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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,521
  • Dec 24, 2012 12:55pm Dec 24, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting jacktrader1
These seb vidoes you are talking about, there are only 5 of them by Seb from traders lab right? Just want to make sure i get the right materials.
Off hand, I am not sure to tell you the thruth. That sounds about right tho.

Also check out his stuff on Elite trader. He has some really detailed charts there
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,522
  • Dec 24, 2012 1:10pm Dec 24, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting sweatx
I thought the ND or NS would be the 2nd low volume bar after the high volume bar, in the diagram it looks like yours is the 3rd bar. I may be wrong, if so I had an incorrect assumption myself.
The ND / NS rule about volume and 2 bars has nothing to do with the high volume bars specifically.

A ND is a narrow spread upbar closing off it's high on volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart.

A NS is a narrow spread downbar closing off it's low on volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart.

Again it is volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart and has nothing to do with their proximity and how long they print after a high volume bar.

5 min EU chart from today shows examples of each. I have removed all other volume from the chart to hopefully make this very clear. See how the bars I have marked match the criteria I note above perfectly.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,523
  • Dec 24, 2012 2:45pm Dec 24, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting sweatx
I thought the ND or NS would be the 2nd low volume bar after the high volume bar, in the diagram it looks like yours is the 3rd bar. I may be wrong, if so I had an incorrect assumption myself.
I think you may be confusing the definition of a ND with the NDs which have been shown on some chart setups.

A ND is a ND where ever it appears. The ones you may have seen us talking about where we say it must be within 2 bars of the UT, are for a SPECIFIC SETUP only. For some other setups, the ND should appear somewhere quite different.

ND = narrow spread up bar closing off the high on volume less than the previous 2 bars.

Concentrate on that definition. Then go to your charts and see how many you can find. Do this for the last week on M5. You will soon learn to spot them.

Once you can see them as they appear, you can start to make a judgement call about whether they tell you something about the price or not. Some will, some wont (but, they will still all be NDs).


You should use this recognition process for all of the various bars in VSA. Only once you can recognise them all without even trying, will you be at the stage where you can start looking for an entry requirement.


With all that said, this is the most important aspect to mastering VSA:-

Knowing how to spot the various bars is only a small part of VSA. The most important part is knowing what they all mean and how to use them to spot SMs intentions.
  • #23,524
  • Dec 24, 2012 8:09pm Dec 24, 2012 8:09pm
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.

2. Friday was a down bar on very high volume that closed off its low. This is Demand Swamping Supply (DDS). When strength appears, it usually appears on a down bar. Simply put, the Smart Money was buying on this bar.

3. Today (Monday 24th Christmas eve), we have a narrow range down bar on volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Supply (NS). The BBs are not interested in lower prices. Don't be fooled by the "low pre-holiday volume". The BBs are ever present. The low volume reflects their disinterest in the down side, not their absence.

When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price..

Deteriorating news on the FC may well result in a Shake Out. This will be a wide spread bar closing on or near the high on Ultra High Volume. Despite the bad news, or because of it, this will be bullish. Expect higher prices to follow.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,525
  • Edited Dec 25, 2012 12:55am Dec 24, 2012 9:20pm | Edited Dec 25, 2012 12:55am
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.
1. Price is in an Up Trend.
2... Smart Money was buying on this bar.
3... The BBs are ever present. The low volume reflects their disinterest in the down side, not their absence.
When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price..
Deteriorating news on the FC may well result in a Shake Out. This will be a wide spread bar closing on or near the high on Ultra High Volume. Despite the bad news, or because of it, this will be bullish. Expect higher prices to follow.
Good stuff.. that thread is a joke.. 10% act like they are in the know & the rest are bottom/top pickers..

http://www.clipartguide.com/_named_c...part_image.jpg

ATR for the last week of December to the 1st week of January since 2008 had been a whooping 550 pips..
This year, we are dealing with a M/T bull market gyrating to a "Fiscal Cliff Hanger".. with bears salivating over the recent PA, I wouldn't be surprise to see another 300 pip weekly up-thrust from this 3 month Supply zone turn Demand to re-print the February year high 1.3468~88..

