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Silent Service Method

  • #15,021
  • Dec 27, 2012 4:03am Dec 27, 2012 4:03am
Quoting clockwork71
I think the Yen is going to continue to weaken. It isn't often that a central bank is told to print "unlimited" amounts of currency. In fact - I don't know that it has ever happened. Given enough time, I think USD/JPY will hit 90 as it is the target the Japanese are aiming for at the moment according to a few quotes here and there.

I see your set up, and don't argue with it. But to be honest - I think we could be seeing the trend change again. Its been about 4 years or so, and Forex markets like to change direction about every 3-5 years, so we...
CW, thank you very much for your insight! I agree that xxxJPY is turning the long-term trend upward. I'm looking for an entry point for long, but it is a bit hard to enter at this point -- need to see a retracement/correction... I hope the US "fiscal cliff" doesn't mess it up

A Happy New Year!
  • #15,022
  • Dec 28, 2012 5:19pm Dec 28, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting Forexgogo
CW, thank you very much for your insight! I agree that xxxJPY is turning the long-term trend upward. I'm looking for an entry point for long, but it is a bit hard to enter at this point -- need to see a retracement/correction... I hope the US "fiscal cliff" doesn't mess it up

A Happy New Year!
Its very possible that a failure to see the fiscal cliff talks work out over the weekend could be the catalyst for that pullback you are looking for. I know that the USD/JPY pair didn't close well today.......however, I still think people will be willing to jump in around the 84 handle.
  • #15,023
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:10am Dec 29, 2012 4:10am
Quoting clockwork71
Its very possible that a failure to see the fiscal cliff talks work out over the weekend could be the catalyst for that pullback you are looking for. I know that the USD/JPY pair didn't close well today.......however, I still think people will be willing to jump in around the 84 handle.
CW

Your comment suggests:
(1) If the US goes off the "fiscal cliff," then, USDJPY falls down.
(2) If USDJPY comes down to 84.00, people may go long.
Are these correct?

I thought (1) is opposite -- going off the cliff results in USD's higher value (USDJPY RISES).
Thank you very much!
  • #15,024
  • Dec 29, 2012 7:54am Dec 29, 2012 7:54am
Hi CW,

New to the thread here. Only read for the first 100 page. Got a question about your entry point. Do you always enter at the break of the bar? What is so important about this level (the break of the bar) in terms of price movement? Could you please explain a bit about this?
  • #15,025
  • Dec 31, 2012 10:10am Dec 31, 2012 10:10am
Quoting esbatu
Hi CW,

New to the thread here. Only read for the first 100 page. Got a question about your entry point. Do you always enter at the break of the bar? What is so important about this level (the break of the bar) in terms of price movement? Could you please explain a bit about this?
It is because it shows follow through. In other words, if there is a reversal of the price action, the fact that we continue means that we are starting to pick up momentum in that direction.
  • #15,026
  • Dec 31, 2012 10:11am Dec 31, 2012 10:11am
Quoting Forexgogo
CW

Your comment suggests:
(1) If the US goes off the "fiscal cliff," then, USDJPY falls down.
(2) If USDJPY comes down to 84.00, people may go long.
Are these correct?

I thought (1) is opposite -- going off the cliff results in USD's higher value (USDJPY RISES).
Thank you very much!
One of the few "safer" currencies is the Yen. So in this case, the USD/JPY falls. Look at the financial meltdown a couple of years ago, and you will see what I mean.
  • #15,027
  • Dec 31, 2012 10:24am Dec 31, 2012 10:24am
Quoting clockwork71
One of the few "safer" currencies is the Yen. So in this case, the USD/JPY falls. Look at the financial meltdown a couple of years ago, and you will see what I mean.
OK. We'll see. NY is closing in 2 1/2 hours. No deal is reached...
  • #15,028
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:25am Jan 1, 2013 5:25am
Quoting Forexgogo
OK. We'll see. NY is closing in 2 1/2 hours. No deal is reached...
Deal is reached int he Senate. Now we have to see if the House can sign it into law. Let's assume that they do - expect a "risk on" rally for a short time. However, there are other issues out there now......

Debt ceiling talks anyone? Ugh.
  • #15,029
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:50am Jan 1, 2013 5:50am
Quoting clockwork71
Deal is reached int he Senate. Now we have to see if the House can sign it into law. Let's assume that they do - expect a "risk on" rally for a short time. However, there are other issues out there now......

Debt ceiling talks anyone? Ugh.
A Happy New Year, CW!

I'm not a fundie guy and don't understand what's really going on the market. Gold is turning up, while dow is still going up...

