Any help with AUDJPY? | Forex Factory

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Any help with AUDJPY?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 10:56pm Dec 18, 2012 8:06pm | Edited 10:56pm
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
  • #2
  • Dec 19, 2012 2:20am Dec 19, 2012 2:20am
Quoting thunderr
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
SELL in zona 89 -91 area for sell (long term) , wait for h4 ,daily and weekly candle confirm.May Jesus Bless You
  • #3
  • Dec 19, 2012 5:05am Dec 19, 2012 5:05am
Quoting thunderr
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
what prices are you long and short
  • #4
  • Dec 19, 2012 6:42am Dec 19, 2012 6:42am
Quoting thunderr
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
Flatten it entirely.

Instead of trying to make the loss back, spend time thinking about what got you into such a position in the first place and work on avoiding it in the future.

A trader is someone who manages risk and makes execution decisions. By giving that up to the forum, asking for entry/exit signals and refusing to realize a loss you got yourself into, you've stopped being a trader and have just opened your account up to the will of the market.

And the market cares not if you make money.
FXGears.com
  • #5
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:07am Dec 19, 2012 8:07am
Quoting thunderr
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
I can try to help. 3 questions?
1. What is the distance between the long and short in pips?
2. If you closed one position is it in profit now?
3. Can you still close part of the lots, for example if you have 2 lots can you close 1 lot and keep 1 or are you at the broker minimum for lots?
  • #6
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:08am Dec 19, 2012 8:08am
Quoting PoundTrader
what prices are you long and short
short at 83.93 and short at 85.09
long at 88.70
thanks for trying to help me its the first time i play crosses and it destroyed me i want at least to get back some of my money i dont want profit all i nedd to leave it with less loss thanks again
  • #7
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:19am Dec 19, 2012 8:19am
Quoting nanningbob
I can try to help. 3 questions?
1. What is the distance between the long and short in pips?
2. If you closed one position is it in profit now?
3. Can you still close part of the lots, for example if you have 2 lots can you close 1 lot and keep 1 or are you at the broker minimum for lots?


short at 83.93 and short at 85.09
long at 88.70
  • #8
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:38am Dec 19, 2012 8:38am
Quoting thunderr
short at 83.93 and short at 85.09
long at 88.70
OK if you have the patience and margin you can get out of the mess.

First the fundamentals. Japan is 230% debt to GDP ratio and has basically borrowed all of their wealth. They have borrowed practically everyone's retirement and put them in govt. debt. I dont see them able to sell debt bonds to the outside world and there is no way they can pay that debt off. So they are left with one weapon, debasement of currency. I dont see price getting anywhere near the prices you have the sells at. SOOOOOO you have to buy at a higher lot size than your sell size. So lets say you have 2 lot sells and 2 lot buys. Grab the next good buy setup and add 2 more buy lots. This way for every 1 dollar you are losing you are gaining 2 dollars. Eventually you will have enough profit to close one losing trade and then you can go to a lesser risk trade with smaller lots and eliminate the second on. Or wait out until both are cleared. I think if you read what is going on there, the newly elected officials are going to print YEN to get their debt ratio down and also start paying back the money their aging population is going to need in retirement. So going short YEN and long AUD and holding is what you are going to see the big traders and banks do for a while. Can you get the 300-400 pips you will need to get out of this mess over the next several weeks or month. I believe you can.

Do I believe you will see a retracement back to your old prices? Probably not any time soon and possibly for years to come. That is why all the yen pairs are going down into the toilet. So protect your buy position if there is a sell off at the end of the year for profit takers but the long term direction will be the depreciation of the yen which I believe will be greater than the AUD. The exception to this analysis will be if the AUD does a bigger interest rate drop in January or February, then you may see some recovery then. Good Luck.
  • #9
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:51am Dec 19, 2012 8:51am
Quoting thunderr
short at 83.93 and short at 85.09
long at 88.70
Here is the monthly chart. I believe fundamental weakness of the JPY will push price beyond this line. When it does i will enter my buy position. You will want to enter your second buy position above this line also and play for a break even trade. I hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jpy.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #10
  • Dec 19, 2012 12:14pm Dec 19, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting nanningbob
Here is the monthly chart. I believe fundamental weakness of the JPY will push price beyond this line. When it does i will enter my buy position. You will want to enter your second buy position above this line also and play for a break even trade. I hope this helps.
you mean that i enter a buy position under 88.56 ???? but my problem i cant do any position my marjin is full or i will close one sell and replace it by a buy position ???? do u agree ??
  • #11
  • Dec 19, 2012 4:38pm Dec 19, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting thunderr
you mean that i enter a buy position under 88.56 ???? but my problem i cant do any position my marjin is full or i will close one sell and replace it by a buy position ???? do u agree ??
Yeah that is what you will have to do. The one thing I try to teach traders is not to trade with such big lots. You give yourself no room if you make a mistake to correct it. Basically if you trade with big lot sizes you have to trade with a stop loss. If you are going to trade without a stop loss you have to trade much smaller lots or hedge much sooner so you can get out of the hedge easier. Right now you have no room for a mistake. Your entrance and exits on these trades will have to be pinpoint accurate or you will get into more trouble. The other problem you face is its Christmas and New Year Holiday and most traders and business transactions are done for the year. The market can be very erratic at times because of lack of liquidity. I quit trading for the year about a week ago and wont start again until January after the markets really start up again. I will try to help you but if this was me I would wait to see if price does go above this resistance line before entering my buy. If you get a downward movement you maybe able to reduce your loses some. This time of the year is really tough to trade.
  • #12
  • Dec 20, 2012 3:41am Dec 20, 2012 3:41am
Quoting nanningbob
Yeah that is what you will have to do. The one thing I try to teach traders is not to trade with such big lots. You give yourself no room if you make a mistake to correct it. Basically if you trade with big lot sizes you have to trade with a stop loss. If you are going to trade without a stop loss you have to trade much smaller lots or hedge much sooner so you can get out of the hedge easier. Right now you have no room for a mistake. Your entrance and exits on these trades will have to be pinpoint accurate or you will get into more trouble. The...

