Trading EURUSD only

Hi m1,
my count is still at wave vi [based correction],
and now in wave v final leg.
It is the Ian Copsey method,
but still the same 5 waves up impulsive.
At the moment it has stalled,
and needs to get going!!!
Cheers,
U2

ty

Higher Low on 5m chart needs to hold ~1.3220 Support

Guys
see you next year

I am gone

See you.
As in Estonia we wish everybody a Good Old Years End to you and May the New be better.

See you, have a Happy New Year.

Have a happy one Steve & Mr S

I'm gone too!
The market will be here next year,
and me too!

For the supply and demand fraction

during my search i found some additional explaination from Sam Seiden.
the layout is changed a little bit and i remove some sentences.


SamSeiden – odd enhancers.

Strengthof the Move (max. 2 points)
Strength of the move: How did prices leave the level: strong fashion, or a more gradual move away from the level.Gives clues to supply and demand imbalance at the level. Strongest turn in pricelevel is where supply and demand is most out of balance. The more quickly theymove, the more out of balance they are.

Reward/Risk(max. 2 points)
1. How far did prices rally up from demand level beforecoming back to it. That is initial profit margin.
2. If buying at support or demand, where is the nearest area of supply. Ifrisking 20 cents on trade, is nearest supply level 60 cents or farther away? Ifnot, we are not interested in the trade.

Support and demand levels all around, we only want to take the best.

BigPicture (max. 2 points)
Looking at daily charts for big picture. Most of Sam'strades are intraday, but he still looks at daily chart for big picture. Bigpicture is important to day trader for two reasons:
1. big picture trend up or down - determines which side we want to be on
2. Where are big picture support and demand levels?

If we are taking shorter time frame shortpositions in context of a big downtrend => 2 points
If we are shorting during a biggerpicture uptrend, and we are close to big picture support => 0 to 1point

Retracements/ Tests (max. 2 points)
Once prices have left a level, sell zone with a lot ofcandles - we want to enter on the first retracement, it is highest probabilityentry.
First time entry are 2points
Second time is 1point
Third 0points

Chopping tree example: Every swing removes some of the mass. The moreswings, the more chance to go through.

Time at Level (max. 1 point)
Very much in line with first enhancer - strength. At price levels withsupply and level out of balance the most, price will spend the least amount oftime at the level. At price levels with the most imbalance, price will spend the least amount of time: few candles.

If price is in balance, price will stay there a long time. it is equilibrium,we dont want to trade there.

Question: How many candles in what time frame: Be very careful about coming upwith a specific number.


Arrival(max. 1 point)
How did price arrive come back to the level. We want tobe anywhere near other levels. We don't want new resistance levels before webuy, or new support levels to form right before we sell. Strong arrivalusually means strong departure at the level.

Total score:
The worst possible case is an 8 - This can be a confirmation entry.
Here are the scores:
If it was a 9 or 10, it could be a limit order
8 - confirmation entry
7 - No trade if less than 7


Anotherodds enhancer for short term traders:

Time of day that trade is meeting entry. Theopportunities that we point out that meet entry in first 45-1 hour of the day,these are usually golden opportunities. Later in the day is often not as great.
Coming from the institutional side of trading, you know, because you see theorder flow. Time of day odds enhancer is, in any market, supply and demand ismost out of balance at or near the opening of trading in any market. I saw thisday after day. Given that, if you are good at picking out levels and turningpoints, those will be most profitable. If entering in the first hour of theday, the best day traders make their money in the first hour of the day. Idon't know anyone who makes money just trading in the afternoon. If they aretrading in the afternoon, they didn't make money in the morning, and it will betougher. After all the orders get processed, usually supply and demand are backin balance.
If you dont know what you are doing, don't trade at the open. But if you do,trade because that is the time when most of the transfer between accountsoccurs. Morning is the golden opportunity.





So all members, buddies and silent readers have a great weekend and a happy, healthy and pippin new year!

NICE! Very Nice my friend!

and Happy New Year to you too!

Wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2013!!!

