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How to rescue a losing position?

  • #141
  • Dec 24, 2012 10:01am Dec 24, 2012 10:01am
Quoting kingsurfer
Kanzler, do u continue to analyse your trade after you have entered it? If you do, why?

Obviously you do, for in ur comment above you noticed the trade was wrong before it hit your stop loss. That's why you considered completely exiting at that time. What will you do if conditions are the best you can hope for in your system, will you still close the trade at that point? What then did you base this decision on?

No body knows what the very next formation in the chart will be. That finding will alter what you do with the trade.

For me I will...
I only continue to analyze a trade in terms of determining where to exit at....this is a skill I'm still working on building and has little to do with my entry criterion. Right now I'm trying out a strategy of trailing a stop at areas of major support or resistance built as price moves in my direction, but unless I notice a severe flaw in my original analysis I'm not inclined to tinker with things.
  • #142
  • Dec 24, 2012 12:10pm Dec 24, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Indrek
Sorry, I am a professional trader, so I do not waste time on paper trading. I just gave an idea about what to do. I trade this way all the time, and I never use ordinary SL.
Why I use same pair initially? 1. Because I am not watching charts permanently - I trade hourly charts, so I open my terminal quite occasionally. 2. Initial hedge has to be changed into basket only when the possible basket reaches extremum.
I keep my account big enough, so I can afford to have different baskets open in some loss for some days or weeks, while taking ordinary...
OK, I'm at it, i was looking at this point for ages, i had done the same exact thing to rescue my losing trades and i succeeded. I didn't have exact number as to how to, so it was a very crude method. I know one thing for sure that what you are talking about works and certainly, because i have not only used it to gain pips but to save pips as well. I request you to please enlighten me about this as to how to do it repeatedly. Could you please put it in words ?
  • #143
  • Dec 24, 2012 12:36pm Dec 24, 2012 12:36pm
Sorry
we are talking different subjects here
Expectancy is normally defined as the average result of a sample number of trades... say minimum 30, better 100 for a given system.
There you calculate the average outcome per dollar risked, provided the size of every trade (R), was the same.
Thatīs what I was talking about..
I understand you are referring to a predifined target that you calculate as probable, for one given trade...and of course, in order to have a decent R/R ratio,in the long run, you will need at least some big winners to compensate for the inevitable loosers.. (hopefully small)..
This R expectancy for a system is very important, but gives clear results for same size positions, unless you change the R variable as per dollar risked on each trade...in the excell file.
I understand the value of trade samples, build by individual trades....one trade, though important , doesnīt tell much for a system...people say, you can feel confident after 1000 trades in a system...and then you need to constantly monitor tweak and improve...
I didnīt want to be disrispectfull, I thought you were talking of 3/1 R expectancy of a system...not individual trades.

Quoting auxesis
I guess I live in Dreamland....

While the outcome of any trade is never known and it's expectancy subject to change as price action plays out, the relative position of my entry now, to the point where the chart tells me I'm wrong vs. a probable destination for price to travel before the prior is easy to distinguish on the chart.......... those distances define my MM and my acceptance to risk.

If it's not at least 3:1, I prefer much higher...... I'm not interested in playing.

Our styles are completely diverse and obviously not capable of...
  • #144
  • Dec 26, 2012 9:42am Dec 26, 2012 9:42am
Quoting hyip
OK, I'm at it, i was looking at this point for ages, i had done the same exact thing to rescue my losing trades and i succeeded. I didn't have exact number as to how to, so it was a very crude method. I know one thing for sure that what you are talking about works and certainly, because i have not only used it to gain pips but to save pips as well. I request you to please enlighten me about this as to how to do it repeatedly. Could you please put it in words ?
Well, I pointed to a thread where all necessary tools are available. Read at least first pages of that thread, attach the tools and the rest is just up to your discretion. It is pure math, so needs lot of thinking and research.
I do not think that this thread here is the best place for discussing specific methods. "Big experts" and people working for brokers would turn the discussion into a mess.
  • #145
  • Dec 27, 2012 3:07am Dec 27, 2012 3:07am
great thread ... I prefer hedging the position ...
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #146
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:13pm Dec 27, 2012 12:13pm
Granted
probably the math is equal to a stop and restart...
BUT, when you recover or hedge, you are forced to fight back, whereas often, when stopped "traditionally", we may just go to another time frame , market, etc.. and the position is lost....