thanks man i really need ur help anw when find something new let me know thanks again
  • #13
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:44am Dec 21, 2012 2:44am
News story and why I believe you have a very good chance of price going up and helping you recover your loss.


In another move meant to bolster Japan's standing inside and out of Japan, Abe promised a large-scale supplementary budget to kick-start the country’s anemic economy almost immediately.
The markets responded positively to the news, with shares trading at an eight-month high on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened internationally -- the country's strong currency has put the country’s export sector at a significant disadvantage internationally.
  • #14
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:56am Dec 21, 2012 11:56am
Quoting nanningbob
News story and why I believe you have a very good chance of price going up and helping you recover your loss.


In another move meant to bolster Japan's standing inside and out of Japan, Abe promised a large-scale supplementary budget to kick-start the country’s anemic economy almost immediately.
The markets responded positively to the news, with shares trading at an eight-month high on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened internationally -- the country's strong currency has put the country’s export sector at a significant...


you mean that audjpy will continu his down trend ????
  • #15
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:47pm Dec 21, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting thunderr
you mean that audjpy will continu his down trend ????
It is bouncing off of the monthly resistance line, during Christmas, New Year season it can do anything. Why I dont trade now there is very little business activity between countries, big traders have gone home, market can be totally dead and suddenly jump all over the place for no apparent reason. Relax unless your margin is being eaten up by swap costs. I trade small lots and low leverage. I can relax and let a trade sit until I see the market I want and trade it. I dont think you will get what you need until the new year. Gotta go will write more later.
  • #16
  • Dec 22, 2012 12:28am Dec 22, 2012 12:28am
Quoting nanningbob
It is bouncing off of the monthly resistance line, during Christmas, New Year season it can do anything. Why I dont trade now there is very little business activity between countries, big traders have gone home, market can be totally dead and suddenly jump all over the place for no apparent reason. Relax unless your margin is being eaten up by swap costs. I trade small lots and low leverage. I can relax and let a trade sit until I see the market I want and trade it. I dont think you will get what you need until the new year. Gotta go will write...
thats it am waiting till after vacation and new year to see and there is no swap charged thats why i can wait
anw i wishh you a merry christams my friend and hope next year will be more successful than this year
  • #17
  • Dec 28, 2012 6:18pm Dec 28, 2012 6:18pm
You have dug yourself into a hole by getting deeper into a trade which has gone horribly against you, clearly you have lost control of it and need to get out. The more you try to fight it the worse you are going to get hit, so liquidate the whole thing, accept the loss and go back to the drawing board. Jack_Larkin gave you the right advice. Take it.

You really need to learn how to accept risk and take losses if you want to improve. As for nanningbob telling you to keep trading it, trying to dig your way out - I'm not sure if he is making fun of you or if he really believes his crap, either way he is being a cock and you need to ignore his advice. Remaining in the trade, trying to manage it back towards breakeven, is the same as liquidating it and entering a new trade. You said you don't want to profit from it, you just want to get your money back - but getting any of your money back IS a profitable position from where you are right now.

I think you have a major problem with trading psychology. You obviously did not define and accept the risk before entering the trade, which is one of the most important aspects of trading. Something to work on. Good luck.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #18
  • Dec 28, 2012 8:15pm Dec 28, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting thunderr
anyone can help me, am stuck with AUDJPY I WANT TO KNOW WHEN TO SHORT AND WHEN TO LONG AM HEDGING IT RIGHT NOW ???????
Close your short and long positions and move on. Take it as a good lesson, so you won't repeat that mistake again.

Mistakes made:

1. Entered a short without clear exit
2. Added position to an existing losing position

3. Entered a long for what? Numb the pain?
Fear prevent possibilities, and so does Greed
  • #19
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:09pm Dec 28, 2012 10:09pm
1. Buy time machine

2. Go to Oct. 17, 2012

3. Buy at 81.80 as per signal

4. Sell at 89.80 or hold for more upside as predicted by Bob

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0001.jpg Size: 108 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #20
  • Dec 29, 2012 4:58am Dec 29, 2012 4:58am
[quote=numbnuts;6327140]You have dug yourself into a hole by getting deeper into a trade which has gone horribly against you, clearly you have lost control of it and need to get out. The more you try to fight it the worse you are going to get hit, so liquidate the whole thing, accept the loss and go back to the drawing board. Jack_Larkin gave you the right advice. Take it. quote]

Does not work. Eventually losses get "accepted" until account is wiped out.
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