Spider's Den

1 hr usdx

eu.. 1 min.. out 92..++20 going bed..

If no HH is made in next 2 hours here comes the reversal. Key levels to watch for now are 2970-3000.

Break of 3000 targets 3020-3030.

Almost completed, the shoulder is being formed. Tomorrow we will know if there is a reversal.

its done, what next? 1.3050 - 80 ? or waiting for a chance to short?
i dont know

doesnt seem to want to go any were.. i stay out

Today I wont be trading that much , we have FOMC statement today, it will be much clearer tomorrow.

3030 has been reached, the first part of the shoulder has been forming, but there is no a clear sign of reversal yet. We might go to 3050-3060.

Dont short this blindly wait for a divergence or any reversal pattern.

Whether USDx will rally later today or not, we will see. That will be the main driver of next movement.

Today late will review my chart
So Far

Good morning guys. As I said picture would be clearer after FOMC. What we have here is a failed H & S pattern around 3010-30, so we can expect some upward continuation. For entry I would suggest waiting for a retrace 3035-3010 if reached. 3060 could be also played out but only on a reversal preferably railway pattern.

Morning channel is 3055-3098.

3120-25 region is good to try for a short.

Fast scalp.

We have Three inside down pattern on H1. Railway pattern on m5 was good for scalp, it MAY be good for another PUSH to 3090 level, but what we have on H1 is Three inside down a bearish pattern. Close below 3052 would confirm the further movement down.

3040 gave an entry to a long side, with 3060 broken now. if 3075 is cleared 3090 should be next target.

10 pip scalp, no confidence, where are the bulls?

Thanks again for the river.
This is my Mt4-chart when looking for an entry.
The trades i do from oanda or RBS broker, there i watch m5 m15 and h1 charts for s&r and TLs

85 touched

The move from 3040 to 3100 is done, so the morning analysis has been valid. Lets see tomorrow

Let us try to really understand the wave structure of the wave from the 2661 low


For me, the movement down from 3126 to 2875 has clearly an impulsive character. The only way to preserve the impulsive nature of the whole move up is to maybe declare a very big ABC-flat as wave blue 4.

The move up from this supposed wave 4 end has clearly impulsive structure/character so far. In so far "in dubio pro reo".

A wave 5 target then would ideally be between 3090, 3122 or 3150. In case of extension up to 3215.

When we have indeed seen such a huge ABC-flat (huge B-wave), then this B-wave may have worked up much of the euphoria, so that wave 5 may only be hardly above this B-wave top, or eventually only a truncated wave 5.


see chart 1


On the second chart you see a scenario, where we solve the impulsive structure of this weeks upward movement as an ABC-flat correction. In this way we are now up in impulsive wave C.

This count would fib exceptionally well. Optimum target for wave C is already reached, and would allow for even 3125 (double top)



Both counts would call for a decline to at least the 2874 region.



Are these bullish counts my favority counts? Hell, no LOL

When you know me long enough you know I am bearish EURUSD.


So how would this last moves fit into a bearish scenario?

see chart 3

The premium area for a red wave 3 down would be rather in the 209 area than in the 25x area because of the deep reaching blue ABC-flat. The 25x are might be the target for green wave 3 eventually (best 2415 so far)


What does speak for short term weakness?

Clearly price has run into resistance and has produced multiple divergences.

On the forced way up over the past days we have left many virgin POC's untouched (Market profile)

I will publish some Market profile charts later.



What does speak for medium term weakness?

The COT data shows, that EURUSD shorts have now a very low number. Such low readings have, in the past, constantly lead to a drop in EURUSD thereafter.


see last picture



All in all: the race between bulls and bears is fairly leveld right now. I find enough counts and data for the bearish case, but I too can see counts for the bullish case. Clearly, when this whole mess transforms to the bullish case, targets of such an up-move would be in the 1.42-1.44 area

But I suspect at the moment that such a bullish move can be made out of such an already EURUSD bullish sentiment of investors.

Virgin POC's and market profile

Thanks for your insights mate, much appreciated. As you know I work on intraday-intraweek analysis so midterm and longer term insights are always helpful.