Check Naningbobīs threads, a group of simple guys, no pros, (Naningbob has 2 normal jobs,) ...
Heīs doubling the account yearly, and many of his followers claim similar results...they sound sincere...and post their trades..

(Iīm not following them, I do my own thing)!!

System Naningbob presents ?, nothing unusual, a couple of indies.... MA..etc..some smart statistics though...
BUT: they use recovery, hedge, dayly bars, patience and very clear position sizing....
They have a performance that belongs way up there in the premiere league...

By the way check this
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=402109

I read also that some of those HFrequency traders have computer rooms the size of a football field...no wonder they show almost half a million profit average, dayly...and guess whoīs financing the game...us , retailers.
And thatīs "only" the SP mini contract...

Trading today is like a tennis match against Federer and Nadal together, against you and me....
Roughly, one is the broker, the other one: the "big boys" with all those engineers cash and equipment...
They handle roughly half the traded volume on SP 500, thatīs huge!!

No wonder everyone is loosing (almost everyone, granted)...
That is why I suggest everyone beware of those simple stop and try again methods, with those ultra tweaked indies, trend lines, averages, fibos, Elliots, Ganns SR...etc...
Read the article, those computer algorythms are studying retail trader systems, patterns, and behavior by the millisecond...

Read about this old "pits trader", made a fortune, his first Rule: "Trading is a loosing game by nature", start there when creating your plan....and those days he was not even fightinfg agsinst supercomputers!!!

Hope I didnīt bore everybody here...

Happy life to all..



Tra
  • #147
  • Dec 27, 2012 3:47pm Dec 27, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting hanover
@cuchuflito: I’ll explain with a simple example.

You are “hedging”. I’ll show you how I can make the same pips without “hedging”, but by simply copying your net position:

[color=Blue]1. We both decide to open 1 buy position, but then price falls by 50 pips. Now both of our accounts are -50.
At this point, you decide to open 1 sell position as a rescue “hedge”. I simply close my buy position for a loss.

2. Let’s say price subsequently rises 70 pips, so that your buy position is now +20 (but your sell position is -70). During...
Nice illustration Hanover. It's funny how many times we (you, nubcake and I) have explained that any hedged position can be replicated without hedging. It just seems difficult for some people to wrap their minds around.
  • #148
  • Dec 27, 2012 4:01pm Dec 27, 2012 4:01pm
Check out this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Turning-Losing.../dp/0470187697

It's exactly on the subject of this thread.

By the way, I tend to not believe in the effectiveness of any such saving technique. I think that if your judgement is not good enough to produce enough winners, why would it be any better when trying to save losers? When you are already in a trade your judgement is by definition more emotional. So do your best when your mind is cool - i.e. before entering the trade.
  • #149
  • Dec 27, 2012 4:21pm Dec 27, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting cuchuflito
Granted
probably the math is equal to a stop and restart...
BUT, when you recover or hedge, you are forced to fight back, whereas often, when stopped "traditionally", we may just go to another time frame , market, etc.. and the position is lost....
If that's what you believe then I kindly suggest to reconsider your psychological approach to trading. It's that "keep fighting" and never give up mentality that causes most traders to go into deep draw down and/or margin call. As for hedging itself, it provides no mathematical advantage. It actually hurts traders because it makes trading costlier. Always remember: net position/exposure is all that matters.

Quoting cuchuflito
Check Naningbobīs threads, a group of simple guys, no pros, (Naningbob has 2 normal jobs,) ...
Heīs doubling the account yearly, and many of his followers claim similar results...they sound sincere...and post their trades..

(Iīm not following them, I do my own thing)!!