ZH wishes also a happy new year... (little bit ironic)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...nd-selling-vol

thodie
thank you very much about bringing those information togather.
appriciated

would like to share a information.
I had analyzed impulsive waves with smaller TF s.
eg.
when 1H chart has an impulsive wave including 15M W 1-3-5 in it also analyzed the PB % of smaller TF s
what I found is;
when smaller TF s PB % small, impulsive wave PB % becomes bigger then that
means when price moves fast with smaller TF s with low %PB, it consolidate more on impulsive wave.
not always but more often

Hello Steve....how are you my friend!

hi 4x
fine thank you
how you doin
all good?

you´re wellcome Steve,

thanks too for sharing!

See you next week

at what time here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/

does price start to move on Sunday?

thanks

EUR/USD Forecast – Dec 31 2012 – Jan 4 2013

EUR/USD enjoyed another week of gains during the holiday week, but could not sustain them, as the US is approaching the fiscal cliff. As a new year begins, volume and volatility are expected to rise. Manufacturing and service PMIs and employment figures are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week.In the US, politicians are working extraordinary hours, but there is still no deal in sight. A temporary solution could be reached to avert the cliff but keep the issue active. In Europe, French consumer spending, edged up 0.2% in November, but retail PMIs show weakness across the continent during this holiday season, also in Germany. Where are Europe and the euro headed?

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...12-400x213.png

 

1. German Prelim CPI: Wednesday. German preliminary CPI declined in November, from a month ago, following a flat reading in October. The reading was in line with predictions. From a year earlier, CPI growth eased as expected to 1.9% from 2.0%. A rise of 0.7% is expected now.
2. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday. A sign of hope for the euro-zone as manufacturing PMI rose to 46.2 in November from 45.4 in October. Although it is still below the 50 point line but the decline in factory activity, new orders and output has eased due to a renewed revival in markets such as the U.S. and Asia. Meanwhile Spanish manufacturing PMI also increased, rising by 2 points to 45.3 in November but Italy disappointed with a decline to 45.1 from 45.5 in October contrary to predictions for a 45.9 reading. Factory production in Italy slowed further for the fourteenth straight month in November, with the pace of decline accelerating to the fastest since August. Spanish manufacturing PMI expected 44.9, Italian manufacturing PMI 45.4, Final Manufacturing PMI, 46.3.
3. Spanish employment data: Thursday, 8:00. Spanish jobless claims have not improved in November rising by 74,296 after a 128,200 increase in October. Although the reading was lower than the 90,000 expected, the figure is 15,000 higher than the same month a year ago. Spain’s jobless claims are close to 6 million, more than 25% of Spain’s total workforce. Another addition of 50,300 jobless claims is expected now.
4. German unemployment change: Thursday, 8:55. Germany’s labor market printed a small rise of 5,000 jobless claims in November. The reading was well below the 15,000 predicted raising hopes that private consumption will boost German economy. An addition of 11,000 is expected this time.
5. M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 9:00. Annual growth in domestic currency edged up in the euro zone by 3.9% far more than expected , however loans to companies and households still contracted. Loans to the private sector declined 0.7% from the same month a year ago. A rise of 3.8% is forecasted now.
6. German Retail Sales: Friday, 7:00. Retail sales in Germany dropped more than expected in October, down 2.8% after a 0.4% decline in the previous month, indicating that domestic spending cannot compensate for the country’s declining exports and the ongoing EU crisis. A rise of 0.9% is expected now.
7. Service PMIs: Friday. The euro zone’s economic downturn eased slightly in November with a rise to 46.7 from 45.7 in October, amid stronger growth in the U.S. service sector indicating renewed hope for global markets. Meanwhile Spain and Italy continued to contract; Spain rose slightly to 42.4 from 41.2 still was below the 50 point line and Italy dropping to 44.6 from 46.0 in October. Expectations are: Spanish Services PMI – 42.7, Italian Services PMI-45.1, Final Services PMI-47.8.
8. CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 10:00. The flash inflation estimate for the eurozone declined to 2.2% in November vs. 2.5% in the previous month, below the 2.4% forecasted. The main contributor for this decline was a decline in energy prices. A further decline to 2.1% is forecasted.

