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9-25% Monthly Enough?

  • #21
  • Dec 22, 2012 6:23pm Dec 22, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting pt49
If you had 2 losing trades at 10% of the balance, you'd take a month to recover, given that your trade size would be reduced by 19% at the start of the recovery phase.

$50,000 less $5,000 = $45,000 less $4500 = $40,500 (2 losses totalled $9500 = 19%)

New bal $40,500

New trade size now for 10 pip gain = $405 per 10 pips = 1% gain

It will take just on 18 to 20 trades to recover the 2 trades lost. There's 20 to 21 London opens a month.
You got this exactly right. It's a sound system. I've traded many systems in the past 6 years. I've started a few system threads in the past. I trade a lot of stuff but I give each system it's own account. I only spend 5 minutes on this system so it gives me a lot of time to try my other strategies. I know this works because of been trading this system for over a year on my accounts.

Keep an eye on the account if you're sceptical...
  • #22
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:07pm Dec 22, 2012 7:07pm
Good job bro,
  • #23
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:16pm Dec 22, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting forexmnstr
Wow... thank you ... even worse ... 10k loss your right ... it will be 5 months to liquidation ... fastest way to lose money ... anyway if he analysed the market carefully before he enters his strategy may work

I am not saying that it can't be done, I am not condemning the system.....

I am just curious how long it has been tested, cause we all know that only time can show us how good a system is....

Can't wait to see more....good luck my friend
  • #24
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:20pm Dec 22, 2012 7:20pm
12.20.2012 11:16 12.20.2012 13:44 EURUSD Buy 6.00 1.31783 1.32783 1.32683 1.32783 10.0 2h 28m 1.00%
You Bought right at supply... if you wouldnt have made it out of the trade with just the 10 pips, your stop wouldve been hit

have you considered taking off 50% at 10 pips , setting your stop loss to BE and let the rest run?

this may return a lot more profit?
  • #25
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:40pm Dec 22, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting Infest
12.20.2012 11:16 12.20.2012 13:44 EURUSD Buy 6.00 1.31783...
This is a very good suggestion. 10 pips is very tight for a BE though. Gaining .5% is what I would have to sittle for instead of the 1%. But the other 50% could ride a long ways. I've got a few trend indicators that could help with the exit or I could just exit at the next S/R level.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll look into this more.
  • #26
  • Dec 23, 2012 10:20am Dec 23, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Cubbybgood
This is a very good suggestion. 10 pips is very tight for a BE though. Gaining .5% is what I would have to sittle for instead of the 1%. But the other 50% could ride a long ways. I've got a few trend indicators that could help with the exit or I could just exit at the next S/R level.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll look into this more.

Still think you're better off setting 2 separate trades, one with TP and one without otherwise you have to be around at the exact moment your trade reaches your 10 pip target - unless you're using an alert of some sorts?

Have you though of automating your trading style? Don't know what indi you use to gauge trend direction? I use 2 particular EMA's on the 30min or 15 min charts. Price action action above or below dictates trend direction.

Rgds
  • #27
  • Dec 23, 2012 10:40am Dec 23, 2012 10:40am
Quoting jmtini
Still think you're better off setting 2 separate trades, one with TP and one without otherwise you have to be around at the exact moment your trade reaches your 10 pip target - unless you're using an alert of some sorts?

Have you though of automating your trading style? Don't know what indi you use to gauge trend direction? I use 2 particular EMA's on the 30min or 15 min charts. Price action action above or below dictates trend direction.

Rgds
The Loktom indi for metatrader 4 can be adjusted to do that... negative side effect is to keep the program open, but you can also trade with your smartphone and the settings you put in in the loktom indi will take care for the rest of the trade (several TP steps possibel etc)
  • #28
  • Dec 23, 2012 6:52pm Dec 23, 2012 6:52pm
do you realized that with a 25% monthly, wich is apparently not enough for you, you will be multimillionaire in 2 or 3 years?

have you backtesting you strategy ? do you have a big sample? do you realize that with a 1-10 R:R ratio you have to be right about 90% of time to make money in long run? and with that little ratio you will need like a 100,000 trades sample to have a decent amount of what your true "rights" are

also with that 10:100 pips risk rewars i could bet you have no Idea how, and why the markets moves, just a guess....

