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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #1,021
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:01pm Dec 20, 2012 2:01pm
Quoting andrewsurfer
Hello C-12
Could You help me and tell me why those levels were wrong and You didn't open trade in those circled areas? Still don't know which level will be ok and which should we avoid.
hi andrew,

this is my view ....... and just check on 15 M chart if the price go through 1.3255 or stay below 1.3250.....

cheers
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  • #1,022
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:33pm Dec 20, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting mrhb30jr
hi andrew,

this is my view ....... and just check on 15 M chart if the price go through 1.3255 or stay below 1.3250.....

cheers
So You enter short when bar will touch the zone and close under the zone and long if closes above the zone?
  • #1,023
  • Dec 20, 2012 4:01pm Dec 20, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting andrewsurfer
Hello C-12
Could You help me and tell me why those levels were wrong and You didn't open trade in those circled areas? Still don't know which level will be ok and which should we avoid.
It's not that they were totally wrong since price did react to them. The first one I wouldn't take as it's a straight retest of retest of another level.

The second level you marked I did actually take an 8 pip loss on. The key here is identifying the levels where 70 - 80% of them work and then let the winners run to target or longer and cut your lossers fast. Also getting to break even after a handful of pips is useful to keep your win rate high.
  • #1,024
  • Dec 20, 2012 4:09pm Dec 20, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting C-12
It's not that they were totally wrong since price did react to them. The first one I wouldn't take as it's a straight retest of retest of another level.

The second level you marked I did actually take an 8 pip loss on. The key here is identifying the levels where 70 - 80% of them work and then let the winners run to target or longer and cut your lossers fast. Also getting to break even after a handful of pips is useful to keep your win rate high.
Although i struggle with this since price often keep coming back one more time and then goes to ones favor... this would bail out my stop at BE lots of times...

But i guess you also take your 7 pips if you feel the level is not very strong and on others you let them run for the rest of the day
http://s7.directupload.net/images/121220/qafbj6h2.gif

heres a scalp i took today... this one for example is one which you could take off 50% after 7-8 pips and let the rest run to the upper supply
  • #1,025
  • Dec 20, 2012 4:14pm Dec 20, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting Infest
Although i struggle with this since price often keep coming back one more time and then goes to ones favor... this would bail out my stop at BE lots of times...

But i guess you also take your 7 pips if you feel the level is not very strong and on others you let them run for the rest of the day
I used to get tons of BE stopouts. Very annoying but it helped my psychology by avoiding losses.

I do this far less these days since most trades price with often come back to entry before moving on. I don't trade with the auto BE on anymore.
  • #1,026
  • Dec 20, 2012 4:52pm Dec 20, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting C-12
I used to get tons of BE stopouts. Very annoying but it helped my psychology by avoiding losses.

I do this far less these days since most trades price with often come back to entry before moving on. I don't trade with the auto BE on anymore.
C12 did you ever see the response to your inquiry about the semafor? You can adjust the multiplier so it will show htf semafor lvls. Check the other forum I think its a factor of 70 you put in.
  • #1,027
  • Dec 20, 2012 5:36pm Dec 20, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting andrewsurfer
So You enter short when bar will touch the zone and close under the zone and long if closes above the zone?

Hi andrewsur.....

I'm not entry short from that level, i watch this area, my entry point is this blue line on this chart, C12 is the correct person who explain his entry style ......


cheers
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  • #1,028
  • Dec 20, 2012 5:38pm Dec 20, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting C-12
I used to get tons of BE stopouts. Very annoying but it helped my psychology by avoiding losses.

I do this far less these days since most trades price with often come back to entry before moving on. I don't trade with the auto BE on anymore.
hi C12,

Agree with you, thanks for share it

Cheers
  • #1,029
  • Dec 20, 2012 8:32pm Dec 20, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting C-12
I used to get tons of BE stopouts. Very annoying but it helped my psychology by avoiding losses.

I do this far less these days since most trades price with often come back to entry before moving on. I don't trade with the auto BE on anymore.
Thats good. When you first opened this thread I was going to suggest setting your stop above or below the tallest or lowest rejection from your zone but i figured you'd get to that point eventually. It's good to watch your trading evolve so steadily.
  • #1,030
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:24am Dec 21, 2012 2:24am
Quoting Infest
These levels are not always working... the first short level wasnt that great, the second level was okish but it came for the second retest, already had been tested before... not a fresh level..

But most important always check the US Index... we are at major demand right now, so be cautious when you go long and USD Index is not at a high supply level
also if i may give my 2p, i'd look at where the price is in the supply and demand curve for a reliable guide to the strength of the level.

if you were going out to buy a TV, would you want to buy it when it is in the middle of the price range, neither priced cheap or expensive compared to historical prices? ...or would you be keener to buy it at a really cheap price? the banks/market are no different
  • #1,031
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:40am Dec 21, 2012 2:40am
Very slow open, GU range within 40 mins of open is 6 pips.......

Think I'm gonna wrap this up and get some shopping done.
  • #1,032
  • Dec 21, 2012 4:12am Dec 21, 2012 4:12am
Hi,

USDCHF .... @open long PO above demand...SL at BE now lets see if Price move higher today

Cheers
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  • #1,033
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:07am Dec 21, 2012 5:07am
Quoting C-12
I used to get tons of BE stopouts. Very annoying but it helped my psychology by avoiding losses.

I do this far less these days since most trades price with often come back to entry before moving on. I don't trade with the auto BE on anymore.
Higher percentage of winning trades, but then the losers take their pound of flesh rather than breaking even. Would you say that overall profitability has improved by making this change?
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #1,034
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:20am Dec 21, 2012 5:20am
think this move is going way higher but banking it. stupid early entry too... gotta start taking more care of my entries on m1
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  • #1,035
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:34am Dec 21, 2012 5:34am
Quoting C-12
Fresh short added, taken off M5, watching the london open level (green line)
Hi C-12,
This trade looked a bit bold, as there isn't a clean supply level to the left of that, but it totally worked. Do you find yourself developing an intuition or instinct about when a market is ready to turn and how far it is likely to run?
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #1,036
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:34am Dec 21, 2012 5:34am
Quoting Trainman
Higher percentage of winning trades, but then the losers take their pound of flesh rather than breaking even. Would you say that overall profitability has improved by making this change?
Yeah and I definitely have far fewer blow out days now. I very rarely hit my daily loss limit. I'm trading with smaller position size (no longer full standard lots) but running the trades further now. If I get a string of losses they don't hurt the account as much so it's also less stressful.

I actually rarely look at the M1 these days since I was finding most of the best levels lined up with an M5 level anyway.

I'm quite comfortable holding trades, here's my current EU and I'm very relaxed with this trade.
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  • #1,037
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:46am Dec 21, 2012 5:46am
Quoting mrhb30jr
Hi,

USDCHF .... @open long PO above demand...SL at BE now lets see if Price move higher today

Cheers
Let's hope so since my EU trade will bring positive pips. I'm also in this on my practice swing account (which will be live early next year).
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  • #1,038
  • Edited 6:10am Dec 21, 2012 5:49am | Edited 6:10am
I'll post some more swing trades. These are purely practice.

GBPNZD +624 pips
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  • #1,039
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:51am Dec 21, 2012 5:51am
NZDDUSD + 200
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  • #1,040
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:54am Dec 21, 2012 5:54am
NZDJPY +159
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