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One Candle Wonder 19 replies

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One hit wonder or am I on to something?

  • #21
  • Dec 23, 2012 3:52pm Dec 23, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting Turveyd
I wasn't going to comment on the Line vs Candle debate, I prefer candle helps you see support resistance / SL hunting spikes it's info which is nice to see, I did try without thinking the same as you and well that experiment failed badly.

But if your history tick data testing then you'll see the price move to the highs and low's and better see if spikes woulda took out your SL or not, so all is fine.

Waiting for Candle closes and Candle stick patterns are all pretty much useless so you are best to avoid in ways.


Look forward to Tick...
Thanks to both yourself and Gumrai for the constructive criticism!
My backtest was based solely on close prices, not accounting for any high/low spikes, which Gumrai pointed out nicely
I believe you can download Ninjatrader for free. You just can't trade live with it then, but perhaps the Market Replay functionality is available.
Take a look at: http://www.ninjatrader.com/tour#Simulate
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #22
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:30pm Dec 23, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting smatthew
Thanks to both yourself and Gumrai for the constructive criticism!
My backtest was based solely on close prices, not accounting for any high/low spikes, which Gumrai pointed out nicely
I believe you can download Ninjatrader for free. You just can't trade live with it then, but perhaps the Market Replay functionality is available.
Take a look at: http://www.ninjatrader.com/tour#Simulate

Thanks I will take a look at that, took a week off 7weeks back was up 100% area and lost that as just can't get back into it again strangely.

Rewritten my method and how I trade since though likely not helping short term longer term should be much better, if I'm not lying to myself Ofcourse tricky not to do at times.

Spikes keep taking out my SL recently there a pain only seem to happen when I'm live trading doing paper trades in between and no SL spikes very odd.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #23
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:02am Dec 28, 2012 10:02am
Got burned in a sideways market
One good EU trade though, but got greedy .
I was to eager to do some trading on my day off of work.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: PnL.PNG Size: 13 KB
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #24
  • Dec 28, 2012 1:02pm Dec 28, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting smatthew
Got burned in a sideways market
One good EU trade though, but got greedy .
I was to eager to do some trading on my day off of work.

That's the issue with a breakout strategy under normal market conditions many many fake breakouts which don't go anywhere, today has a better range still than a normal day especially for a Friday due to low volume xmas effect.

BUT..... if you entered with the Yellow / Green EMA's direction near the EMA on a pause, with a SL tight ish the other side how would that of worked out ?? just don't play it when there is no direction, ie EMA is flat.

I'll draw the entrys onto your chart, give me 2mins.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #25
  • Dec 28, 2012 1:10pm Dec 28, 2012 1:10pm
I've just drawn poor arrows on the chart where I'd look to enter, you'd need to optomise your EMA a bit, maybe 2 EMA's, 1 set to High and 1 to Low reduced the accuracy factor.


That's pretty much how I trade, but M1 and more rules.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ex2.jpg Size: 107 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #26
  • Edited 1:42pm Dec 28, 2012 1:41pm | Edited 1:42pm
I've added two EMA's on the Low and High like you said.

Possible entry criteria:

  1. Short when price crosses below EMA(Low).
  2. Long when proce crosses above EMA(High).


Would this be more in the line of your thinking?

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 39 KB
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #27
  • Dec 28, 2012 1:55pm Dec 28, 2012 1:55pm
That's nicer to me anyway.

It's more about the direction of the ema, crosses themselves make it to jumpy and prone to noise, if the direction is up, odds are it'll keep going up, if you can get in near the Low EMA with a tight SL then you can have a cracking R:R, it's not about win rate it's about making many times more than you lose.

And as you see from your charts, a break below the Low ema will generally keep going, so good place to have a SL and good place to enter short.