kid, just save your money and stop trading, or better spend 100 or 200 dollars in a back-testing software and see how fast you ruin the virtual money with that strategy

best of wishes anyway
  • #29
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:39pm Dec 23, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting shark10
do you realized that with a 25% monthly, wich is apparently not enough for you, you will be multimillionaire in 2 or 3 years?

have you backtesting you strategy ? do you have a big sample? do you realize that with a 1-10 R:R ratio you have to be right about 90% of time to make money in long run? and with that little ratio you will need like a 100,000 trades sample to have a decent amount of what your true "rights" are

also with that 10:100 pips risk rewars i could bet you have no Idea how, and why the markets moves, just a guess....

kid,...
I'm not really sure what this post is supposed to prove. That you're right and I'm wrong? That I'm bound for failure? I put up this live account for a reason. To avoid people bugging me about the risk reward ratio and to see that this type of trading can work. Sounds like you're assuming that I'm some noob just throwing money around. You think my client/buddy would have had me trade his live 51k account if he didn't see tuns of proof that this system works long term? I think you're a bit of a newby for not assuming I've taken the proper steps for trading such a large account...
  • #30
  • Dec 24, 2012 1:28am Dec 24, 2012 1:28am
Quoting shark10
do you realized that with a 25% monthly, wich is apparently not enough for you, you will be multimillionaire in 2 or 3 years?

have you backtesting you strategy ? do you have a big sample? do you realize that with a 1-10 R:R ratio you have to be right about 90% of time to make money in long run? and with that little ratio you will need like a 100,000 trades sample to have a decent amount of what your true "rights" are

also with that 10:100 pips risk rewars i could bet you have no Idea how, and why the markets moves, just a guess....

kid,...
This post is supposed to prove that shark10 is an expert... in his dreams!!
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #31
  • Dec 24, 2012 11:49am Dec 24, 2012 11:49am
yeah sorry for my manners , I hate criticizing people and now I realized that is what I just did, so take my apologies again

it's just your system looks like so much fantasy to me

gl anyway
  • #32
  • Dec 24, 2012 12:46pm Dec 24, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting shark10
yeah sorry for my manners , I hate criticizing people and now I realized that is what I just did, so take my apologies again

it's just your system looks like so much fantasy to me

gl anyway
Thanks for the apology.

It's perfectly normal to be sceptical. I'm not saying I'm an expert and this is the only way to trade. I'm just saying this is one way. I know the 100 pip SL seems huge but markets jump all over the place hitting so many traders Stop Losses. I wanted a system that was 95% profitable and had a lot of room to move. You know, just in case market decides to stagger or dip against the trend.

When I have a loss it's because I bought at or near the top/bottom of the trend. We all know it's impossible to know when the trend is going to change and that's why I got rid of S/R in this system. Just because there is a big S/R there does not mean that price will reverse. In order for me to have a loss the trend has to change entirely on the 5, 15, 30, 1 and 4 hour charts.

I have other systems that have much better risk reward ratios of 1:3 but they take a lot more chart time and give a lot more stress. Stress is a traders worst nightmare so that's why I avoid it with a passion.

Anyway,
Happy Trading and Happy Holidays everyone!
  • #33
  • Dec 24, 2012 2:47pm Dec 24, 2012 2:47pm
Hi

Can you maybe give some tips how you enter your trades? Do you only trade with naked charts?

Regards
  • #34
  • Dec 24, 2012 2:56pm Dec 24, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Thanks for the apology.

It's perfectly normal to be sceptical. I'm not saying I'm an expert and this is the only way to trade. I'm just saying this is one way. I know the 100 pip SL seems huge but markets jump all over the place hitting so many traders Stop Losses. I wanted a system that was 95% profitable and had a lot of room to move. You know, just in case market decides to stagger or dip against the trend.

When I have a loss it's because I bought at or near the top/bottom of the trend. We all know it's impossible to know when the trend...
I've been using a very similar system for a while now. 100 pips SL but flexible TP targets. Here's what I mean by flexible TP: if I hit 10 pips within an hour of placing the trade, I will move my SL to protect 10 pips of profit and will use a TS to capture as many pips as possible. If I do not hit 10 pips in an hour I simply close the position with whatever I have (profit or loss). I average 92.8% accuracy so I rarely have to deal with losses and when I make a mistake I close the trade fast to limit the damage. I only trade the London opening, at 3pm here. I moved to Asia in part to make trading easier on my mind and body because I had a very hard time trading in the middle of the night when I lived in Montreal (NY time).