System Naningbob presents ?, nothing unusual, a couple of indies.... MA..etc..some smart statistics though...
BUT: they use recovery, hedge, dayly bars, patience and very clear position sizing....
They have a performance that belongs way up there in the premiere league...
I like Bob and I think he means well, but his methods do not belong in anything premiere (which probably explains why he works 2 jobs). I have read his threads and have also had plenty of discussion with him on various threads here. He has said he's doubled his account in a year. He has also said he has had to add funds to his account on more than one occasion to prevent margin call. Why? Because he trades without a stop loss. That means he is more likely to blow the account in a shorter period of time then it takes to double it. Not very good risk management if you ask me. Anyone can double their account with some luck. Luck usually doesn't last too long though. Now ask yourself: do you want to gamble or do you want to make money long term?

Quoting cuchuflito
By the way check this
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=402109

I read also that some of those HFrequency traders have computer rooms the size of a football field...no wonder they show almost half a million profit average, dayly...and guess whoīs financing the game...us , retailers.
And thatīs "only" the SP mini contract...

Trading today is like a tennis match against Federer and Nadal together, against you and me....
Roughly, one is the broker, the other one: the "big boys" with all those engineers cash and...
Unfortunately for us "small" traders that is true. We don't have the same capabilities as those with more money and better equipment. It does not mean that a small trader cannot sufficiently profit. Big fish have to eat also. When they do, just make sure you're not in the way. As simple as that sounds that is the truth. That is also why you must do everything possible to give yourself the best possible chance to succeed. Like not hedging.

Happy life!
  • #150
  • Edited 11:53pm Dec 27, 2012 11:30pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting Fradix
By the way, I tend to not believe in the effectiveness of any such saving technique. I think that if your judgement is not good enough to produce enough winners, why would it be any better when trying to save losers? When you are already in a trade your judgement is by definition more emotional. So do your best when your mind is cool - i.e. before entering the trade.
Agreed. And that's also why I'd question the gent who posted that his exits are more important than his entries. Apparently his judgement operates effectively only while he's managing a trade. But each to their own; to whatever extent it works profitably, rinse and repeat.

Quoting cuchuflito
Trading today is like a tennis match against Federer and Nadal together, against you and me....
.......
No wonder everyone is loosing (almost everyone, granted)...
That is why I suggest everyone beware of those simple stop and try again methods, with those ultra tweaked indies, trend lines, averages, fibos, Elliots, Ganns SR...etc...
Obviously the big guys are going to use their knowledge and skill to its best possible effect; given the resources — vastly more capital, superior information, experience and expertise — they have at their disposal, the odds are stacked seriously against the retail trader.

However, that's just one possible way of looking at it. Another is that prices are nothing more than a series of generated numbers, and that forex is an activity where I sit at my computer, pitting my wits against a giant, inscrutable pattern-making machine; if I can somehow find recurring non-random patterns amongst the chaos, then I can systematically exploit these for profit.

If the game is rigged in a patterned way, then I make it my business to find out what those patterns are, and build a system of entries and exits that exploits them.

For example, I frequently read something like "my stoplosses always get taken out". Well, if a trader is consistently putting his SLs in the same zones, with the same undesirable result, then all he needs to do is adjust the SLs accordingly, and bingo — a weakness instantly becomes an edge. If, by way of analogy, the market repeatedly plays "rock", then the trader needs to shift his strategy from "scissors" to "paper".

Randomness is the real enemy. To whatever extent manipulation is predictable — in the way that it creates volatility, a distribution of ADRs, and regions of supply and demand — it is the retail trader's best friend. Small fish have the significant advantage in that they are agile and imperceptible, and can enter and exit without impacting the market. Think along the lines of aikido, or guerrilla warfare.

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Nice illustration Hanover. It's funny how many times we (you, nubcake and I) have explained that any hedged position can be replicated without hedging. It just seems difficult for some people to wrap their minds around.
Yes, people either see it or they don't. One thing I've learned is that it's almost always helpful to 'atomize' a problem (reduce any complexity to first principles, and/or break everything down to its simplest possible components) before attempting to solve it.
  • #151
  • Dec 28, 2012 12:48am Dec 28, 2012 12:48am
hmmm to hedge or not to hedge ... NOT would be the ideal situation.
Having said that I just hedged the aussie ...
I entered sells with toooo big a lot size ....
I am trading over christmas break when the only people trading cant really move the market that much and the dang aussie is turning on me ... sooooo what did i do ...
I hedged in despeartion to prevent a margin call ... hoping to ride out the retracement over the nexst couple of days and then ride back down again hopefully into some profit
YUPPPP this is the approach of a desperate and account undercapitalised trader
  • #152
  • Dec 28, 2012 12:55am Dec 28, 2012 12:55am
One thing is clear
most people in this thread agree itīs better not to hedge or recover...
Still it was very interesting to follow...some very experienced traders here...