Go back a few weeks and test it, markets been far to nice this and last week so not a fair test.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #28
  • Dec 28, 2012 2:03pm Dec 28, 2012 2:03pm
smathew, the system you are using is very simple and very effective just be careful when it ranges and when it does dont panic keep your head. you will be able to tweak the system and over time you'll be consistant. take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #29
  • Dec 29, 2012 6:45pm Dec 29, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting smatthew
Alright! One of FF's top guns planning on doing some rigorous testing!
I've to work next week so I'm glad you're able to get some trades in.
he's no trader top gun Smatthew, but his advice is very valid. what seems like control today in the current market can change very quickley. this is what makes trading 5 min and under so hard.

instead of making this thread i think you should keep testing this method for another 6 to 12 months and look at your results. it should be clear by then if it's working or not.
  • #30
  • Dec 29, 2012 10:33pm Dec 29, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
he's no trader top gun Smatthew, but his advice is very valid. what seems like control today in the current market can change very quickley. this is what makes trading 5 min and under so hard.

instead of making this thread i think you should keep testing this method for another 6 to 12 months and look at your results. it should be clear by then if it's working or not.
I disagree entirely with wasting 12 months time is short if itmt doesnt work move on keep learning and experimenting till you find something that does.


And if a simple breakout strategy workedwe would all be rich.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #31
  • Dec 30, 2012 12:22am Dec 30, 2012 12:22am
I think Apoc is a m1 breakout trader no idea if profitable or not.


I'm no top gun but at least I'm honest.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #32
  • Dec 30, 2012 5:09am Dec 30, 2012 5:09am
[quote=Turveyd;6328070]I disagree entirely with wasting 12 months time is short if itmt doesnt work move on keep learning and experimenting till you find something that does.

Turveyd is correct, do not waste your time over 12 months. as time goes by all the averages of the indies change. stick to what you said in the very first post use buy/sell line then go for it. once you hit a trend you'll make plenty but be aware of the ranging this is where experiance enters
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #33
  • Dec 30, 2012 6:15am Dec 30, 2012 6:15am
[quote=billytt;6328242]
Quoting Turveyd
I disagree entirely with wasting 12 months time is short if itmt doesnt work move on keep learning and experimenting till you find something that does.

Turveyd is correct, do not waste your time over 12 months. as time goes by all the averages of the indies change. stick to what you said in the very first post use buy/sell line then go for it. once you hit a trend you'll make plenty but be aware of the ranging this is where experiance enters

Good post
I have to admit that I am no expert with trading M5 TF
Looking at the way that Smathew trades, it seems like he is just trading breakouts of the high above the MA and the low below.
The way that the market moves, in a trend, you often see a retracement, then a ranging period (ranging, consolidation, whatever you prefer to call it).
Often a breakout from this ranging period, not necessarily in the direction of the recent trend, can give you 3 or 5 times risk.
The problem is to identify these moves in real time. They are very easy to spot with hindsight, not so easy when you cannot see the future.
Simple break-outs of high/lows can work, but you have to realise that when the break-out occurs, price has already moved a fair way in that direction. The bullish/bearish move could already be nearing exhaustion
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #34
  • Dec 30, 2012 6:27am Dec 30, 2012 6:27am
[quote=Gumrai;6328271][quote=billytt;6328242]


Good post
I have to admit that I am no expert with trading M5 TF
Looking at the way that Smathew trades,


well said Gumrai, you sound like a pro trader.It is possible to trade 5 min time (i do it sometimes to explain to people) but you cannot expect to do it hour after hour day after day and win. neither can you expect to trade off ema ma stoics etc etc etc, it isnt feasable to trade off indies which are (averages) but they are good as guide lines, i would never go into a clothes shop and buy an average size coat as i am 6' 2'' and 17 st lol, i can convert it to metric if you want, but i hope the readers can see what i am getting at, take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #35
  • Dec 30, 2012 8:19am Dec 30, 2012 8:19am
[quote=billytt;6328276]
Quoting Gumrai
[q

well said Gumrai, you sound like a pro trader.It is possible to trade 5 min time (i do it sometimes to explain to people) but you cannot expect to do it hour after hour day after day and win. neither can you expect to trade off ema ma stoics etc etc etc, it isnt feasable to trade off indies which are (averages) but they are good as guide lines, i would never go into a clothes shop and buy an average size coat as i am 6' 2'' and 17 st lol, i can convert it to metric if you want, but i hope the readers can see what i am...