EURUSD D1+W1 overlay @12212012
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EURUSD D1 @12072012
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EURUSD D1 @11182012
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  • #23,526
  • Edited 1:05pm Dec 26, 2012 12:53pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.

2. Friday was a down bar on very high volume that closed off its low. This is Demand Swamping Supply (DDS). When strength appears, it usually appears on a down bar. Simply put, the Smart Money was buying on this bar.

3. Today (Monday 24th Christmas eve), we have a narrow range...
HG,

Thanks for the post and insights. I must say however that when looking at my daily chart and even your daily chart I don't see the same thing you do.

Due to time differences my Monday bar closed as a ND since it closed as an upbar but the lowest volume in forever is the same and IMHO the bar print no matter whether an upbar as on my chart or a downbar as on you chart we see as much lack of topside interest as we do no supply or no selling pressure.

This bar opens on it's low and makes a weak journey upward on no volume and ends up closing very close to where it opened the day. This for me shows lack of demand and lack of buyers and as such the market ended the day on the lows where we started. Today we are seeing another low volume day and another weak upbar day. Yes we have made a higher high than Monday and the close should be telling. I do agree that there was demand on the Friday bar but this is expected as we dipped down into that 3170ish resistance level from the September high. We've already seen some support / demand at this level as we approached on December 14th and then printed an effort bar on the 17th. We never really tested this level properlly after the breakthrough on the 18th and as such we have returned to do so and as noted did see some demand had built some protection at this level. No follow through and weak bar prints are for me showing lack of SM in heading back up at this time.

Thursday and Friday should help clear things up a bit more to show further was SM are planning to do.

On the hourly chart today we saw the highest volume of the day print on a wide range upbar right into that important 3250 level. Dependant on the close today I am expecting a possible trade set-up around LO into the 3230ish level for a short targetting a return back to 3100. This is a strong bear target from both the 1hr and Daily charts. We could well still see a continued upmove this week as everyone gets back to work however for me I see more weakness than strength at this moment. 3180-3160 support below has been tough thus far though and will need to be taken out and tested if 3100 is truly in the cards.

Will evaluate again come the end of day.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,527
  • Dec 26, 2012 2:50pm Dec 26, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting HiddenGap
If you are talking about Seb's videos on Trader's Lab, these are a must watch. He certainly does a better job than a coin toss (50/50). If you really want to learn VSA, I recommend you do the exercise yourself. Replay your data one interval at a time and try to determine the direction of the next interval. You will quickly find out a few things:
Not sure which videos I watched. I think that was it. Good point. Yea, I can see I can learn a lot here. As for the ND bars, I see what your saying. A no demand doesn't have to be the second bar from the highest on volume. Still, finding these ND and NS bars looks like it is a challenge especially if the exact definition is not exact. Thanks! Very informative.
  • #23,528
  • Dec 26, 2012 5:31pm Dec 26, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it......

When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price...
To be honest, I was expecting a more sustained rally. Nevertheless, we did rally and close higher.

Inserted Video


Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,529
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:31am Dec 27, 2012 2:31am
Guys I must say you re incredible. I learneg a lot from...just readin and implementing VSA into trades.
Now I'm watchnih GU around 1.6150...think strength is all around. I followed 1min chart. High volume up bar at resistance, after that retrace with falling volume.
  • #23,530
  • Edited 6:58am Dec 27, 2012 6:35am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting HiddenGap
To be honest, I was expecting a more sustained rally. Nevertheless, we did rally and close higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-kfmuGHtxo

No luck you were right , the rally continues. This is one strong EU bull . I guess those last two daily ND's were polar bears in Hawaii.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,531
  • Dec 27, 2012 10:20am Dec 27, 2012 10:20am
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?
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  • #23,532
  • Dec 27, 2012 11:48am Dec 27, 2012 11:48am
Quoting pres78
Dependant on the close today I am expecting a possible trade set-up around LO into the 3230ish level for a short targetting a return back to 3100. This is a strong bear target from both the 1hr and Daily charts. We could well still see a continued upmove this week as everyone gets back to work however for me I see more weakness than strength at this moment. 3180-3160 support below has been tough thus far though and will need to be taken out and tested if 3100 is truly in the cards.