If I didnīt get margined called by the end of next year...maybe I can share my experiences on the subject again with you guys sometime...

Till then, wish you the very best for the coming year!!

Ricardo
  • #153
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:49am Dec 28, 2012 10:49am
I do hedge and counter hedge almost at daily basis LOL.. it's up to you to said that hedging is nonsense.. it's your free opinion
but is there any 'hedge fund manager' here ? or could you give me logical reason why that 'retail' brokers ban the one pair hedging strategy or gap trading strategy and create that silly FIFO rules ?
  • #154
  • Dec 28, 2012 11:09am Dec 28, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Kiads
I do hedge and counter hedge almost at daily basis LOL.. it's up to you to said that hedging is nonsense.. it's your free opinion
Please read the posts more carefully. Nobody is saying that you can't be profitable using nedging. See the example in post #137: the nedged trader makes profit on both trades (but the un-nedged trader also makes exactly the same profit). It is straight math, and therefore provable; not an opinion.

Quoting Kiads
but is there any 'hedge fund manager' here ? or could you give me logical reason why that 'retail' brokers ban the one pair hedging strategy or gap trading strategy and create that silly FIFO rules ?
Merlin explains the reasons here. For opinions for and against, read the whole thread. There's also more info in the thread links that I supplied in post #122.
  • #155
  • Dec 28, 2012 11:16am Dec 28, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Kiads
I do hedge and counter hedge almost at daily basis LOL.. it's up to you to said that hedging is nonsense.. it's your free opinion
but is there any 'hedge fund manager' here ? or could you give me logical reason why that 'retail' brokers ban the one pair hedging strategy or gap trading strategy and create that silly FIFO rules ?

The problem with hedging is, it turns it into a zero sum game and your paying the spread twice.

Yes if you get a position going against you, rather than exiting you could take a counter trade, then take a profit on that, but if the market keeps going against pos #1 then you've only saved the profit of pos #2.

FIFO is just nuts, would suck to be from the land of the free, free to own guns but nothing else it seems.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #156
  • Edited 8:52am Dec 29, 2012 7:41am | Edited 8:52am
Hmm.. whatever
I do it and I'm convenience with it all this years..
rescue a losing position ? well, for me hedge is not for losing position, it's for protect your profit , counter hedge for losing position. I know how to lock and release safely. Basically, you should hv good MM, and without it maybe you that need to be rescued... lol.
or you need holy grail system that never loss ? nah.. there's no shared holy grail system.. because if you allowed stranger 'touch' your holy grail then it become unholy.. lol.
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  • #157
  • Edited 2:06pm Dec 29, 2012 11:58am | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting Kiads
Hmm.. whatever
OK, I'm up for the challenge. I'll show you how I can make the same P/L as you, by simply copying your net position, and with no "hedging".


In your first screenshot ("COUNTER HEDGE"):

1. You buy 1 lot at "A". So I copy your position by buying 1 lot also.

2. You "hedge" by selling at "B". Now the buy and the sell effectively cancel each other, hence your net position is now flat. So I simply close my buy position for a 10 pip loss. As long as you remain "hedged", I stay out of the market.

3. At "C", you buy another 1 lot. So your net position is 2 buys minus 1 sell = 1 buy. So I buy 1 lot, to give myself the same net position as yours.

4. Now you don't change your position, all the way through to "E". So I likewise do nothing. Now my buy position is +20 pips.

Let's tally our respective P/L. You've already correctly totaled yours at +10 pips. I've had a 10 pip loss, and a 20 pip win, for a net result of +10. Exactly the same overall profit as you.

The only difference is that you've placed 3 orders, whereas I've needed to place only 2 orders. So you pay more spread than I do. And if your "hedged" positions were open at 5pm New York time, you pay swap interest to your br0ker; whereas I don't because I'm out of the market. So I've outperformed you, by not "counter hedging".