Thats what im working towards hour after hour but M1 based on very simple Ma's 18sma tiny envelope and 100ema, keeping it simple means it works in more market conditions and doesnt burn you out.

100ema trend is down, momentum viewed from 18 envelope turned down. Short 5 sl exit when momentum stalls generally 10 does see 40. Repeat!

Only just got it perfected start hammering it Wednesday work and Flu permitting.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #36
  • Dec 30, 2012 9:06am Dec 30, 2012 9:06am
[quote=Turveyd;6328350]
Quoting billytt


Only just got it perfected start hammering it Wednesday work and Flu permitting.
i wish you well,The problem is we live in reality where tomorrow and right now we do not really know what is happening in the world. We are always lagging behind what the big boys do.Anyway i have a feeling T that you have almost cracked it or have. Be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37
  • Dec 30, 2012 9:15am Dec 30, 2012 9:15am
[quote=billytt;6328380]
Quoting Turveyd

i wish you well,The problem is we live in reality where tomorrow and right now we do not really know what is happening in the world. We are always lagging behind what the big boys do.Anyway i have a feeling T that you have almost cracked it or have. Be good
All back testing and paper trades suggest its cracked finally just got to not touch the SL which I have removed from my screen to stop large losses and let the profits run as per the method.

Just lol maybe 6 more months to perfect, sure hope not!

And don't 2nd guess the method and trade against it like I normally do.


Simple lol
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #38
  • Dec 30, 2012 12:00pm Dec 30, 2012 12:00pm
@Turveyd: I'm using my spare time to eyeball charts. I've attached some October charts for GU. Next Friday I'll have time to trade again, so until then I'll study charts until my eyes will melt.

@>Apocalypto<: I've had funded accounts at IB, MB Trading and now at FXCM. I initially funded IB with 4K and never touched it for 2 years - just demo'ing. After moving the money to MB Trading, I've started trading a little bit. Honestly I was just gambling. Fortunately, I've kept the stakes low. Now at FXCM I'm actually trying to become a more active trader.
Therefore I'm testing with live trades. I keep my losses limited by restricting lot size (usually 20K) and tight stops.
Enough with the demo'ing.

@billytt: Thanks for your encouragement! In the screenshots below I've combined Turveyd's insights for entering on pullbacks in a trend, the well known 1-2-3 entry methodology and the breakouts I've been doing up to now.
The 1-2-3's appear to be helpful in ranging markets.

@Gumrai: Hindsight is indeed dangerously deceiving. Trading while the market actually unfolds before your eyes is hard. Hopefully the entry strategies will be useful to me.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU pullbacks.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 1-2-3.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 1-2-3, breakout and pullbacks.png Size: 37 KB
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #39
  • Dec 30, 2012 12:32pm Dec 30, 2012 12:32pm
Nice chart work on the first 1 you catch on quick, you need to wait or some strength before entering then it might move quick and you won't want it any more, it's never easy.


What 2 ema's have you got they work well?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #40
  • Dec 30, 2012 1:56pm Dec 30, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting Turveyd
Nice chart work on the first 1 you catch on quick, you need to wait or some strength before entering then it might move quick and you won't want it any more, it's never easy.


What 2 ema's have you got they work well?
This surely requires more intensive chart monitoring.
When waiting for breakouts, I'd just use price alerts and continued with other stuff.

Acting on pullbacks and 1-2-3's means you'd have to keep your eyes glued to the screen :nerd:

You'll find the EMA settings in attached picture of an EU October chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 43 KB
Financial independence is what I live for
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