I've been quite successful so far and I think that has much to do with the fact that I limit myself to one trade per day, regardless of how many opportunities there might be. I also never trade if I do not feel in perfect shape that day, both mentally and physically. As you said, stress is a trader's worst nightmare and frankly if a trader cannot control himself/herself than I really wonder how that person thinks he/she will be able to make the right decisions in what is probably one of the most intense business environment in the world.
  • #35
  • Dec 24, 2012 4:50pm Dec 24, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting valdor
I've been using a very similar system for a while now. 100 pips SL but flexible TP targets. Here's what I mean by flexible TP: if I hit 10 pips within an hour of placing the trade, I will move my SL to protect 10 pips of profit and will use a TS to capture as many pips as possible. If I do not hit 10 pips in an hour I simply close the position with whatever I have (profit or loss). I average 92.8% accuracy so I rarely have to deal with losses and when I make a mistake I close the trade fast to limit the damage. I only trade the London opening, at...

Sounds interesting and really agree with you about the stress. That's why I'm going over to semi-automated trading. I say semi-automated because I don't believe there's any EA one can leave totally to it's own devices.Still have to check in once or twice a day to make sure of the trend- but Robots don't have any emotions and can't get stressed out! I have time and time again realised that I would have closed out a particular trade if I had been trading manually that eventually yielded 50 - 100 pips. It's the "fear factor" that needs to be eliminated, once one does that you can start winning instead of losing.

Rgds
  • #36
  • Dec 24, 2012 9:17pm Dec 24, 2012 9:17pm
I'm impressed. I would love to hear how to spend 5 minutes and be 95% accurate.

I'm spending hours looking at the chart, and I would be happy with 20% per month.

Would like to hear how it only takes 5 minutes, so you would open a chart before market opens, and then already placed limit orders to trade?
  • #37
  • Dec 24, 2012 10:15pm Dec 24, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting Jb3
I'm impressed. I would love to hear how to spend 5 minutes and be 95% accurate.

I'm spending hours looking at the chart, and I would be happy with 20% per month.

Would like to hear how it only takes 5 minutes, so you would open a chart before market opens, and then already placed limit orders to trade?

5 minutes ... taking a leak will take longer
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #38
  • Dec 25, 2012 3:45am Dec 25, 2012 3:45am
With those figures I suspect you might have big drawdowns, which of course do not help to reduce stress and pressure. That is a really important point. 9-25% per month is definitely enough, but it is sustainable in the long term? I really doubt it.

How would you feel if you're trading for a living and suddenly you're facing a 50% drawdown? I prefer low frequency, high probability trades with small drawdowns.
  • #39
  • Dec 25, 2012 6:10am Dec 25, 2012 6:10am
Cubbybgood - The system so far looks promising, good returns, Congratulations ! I like the fact that its far easy to get 10 pips from market day in day out every day. 95% accuracy is what defines this system, anything below 95% is marginally profitable & anything below 90% is losing month. But with 10 pips to achieve I think its very difficult to hit 100 pips SL as you rightly mentioned it can only happen if the entire main trend is about to reverse, & everyone knows trend reversal is not everyday stuff. Good enough when you have more strategy & this one is working like a bonus or retirement fund scheme. But making this only strategy for living is bit risky even though its more easy.
  • #40
  • Dec 25, 2012 7:33am Dec 25, 2012 7:33am
Quoting valdor
I've been using a very similar system for a while now. 100 pips SL but flexible TP targets. Here's what I mean by flexible TP: if I hit 10 pips within an hour of placing the trade, I will move my SL to protect 10 pips of profit and will use a TS to capture as many pips as possible. If I do not hit 10 pips in an hour I simply close the position with whatever I have (profit or loss). I average 92.8% accuracy so I rarely have to deal with losses and when I make a mistake I close the trade fast to limit the damage. I only trade the London opening, at...

This is a really interesting concept! t's nice to here that there is flexibility in trading like this. Thanks for the post!
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