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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #18,101
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:40pm Dec 20, 2012 11:40pm
Bull fighting Bear...??? vote for winner???

i support bear....Lol
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  • #18,102
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:00am Dec 21, 2012 12:00am
Quoting Davit
Trade was based on Price Action and fib retrace.
GU+32pips
I would of let it run more but we got important news release on GU tonight and did not want to risk losing the gains.
Just checking your pa thinking. You had a positive close then a doji then a hammer that could not go higher. Did you sell because of the doji? Any reason why you didn't wait for pa to flip over for a neg close or upper wick?

Just wondering if you could be more specific.

Nice trade though.

Cheers
  • #18,103
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:08am Dec 21, 2012 12:08am
End of the world dump in equity futures has already happened..lol..what now?
We are still alive..so it means a better world has arisen..

Well, it looks like talks on US fiscal cliff have failed for now..Could be an interesting day, watch out for potential larger volatily within already preholiday low liquidity environment..potential slippage..
Bets to stay away, or decrease lots..

Goid bless,

Ciara

Below, equity futures dump (-50 pts in S/P 500 March 2013 futures).
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Ideas shape the course of history
  • #18,104
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:12am Dec 21, 2012 12:12am
Quoting Ciara
Bets to stay away, or decrease lots..
World's ending bro.

Time to go all in.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #18,105
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:28am Dec 21, 2012 12:28am
Quoting Xhale12
World's ending bro.

Time to go all in.
Yes, 50% long and 50% short..who needs SL orders..

Ciara
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #18,106
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:19am Dec 21, 2012 1:19am
Quoting Vantage
Just checking your pa thinking. You had a positive close then a doji then a hammer that could not go higher. Did you sell because of the doji? Any reason why you didn't wait for pa to flip over for a neg close or upper wick?

Just wondering if you could be more specific.

Nice trade though.

Cheers
Hi Vantage
Yes you are correct I saw 2 indecisive candles plus 38.2 Fib confluence and placed my order for short.I was confidant that price will retrace back hence didn't bail out when it went up a little more before turning south.
In retrospect I should of waited for confirmation before pulling the trigger and I am not so proud of the trade.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,107
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:30am Dec 21, 2012 1:30am
Quoting Ciara
End of the world dump in equity futures has already happened..lol..what now?
We are still alive..so it means a better world has arisen..

Well, it looks like talks on US fiscal cliff have failed for now..Could be an interesting day, watch out for potential larger volatily within already preholiday low liquidity environment..potential slippage..
Bets to stay away, or decrease lots..

Goid bless,

Ciara

Below, equity futures dump (-50 pts in S/P 500 March 2013 futures).
The sellers no doubt happy that come the end of the world they've banked some profits.

Reminds me of an old "Not the 9 o'clock News" programme (giving away my age that must go back 30-40 years??). A UK news parody comedy show. Back in the 70's or whatever there must have been some other world tension/doomsday crisis story. There were also some great divisions between organised labour and the government (probably Maggie Thatcher time).

Anyway the joke, the union guy (with straight face) was arguing that come the end of the world 5 million British workers would (wait for it) die 'unemployed'. Still cracks me up.

Weird though what you think of from time to time.
  • #18,108
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:30am Dec 21, 2012 1:30am
My thought process on GU tonight
I will look for shorts at 61.8 Fib retrace at 6270
I believe London will take it there before finally heading south.Or it could go even earlier fib number
38.2 is hitting at 50EMA and 200EMA a strong confluence at 6258

I know PA is slightly bearish now but looks can be deceiving.I must wait for London open.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #18,109
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:05am Dec 21, 2012 2:05am
hi guys,

the pa is very near the last week high... perhap's a sign for the end of the world ?
let's see.....

Peace
dom
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  • #18,110
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:10am Dec 21, 2012 2:10am
Quoting Surfer
Good question.
If it went south I would have been stopped out for -10.
It went north and my reward:risk ratio was initially nearly 5:1 and better than this once I tightened my stop after the first green bar.

If the odds were 50% I would happily take this trade 1000 times.

Three things to consider.

1. When you are back testing your rules, do you consider the news that came out during those sessions? I bet you don't.
2. Have you noticed that breakouts following news often continue in the direction of the existing trend?
3. Should...

Actually, if I see a valid but failed trade during backtesting I will go and find out if there was a red news at that time... An example occured on a NFP friday.
I won't trade 1 hour to NFP even if I expect it to go in my direction.
  • #18,111
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:15am Dec 21, 2012 2:15am
Exactly to the pip.
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  • #18,112
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:35am Dec 21, 2012 2:35am
Hi pkimnyc,

I will keep ur words in mind! ( when the momentum is strong, look for the weakness of the market (divergence) instead of focusing on a single reversal bar. )

Hi Vantage,

I got ur words in mind too! (could be a sell but just as easily a dip in uptrend for buys. You never know what the market will give you)

Hi emmanuel,

I understand your teaching! ( Wait for the comfirm reversal then look for first retracement.)
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  • #18,113
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:40am Dec 21, 2012 2:40am
THis thread is about price action, so i would like to share something simple with you guys.
after spending a few thousand hours in front of my screen I noticed that, in any time frame, the simple color of the candles tell us many things...
Have you noticed that ?

