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9-25% Monthly Enough?

  • #81
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:03am Dec 28, 2012 10:03am
Hi guys,
Today's trade was positive on the GU.

Yes, I did have a loss yesterday but my client is still happy with his current 9.88% profit. Tomorrow ends my 1 month mark for the account. If tomorrow's trade is positive then the account will end the month at about 11% profit.
  • #82
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:09am Dec 28, 2012 10:09am
Quoting Cubbybgood
Yes I am down 10% but as I said 10-12% growth is a great month.

Remember people. When trading 10% profit is great. For some reason so many traders don't think this is enough.
Indeed it is. I'd love to make 10% a month. I think the reason why so many traders don't think this is enough comes down to undercapitalization.

Well done.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #83
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:31am Dec 28, 2012 10:31am
Nice trading here Chubbybgood

I am also testing this on a demo account. I have traded it for a few days. So far so good
  • #84
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:45am Dec 28, 2012 10:45am
Quoting aserafino
Nice trading here Chubbybgood

I am also testing this on a demo account. I have traded it for a few days. So far so good
Do you have Cubby's rules?
  • #85
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:55am Dec 28, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Caillou
Do you have Cubby's rules?

No. Unfortunately I do not have his rules

I use price action to confirm my trades with the trend. I check the 1H chart for the short term trend, then I switch to the 30 and 15 min chart and confirm the trend direction. After I try to enter based a 5 or 15 min chart. To make sure price will do at least the 10 pips in my direction, I check that I am not trading into strong support/resistance levels of 1H/4H/Daily charts. I have had good results until now but I am not yet confident in this trading type because I must see if I can be profitable for 3 months in a row to gain the confidence I need to trade it live

I also thought about setting the TP to 5 pips so then it would be possible to achieve a higher win rate. But the problem would be that to still gain 1% a da I should set more lots and the DD will also be higher.

But I am very interested of the rules of Chubby :

Time will tell.



Safe Trading
  • #86
  • Dec 28, 2012 11:20am Dec 28, 2012 11:20am
Quoting aserafino
No. Unfortunately I do not have his rules

I use price action to confirm my trades with the trend. I check the 1H chart for the short term trend, then I switch to the 30 and 15 min chart and confirm the trend direction. After I try to enter based a 5 or 15 min chart. To make sure price will do at least the 10 pips in my direction, I check that I am not trading into strong support/resistance levels of 1H/4H/Daily charts. I have had good results until now but I am not yet confident in this trading type because I must see if I can be profitable...
Thank you
  • #87
  • Dec 28, 2012 3:39pm Dec 28, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting aserafino
No. Unfortunately I do not have his rules

I use price action to confirm my trades with the trend. I check the 1H chart for the short term trend, then I switch to the 30 and 15 min chart and confirm the trend direction. After I try to enter based a 5 or 15 min chart. To make sure price will do at least the 10 pips in my direction, I check that I am not trading into strong support/resistance levels of 1H/4H/Daily charts. I have had good results until now but I am not yet confident in this trading type because I must see if I can be profitable...
Aserafino... Cubby's method rely's on the 100 pip stop not being hit too often, almost the same as using no stop at all.

This is the primary rule used by almost all EA's that are sold commercially... if the stop don't get hit, you should win... the problem is that trade size has to be very small to offset the large pip drawdowns. I have manually traded with no stop in the past and survived 500+ pip drawdowns for up to 3 and 4 months at a time... it all comes down to position sizing, but it takes forever to make much profit.

That being said... to be successful in the longer term one needs to minimize losses FIRST, and maximize wins SECOND (in my opinion).

Tight stops coupled with sound entry's are the key. If you use a 100 pip stop/10 pip profit, you probably don't have a sound entry.

You mention the possibility of using a 5 pip TP... a perfectly sound rule. You can still make 1% a day, you just double your position size compared to when working with a 10 pip TP. But how do you get that 5 pips?

How about 5 trades making 1 pip each, or 4 trades making 2 pips each with 3 trades losing 1 pip each, or 10 trades making 1 pip with 1 trade losing 5 pips, or 10 making 2 pips and 1 losing 15?

Whether you are chasing 5 pips a day or 25 pips a day it doesn't matter, the key is to move the SL to Break Even as soon as you can. If you can get your SL to Break Even (or BE+1) on 85 - 90% of your trades, you can beat this game.

An entry like Cubby is using sounds like he has the basis of a good method. Sure 10% a month is good, but if he could move his SL to Break Even +1 on most of his trades, he will do a lot better than 1% a day on average... assuming he makes more than 10 pips on some trades.

