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  • #21
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:12am Dec 12, 2012 1:12am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You don't build a plan. You get experience and everything else falls into place on its own.
Great posts. I agree with them,( not that that matters.)
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #22
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:55am Dec 12, 2012 1:55am
[quote=iulli;6280165]that's a good idea theoretically, but majority here are losers so the result will not be good.

Sad but true!
When all conditions are met - Enter trade - sit back and FRET !!!
  • #23
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:07am Dec 12, 2012 2:07am
[quote=jsf;6284712]
Quoting iulli
that's a good idea theoretically, but majority here are losers so the result will not be good.

Sad but true!
So, in your opinion, how can we build a winner system?
  • #24
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:47am Dec 12, 2012 2:47am
Hello all, my 2 cents here....it s not the system its self that makes you a winner. it s the discipline, the patience, the money management, and your faith in whichever system you follow. That s where the key lays. gl and green pips to all of you
  • #25
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:17am Dec 12, 2012 3:17am
Quoting stormtrader
Hello all, my 2 cents here....it s not the system its self that makes you a winner. it s the discipline, the patience, the money management, and your faith in whichever system you follow. That s where the key lays. gl and green pips to all of you
You are true, in fact the idea is to start with a good, solid, profitable system ( using as base to start 1:1 R:R with 2% capital investment on every trade) and then make it even more profitable by adjusting money management and all other things...
This is my idea to make a system from scratch.
Hope to be clear with my poor english
  • #26
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:22am Dec 12, 2012 5:22am
I've backtested this idea on eurusd and is not bad.
Indicator: fractal
Time frame: daily
For long:
Enter on the open of the candle when a down fractal appears.
SL: on the low of the candle marked with the down fractal
TP: 1:1 r:r

For short do the oppsite

2012 results 68% winner trades

What u think?
  • #27
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:26am Dec 12, 2012 7:26am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You will know when. No one tells you when. Just like anything challenging, you have to keep trying until you figure it. Anyone who drives a car with manual transmission the first several times is going to stall over and over. You keep trying and one day you just don't stall any more. Even then you might stall once in while, but not as frequently. You don't build a plan on how to drive. You just have to do it. And like that you learn.
You are not a constructive contributor.
  • #28
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:18am Dec 12, 2012 8:18am
3 trades on the 9 x 20 ema crossovers. 2 winners and 1 loser. i target 10 pips a day and so closed my trade for profits.

http://i48.tinypic.com/35n8uon.png
  • #29
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:32pm Dec 12, 2012 4:32pm
For those that like longer time frames I plucked this one last night (Aussie time ). The setup is identical to the smaller time frames, even though price would have been trending on the smaller TF it was just a big range on the higher TF.

Volatility was low at 29 pips for a 12H ATR is quite low.
I have a live MT5 account with vantage so I placed the order ( micro ). Unfortunately price missed my order by 0.5 pip. So the trade is not entered.

Now this can get tricky when this happens. Sometimes I have observed that if price does not hit your indicated profit target and comes back to the entry just to spike out the shorts it will be a nice trade.

However if price goes directly to the profit target and then consolidates or bounces from there I will typically cancel the order as depending upon the way it moves it could just be lining up for a even higher move.

Again these are my observations, 4 or more visits to the same area especially if one comes from a small retracement means it wants to break down the wall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h12-vantagefx-pty-ltd-2.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #30
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:50pm Dec 12, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting stormtrader
Hello all, my 2 cents here....it s not the system its self that makes you a winner. it s the discipline, the patience, the money management, and your faith in whichever system you follow. That s where the key lays. gl and green pips to all of you
I know what you are saying here but I have to disagree with "it's not the system". You still have to have something that works. The other stuff ENSURES that it works for you.

This thread is about that portion of the equation along with money management. Discipline and patience and faith is up to the individual after we have worked out a good framework to start from.
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #31
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:51pm Dec 12, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting lucariga
You are true, in fact the idea is to start with a good, solid, profitable system ( using as base to start 1:1 R:R with 2% capital investment on every trade) and then make it even more profitable by adjusting money management and all other things...
This is my idea to make a system from scratch.
Hope to be clear with my poor english
Correct!
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #32
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:00pm Dec 12, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting lucariga
I've backtested this idea on eurusd and is not bad.
Indicator: fractal
Time frame: daily
For long:
Enter on the open of the candle when a down fractal appears.
SL: on the low of the candle marked with the down fractal
TP: 1:1 r:r
For short do the oppsite
2012 results 68% winner trades
What u think?
What is your thinking behind this strategy?

68% sound good. Is there some way of confirming this for the readers?

Any ideas on a way of filtering it a little to increase the % to 70? Stochs, MACD, MAs?
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #33
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:14pm Dec 12, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting marshalmax
What is your thinking behind this strategy?

68% sound good. Is there some way of confirming this for the readers?

Any ideas on a way of filtering it a little to increase the % to 70? Stochs, MACD, MAs?