Now let's move on to your second screenshot ("HEDGE"):

1. You buy 1 lot at "A". So I copy your position by buying 1 lot also.

2. You "hedge" by selling at "B". Now the buy and the sell effectively cancel each other, hence your net position is now flat. So I simply close my buy position for a 20 pip win. As long as you remain "hedged", I stay out of the market.

3. At "C" you buy 1 lot. So your net position is 2 buys minus 1 sell = 1 buy. So I buy 1 lot, to give myself the same net position as yours.

4. Your position remains unchanged through to "D". So I likewise do nothing. My second buy position is now +10 pips.

Let's tally our respective P/L. You've already correctly totaled yours at +30 pips. I've had a 20 pip win, and a 10 pip win, for a net result of +30, exactly the same overall profit as you.

Again, you've placed 3 orders, whereas I've needed to place only 2 orders, hence you've paid more spread and swap interest than me. So I've outperformed you once again, by not "hedging".


Please take some time to think about it carefully, and you'll see the illusion of "hedging", and save yourself some money, at your br0ker's expense. By simply copying your net position all along the way, I'm guaranteed to always make exactly the same P/L as you, even though the P/L may be distributed differently across the various orders.

The reason you're profitable is because of the way you use analysis and skill in timing the changes to your overall position, relative to the subsequent price movement. The "hedging" (or locking, or whatever you choose to call it) adds no mathematical benefit. If I'm capable of applying the same analysis and skill as you are, then I can adjust my own position at exactly the same points along the way, and attain the same P/L as you, while paying less fees to my br0ker.

"Hedging" appears to offer an advantage, because it tricks you into thinking that the more positions you have open, the more choices you have; and, rather than accepting losses, you have the possibility of eventually closing every order that's currently open in profit. That's the illusion. The reality is that, no matter how you "hedge", (1) the market will subsequently behave however it pleases, and every position's P/L has the same 50/50 probability of improving or worsening; (2) while the "hedge" is rescuing one position, the opposite position is always worsening at the same rate; and (3) most importantly, it's always possible to replicate any "hedging" scenario with a single position, at every point along the way.

It's my belief that NFA banned "hedging" in an attempt to protect naive traders, i.e. to stop br0kers from gratuitously collecting even more spread and swap. However, and just for the record, I'm personally opposed to governments telling people what they can and can't do. Hence I believe that it's ethically wrong for the NFA to stop traders from "hedging". If traders want to donate money needlessly to their br0ker, then IMO they should have the right to exercise that choice, regardless of its merit. Forex is ultimately an exercise where the knowledgeable minority eventually take all of the money from the hapless majority, in any case.


[EDIT] I appreciate that you've gone to the trouble of explaining your position by providing chart images. I apologize if my post sounds patronising. It's just that it grates with me every time I see folk spreading misleading information, like suggesting that "hedging" offers some kind of mathematical benefit, when it's relatively easy to show why it doesn't. This topic has been discussed many, many times before (the links I posted back in post #122 are by no means exhaustive), and I've grown tired of supplying the same old proof, over and over again.
  • #158
  • Edited 2:39pm Dec 29, 2012 2:24pm | Edited 2:39pm
Hi Hanover, yes, I also appreciated that you try to explained once again about hedge and counter hedge in your point of view..
it is true in your explanation that I spend more expensive trading cost than without hedge strategy, but don't you realize liquidate your 1st loss position reducing your margin power, when my counter hedge position in my broker zeroing margin requirement (don't you know that?).

Personally I feel more comfortable with locking my positions whether in profit or loss, and by doing some series of hedge and counter hedge, at some point above or bellow that positions series I can release it all but kept some positions as a base positions (highest sell or lowest buy positions), so i never losing ground to scale in to major trend and always lock when there is a retrace and release it one by one and continue my trend following positions 'running in profit' for long time..

In my example chart, if you could recognize what kind of trading system is that, do you think that I can't fast enough to find market direction..?

Once again, this is only my personal point of view in how to trade the market, I love to hold positions for couple months, and about the swap cost ? well, my profit always overrun it, and my counter locking positions that i close one by one always enough for my monthly living cost.. so what the problem with that ?

