Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

at last my EU swing trade end at RN 1.33000 Almost to complete the ABCD..
Well.....its counter trend now...

Simply love your trading style buddy! Very elegant! 10years is it? It shows!!!

ramlanne - great trade there.
Would really be interested in how you did this if you are willing to share.

Thx BV :-)
I appreciate yr contribution and consideration

I concur with jordfx. This thread is not about pa but about pa within Arjun's system. We must be vigilant to focus on the system here otherwise in a years time it will be just a hodgepodge of everyone's interests :-)
P

Thanks Mr C

This post could lead to some really interesting discussion.
Your diagram looks like it comes from a book or course.
I am not sure if it references pin bars at tops/bottoms or for continuation moves (pullbacks which are also smaller tops/bottoms really).

Anyway, I spent some time going back through charts finding some pin bar examples (I do this quite often anyway). Try it – it is hard to find examples that look as perfect as in your diagram though.

As far as I know there are 4 main ways to enter after a pin bar. If there are others anyone uses, please contribute to this discussion. I read the James16 thread 3-4 years ago but don’t remember lots of the detail.

Entry Methods:
1. At the open of the next candle
2. Wait for a break above/below
3. Wait for a 50% retrace of the pin bar. Limit order often used.
4. The method you posted

Could also add a pullback to the 10ema perhaps

In the examples in my attachment, I have marked two possible entry points (sometimes three).

The red arrows indicate entries using the method in your diagram – method 4. The yellow arrows are either entries at the open of the next bar after the pin bar closes or after the bottom/top of the pin bar has been broken (methods 1 or 2).

If we assume the stop is placed just beyond the other end of the pin bar, notice how much more risk has to be taken when using the later entry. And yes, I did choose examples with higher range bars prior to the pin bar but they were not hard to find.

Does method 4 keep you out of some losers? No doubt.
Are there still losers with method 4? Sure there are.
Which method has the most losers? (and is this the most important consideration?)

The arguments for methods 2 and 4 are that price is moving in your direction and you can use a stop entry.
To counter that I would add that surely price was moving in your direction for most of the prior bar (the pin bar) and that is enough. It can turn around any time.

If you get in early, surely your position is helped by the people entering after you on either the pin bar break or after other confirmations such as method 4 or lagging indicators?

As your risk is lower with method 1, your R:R ratio must be higher for the same exit price.

Method 3 is promoted my some educators but they seem to use it at will after the fact – “Look at my great entry at the 50% retrace!” Other times they claim to enter at the break when there was only a small or even no retrace. Hmmmmm.
This method reduces the risk the most of all of the methods but you will have to be prepared to miss a lot of moves . . . and there are still losers of course.

I am currently using method 1 mostly. Perfect pin bars are very rare. If it has a longish wick with a smallish body and it is in the right place and there are other supporting factors I try to take the trade. I like smaller stops.
I struggle when this is called an ‘aggressive’ entry. The more confirmations you wait for the more risk you have to take. I think it is a safer entry personally.

Hopefully some of the expert traders here will offer their opinions.

I've had this for some time - might be helpful:

Hi Surfer,

You love surfing I guess......?

Arjun motto .." SHARING IS LOVING" & " PATIENT PAY " .....Unfortunate thats motto are among of my behaviour too.




"You win and you're right."

Trading is not those statements. A trained trader understands success as "I lose good and I’ve wrong small." Trading is called coming out on the small losers' side and being rewarded with knowing how good we have been wrong.It requires a balanced life to sustain the meanness of the markets. I never plan for the bad days, and there are bad days. It is when it affects my lives that I must make a new choice. Either change my behavior or go down in defeat.

I have a choice: Either face the truth of trading or look for the nearest exit.

