greed which make person try for top and bottoms.if one try for top fingers will get dirty and try for bottom they will get smelly lol.

regards

With robust money management of trade sizes, one can use the bias to advantage and damage control to protect against the ego directing for death battles.robust mm allow one to exploit volatilty to one's advantage by putting rescue and attack protocol as demanded by the situation.
Ability to knows ones limits emotionally and financially, is key to finding that balance.abosuletly.in understanding that low leverage or negative leverage most helpful.

let me try see if i can explain this in medicine terms for your better understanding.
when a patience come to a doctor declare pragnancy.
The Dr does test determine if the test signals can verify, yes? That's analysis.
then if all good, then the expectation is after gestation period the baby will be here.true
that bias due to the test results, the expectatons.(predictions)we are long on pregnancy,thats our bias
But the Drs need still have constant monitoring of the situations.any number of things can go wrong,like mother can fall down,can have fits,abortion,ectopic pregancy,
to respond to any situations that may arise.......................if things dont go as planned then one try to rescue and if position is really bad then save the mother and terminate the pregancy[trade] and look for another opportunity.

I think you can fig it out.what i trying to say
Is the same in markets. With good experience one can analyse and develop a bias.
But the bias must be managed, managed within one's threshold of skill and pain.( fears , affordability to risk.)
When you have much foreign capital is easier manage. On tight financials can cause fear and disorientation.absolutly,learnt that the hard way but experience is essential otherwise lesson wont sink in and become part of oneself.

Mr. dog whisperer calls it rules,limits and boundaries.
Discipline and Obedience.
In banking , we call it risk prudence.i understand that.


thank u so much fti for taking so much time to explain to us,appreciated.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,715
  • Dec 29, 2012 1:04pm Dec 29, 2012 1:04pm
[quote=fti;6327403]OK for those who cannot understand.

Let me try explain again.

Let say we want take a bus go north.
Lets say we board the bus and it reverses south.
For damage control the prudence thing to do is to dismount the bulk of the team 1st chance one gets?
and leave some one on board.
Then the bulk walks down south with a watch out for the bus with the someone on board come again going north?
with someone on board he can stop the bus for all board, or alert the bulk of the bus?

This only analogy.
There many strategies available to traders, many tricks in the bag.
As ones experience grows the amount of skills and options increases.

i hope i articulate clearly.
bias is bias, trade strategies must relate to the NOW.
Pain threshold must not be the point of disorientation or fear.
Managing is the key.
regards.

fti,
Now is the most important,to be in 'Now' one need to be very very humble,without any arrogance or ego.to be with the present moment,one has to has ability to accept it immediatley and go with the flow and in this process big ego is a hindrance.may be this is the reason why people who make it to big,there origin is very simple,very down to earth,hard working,like buffet,munger etc.and also i notice one.s performance really improve after losing becos losing make them sort of humble,which in turn make them flow with the moment.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,716
  • Dec 29, 2012 2:12pm Dec 29, 2012 2:12pm
[quote=drzakir123;6327618]
Quoting fti



no one wants buys tops and sell bottoms, but these are mostly stops or desperations.its mostly fear and some greed which make person try for top and bottoms.if one try for top fingers will get dirty and try for bottom they will get smelly lol.

]
I get a feel you missed the point here.

I was trying tell you peeps who buy at market tops and sell at market bottoms normally are cutting losses.
Is normally not by choice.
Is either forced to cut because pain of loss has become unbearable, or margin buy in by brokers on customer accounts to prevent overloss of accounts.


regards
  • #37,717
  • Dec 29, 2012 2:24pm Dec 29, 2012 2:24pm
[quote=fti;6327713]
Quoting drzakir123

I get a feel you missed the point here.

I was trying tell you peeps who buy at market tops and sell at market bottoms normally are cutting losses.
Is normally not by choice.
Is either forced to cut because pain of loss has become unbearable, or margin buy in by brokers on customer accounts to prevent overloss of accounts.


regards
uppp.yes mistake is mine.ur right i missed that.i was thinking from the point of ppl who try to take positions at top or bottom.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,718
  • Edited 5:44pm Dec 29, 2012 4:14pm | Edited 5:44pm
My friends,
i woke up at odd hours, went back to sleep, woke up again.
Something is bugging me.
I not hearing voices in my sleep.
But some very important words, Dad left with me came back speak to me.

So i will take this opportunity explain a little issue, which i hope can help some of you.

some of friends here may be ataken back at my aggression at the $$trader.
some probably may feel i was a little aggressive with macroman as well.
if any one feels such, is because i am in bao MO already.
then i also like to explain myself for your understanding.
It is a good opportunity for me highlight a lesson i hope you will keep in your hearts.

I not know why the opportunity was given.
But God i think may had given us a helping hand in all this. the opportunity rehash this.

One very important attribute i had always stressed in this thread is about trader keeping cool mindset.
Only recently highlighted to curtberg, when he was disturbed by some youtube thingy.
I explained to him that the anger is of no good to him, because it will affect his mindset in his trades.
In many ways i am glad that he accepted my advice, in a very gentlemanly way, even thought the issue that angered him was to him a big matter.