Anyways, I just follow the charts as a short term trader (intra-day-intra-week)...
  • #15,030
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:39am Jan 2, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Forexgogo
A Happy New Year, CW!

I'm not a fundie guy and don't understand what's really going on the market. Gold is turning up, while dow is still going up...

Anyways, I just follow the charts as a short term trader (intra-day-intra-week)...
It is because there isn't concern of a recession in the USA now with the "fiscal cliff" deal struck. However, as you said - trading the charts is the best way to tackle the issue. After all - it doesn't matter why a pair is moving, only that it is.
  • #15,031
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:42am Jan 2, 2013 6:42am
Being an Ohio State fan, I could watch this video forever. Also, gotta love the name Jadeveon Clowney.


Inserted Video
  • #15,032
  • Jan 2, 2013 9:48am Jan 2, 2013 9:48am
Quoting clockwork71
Being an Ohio State fan, I could watch this video forever. Also, gotta love the name Jadeveon Clowney.
Does Fiscal Cliff play on the same team?
  • #15,033
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:21am Jan 4, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Does Fiscal Cliff play on the same team?
I bet that running back feels like he ran off of it. Ouch.
  • #15,034
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:24am Jan 4, 2013 5:24am
USD/JPY has had a nice run up to the NFP announcement......I moved stops way up in order to protect profits. I think the AUD/USD pair sitting on the 1.04 support level could be the play for the short-term players.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #15,035
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:35am Jan 4, 2013 5:35am
That's the choppiest NFP I've seen in a while.
  • #15,036
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:38am Jan 4, 2013 8:38am
Quoting clockwork71
USD/JPY has had a nice run up to the NFP announcement......I moved stops way up in order to protect profits. I think the AUD/USD pair sitting on the 1.04 support level could be the play for the short-term players.
Hi CW, from your Aussie chart in your post, you put a line on 1.05. Is that weekly S/R line? The reason I ask because on my weekly chart, I don't see any clear support or resistance level that would indicate 1.05 as a major S/R level. Perhaps you put the line there for another reason ? THanks
  • #15,037
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:00pm Jan 4, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting esbatu
Hi CW, from your Aussie chart in your post, you put a line on 1.05. Is that weekly S/R line? The reason I ask because on my weekly chart, I don't see any clear support or resistance level that would indicate 1.05 as a major S/R level. Perhaps you put the line there for another reason ? THanks
1.05 is just a VERY round number as opposed to just a round number. Even if these numbers haven't particularly acted as s/r in the past there is always potential for them to. Remember that audusd hasn't traded much around these levels historically and so it is still as yet a pretty much unmapped field. (I hope this is what you would have answered Chris?)

BTW good call on audusd, it's only obvious if you spotted it!
  • #15,038
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:24pm Jan 4, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
BTW good call on audusd, it's only obvious if you spotted it!
Quoting clockwork71
USD/JPY has had a nice run up to the NFP announcement......I moved stops way up in order to protect profits. I think the AUD/USD pair sitting on the 1.04 support level could be the play for the short-term players.
So, you guys are talking about possible long AUDUSD, correct? Today, the price turned around up at 1.04. Do you think it's going to reach 1.06 or higher?

My read is, it's going to be rejected @ 1.05 and coming down to 1.00 in a month or two.... AUDUSD seems exhausted pretty much -- can't make higher high on daily chart...

Your thoughts?
  • #15,039
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:41pm Jan 4, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting Forexgogo
So, you guys are talking about possible long AUDUSD, correct? Today, the price turned around up at 1.04. Do you think it's going to reach 1.06 or higher?

My read is, it's going to be rejected @ 1.05 and coming down to 1.00 in a month or two.... AUDUSD seems exhausted pretty much -- can't make higher high on daily chart...

Your thoughts?
Well it would have been better to be long earlier but if you like trading hourly charts you could catch a pullback to the 100 sma? It's worth bearing in mind that aud still has the highest interest rate, although somewhat diminished, so you never know how much higher it will go.
  • #15,040
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:56pm Jan 4, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Well it would have been better to be long earlier but if you like trading hourly charts you could catch a pullback to the 100 sma? It's worth bearing in mind that aud still has the highest interest rate, although somewhat diminished, so you never know how much higher it will go.
Thanks for your take on AUDUSD. I agree that it would be better taking long. But I just have this feeling of getting a downward spike if it go over 1.6 -- no backup theory, though. Maybe the rate change would happen...

Next week seems a bit hard to predict. GU just made a big down hammer on a weekly. EU also made a negative engulfing candle on weekly, but the daily uptrend line is intact (it turned around @ 1.3)...

We'll see
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