MY DAILY ROUTINE & RULES

1.OPEN MY LAPTOP AND GO TO WEEKLY & DAILY CHART ...ON MY FORTFOLIO PAIRS E/U ,G/U,E/J,A/U,U/J,U/C
2.IDENTIFY S/R LEVELS ON HTF BY MARKING IT USING HORIZONTAL LINES...RED FOR RESISTANCE , GREEN FOR SUPPORT. (WEEKLY & DAILY CHART)
3.BY NOW THE CHART TELLING ME WHATS ARE THE CURRENT TREND - REFER TO 200 EMA --PA ABOVE UPTREND . PA BELOW DOWN TREND.
4.ZOOM DOWN TO H4 T/FRAME... " LOOK LEFT " (D1 S/R MARKET STRUCTURE LEAVES CLUES). LOOK AT CONFLUENCE OF CURRENT PRICE ACTION (PA) ON MY TRADE TIME FRAME (TTF) AND S/R LEVEL HTF (MARK BEFORE) - MY TTF TRADE ON H4.
5.LOOKS FOR CANDLE PATTERN AND HARMONIC PATTERN OR ANY FAVORATE PATTERN MAY OCCUR HERE- DOUBLE-TOP/H&S/GARTLEY/...ETC
6.PULL IN FIBS FOR FUTHER CONFLUENCE.
7.PREPARED FOR ALL SCENERIO BASED ON MY TRADE PLAN & RULES - LONG-SHORT , CONSOLIDATION, TREND & COUNTER TREND.
8.BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE VALID SIGNAL FROM H1 T/FRAME AND CONFIRM IT ON 15M T/FRAME .
9.PULL THE TRIGGER - EXECUTE THE TRADE.
10.THAT'S IT.

KNOW IT.....USE IT

# ALL PRICE ACTION IS BASED ON MARKET STRUCTURE.

# FOR SUCCESS , WE MUST HAVE A FIRM UNDERSTANDING OF MARKET STRUCTURE AND HOW TO READ THE MULTIPLE CHART/FRAME.

#DO OUR ANALYSIS USING THE SAME STEPS & PROGRESSION SEQUENCE EVERY TIME.

#PREPARED FOR ALL SCENARIOS.

#FOLLOW OUR TRADE PLAN & TRADE SYSTEM FOR VALID SET-UP AND VALID ENTRY SIGNAL.

NO DOUBT , NO GUESSING ..............

HOPE ITS HELP.....

HAVE A CUP OF NESCAFE .... RELAXS

MY EU SWING TRADE BEFORE NEW YORK CLOSE.

Hi ramlanne thanks for your daily routine, Emmanuel posted his a day or two back. Others have also. Both look to approach the day in a very specific organised manner. Sometimes using different words for same ideas.

Ramlanne this is not aimed at you at all. Whilst everyone should be able to post their reasoning for getting to a trade, I agree with the earlier post to keep the thread on track the entry should be based on 15 min charts with the thread ema's. Trend should be straight forward, CT state the reasons for taking.

I trade 2, break above/below on 15 min TF. Pin bars on higher TF's are the signal for a potential trade off 15 min with consideration for SR levels, trend CT etc etc.

hi vantage,

thanks for the reply...you're right man.

keep it up.

" no one plan to failed , but many fail to make a good plan"

cheers..

This is our daily ritual. We look to follow the daily candles as much as possible. Trying to keep things as simple as possible we:

1) try and identify support and resistance levels
2) look for positive/negative closes to follow through the next day (as we believe this will hold true approx 70% of the time)
3) watch for divergence
4) Look for D chart higher lows/lower highs, double tops/bottoms, engulfing candles, hammers/shooting stars, morning/evening star patterns to set up trend moves
5) rsi crossing its moving average or crossing the 50 line

If we are confident that a confluence of the above exists then the next day we will look to trade in 1 direction only. This keeps us out of some head fake moves typically around London open and the US open (weak counter trend 1hr candles in and around US open just as big a fake move as LO).

Entries from 15 min.

Taking the above post 1 step further. Just 2 examples, I honestly didn't cherry pick them, took the last 2 turns where we did not cross the ma. Looking at the SR levels, candle closes and importantly the flow of the market, does it all give a picture that makes sense.

Arrow down 5 Dec. My comments on 6 Dec made around 4.30 gmt.

