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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #18,181
  • Dec 23, 2012 2:32am Dec 23, 2012 2:32am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Look at the attached chart below. An example using GU.
Can you think of 5 technical reasons why that candle is a high probability sell entry.
Post you answer to share with everyone here.
Reasons..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Home work.png Size: 75 KB
  • #18,182
  • Dec 23, 2012 3:07am Dec 23, 2012 3:07am
Quoting jordfx
Already tried using the 'cleanup' feature to edit or delete posts but doesn't seem to work like that? Seems it's meant for reporting other peoples questionable remarks to admin I think? Pls enlighten if otherwise. Tnx.

Hi jordfx,

use the cleanup 'Report Note' and write to the FF administrator requesting him/her to delete your post####.

Need to give them some time to do that for you.

regards,

E
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,183
  • Dec 23, 2012 3:18am Dec 23, 2012 3:18am
Quoting Ramjet
Reasons..
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1356258884

Good reply. But there are more technical reasons than those you mention. These should help you make good trade decisions later for example, to scale-in and 'Let Profits Run'.

With such a good setup and trigger, this is how your can manage your trade(s).

Using R-Multiple, with initial SL 20 pips which is your R.
Scale-out your trade(s) to take partial profits.
Scale-in new additional trades using your booked profits.

See example attached below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Trade Management Example using R-Multiple .png Size: 75 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,184
  • Dec 23, 2012 3:23am Dec 23, 2012 3:23am
Scripts for drawing the BUY and SELL lines using R-Miltiple Trade Management are posted here in this thread.
Goto Page 699 post #10,482 and download them and save thm to your MT4 folder/Expert/Script ...folder.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post6118879

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,185
  • Edited 4:29am Dec 23, 2012 3:57am | Edited 4:29am
[quote=Hcp;6318754]
Quoting emmanuel7788
Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Hi Emmanuel
first thing i do is go to H4 and there find the previous candle is a dogi just below 10ema, and the current candle open below 10ema,
PA is making a lower high also in H4 good
On 15m, that candle is breaking a support line good
the previous candle is a hammer rejecting ema10 good
with the ema increasing its slope going down.
away from ema200 good
sorry...

Hi Hcp,

Thank you for posting and sharing.

some good reasons.
Taking the approach from higher Tf like H4 is good.
But if you start from D TF, you will see price consoldiation in narrow range on the 20Dec after the recent bullish rally. If you use broker server time GMT0, you will see a Day Inside Bar on 20 Dec.
On 21 Dec, Asian session will also show narrow range consoldation before LO. In fact, some charts may show H4 InsideBar before LO.

using Previous two days 19 and 20 Dec day LOWs as the Support region, the breakoou below this support is a good potential for a intra-week retracement back into the week range.

Have a look at the Fibo levels of the Prev week 50. 10 to 14 Dec Low to High.

The M15 setup and trigger looks good with good potential.

Hope this help you.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,186
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:28am Dec 23, 2012 4:28am
Another way to look for trades:

Trade the intra-week retracements of a trending pair.

Use the weekly fibo retracememt of the previous week and look for PASR.

See chart example shown here using H1 TF for illustration.
Remember how we approach the market every day and trade using M15 chart TF, look for the trigger.

To download the Weekly Fibo indicator, go to the Platform Tech forum and read there and download.
Link here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=349933
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Intra-week retracements.png Size: 58 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,187
  • Edited 5:48am Dec 23, 2012 5:04am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Look at the attached chart below. An example using GU.
Can you think of 5 technical reasons why that candle is a high probability sell entry.
Post you answer to share with everyone here.

hello brother emmanuel,
i'd like to give it a try too.

to approach this task i did a top-down analysis. i figured that H1 would be enough for analyzing purposes.