The $$ trader showed up, dug up the same issue in a different manner on me.
I would had looked to many that i may had lost my cool, or had displayed much arragance.
In a way, yes, is true i was aggitated.
Because he challanged me in my thread about if i can talk about what i was talking about.
But the real issue isn't about that.
You see, if he had brought out the issue in a prudent manner, he would had done little to push me against the wall.
But the manner whereby he challeged me brought bad aura to himself. Bad introduction. If i was a pit bull, probably would had chewed him.

In fact the real issue was that he was tested in a way althought i not realised then , because is my personality due to training.
When challenged i always measure the perceived enemy first before i respond. As AOW is very in my blood.
But because the subject is close to my heart, my response was very aggressive, in fact a little beastly.
But more than i failed , in fact he failed the test, although was a very thought test both ways.
It is my believe that my initial feels about his trading may be on the mark.
Will be hard for him survive the markets if he not able change and internalise a lesson there.
Why i say this?

try ponder about it, include the issues with macroman together and you may be able see a clearer picture.
Macroman came here new like $$trader did.
He brought us a different challenge.
He came to us, telling , he has been profitable. Ok some arrogance. it comes to most traders who are making making money.
Thats why most peeps opinion about dealers are that they are so dang arragant.
But in reality is just the on top of things feelings thats driving them.
Again i tested.My nature,if you like.
I poked him with the exchange issue then poked him again with the cock jesting.
He failed the test also.
However he displayed calm after N_trader explained things to him.
This is a mark of a trader who can make mistakes and quickly do damage control and mend ways.

This personality is a very important characteristic that treasury managers look out for in the dealers.
Make no mistake, anger is very dangerous to traders trades.
If you noticed, when i brought out the cock thingy,macroman sort of lost his cool.
why?
because after the anger aroused him, he not notice the talk about feathers, of which if he was cool , it would had prompted him to realise i was talking not about that thingy , which he thought i was talking about.
Anger can blind one's rational thinking and unbias view of what we see or hear,even skew our ability think.
When one is not cool, bad things tends to happen to the trades. to all, even me.
Sometimes is the bad trades that brings the anger afore, sometimes is the anger that creates the bad trades.
And if left unchecked, can spiral down the trader's book in a nose dive.

Dad , always taught me when i was young, about this.
I cannot quote the chinese poem he uses to internalise this in me. Because i promised him never to reveal it outside.
but i have tried to give the core of that he taught me in this posting.

I hope my friends, that you can receive the message well.
Like dad & mom also always says,
when drawing pictures, no need draw the intestines, because then pic is not pretty anymore.
If still cannot understand re read this posting and think, think think.


regards
  • #37,719
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:59pm Dec 29, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting fti
My friends,
i woke up at odd hours, went back to sleep, woke up again.
Something is bugging me.
I not hearing voices in my sleep.
But some very important words, Dad left with me came back speak to me.

So i will take this opportunity explain a little issue, which i hope can help some of you.

some of friends here may be ataken back at my aggression at the $$trader.
some probably may feel i was a little aggressive with macroman as well.
if any one feels such
then i like to explain myself for your understanding.
It is a good opportunity for me highlight...

Hi sir! just got back from our hunting trip. (no trophies or meat), finished catching up on the thread.

I don't believe you were out of line in any way. I believe folks should have more respect for the thread starter and pose their issues in private or a more tactful manner.

On another note, if you would like to have a private forum with or without a live chat...I would be happy to set it up for you. Just PM me.
I do much of this type of thing so it would be no trouble. You would have full control over every aspect.
  • #37,720
  • Edited 5:54pm Dec 29, 2012 5:18pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting tubguy
Hi sir! just got back from our hunting trip. (no trophies or meat), finished catching up on the thread.

I don't believe you were out of line in any way. I believe folks should have more respect for the thread starter and pose their issues in private or a more tactful manner.

On another note, if you would like to have a private forum with or without a live chat...I would be happy to set it up for you. Just PM me.
I do much of this type of thing so it would be no trouble. You would have full control over every aspect.
Please read above posting again, the message is a little deeper. Try not miss a very important point there.

Thanks for the offer, tub.
What i am thinking about ids to stop posting trades on here.
1, is may disrupt others ability to develope their own analysis skills, and also i fear may disrupt their feel.

I was thinking in terms of bringing that to private that only those who can already do their own analysis and feel, may have possibilty have a check or 2nd opinion if they may had missed somthing in their process by comparision and alert of difference.
One issue i am graping with is whether this is indeed necessary. i not really know how much time is left.
But on the other hand i am thinking would be nice for me not bring up too much Jesus talks here as there are specific rules in this forum. Already they bending some for us, because of the relevance of what i say in the context of trade mindset and where i learning that from. Also maybe too much of my music cluttering this thread.

Then there is also my thoughts about serving 2 masters.
If the project takes off, my focus would mostly be there, and this thread will need play second fiddle .

Maybe if you or some friends have suggestions forward, we can discuss, lay things on the table and see if we can find the best way forward.
Thanks again for assistance offered.

regards
i just realised, you missing 1 posting we both made. horns locked.Very ugly stuff. had been cleaned up, i not know by whom.
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