Stochs, MACD, MAs...........Great to know this belief is still powerful. OK i depart your thread. Anybody interested in the Double Top, Double Bottom, concept and wishes to explore it further please pm me.

Ciao
  • #34
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:43pm Dec 12, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting junkone
3 trades on the 9 x 20 ema crossovers. 2 winners and 1 loser. i target 10 pips a day and so closed my trade for profits.
http://i48.tinypic.com/35n8uon.png
Would you care to expand on this?
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #35
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:46pm Dec 12, 2012 6:46pm
Oz. Where r u in Australia? I am in Brisbane.

Don't leave. I am keen to explore these patterns.

In this thread I need readers to explore their own and others ideas along with me as I cannot explore all suggestions so please do not take it as lack of response or acceptance when an idea is not taken on board.
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #36
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:51pm Dec 12, 2012 6:51pm
So this is what I have been working on for a while.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post6288320

When a full candle forms above or below the 6MA, and this coincides with where the 21MA is, and recent price action has also coincided in the same direction, then I am taking the trade. The idea behind this is that when a new trend occurs, no matter how large or small it is, certain momentum and market moves occur and I am trying to spot them early enough to ride small waves and not just look for big ones. My belief is that under the current skittery market conditions we have and based on how instant and global it all is and considering how much automated trading now goes on, I think we are less likely to see big trends like we used to and we should instead be working on identifying the waves of the market as minor trends to ride for profit rather than waiting around to find a large one to ride. Just my opinion though.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-i...13ridingGU.png
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #37
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:53pm Dec 12, 2012 6:53pm
[quote=lucariga;6284751]
Quoting jsf

So, in your opinion, how can we build a winner system?
starting point:
- any system that delivers winnings after 55 % with a rate of R:R 1/1
- then keep doing that as often as possible (more trades - edge is more clear - more money in the account)

Now most people will say they have a winning rate system but the million dollar question is how can you prove it? How can you now for sure you are not just lucky? Scientifically you need lots of trades, maybe over 10.000, and then you know if you have an edge or not.. but we never have the chance to make so many trades in real life before following a system with a live account.
  • #38
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:04pm Dec 12, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting marshalmax
So this is what I have been working on for a while.


...certain momentum ... occur ..
spot on - An edge can be delivered by momentum

at the beginning of my voyage in forex world I was paying attention to so most strongest and fastest trends following all pairs available time frame m15 and I was going in the same direction as of the candle developing picking up 5 -10 pips. it works 90% of the time and results were very fast and amazing...

The only problems is the stop loss. Where do you put it? Where do you realize that actually it was a fake momentum, wrong direction? Solve this problem and you have a system.
  • #39
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:11pm Dec 12, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting stormtrader
Hello all, my 2 cents here....it s not the system its self that makes you a winner. it s the discipline, the patience, the money management, and your faith in whichever system you follow. That s where the key lays. gl and green pips to all of you
It is the system. then everything else..
  • #40
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:29pm Dec 12, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting marshalmax
Oz. Where r u in Australia? I am in Brisbane.

Don't leave. I am keen to explore these patterns.

In this thread I need readers to explore their own and others ideas along with me as I cannot explore all suggestions so please do not take it as lack of response or acceptance when an idea is not taken on board.

Yes I'm in Melbourne, your concept is just plain trend following. Now don't take this the wrong way but your chart which looks to me like a FXCM chart is wrong in your interpretation.

1) Long signal is wrong ( price is trapped between 2 ma's, candle is weak, price can do anything at that stage)

2)1st retrace new trend confirm wrong. ( The candle that broke through both MA's was the signal for higher prices ( commonly called break out )
In pure early trend following a buy stop would be placed above that candle for entry. New trend confirm would be the second bullish candle that punched through the consolidation.

3) 2nd retrace short- This is wrong and actually this is classic noob rules. short the 1st sign of weakness at support.
That is really where Institutional buying begins on that red candle you circled. If people were happy with that being a new trend they buy there.

I don't like trend following, plenty of solid systems all ready exist on that subject. If that is your thing you should check out Ichimoku indicator. It astounds me how the cloud and kijun sen rule price action. If price is stuck or about to reverse you can be sure that on some time frame it is leaning on one of these indicators.
I spent a long time on that and you are just dodging bullets and trying to find little gaps of where price may go very fidgety.
As you know trends occur only 30% of time. Range is the rest of time.
As you may or may not be aware also trend followers have worst win loss ratio. They make money by letting winners run.

On the other hand the norm is cop a lot of losers then get out with small winner. No good. With no fixed targets as trend followers will teach you got to be watching all the time.
I prefer to find setup, measure risk, put in stop and tgt. If tgt hits I make money if stop hits I lose. I don't need or want to be watching once I'm in the trade candle by candle like a trend follower does.
Micro managing your trade as a non professional will just lead to big trouble and emotional decisions. I've been through that roller coaster too often i'm trying to escape it.
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