H1: the 15m candle you marked in the chart closes the h1 candle i marked with a blue triangle in my chart below. the red line that is just above indicates yesterday's open, which, if we look to the left, appears to be temporary support.

so here are the reasons to take the candle you marked:

the previous H1 candle to the one marked on my chart rejects and breaks confluence area of RN, yesterday's open, 1h 10EMA and 1h 50EMA. also note how the 50ema acted as dynamic support on thursday and then got broken and 1-2-3-ed on friday. so potentially we could take this one as our trigger as well.

however, looking for a good trigger on the 15m time frame we see that price is at this moment is still tangling around yesterday's open area at and doesn't allow for a good stop and the rejection is not clear yet. however, few candles later (at the one emmanuel marked) we are well below our confluence area so now we have a higher probability that price can go to the next reference point which is the ADR low. that would be 21 pips from there. if you were a S/R trader you would probably even get a higher pippage out of it lol. SL would have been ca 10 pips for me.

so my five reasons to sum up are:
1)RN rejection
2) yesterday's open rejection
3) temporary support rejection
4) 10 ema rejection
5) 50ema (temporary dynamic support yesterday) rejection

i hope i didn't miss anything although it's very likely that i did lol.

please everyone feel free to correct me cus i'm just trying to learn.
thanks for your time

peace and love to all of you. merry xmas
steph

EDIT: of course i mean yesterday's OPEN, not close

H1:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 1.png Size: 45 KB





M15:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 2.png Size: 42 KB
  • #18,188
  • Dec 23, 2012 5:59am Dec 23, 2012 5:59am
Quoting 99problems
hello brother emmanuel,
i'd like to give it a try too.

to approach this task i did a top-down analysis. i figured that H1 would be enough for analyzing purposes.


H1: the 15m candle you marked in the chart closes the h1 candle i marked with a blue triangle in my chart below. the red line that is just above indicates yesterday's open, which, if we look to the left, appears to be temporary support.

so here are the reasons to take the candle you marked:

the previous H1 candle to the one marked on my chart rejects and breaks confluence...
Thanks for your reply and post.

You have a good eye for details. Very important to be a chartist trader.

CONFLUENCE of Support and Resistance is very important to give a high probability for a PA setup.

Another process of trading which I did not ask is:

What were the risk(s) of this trade setup. Once we identified the setup, we need to identify the risk(s), we should know how to mitigate the risk(s) when we manage our trade(s).


regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #18,189
  • Dec 23, 2012 6:54am Dec 23, 2012 6:54am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi jordfx,

use the cleanup 'Report Note' and write to the FF administrator requesting him/her to delete your post####.

Need to give them some time to do that for you.

regards,

E
Tnx buddy! Will do!
  • #18,190
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:30am Dec 23, 2012 7:30am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Another way to look for trades:

Trade the intra-week retracements of a trending pair.

Use the weekly fibo retracememt of the previous week and look for PASR.

See chart example shown here using H1 TF for illustration.
Remember how we approach the market every day and trade using M15 chart TF, look for the trigger.

To download the Weekly Fibo indicator, go to the Platform Tech forum and read there and download.
Link here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=349933

PASR = Price Action Support Resistance???
  • #18,191
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:41am Dec 23, 2012 7:41am
Quoting jordfx
PASR = Price Action Support Resistance???
Hey Jordfx..

Yep, that's correct!
  • #18,192
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:47am Dec 23, 2012 7:47am
The “real” Forex market close:

Trading using the daily closing price that closes at 5pm New York time is important because this marks the end of the current Forex trading day and the start of the new trading day as New Zealand trading opens. Closing prices are the most important price in the market because they show the settlement between the bulls and the bears, and because the New York trading session is the second biggest behind London in Forex trading volume, it’s very important to see this closing settlement at the New York close instead of at some other more arbitrary time.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.n...40096676_n.jpg
  • #18,193
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:50am Dec 23, 2012 7:50am
Quoting Ramjet
Hey Jordfx..

Yep, that's correct!
Tnx buddy!
  • #18,194
  • Dec 23, 2012 8:34am Dec 23, 2012 8:34am
[quote=Hcp;6318754]
Quoting emmanuel7788
Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Hi Emmanuel
first thing i do is go to H4 and there find the previous candle is a dogi just below 10ema, and the current candle open below 10ema,
PA is making a lower high also in H4
On 15m, that candle is breaking a support line
the previous candle is a hammer rejecting ema10
with the ema increasing its slope going down.
away from ema200
sorry if im wrong on sthg.
thank you !!
Pretty much covered but:

1) 1.63 resistance level Apr and Sep '12 (and before that)
2) RN 1.63
3) W R2 1.6284
4) The D positive close on 20th failure to break the prev days high
5) The failure to follow through on 21st on prev days positive close
6) 4hr lower high at 1.6295
7) 1hr flow clearly flipped to lower high on 20th and 21st again
8) 1hr shooting star with little/no lower wick at the session/Y lows.