Any method out there can get 1 or 2 trades a month with the potential to go 100 pips... couple that with a money management plan that gets you to Break Even on most trades, and you are on the right track. You will find that about 70% of your trades close out at about BE probably, but in 20 trades you should only get 1 or 2 that close at your initial SL (unavoidable), while 1 may go 30 - 50+ pips with the other 5 or 6 giving you 5 to 10 pips each.

Sorry, I'm rambling on now... I started out with a well defined thought, but got carried away.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #88
  • Dec 28, 2012 5:54pm Dec 28, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting pt49
Aserafino... Cubby's method rely's on the 100 pip stop not being hit too often, almost the same as using no stop at all.

This is the primary rule used by almost all EA's that are sold commercially... if the stop don't get hit, you should win... the problem is that trade size has to be very small to offset the large pip drawdowns. I have manually traded with no stop in the past and survived 500+ pip drawdowns for up to 3 and 4 months at a time... it all comes down to position sizing, but it takes forever to make much profit.

That being said......
Ok... You should know that I do not trade this system

I am a price action trader trading only the 4H and Daily charts. I average 4 - 10 high probability trades a month and try to achieve min 6% a month risking 3%. I am a very picky trader and trade only the very A++ setups. That is why I have only very few signals a month, but these are worth risking the money on. You can see my trades here: https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/s...-action/437661
December 2012 was a very nice month for me, more than enough. I achieved a 4,5 RR that equals an increase of 13,5% of my trading account.

This strategy that Chubby uses can be profitable. The main thing that you must think is what win rate you have and not only the RR you get. If you have a high win rate you do not need to have 2 or 3 RR trades. I agree with you that you should protect capital as soon as possible and that is how I trade with my price action method

I came to this thread here because it is very interesting for me to try this strategy here... I think if Chubby did not have the confidence about his strategy he would not trade it into a live account and also for his friend :O So he must be very confident in it. As I said if the win rate is high, the RR can be lower. His win rate is over 95 - 97% and it should be fine to be profitable with it.

Also The lower you go with the TimeFrame the more difficult it becomes to win. It is possible and needs a lot of experience. But I do not want to sit the hole day on my computer and looking at my charts :S

So I would like to test this strategy as soon as Chubby will maybe post his rules. This would be nice to trade with my other swing trading method and I could use them both


Hope you understand how I think



Safe Trading
aserafino
  • #89
  • Dec 28, 2012 7:08pm Dec 28, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting aserafino
So I would like to test this strategy as soon as Chubby will maybe post his rules. This would be nice to trade with my other swing trading method and I could use them both


Hope you understand how I think



Safe Trading
aserafino
I certainly do.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #90
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:25am Dec 29, 2012 4:25am
Quoting aserafino
Also The lower you go with the TimeFrame the more difficult it becomes to win. It is possible and needs a lot of experience. But I do not want to sit the hole day on my computer and looking at my charts :S
I dont understand why many people think M1 is difficult to trade. Trade the opportunities where price is most out of balance, and you will make your 10 pips with 80 % + possibility
  • #91
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:38am Dec 29, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Infest
I dont understand why many people think M1 is difficult to trade. Trade the opportunities where price is most out of balance, and you will make your 10 pips with 80 % + possibility
I agree.
Anyway, a strategy is a strategy, and some folks just like it with higher time frames...
Best Regards!
  • #92
  • Dec 29, 2012 5:19am Dec 29, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Infest
I dont understand why many people think M1 is difficult to trade. Trade the opportunities where price is most out of balance, and you will make your 10 pips with 80 % + possibility
It is not that difficult... It is difficult to stay profitable in the long term view!
  • #93
  • Dec 29, 2012 5:47am Dec 29, 2012 5:47am
Quoting aserafino
It is not that difficult... It is difficult to stay profitable in the long term view!
But this counts for every strategy...because the psychology plays a major role in the outcome of our performance...

If you trade mainly M1 to M5 levels, your R:R is usually about 1:1 which sounds bad at first but you get lots of opportunities where you really have a high possibility that it happens.

But with success comes greed and then a beautiful day turns eventually in a losing one or zero.

The swing strategy of taking high R:R is good but you have to wait a long time and you need a HUGE account that it can affect your results.

With scalping you can make 20-50% a week easily ... but it is also difficult because of each mindset, not bc of the trade opportunities. This is very important. Because when you scalp you have make a decision in seconds, you have to know when to pull the trigger, when to exit and when to take profit.

If you make such swing trades or just say okay i need 10 pips and SL is 100 no matter what, you have much more time to view what happens in the market
  • #94
  • Dec 29, 2012 6:04am Dec 29, 2012 6:04am
Quoting Infest
But this counts for every strategy...because the psychology plays a major role in the outcome of our performance...