My english is not good, so i prefer to join a chart (EU 4H, actually)

Peace
dom
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  • #18,114
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:07am Dec 21, 2012 3:07am
my yesterday AU
I was confident to let it run because the price formed new LH/LL
I closed on daily 50ema
I think it was risky...perhaps newbie luck ?
Please excuse me if my trades (and explanations) are not very smart but i have not found my exact trading style yet...

Peace
dom
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  • #18,115
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:36am Dec 21, 2012 3:36am
Quoting emmanuel7788
This is a trade management question. Specifically, this is about how to manage trade exits.

You will exit your trade(s) when your protective stop(s) get taken by the market.

When you do your trading plan, you need to think of what you need to do to achieve this "Let Profits Run".

I do not use OB/OS condition for exit decision.

CS PA is good, but I do not use that alone.

[size=3]I suggest you think of what is your Trade Invalidation when you decide on trade...
Hi ET

Just a small question

You stated that you exit a trade when your protective stop gets hits
Is that something that you will ALWAYS do when exiting i.e. one of the ways of "Letting the Profits Run" as much as possible
To me, it seems a better way of exiting by bringing up the SL close to the price, than just hitting a TP
In a way it is like getting another crack at the whip before the trade ends especially if your winning open trade gets near to a major news announcement
Thanks for all your help everyone here , it is quality reading this , every post
  • #18,116
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:48am Dec 21, 2012 3:48am
A few winning trades often misleads amateur traders into thinking they are ‘onto something’. But what usually happens is they hit a big winner and then they give it all right back, and usually more. This cycle of winning here and there and then giving all your gains back, works to keep traders in a cycle of gambling in blind hope, and it slowly depletes their accounts until their gone. Humans are wired to fall prey to this trap of randomly distributed rewards. What happens is once we hit a few winners via luck, we sort of view that as some ‘special trading ability’ and then we just end up gambling our money away in a futile attempt to keep winning. There are scientific studies that show that we condition ourselves to repeat self-destructive behavior like this for the allure of a large randomly distributed reward…playing the lottery comes to mind here…or going to the casino and hitting one nice sized jackpot and then spending countless hours and dollars trying to hit another.
You have to recognize this gambling behavior and try to break through it, because it really is a part of our wiring to trade like a gambler. Luckily, we have large brains with highly-developed pre-frontal cortexes that can plan and think long-term amongst other things. This is our primary tool to use in defending against our more primitive brain areas that tend to naturally dominate most of our actions in the markets and cause us to gamble.
A professional forex trader is constantly managing their risk and thinking about it. They are disciplined and they follow a strict routine, they know they are in the business of trading and they treat it as a business. A pro trader is not fazed by a winning trade or even a series of winning trades; they are emotionally neutral on a loser or a winner. Professional traders are more emotionally excited about their ability to stay true to their trading plans and capital preservation plans than they are about the outcome of any one trade…because pro traders know if they can manage their bankroll properly they will end up out front.




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  • #18,117
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:51am Dec 21, 2012 3:51am
Quoting BorisViven
my yesterday AU
I was confident to let it run because the price formed new LH/LL
I closed on daily 50ema
I think it was risky...perhaps newbie luck ?
Please excuse me if my trades (and explanations) are not very smart but i have not found my exact trading style yet...

Peace
dom

You're nailing it bro!
  • #18,118
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:52am Dec 21, 2012 3:52am
i'm short @ 1.3214 on eu and sl=be
+19 for now
let's see...

peace
dom
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  • #18,119
  • Dec 21, 2012 4:18am Dec 21, 2012 4:18am
Quoting jordfx
[b] [font=Arial][size=3]What happens is once we hit a few winners via luck, we sort of view that as some ‘special trading ability’ and then we just end up gambling our money away in a futile attempt to keep winning.
Nice one, I've often said the WORST thing that can happen is that a new trader has a few winners that are none system. Makes them think they can trade any move the market makes. We all know that ultimately ends in tears. The bad habits created take ages to change.
  • #18,120
  • Dec 21, 2012 4:26am Dec 21, 2012 4:26am
Quoting BorisViven
i'm short @ 1.3214 on eu and sl=be
+19 for now
let's see...

peace
dom
NEWBIE MISTAKE

my plan was a scalp on M5 (looking the market today) with a clear target.
but, because of my greed, i decided, when i was in the trade, to let it run
result : BE hit !!

I still have to learn..

This is to show to the newbies that we have to stick to the rules and follow the plan (good traders here said it millions times) !!!

Peace
dom
ps: really sorry if i disturb anyone with my M5 chart, if it is the case, please forget my post..
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