Will evaluate again come the end of day.
Well it didn't come at LO but I finally got that SOW into 3230. Nice Hourly ND rising above but closing below this level. I went short at 3218 looking first for 3200 and then that 3180-3160 support zone. Seeing some support at the low of that 1 hour zone from today (3209) as it expected. There was some big volume on that bar and we did close a bit off the low but we did push down and close below that 3230 zone low so some demand on the push was also expected. We will see whether or not today's zone is a bull or bear zone but for now I still feel overall the weakness is still in control.

Accross the board on other pairs such as GBPUSD and UCDCAD we are seeing USD strength present.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,533
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:06pm Dec 27, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Scipio
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?
The question was for me, but don't let that stop anybody else that wants to take a stab at it.

(yes, Pres, I am talking to you. I am very interestind in what you have to say about these intervals)
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,534
  • Edited 1:12pm Dec 27, 2012 1:02pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting Scipio
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?

Thank you for the question and welcome.

There is so much going on here, I don't know where to start.

I am going to start by saying, the trend is down. I don't know what that MA is exactly, but it is red and price is basically below it. I interpret that to mean the trend is down. In a down trend we want to pay much more attention to the signs of weakness, not the signs of strength.

Okay, let's take a look at the chart.

1. The first thing to note is that I have marked the interval prior to 1 as 1'. To fully understand this interval we need to first look at the interval that preceded it. 1' is a wide spread down bar on very high volume that closed on its low. This is an effort to Fall and could be seen as a sign of weakness. However, the next interval (1) is up. This means there had to be some buying (demand) hidden in all that effort.
The first way to look at 1 is to note that it is a squat. It is a narrow range bar on increasing volume that makes a lower low. This speaks to some strength. But this is not the whole story. Note that the volume on the effort to Fall is pretty high. But we have concluded that there was demand hidden within this interval. We closed on the low, so how much did demand swamp supply? There is one way to find out: TEST.

1 is a Test. It is a Test on Ultra High Volume. There are two ways a test fails, one is the next interval is not up. And two is the volume is too high. Of course this one is not so simple. Whilst the volume is very high, the next interval is up. What we know is in a case like this, the volume will need to be tested again. Hence we see the No Supply interval back into the range of this test bar.

So the strength of 1 can be seen without looking at the prior interval and looking at the price action 3 intervals after it. (keep the 1-3 intervals after idea in your mind).

2. The first thing we note is that this is an up interval on decreasing volume. Bearish volume is increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars (see pg 19 of MTM). But we have to look at the previous interval to get the whole story. 2' is a wide spread up bar on very high volume. It makes a lower low and a higher high than the previous bar. It is both an Outside Key Reversal (OKR) and an effort to rise. Since this interval is an effort to rise, which normally come on very high volume, it is reasonable to expect that the next bar while being up might come on less volume. After all, if volume was greater, we would be getting into the excessive territory pretty quickly.

2 is an up bar giving us result from an effort to raise. This confirms the strength of 2', but does not really say much about 2 itself. There are elements of weakness on this interval like the decreasing volume. Which we have to take in context as previous stated. And the fact that this interval is not really making much progress after the effort to rise. Ultimately, I think this bar is just kind of nebulas.

2 intervals later, and 3 intervals after the Effort to rise, we get the key interval. This is a wide spread down bar on increasing volume that closes on its low. More importantly, it closes lower than both the Effort to rise and the High Volume Test. This is negative action.