If you trade mainly M1 to M5 levels, your R:R is usually about 1:1 which sounds bad at first but you get lots of opportunities where you really have a high possibility that it happens.

But with success comes greed and then a beautiful day turns eventually in a losing one or zero.

The swing strategy of taking high R:R is good but you have to wait a long time and you need a HUGE account that it can affect your results.

With...

Yes, it is right that you have less possibilities in swing trading but you have also less LOSSES. And you can also risk more on swing trading because there we have not so many false signals etc and also less trades that are more reliable... But yes a big part is the psychology behind it and also the traders style and personality.

I do not want to sit the hole day in front of computer and watching the market. That is why I choosed swing trading. And the interesting part of this strategy here is that it is not stressfull.

Just my opinions

Safe trading
  • #95
  • Dec 29, 2012 7:48am Dec 29, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Infest
But this counts for every strategy...because the psychology plays a major role in the outcome of our performance...

If you trade mainly M1 to M5 levels, your R:R is usually about 1:1 which sounds bad at first but you get lots of opportunities where you really have a high possibility that it happens.

But with success comes greed and then a beautiful day turns eventually in a losing one or zero.

The swing strategy of taking high R:R is good but you have to wait a long time and you need a HUGE account that it can affect your results.

[color="Red"]With...

With scalping you can make 20-50% a week easily ...

In 20 + years in trading I have not see 1 trader do this consistently , even when I used to trade at the bank with 500 traders.....

Now I am not saying that it can't be done, there could be a trader or you that can do that but please show me who can......this person should be a billionaire by now, cause even if you trade high leverage "high risk" sooner than later you will get slapped very hard at that high risk level......
  • #96
  • Dec 29, 2012 7:54am Dec 29, 2012 7:54am
Quoting aserafino
Ok... You should know that I do not trade this system

I am a price action trader trading only the 4H and Daily charts. I average 4 - 10 high probability trades a month and try to achieve min 6% a month risking 3%. I am a very picky trader and trade only the very A++ setups. That is why I have only very few signals a month, but these are worth risking the money on. You can see my trades here: https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/s...-action/437661
December 2012 was a very nice month for me, more than enough. I achieved a 4,5...
Hi everyone,

I cannot respond to all the questions here but I will tell you this. I will explain my strategy here on this thread in the next few days. Any time from now threw jan 3rd.

My system is not complicated. I execute a trade if all conditions are met. I do not get up at a specific time in the morning.

for example...

Yesterday, I got up at 7:55 am est. Checked my trends and thought I'll jump right in because I saw a new trend starting. I was hoping to see more movement but it didn't happen for a few hours. I did not wait for a cut back but it would have been the smart thing to do on this trade. I have 3 different types of trades which I'll explain soon.


aserafino,
Nice trading man.
  • #97
  • Dec 29, 2012 7:59am Dec 29, 2012 7:59am
Quoting 4xPIPAHOLIC
With scalping you can make 20-50% a week easily ...

In 20 + years in trading I have not see 1 trader do this consistently , even when I used to trade at the bank with 500 traders.....

Now I am not saying that it can't be done, there could be a trader or you that can do that but please show me who can......this person should be a billionaire by now, cause even if you trade high leverage "high risk" sooner than later you will get slapped very hard at that high risk level......
I agree, I have not seen a scalper do this for real. I've seen claims but know one has shown proof at least that I've seen on a live account. I would really hate to live the scalpers life though. Stress Stress stress!

I have seen a scalper do 10-30% a month but not a week. Not to many good scalpers out there...
  • #98
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:17am Dec 29, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Cubbybgood
I agree, I have not seen a scalper do this for real. I've seen claims but know one has shown proof at least that I've seen on a live account. I would really hate to live the scalpers life though. Stress Stress stress!

I have seen a scalper do 10-30% a month but not a week. Not to many good scalpers out there...
Agree 100%
  • #99
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:46am Dec 29, 2012 8:46am
Quoting Cubbybgood
Hi everyone,

I cannot respond to all the questions here but I will tell you this. I will explain my strategy here on this thread in the next few days. Any time from now threw jan 3rd.

My system is not complicated. I execute a trade if all conditions are met. I do not get up at a specific time in the morning.

for example...

Yesterday, I got up at 7:55 am est. Checked my trends and thought I'll jump right in because I saw a new trend starting. I was hoping to see more movement but it didn't happen for a few hours. I did not wait for...

Thanks mate

Is this the only strategy which you use for your accounts now?


Looking forward to your posts.


Regards
  • #100
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:47am Dec 29, 2012 8:47am
Quoting 4xPIPAHOLIC
Agree 100%
How are you doing personally with scalping?
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