I know many of these reasons are pretty close to each other. In a nutshell I'd sum up as key resistance level proven several times in the past 1.63. Trade the reaction to the level, in this case the flow of market flipped from HH HL to LH.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #18,195
  • Dec 23, 2012 2:02pm Dec 23, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Look at the attached chart below. An example using GU.
Can you think of 5 technical reasons why that candle is a high probability sell entry.
Post you answer to share with everyone here.
Hi Emmanuel

thanks for your exercise. Very good analysis have already been posted about the entry you point out. I have nothing more to add but I would like to have your view on another setup: when analysing your chart, I noticed a trigger candle before the one you mention (see chart) that I would have probably taken if I hide the candles which follow that candle. It seems it's a too early signal, after the facts. What do you think about that signal? Would you have taken it ?

rgds,

Kyurem
Attached Image
  • #18,196
  • Dec 23, 2012 2:42pm Dec 23, 2012 2:42pm
  •  Hcp
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Everything Has the Meaning You Give | 74 Posts
Emmanuel
thank you for your comments on my analisys, your are so right, maybe it was a bit quickly, now im trying to go through what you have pointed.
  • #18,197
  • Dec 23, 2012 2:53pm Dec 23, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting kyurem
Hi Emmanuel

thanks for your exercise. Very good analysis have already been posted about the entry you point out. I have nothing more to add but I would like to have your view on another setup: when analysing your chart, I noticed a trigger candle before the one you mention (see chart) that I would have probably taken if I hide the candles which follow that candle. It seems it's a too early signal, after the facts. What do you think about that signal? Would you have taken it ?

rgds,

Kyurem
See below - don't trade in sideways ranges like that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,198
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting Surfer
See below - don't trade in sideways ranges like that.
And if I see this correctly London was not open yet.
Thoughts are things
  • #18,199
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm
"Merry Christmas" and a "Happy New Year"..

Hi ya Everyone..

I wanted to wish Loveevery1 and all the followers of this great thread a very "Merry Christmas" and a prosperous "Happy New Year" ahead for all your families and loved ones..

God bless..

Take care,
Adrian
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,200
  • Dec 23, 2012 8:30pm Dec 23, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting kyurem
Hi Emmanuel

thanks for your exercise. Very good analysis have already been posted about the entry you point out. I have nothing more to add but I would like to have your view on another setup: when analysing your chart, I noticed a trigger candle before the one you mention (see chart) that I would have probably taken if I hide the candles which follow that candle. It seems it's a too early signal, after the facts. What do you think about that signal? Would you have taken it ?

rgds,

Kyurem
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1356299804

Hi Kyurem,

I am not sure what is your definition of a trigger candle . I think you need to sort this first.

In back-testing there is always the bias tendency due to hindsight as it is always ‘after the fact’ seeing all the history data. before and after a trigger candle.
However,one trait of being a good trader is the ability to analyse charts based on previous price action at any one point in time on the chart without forming a mentalbeing bias seeing the entire following history data.

To have a winning edge, the trader must have the ability to read chart data and interpret thePrice Action, Trend, Multi-Timeframe reconciliation, Momentum, Support andResistance, Continuation or Reversal, Market Volatility, Market Strength and Range.

When trading price action, we must be able to see the price range, strength and momentum ofthe move prior to that trigger candle.

In the example in your chart above I can sum up all these looking at the previous priceaction before that 'trigger candle' marked. I don’t see , for example, the volatility,nor momentum and strength which is very important to decide on a ‘quality’trigger candle.

With a small initial stop loss in mind, we need to catch the momentum on entry to ensure thatour initial stop will not be threaten after entry. We need to have price momentum so that we can scale-out our trades and/or to move our trade(s) to breakeven quickly as possible. TIMING is very important for all trading action.

Breakout candles are usually fast and furious moving across the key S&R level. Oneof the skills required of a good trader is to position and get into the marketbefore that breakout candle. This takes a lot of chart time and practice inreading the price movement seen using either the price bar or candlestick.

Also pay attention to the Asian session particularly the first 5 hours of the Asian session ( I call Tokyo 5H). Sometimes, we see big movements just after Tokyo lunch time which is hours before Frankfurt open and London open.

Hope this will help with a better understanding.

SEASON's GREETINGS!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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