Just for fun, I added my 5 min guidetrader chart......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,535
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:00pm Dec 27, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting pres78
Well it didn't come at LO but I finally got that SOW into 3230. Nice Hourly ND rising above but closing below this level. I went short at 3218 looking first for 3200 and then that 3180-3160 support zone. Seeing some support at the low of that 1 hour zone from today (3209) as it expected. There was some big volume on that bar and we did close a bit off the low but we did push down and close below that 3230 zone low so some demand on the push was also expected. We will see whether or not today's zone is a bull or bear zone but for now I still...
Well this trade wasn't mean't to be so I closed out for a small loss on that upbar back into that 3230 level. As I noted that zone low from today's 1hr bar (UHV black volume bar) which is 3209 could well provide some support and by shorting into this unbroken low was a touch more of a risky trade but I was able to re-evaluate the trade after a couple of hours and made the decision to pull the plug on the trade. Will not be looking for anymore trades until tommorow now but I know what levels I will be watching.

As I write this post we are back up and testing the 50% of today's zone which is 3240, not too shy of that 3250 level that has been part of many UHV zones over the past couple of trading weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1hour.gif Size: 34 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,536
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:20pm Dec 27, 2012 2:20pm
Quoting pres78
Well this trade wasn't mean't to be so I closed out for a small loss on that upbar back into that 3230 level. As I noted that zone low from today's 1hr bar (UHV black volume bar) which is 3209 could well provide some support and by shorting into this unbroken low was a touch more of a risky trade but I was able to re-evaluate the trade after a couple of hours and made the decision to pull the plug on the trade. Will not be looking for anymore trades until tommorow now but I know what levels I will be watching.

As I write this post we are back...

Looking at your chart, we are moving up on decreasing volume. This is bearish. Soon we need to see either volume increase on these up bars or we need to see a Test.

If we get an up bar where the range is narrow and the volume remains low, this will be our No Demand. And price will probably attempt to head back down to the low of your Zone.

These were more questions than statements. Do you agree?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,537
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:50pm Dec 27, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Looking at your chart, we are moving up on decreasing volume. This is bearish. Soon we need to see either volume increase on these up bars or we need to see a Test.

If we get an up bar where the range is narrow and the volume remains low, this will be our No Demand. And price will probably attempt to head back down to the low of your Zone.

These were more questions than statements. Do you agree?
Yes I agree. However as we both know the market can drift a long ways up or down without SM intervention. These afternoon drifts are quite common actually following UHV WRB's. If we find some demand and SM aren't actively buying but also aren't selling then up we drift.

The good thing is today 1 hour zone gives me some great trade locations to watch tommorow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,538
  • Edited 2:13am Dec 28, 2012 1:01am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting HiddenGap

There is so much going on here, I don't know where to start.
Hi HG thank you for your reply,
first of all i want to apologise because my english is very poor...you always talk about the importance of the backgrownd, then I want to show you the eu-5min chart of yesterday:

1 - During asian session, I see a wide sperad up candle on climatic volume that close slightly off the high, the next candle is up, it makes a HH, not a LL, but its range is very narrow and vol decreased. You have also to note that the previous day high (not shown in this chart) around 1.32531, was not affected. EFFORT WITH NO RESULT Something is changing...

2 - This is a KRB it opens higher the close of the previous candle, it makes a HH and (not VSA) engulfs the body of the previous candle on ultra high volume. Next candle is down. It is a very weak candle.

At this point the market float sideway, this is a bad sign for short, maybe is the market still strong?

3 - Early in the morning another wide spread up candle appears on ultra high vol. The next candle (4) is down, another sign of weakness. The only think that I am slightly worreid about is the lower shadow of the candle 4, that shows some support...

5 - Another wide spread up candle that coloses higher the candle 3 on decreasing volume in regard of 3. Something in the path of last resistance is changing.

6 - For me this was the key bar (and I was wrong): a wide spread down candle that engulfs the boy of 2 previous candle, at this point for me the market is very weak.