 

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00.The U.S. Manufacturing PMI index declined unexpectedly to 49.5% in November flipping to contraction after a 51.7% reading in October. Economists expected a moderate decline to 51.5. Employment, backlog of orders, exports and imports contracted while production increased. A rise to 50.2 is expected now.
2. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 13:15. The US private sector excluding the farming industry added 118,000 new positions in November following 157,000 in October. Therelatively low reading could be accounted for by Sandy effects. Without Hurricane Sandy, the report may have been much higher. A further rise of 134,000 is expected this time.
3. US Unemployment Claims; Thursday, 13:30. Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 350,000 last week, much better than the 365,000 predicted by analysts. However this extremely low reading was probably due to Christmas office closure. Nevertheless, according to the most recent four-week moving average there has been some improvement in the job market. Another decline to 345,000 is forecast.
4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 19:00. In the last FOMC meeting held in November, the Fed announced QE4: open ended buys of treasuries worth $45, adding to the QE3 purchase of MBS worth $40. In addition, the Fed announced that rates would remain low until employment reached 6.5% and as long as inflation expectations remained below 2.5%. The dovish decision continues weighing on the greenback. We will now get to know how wide was the support given to this move, and how the Fed sees the economy.
5. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada added an impressive 59,300 new jobs in November, with a majority of full-time positions, rebounding from the weak readings in October. This unexpected surge helped push the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%. The private sector provided the major contribution to the rise in employment while public-sector jobs hardly changed. No change is expected in the number of jobs while unemployment is forecasted to rise to 7.3%.
6. US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. US economy added 146,000 jobs in Novemberaccording to the recent NFP report. The rise was contrary to predictions of only 89,000 job increase due to superstorm Sandy. However it is yet to be seen whether the recent hiring in retail jobs would last after the holiday season. An addition of 145,000 positions is forecasted.
7. US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. US unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years in November reaching 7.7% from, 7.9% in October. However the main reason behind this fall is an increase in the number of workers dropping out of the labor force which is not an encouraging sign for the US economy. Unemployment rate is expected to remain 7.7%.
8. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. Economic activity in the non-manufacturing businesses edged up in November for the 35th consecutive month, reaching 54.7 from 54.2 in October, This climb indicated growth is continuing at a slightly faster rate. 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Revenue continues to be subdued. A small decline to 54.3 is predicted this time.

*All times are GMT.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
€/$ started the week by stabilizing over 1.3170. The pair then made a move higher, but was capped by the 1.3290 line (mentioned last week) before closing at 1.3214, a small gain from the previous week.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
In the distance, 1.36 was a cushion in the fall of 2011 and then switched to resistance. 1.3480 was the peak seen in February and provides a significant backstop to 1.340.
1.34 was a stubborn cap during the spring of 2012 and is the far line in the distance. The next stepping stone is at 1.3350, which worked as a pivotal line in the past.
Below, 1.3290 served as resistance before the pair collapsed in May, and despite a small breakout in December, the line remains intact – a second attempt to break higher was already fully capped. 1.3240 is now a pivotal line in the middle of December’s high range. It separated trading zones more than once in December.
1.3170, which was the peak of September, served as support for the pair after the break in December and is a key line on the downside. 1.3130 proved to be strong resistance during December 2012 and now switches positions to support.
1.3110 is a minor line after working as temporary resistance in December 2012. 1.3030 provided some support at the same period of time, and also at the end of November 2012. Both are minor in comparison with the next line.
The very round 1.30 line was a tough line of resistance for the September rally. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support. It recently worked as a battleground and the pair is now ready for another battle around this line. It is closely followed by 1.2960 which provided some support at the beginning of the year and also in September and October – the line is strengthening once again after temporarily cushioning the fall during December.
1.2880 provided some support in October and also in late November and December. It proved to be a backstop on the initial false rally after Obama’s victory. 1.28 is the bottom border of the range, and was eventually left behind. The pair fell to this low in September and later got close to it.
1.2750 capped the pair after the Greek elections and also had a similar role in the past. It is now a pivotal line in the range. 1.2690 was the new low after the November breakdown, and also provided support on a second downfall attempt in November 2012.
1.2624 was the low in January and now serves as weak support,1.2590 was a cap during August, before the pair surged.
Below, the round number of 1.25 is not only of high psychological significance (USDEUR 0.80) but also worked as support during the summer of 2012. 1.2440 is already a stronger line, that was a clear separator during August.

what will change from 2012 to 2013

I have a cow & getting 10Liter of milk everyday @ 2012.
when year turn to 2013, suddenly it will not start giving 20Liter/day.
in reality it will strat giving less then 2012 as she is getting older

so year change does nothing on our trading pozitive.

we should analyze 2012 & stop doing the same mistakes in next days