Recap 5 Dec

EUR - The frequently mentioned resistance level of 1.3115/W R2 pivot held. D close negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. 4hr flow flipped to lower high. 1hr lower high lower low clear.

Selling EUR yesterday was counter trend. In general this requires substantially more information than 1 candle on say a 1hr chart to trigger a trade. We would be looking for a confluence of factors from proven support/resistance levels, W pivots, higher time frame divergence, price showing for some several hours that it does not want to advance.

6 Dec

Interest rate day for GU and EUR, could be a day for caution.

EUR - 1hr flow now lower high lower low. We stopped on W R1. Bias down.

Arrow up 10 Dec. My comments on 11 Dec made around 4.30 gmt.

Recap 10 Dec

EUR support level 1.2880/W M2 held, 1hr had a higher low following divergence, showing over a 12 hour period that it did not want to go lower.

If you want to go counter trend you need multiple reasons to do so.

11 Dec

EUR - Positive close on D but we are still below the 8 lwma and RSI has not crossed its signal line (but on 50 level). 4hr and 1hr flow now higher low. Bias up.

Just showing that you can do a basic analysis for the potential for the day. If pa pans out in line with your view fine. If it doesn't have a critical look and make a decision based on what the market is giving you. You'd need very good reasons (and trade rules) to deviate from your days view. The majority of the days (we feel 70%)your direction should be clear. The rest of the days either not making sense (so perhaps stay away) or falling into the turn day category where you might consider buying or selling 9in line with trade rules).

Final post for the day/year who knows (thats the plan, who knows what the thread will give you).

The amount of chart time needed to gain a better insight is often mentioned, its a lot. Thats true but I do believe a good method and some structure when back testing should shorten that learning curve considerably.

So I'll suggest take the time to back test this method looking from D chart for 30 days uptrend, downtrend and sideways market. Thats 90 days of research, not 5 years. Mark off previous SR levels (in need go back a year or two for that) where did the market have proven turns.

How do your 15 min entry candles look (break of Asian recent trend, pull back + revert to trend), how do 15 min ema's look, what time do the successful trades happen (LO, pre/early US open, post US news), what stops are needed, what are the size of runs (should help for TP's) and how long do they take to realise?

Then in a 30 day trend you will invariably have a significant D retrace and reversal to trend (a D HL/LH dble top/bottom). As you never know if a reversal is start of new trend in opposite direction or pause in existing trend assess what your flow is like and what 15 min entries look like.

I think thats it back test 90 days, this should give you the plan and confidence to stick to it next year. Safe in the knowledge that you have an edge to take the first move in session in line with the trend as per the thread.

Have a good 'un see you next year.

Vantage has said it all I think... Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance to all... Most of all... I wish all who read this love, compassion and kindness!

A Christmas gift to all - thanks for all you have taught me.

DISCLAIMER!!!
Posts 15462 to 15466 were copied from Gibrils trading journal/thread and shared here for learning purposes only. It was indeed a goldmine of useful info(apart from the fake trades taken of courses). The signature on those posts was copied also to indicate the author of the posts AND NOT MY SIGNATURE. Tnx. Trade safe.

Cleanup your own Posts:

Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Look at the attached chart below. An example using GU.
Can you think of 5 technical reasons why that candle is a high probability sell entry.
Post you answer to share with everyone here.

[quote=emmanuel7788;6318731]Weekend Exercise week 51:

Now for some back-testing exercise.

Hi Emmanuel
first thing i do is go to H4 and there find the previous candle is a dogi just below 10ema, and the current candle open below 10ema,
PA is making a lower high also in H4
On 15m, that candle is breaking a support line
the previous candle is a hammer rejecting ema10
with the ema increasing its slope going down.
away from ema200
sorry if im wrong on sthg.
thank you !!

Already tried using the 'cleanup' feature to edit or delete posts but doesn't seem to work like that? Seems it's meant for reporting other peoples questionable remarks to admin I think? Pls enlighten if otherwise. Tnx.