Hence, I was looking for a narrow spread up candle showing ND to short te market.

7 - The market tests, the volume is less than the two previous bars but well over the average, for me it is too high to be a healthy test. However the market moves up: test confirmed.

8 - Another KRB it makes a HH in regard of the previous candle, it opens higher then the previous candle open and closes slightly off its low.

9 - No follow through, the market tests again, but again I dont like the volume despite it is less than the previous two candles.

10 - NO JOY - Pushing through supply, despite I was wrong, i was not in the market.


The market shows strength



11 - Wide spread up candle on climatic vol, with the next bar down, some supply hits the market

12 - Wrong candle LOL

12 + 3 - Ok now I know that the market is strong, I had a beautiful pushing through supply and now a narrow bar on decreasing vol (under average), this is a hidden test. One bar later the test is confirmed.

12 + 5 - A wide down candle that closes under the close of the test candle. No result from a test...Sign of weakness

OK now I am a little confused, the market is weak or strong?
The backgrownd is too confused...
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  • #23,539
  • Edited 8:26am Dec 28, 2012 2:39am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting Scipio

12 + 3 - Ok now I know that the market is strong, I had a beautiful pushing through supply and now a narrow bar on decreasing vol (under average), this is a hidden test. One bar later the test is confirmed.
OK when I look better, this is not a test, it looks like a ND...however I dont like ND wich does not do a HH, and surely after a pushing through supply the marker needS a little rest...I tink this ND is out of place...

In fact the next candle does not confirm ND
  • #23,540
  • Edited 9:15am Dec 28, 2012 8:52am | Edited 9:15am
some running comments on a trade * i just made and managed in EU . have fun..
*(before i took it and while i was in it)

(it may be messy but hey it was while it happened on M1 so bare with me )


key level : 1.32099

after a series of higher highs /Lows.. strong rallie bars. and a shaekout we traded with strnght in the background torwards this key level(1.32099) , where we see a demand bar formed torwards this level..

therefore shorts dont come into play.. ,, we will wait and see if we breach it clearly and wait for a retest where we look for a long entry.. ,,..

we allready breached it on good volume and good looking upbars..

a retest is anticipated.. , we trade torards a MP of small box within the range.. also on high vol. and strong rallie bar ,, ie. demand. and strenght has been confirmed, .

a retest of 1.32099 will be used as an long entry where the SL is placed at the low of a 2bar (1min ) hinge.. #@1.32056

the FTA is the MP @1.32195 , after succesfull breach we pull SL to BE+
next after that is the low of a mini demandchannel 1.32240 and its MP 1.32275 just shy our target
Backup is 1.32099 (entry) level

target 1.32305 the MP of the big box(range)

the actual reaction is also on dimnishing vol. and small sized downbars.. .. ie selling pressure is
not a problem.. atm

the approch torwards our entry level.. confirms.. our view.. of weak reaction no selling pressure .. against demand.. and strenght

entered on a break of a pinbar.. .. SL is set,..
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we trade torwards the lows of the PB .. where our Backup is .. the vol is still decreasing..

i have the feeling that the sl is in danger .. as its really tight

and we allready breachd the lows of the PB...

small hinge fromed (1min) ... may get shaken out..

still no demand coming in....

fucking close call!!!

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nice but small rallie bar... now the level of 1.32099 has to bee taken out..

1.32099 has to hold.. or else we form a lower high... and my Sl will get in danger again-

there u go lower high,,, and price is on its way to my SL again..... .. ummm

might see a small springboard. if we make a higher low.. thou... lets see...

still no real signs of weakness thou... just bad timing,, but ok.. entry was justified..

if i get shaken out i may get a nother chance....

yep looks like a small hinge (springboard ) forms... at the key level of 1.32099

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wich ever way it may breakout it will happen on good momentum...

odds are in favour to the upside thou.. (backround)

there u go..

breakout to the top

but not that hard and good.. but still thou...
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