To be honest, my brother was chief executive in one brokerage in my country, and he hate so much hedge positions, he really-really like when his clients put tight SL according to the intended 'spreading' rules about 2% risk.. that make the most of you cannot put your SL to far away from your open position, so it will more easier the sweep out in both direction.. Every closing loss positions is 'real loss' when 'floating loss' still hv potential to become 'floating profit' as per wise guy said 'market can go anywhere she like'.
  • #159
  • Edited 3:22pm Dec 29, 2012 3:08pm | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting Kiads
Hi Hanover, yes, I also appreciated that you try to explained once again about hedge and counter hedge in your point of view..
But it's not "my point of view". I'm saying that "10 pips is equal to 10 pips" is an indisputable fact. You are replying that "10 pips being equal to 10 pips is merely my point of view". At the very least, you need to show that the math and logic in my post is potentially falsifiable, to demonstrate that what I've presented is opinion, rather than fact.

Quoting Kiads
it is true in your explanation that I spend more expensive trading cost than without hedge strategy, but don't you realize liquidate your 1st loss position reducing your margin power, when my counter hedge position in my broker zeroing margin requirement (don't you know that?).
Being out of the market consumes zero margin, giving maximum "power" (scope to place new orders). Whether "hedged" positions consume margin or not depends on your br0ker.

Quoting Kiads
Personally I feel more comfortable with locking my positions whether in profit or loss, and by doing some series of hedge and counter hedge, at some point above or bellow that positions series I can release it all but kept some positions as a base positions (highest sell or lowest buy positions), so i never losing ground to scale in to major trend and always lock when there is a retrace and release it one by one and continue my trend following positions 'running in profit' for long time..
That might well represent a profitable strategy, but it doesn't change the fact that I can achieve exactly the same result without "hedging", as I demonstrated in my previous post. It doesn't matter how complex your positions are, or how you go about your locking and releasing, I can always replicate your net position with a single order, at every point along the way. When you see that, you will understand why "hedging" (or locking/realeasing) offers no additional mathematical benefit.

Quoting Kiads
In my example chart, if you could recognize what kind of trading system is that, do you think that I can't fast enough to find market direction..?
You've apparently missed my point. Nobody is querying your analysis or your knowledge of the market, or your skill in timing your entries and exits (or locking and releasing). And nobody is saying that "hedging" can't be profitable. However, once again, anything that can be achieved through "hedging" can be replicated pip-for-pip without "hedging", and with lower br0kerage costs.

Quoting Kiads
Once again, this is only my personal point of view in how to trade the market, I love to hold positions for couple months, and about the swap cost ? well, my profit always overrun it, and my counter locking positions that i close one by one always enough for my monthly living cost.. so what the problem with that ?
There's no problem. If you prefer to "hedge", and pay your br0ker additional costs for the privilege of doing so, that's your choice.
  • #160
  • Edited 4:25pm Dec 29, 2012 4:06pm | Edited 4:25pm
It's so simple my friend Hanover..
if you keep closing your loss positions, or also your profit positions, then you always facing new challenge in any level of new entry. and you not keep your profit running after reversal that actually not reach your old position of course mathematically at the end I will more profitable than you because i keep my old positions 'alive' when you already closing it when price move closer to your 'in profit' position and after that you will search for new position that in long trending market it's always higher buy position or lower sell position then my old positions, and by doing that, your positions will be more riskier then mine for next reversal.

What I mean about 'Point of view' that maybe there was a different between intraday trader or swing trader who want to clear their positions at the end of the day or the end of the week to keep 'peace' of mind, and releasing it from market pressure then old fashioned positioning trader like me.. lol.


Here we go another example chart (sorry to make bold horiz line coz the entry line not so clear). and there's a lot more positions that not showed.. and still running in profit..

In this example, every Counter Sell (CS) for 'locking' the previous buy positions, closed in profit as necessary excluding the last one CS 05 that still in floating to 'lock' all of my buy positions.. bellow..
hope it help to make it clear about opinion matter, because 'fact' is relative matter too, your 'today' is not always same as 'my today', so the 'truth' nowadays not always the 'truth' in the future..
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